Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[Alan Mendelson]

For you, maybe, but only because you've hit two royals with the 10. But you do play an awful lot so we will never know if it's helped or hurt you. For my sister, definitely, because she may never play again. But not ridiculous for me, since it's a play that's made me money over the years. You see, people who immerse themselves in theory instead of reality always have trouble seeing the balance sheet for what it is when all is said and done. That's why I teach players that each casino visit is and will always be, totally unrelated to any that have already occurred, or any that have yet to come. Funny thing....That's the same for any given hand also.

Please explain, in detail, WHY you don't hold the ten?

[Spock]

Depending on what the progressive amount was, holding the a/10 may have been the proper play.

[Alan Mendelson]

Depending on what the progressive amount was, holding the a/10 may have been the proper play.

The progressive jackpot was not big enough to warrant holding the ten. Perhaps Arcimede$ will be able to tell us just how big a jackpot has to be to justify holding A-10.

[slingshot]

I'll always hold the ten. Even on the artt strategy, I've come to the top denomination and many times hit 3 10's by holding a 10 with the high card and it's sent me back to the lowest denom. Once on artt, I hit 4 10's. Depending on the game, 4 10's equal 4 Q's. Twice while teaching my wife, we hit Royals by holding the J 10. Maybe it's a woman thing.

[Alan Mendelson]

Twice while teaching my wife, we hit Royals by holding the J 10. Maybe it's a woman thing.

Holding Jack Ten Suited is correct strategy.

Still waiting for Rob to explain why he wouldn't hold Q-ten suited??

[Vegas Vic]

I was dealt Ah Th and following correct strategy I did not hold the Ten. You know what happened: the first three cards on the draw were the Jh Qh Kh for the royal... if I had held that ten.

I hope this is tongue in cheek. EXTREMELY unlikely that if you had taken even an extra nanosecond to hold the ten that those same 3 cards would have shown up on the draw. Thinking about such things leads to self doubt about your correct decision and is the bane of poor players everywhere.

[Alan Mendelson]

I hope this is tongue in cheek. EXTREMELY unlikely that if you had taken even an extra nanosecond to hold the ten that those same 3 cards would have shown up on the draw. Thinking about such things leads to self doubt about your correct decision and is the bane of poor players everywhere.

That actually depends on the model of the machine. It could have been one of the older models where the replacement cards were drawn in sequence from the "top of the deck."

While I followed correct strategy in this case, had I held A-10 I very well could have hit the royal even with the new continuous shuffle.

So, there is nothing "tongue in cheek" about it. I did not hold the ten and you can only wonder what would have happened if I did?

[slingshot]

That actually depends on the model of the machine. It could have been one of the older models where the replacement cards were drawn in sequence from the "top of the deck."

While I followed correct strategy in this case, had I held A-10 I very well could have hit the royal even with the new continuous shuffle.

So, there is nothing "tongue in cheek" about it. I did not hold the ten and you can only wonder what would have happened if I did?

And even so, you STILL could have hit 4 A's or 4 10's. Am I making any sense here?

[Alan Mendelson]

And even so, you STILL could have hit 4 A's or 4 10's. Am I making any sense here?

We're way ahead of you.

The reason why you dont hold A-10 is because in DDB quad aces is so valuable.

You would not hold the single ten along with the ace hoping for quad tens. However, there was this one time at Bellagio when I was playing DDB and I was dealt AATTX (x is a insignificant card) and following correct strategy I held the pair of Aces. And on the draw came the other two tens.

Yes, anything can happen but you can't play for "anything to happen." You have to make the right choice and hope that your right choice will pay off. That's all you can do.

[Rob.Singer]

Holding Jack Ten Suited is correct strategy.

Still waiting for Rob to explain why he wouldn't hold Q-ten suited??

It's simple if you play with my approach--which is a winning approach--and it will probably be way too tough for you to understand. I've forgotten the stats on this, but getting three cards to fill out a royal is not an everyday occurrence. But getting a high pair, two pair, trips, quads and full houses is. None of my strategies depends on or ever even needs royals to deliver winning sessions. I entirely ignored them when I developed each strategy. Whether they ever come or not is irrelevant. Win goals are all that are important, and they deny greed. If and when royals come are gravy, nothing more. Holding a suited 10 is usually asking for a losing and disappointing hand. And while in most games holding the suited 10 yields a very slightly higher EV over just the face card, it also yields many less winning hands overall.

[slingshot]

Still don't get it.You get to draw 3 cards. You can still get quads, full houses,flushes, trips, two pair, etc. and STILL have a chance at the Royal. And if you're playing short term, how often will you get the chance?

[Alan Mendelson]

It's simple if you play with my approach--which is a winning approach--and it will probably be way too tough for you to understand. I've forgotten the stats on this, but getting three cards to fill out a royal is not an everyday occurrence.

