Professional Sportsbetting

[coach belly]

if I lost everything and was suddenly broke, I would/could just go make more money. I've already proved that.

I'm fairly certain that if I were motivated enough, I could make $1,000 with no bankroll.

I'm fairly certain that you've proven my point...

The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.

The money you pursue enslaves you.

It's not surprising that you don't believe in a soul, or even understand what that means.

You're entire worth is predicated on a soulless participation in a solved game, without an opponent.

No thought, no opinion, minimal effort...just mindless button-pushing like some rat in a cage in search of a treat.

It's likely that you wouldn't have any relationships if not for the money you chase.

[kewlJ]

Boz is a straight shooter, and I respect his opinion.

One would have to ask him to clarify, but it's of my opinion that his opinion on all these sports tout/investor/verification Publications is all a big scammy pile of BS.

Didn't we just have someone on here who you touted as knowledgeable regarding tipsters and dipsters who ended up saying it was all bullshit? And then of course you guys claimed it was a KJ souckpuppet which was clearly not true?

I would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?

[kewlJ]

Red says, "Bonuses don't/won't last."

25 years later, and then


Sports bonuses will be gone when betting on sports is gone.

I have been at the little sports betting bonus play that I have been doing 2 years now. And Yes, Redeitz said at the time it couldn't last and bonuses would dry up ect.

So I started with only 4 off shore books. In the 2 years, I have lost 2, one I dropped after they stiffed me on a bonus after the fact and one I dropped when the cut my future bonuses to almost nothing (nothing profitable anyway). And in that time I have added 3 new books to replace them, currently working off 5 books.

So that is a total of 7 books I have dealt with in my 2 years. Out of what 5000? 10,000? I am maybe .1% of the way through.


Just imagine if I wanted to go big and play a bunch of books?

[redietz]

Boz is a straight shooter, and I respect his opinion.

One would have to ask him to clarify, but it's of my opinion that his opinion on all these sports tout/investor/verification Publications is all a big scammy pile of BS.

Didn't we just have someone on here who you touted as knowledgeable regarding tipsters and dipsters who ended up saying it was all bullshit? And then of course you guys claimed it was a KJ souckpuppet which was clearly not true?

I would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?

This is laughable. Axelwolf and kewlJ continually express strong opinions, and make declarative statements, on subjects they literally know nothing about. I guess that's what "APs" do. They figure the "EV" on all manner of things, even completely inappropriate non-random events, and then puff up and make declarative statements.

It's a joke. Axelwolf is terrible at this stuff. He doesn't remember clearly, doesn't actually quote anything, paraphrases everything, and yet spouts declarations based on no quotes, bad and inaccurate paraphrasing, no actual data, sloppy ballpark "I think he said that" or "IIRC." You can't fake your way to being actually knowledgeable regarding stuff you wish was A but is actually B.

Can you imagine if I or anyone made idiot comments regarding blackjack or machine play?

There is zero evidence for anything kewlJ does. Axelwolf admits he's doing all the things that can result in sports books hijacking your money with what is now just legal cause. The creme de la creme of the AP world.

[accountinquestion]

oooh shit I was drinking.. Hit reply to a post. Starting getting into it.. "This guy is a retard" .. then I realized it was Coach Belly and I remembered something I was told.

Responding to Coach Belly is a losing game.

But a game that is also solved.

I hit Back. WTF AIQ?

[kewlJ]

This is laughable. Axelwolf and kewlJ continually express strong opinions, and make declarative statements, on subjects they literally know nothing about. I guess that's what "APs" do. They figure the "EV" on all manner of things, even completely inappropriate non-random events, and then puff up and make declarative statements.

The only thing laughable about this situation is YOU Bob Dietz! For some reason you told us all for a decade how you were a professional sports bettor, when you were a "tout". A tout is NOT a professional sports bettor. How you are not embarrassed to the point that you haven't disappeared after the Kim Lee situation is beyond me.

And STOP using the term "EV". You don't know the meaning of the term and have lost the privilege of using it.

[accountinquestion]

Boz is a straight shooter, and I respect his opinion.

One would have to ask him to clarify, but it's of my opinion that his opinion on all these sports tout/investor/verification Publications is all a big scammy pile of BS.

Didn't we just have someone on here who you touted as knowledgeable regarding tipsters and dipsters who ended up saying it was all bullshit? And then of course you guys claimed it was a KJ souckpuppet which was clearly not true?

I would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?

This is laughable. Axelwolf and kewlJ continually express strong opinions, and make declarative statements, on subjects they literally know nothing about. I guess that's what "APs" do. They figure the "EV" on all manner of things, even completely inappropriate non-random events, and then puff up and make declarative statements.

It's a joke. Axelwolf is terrible at this stuff. He doesn't remember clearly, doesn't actually quote anything, paraphrases everything, and yet spouts declarations based on no quotes, bad and inaccurate paraphrasing, no actual data, sloppy ballpark "I think he said that" or "IIRC." You can't fake your way to being actually knowledgeable regarding stuff you wish was A but is actually B.

Can you imagine if I or anyone made idiot comments regarding blackjack or machine play?

There is zero evidence for anything kewlJ does. Axelwolf admits he's doing all the things that can result in sports books hijacking your money with what is now just legal cause. The creme de la creme of the AP world.

It isn't just generalist gamblers who use EV. THere are plenty of specializsed sports bettors. They all use EV.

The thing I feel you don't get is that people smart enough to really beat this shit understood good and well that EV has some sort of subjectivity. You on the other hand don't realize the obviousness of it all. The other guys understand all the implications and you have a hard-on to tell yourself that you're special for understanding what everyone else in the room understood from the get-go.

[accountinquestion]

ouch.

like I said I've been drinking fellas. Waiting to go to the bar again. Tonights one of those nights but need to hold up a bit.

[coach belly]

Responding to Coach Belly is a losing game.

Everything is a losing game for you, rummy.

But I prefer that you not respond to me.

And since most of what you post is nonsense, I prefer that you not post at all.

Now go away, fag, we don't want any drunk fags around here.

Thank you for your consideration in this matter.

[accountinquestion]

giggle

[smurgerburger]

It's unclear what redietz means by random vs non random events.

If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random. Even if bribed players were attempting to throw a game its outcome would not be strictly certain, especially a team sport.

So I assume what he means is not random vs non random but something like normal vs subject to exogenous variables (meaning variables that cannot be accurately incorporated into a model because they are too infrequent or otherwise not measurable).

Not going to bother arguing whether this is a valid point, I just want to know whether it is the point he wishes to make. Because he seems to alternate between "EV cannot be used for sports because sports are not random" and "people should say 'my opinion of the EV' rather than 'EV' because the former implies greater precision than is accurately possible".

The other point I would like clarified is what this stuff is about books (presumably US books since otherwise it's nothing new) now having the legal ground to "hijack your money".

I don't think the point is particularly important to any of the arguments here since nobody claimed that bonus whoring is without risks in the first place.

But regardless of risk what is Dietz actually referring to? The last anecdote I heard of along these lines was someone won big in the Midwest betting repeatedly at kiosks, I guess using multiple cards to get around the betting limits.

Anyway in that case (which was a local gaming commission decision, not sure if it has gone to court) CET voided his bet after it had already won, effectively free rolling him.

Obviously bad for him but not the same as seizing his funds and also not something that would necessarily occur in other jurisdictions (on the ground that the casinos can't legally free rolling).

ETA - Actually I don't think that involved multiple cards, just alleged structuring (but actually just trying to avoid getting limited).

[AxelWolf]

if I lost everything and was suddenly broke, I would/could just go make more money. I've already proved that.

I'm fairly certain that if I were motivated enough, I could make $1,000 with no bankroll.

I'm fairly certain that you've proven my point...

The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.

The money you pursue enslaves you.

It's not surprising that you don't believe in a soul, or even understand what that means.

You're entire worth is predicated on a soulless participation in a solved game, without an opponent.

No thought, no opinion, minimal effort...just mindless button-pushing like some rat in a cage in search of a treat.

It's likely that you wouldn't have any relationships if not for the money you chase.

More Philosophical BS from you, as there isn't an exact meaning.

[kewlJ]

The other point I would like clarified is what this stuff is about books (presumably US books since otherwise it's nothing new) now having the legal ground to "hijack your money".

THIS doesn't sound right to me in regards to U.S. land based casinos, including the "kid" that Colorado book stole his money. I will wait to hear what some of the legal experts think.

I mean if a player is banned from a casino....for whatever reason and sneaks back in and hits a jackpot, the casino has to pay the jackpot. They can arrest the player for trespassing, but it is my understanding that they have to pay that jackpot. Anything else is stealing. This would be the same situation.

You might have to get a lawyer and fight them, and if you do be sure to include legal costs as part of the damages, but I don't think any casino commission in this country or and judicial system is going to say it is ok for the casinos to steal that money. And casinos writing rules and that is all they are is rules...NOT law that says they can....doesn't mean they can. Casinos throughout time have always tried to get away with illegal shit.

Now off shore? That is another matter. We understand the risk when you play off shore or even in another country.

[MDawg]

Yer not only an inveterate, compulsive, pathological liar, yer an imbecile as well, hey hey.

[coach belly]

If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random.

That's ridiculous.

Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?

Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?

What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?

We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.

Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?

[coach belly]

there isn't an exact meaning.

Concepts, qualities, standards and constructs must be incomprehensible to a cretin like you.

[smurgerburger]

If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random.

That's ridiculous.

Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?

Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?

What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?

We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.

Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?

Yes, all of those things are random in the sense of "subject to the math of random events" or however redietz put it.

A perfect coin that is 50/50 to land heads or tails lands randomly. So does a skewed coin that lands 99/1 heads.

Or am I mistaken?

[Don Perignom]

More Philosophical BS from you, as there isn't an exact meaning.

Am I catching this correctly? Belly has 5000 posts calling APs liars, and now he pivots to: APs are unfulfilled because the money comes too easily.

This forum needs a default ignore list.

[redietz]

If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random.

That's ridiculous.

Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?

Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?

What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?

We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.

Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?

Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.

It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.

I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.

It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.

You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every...single...play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.

[smurgerburger]

If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random.

That's ridiculous.

Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?

Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?

What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?

We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.

Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?

Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.

It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.

I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.

It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.

You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every single play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.

What is the meaning you understand by "random" when you write of "the math of random events"?