This is why no one believes you... because now you've forgotten the stats. If it were my strategy I would have the stats committed to memory, just as I have the stats about my TV show and cost per thousand and audience demographics committed to memory.

You say drawing three cards to a royal is not an everyday experience, but holding queen only and drawing three queens is also not an everyday experience.

And holding Q-Ten also gives you the chance for a full house, and two-pair, and three of a kind, and a straight, and a flush... and yes, even quads.

Holding Q-Ten does not preclude you from having a winning session Rob.

Once again, you fail to justify what you are saying.

And what's this?

Still don't get it.You get to draw 3 cards. You can still get quads, full houses,flushes, trips, two pair, etc. and STILL have a chance at the Royal. And if you're playing short term, how often will you get the chance?

Your own disciple questioning you, Rob???

[arcimede$]

Here's a few statistics that might help people. When holding AT (or QT) you have on one chance to hit 4 aces and one chance to hit 4 tens. There are 16,215 possible 3 card draws. So, only a 1 in 16,215 chance of hitting 4 aces (the same as hitting a RF). Holding just the ace allows for 3 aces and any of the other 44 cards to be drawn. That is 44 chances out of 178,365 or about 1 in 4054. That is 4 times better. In addition, you can draw quads in any of the ranks where you did not discard one of the cards. That provides another 8 possible quads vs. the one quad for the tens. All of this is taken into account by the ER of the various holds. The reason a single ace is held in optimal play is that the total return of all the possible draws is maximized.

[Alan Mendelson]

Here's a few statistics that might help people. When holding AT (or QT) you have on one chance to hit 4 aces and one chance to hit 4 tens. There are 16,215 possible 3 card draws. So, only a 1 in 16,215 chance of hitting 4 aces (the same as hitting a RF). Holding just the ace allows for 3 aces and any of the other 44 cards to be drawn. That is 44 chances out of 178,365 or about 1 in 4054. That is 4 times better. In addition, you can draw quads in any of the ranks where you did not discard one of the cards. That provides another 8 possible quads vs. the one quad for the tens. All of this is taken into account by the ER of the various holds. The reason a single ace is held in optimal play is that the total return of all the possible draws is maximized.

Thank you, Arc.

[slingshot]

Here's a few statistics that might help people. When holding AT (or QT) you have on one chance to hit 4 aces and one chance to hit 4 tens. There are 16,215 possible 3 card draws. So, only a 1 in 16,215 chance of hitting 4 aces (the same as hitting a RF). Holding just the ace allows for 3 aces and any of the other 44 cards to be drawn. That is 44 chances out of 178,365 or about 1 in 4054. That is 4 times better. In addition, you can draw quads in any of the ranks where you did not discard one of the cards. That provides another 8 possible quads vs. the one quad for the tens. All of this is taken into account by the ER of the various holds. The reason a single ace is held in optimal play is that the total return of all the possible draws is maximized.

Makes sense. 2 quads vs. multiple quads possible. Thanks.

[regnis]

I never get to post a picture of a big VP win because I really never get any. But congrats to me on a $43,000 pick 6 today at gulfstream. No way to take a picture since all my bets are done on-line but that is in addition to last week's $9,200 pick 6. On a little roll.

[Alan Mendelson]

I never get to post a picture of a big VP win because I really never get any. But congrats to me on a $43,000 pick 6 today at gulfstream. No way to take a picture since all my bets are done on-line but that is in addition to last week's $9,200 pick 6. On a little roll.

Congratulations on those. Were you the only winner with the $43,000 payoff or were there other tickets?

[dannyj]

Regnis,
Thats awesome! When we lived in san diego we used to go to del mar every weekend during the meet but the best I ever did was 5 out of 6 on the pk six. Congrats again.

[regnis]

Congratulations on those. Were you the only winner with the $43,000 payoff or were there other tickets?

Gulfstream has what they call the Rainbow Pick 6. In an ordinary pick 6, any one or more people that hit all 6 share the pool. In the Rainbow, you have to have the only ticket to get the jackpot (which is now up to 5 million). If there are more than 1 winner, then 60% of the amount that went into the pool that day is paid out to those winners as a consolation. The other 40% goes into the pool and carries over. Those 40% carryovers have pushed the pool to 5 million for a single winner. Last year there was a 3 million dollar single winner.

On Saturday, there was one live ticket with number 2 in the last race that would have been a single. I was live with 4 horses but none would have been a single. My four payoffs were the 43,000 on the one that won and 1 other horse. I also was live for 60,000 and 100,000 on my other horses. It is almost impossible to hit a single now because the big money players are in. But I hope to keep cashing these consolations. Last year I caught consolations of $44,000, $12,000, and 11, 000.

[regnis]

Thanks Danny