ASM revisited again!

[accountinquestion]

Because it is the same whether VP or slots. Millions of dollars in total Free play played through. You guys want to break off a small piece and make a big deal about a hit. What about all the time we didn't get a big hit playing through FP, maybe didn't even get close to expectation for a block of FP.

You are confused, and I suspect you really are, because you don't know much about what I actually did. And yet you have an opinion on it. And awful lot like Dawg and Singer talking about shit they have no clue about. Big surprise. Do they teach that in trolling 101?

I don't feel I am confused. I've actually run cards and churned through FP on a small team. Did the whole process from start to finish. I put a lot of thought in that time to what machines were best for various things. I have no desire to wise-up the swarms of failing carders even though I'd be exceptionally unlikely to do it again. Just out of respect to whomever. You see a lot of dumb shit and all the other operators.

Actually I posted a fanny pack with $100k that was the result of that. It had VCT written on a piece of paper too just to kinda show it was mine. No one cares but just saying. People do have pics that sorta demonstrate something.

No - you don't hit 100k jackpots on normal VP. You'd need what? $25 a spin VP and hit a royal? It is not the same.

The fact is you and your team played very little as far as slots goes. You can't point to all the FP on the video poker that is totally irrelevant and has absolutely no impact on the odds of you hitting a $100k slot jackpot. It is about the math and the fact you played millions of coin-in on VP matters not one bit to the math which directly impacts the odds.

This is great! You are actually sharing a little something real and useful. I just don't have time for it right now. But please remind me to address this next time I am on.

No I'm not sharing anything useful. To the contrary. I'm just explaining why I am likely not confused. I will be honest I don't have the experience you had but I at least had receipts of some sort.

So we have established that you played very little slots. Given the amount your team played FP on slots, hitting 100K+, and the fact it was a relatively small amount you were churning through. The accumulated odds, or the odds of the union of those events just seems exceedingly small. Giving odds is weird because like .. Given a random person, what is the odds they are an AP and .. and ... but we're not looking at random people so I was a bit off in my thinking.

So I guess the better thing would just be to estimate the odds of playing very little FP and hitting a $100k jackpot. Mickey said he has played tons but that isn't what you did. You clearly said you didn't play many slots. Too bad you didn't know this slot machine - maybe we could estimate the odds of hitting that huge top line. I don't recall there being $100k jackpot machines.

I'm still curious the procedure the casino used when he won that $100k. It'd be interesting to have you walk us through it.

[coach belly]

You have to put coin in to generate it.

We all know how freeplay works.

We know that the freeplay generated is based on the total wager, not losses.

The mailer play is +EV because the freeplay generated is multiples of the expected loss wagered to generate it.

But you avoided the question of your cash-out rate.

If you played millions of dollars of freeplay through, how much did you cash out for?

[kewlJ]

Ok, I don't have the answer to the question that CB asked, the cash out rate for only the FP. I thought I might have that information for 2010 and 2011 when I was doing all the VP mailer play myself in addition to my blackjack play, but I no longer have that information. Once my partner started handling the VP mailer play, I started doing things a little differently, simplifying the whole record keeping process, because i couldn't be sure just how much he was actually playing to generate the offers, nor if he only played once through the cash out and stopped like he was supposed to be doing. I knew there were definitely leaks in his game, but that was acceptable to me as the VP mailer play was just a supplemental thing that we were splitting. The only thing that became relevant at that point was xxx is the amount we made from the entire process.

And while looking for what I have of these kinds of records and information, the big question I asked myself was why? Why am I doing this? We all know what coach belly is up to with this inquisition. As he is always doing he is looking for some kind of gottch ya moment. That is what they all do. I just am not going to play that game. I try to answer questions about what I do if someone really has some reasonable question. But I am not going to waste time on a coach belly, questioning me like I am on trial so he might find something he thinks is an inconsistency. Just not going to do that.

And as far as you AcctinQ, while I appreciate a better tone from you in the discussion late yesterday, you seem to be looking to prove that we got very lucking scoring a big hit on FP, playing a slot machine, which very little of our FP was played on. Let me save you the trouble.... YES WE DID! I think I stated that in no unequivocal terms from the moment I shared it.

It was such a longshot, type hit, that I didn't think I should be counting it as part of my advantage play numbers. But in the end, we got some FP because of tier matching, which was a result of AP, so anything we won is advantage play whether it would have been $100 or in this case $100k.

It continues to be a case of some of you people don't want to believe certain things, so don't believe certain things. Don't believe anything. I am fine with that. I am NOT writing a book, I am not telling some weird adventure like both Dawg and Singer where I am so desperate for people to believe me, that I post pictures like Singers RV picture or Dawgs chips and money spread out on the bed. What I do or did, because frankly there is little reason to anymore, is share some of my experiences as an AP for the last 21 years, 16 in Vegas. I am not going to waste time trying to prove something or even explain something to people that refuse to accept it when I do.

[kewlJ]

I spend way too much time on this shit....entertainment or not. I shouldn't be feeding and fighting with the trolls as much as I do. And that will stop.

I share what I want to share and that is all. If there are a hundred troll posts that follow and Dan Druff has decided that kind of trolling, harassment is ok, then so be it. But I am not going to respond to every troll post. I think I have done pretty well kicking some troll ass, but really what is the point. From this point, no more troll responses. If I say or share something and someone I consider reasonable, not a troll, has a question, I am happy to answer if I can, but I am just not going to waste my life feeding the trolls anymore.

Oh and acctinQ, I wanted to respond to your revealing that you were a multi-carder. It figures! I am not a fan of the mass production multi-carding play that took place. Many of us were doing a very small version of that with just a few accounts. You guys that came along doing hundreds and thousands of accounts ruined a good thing in my opinion. That actually happens frequently in advantage play, but I am not a fan of it. I am of the milk or shear rather than slaughter camp. Pick the fruit off the tree, rather than chop the tree down for wood.

[AxelWolf]

You have to put coin in to generate it.

We all know how freeplay works.

We know that the freeplay generated is based on the total wager, not losses.

Apparently, you don't really know how freeplay works.

There are many, many places where free play(large amounts that add up to well above your expected loss) is generated on losses. While it's not a loss rebate, sometimes it can even equate to getting over 100% loss rebate in the many thousands of dollars.

[kewlJ]

You have to put coin in to generate it.

We all know how freeplay works.

We know that the freeplay generated is based on the total wager, not losses.

Apparently, you don't really know how freeplay works.

There are many, many places where free play(large amounts that add up to well above your expected loss) is generated on losses. While it's not a loss rebate, sometimes it can even equate to getting over 100% loss rebate in the many thousands of dollars.

Keeping very detailed records can eat up more time than freaking playing. Can become THE fulltime job in itself. I used to do that with my blackjack too, want to know just how my win rate compared to EV for every location I played, updated after every session. I didn't need to know that so I simplified things. And did the same with the mailer/FP play. I just need bottom line results from the entire play.

Now for someone like you that runs a team and there may be a breakdown of earning based in individual play and time, you are going to have to keep records differently than I do. I am to the point now that I spend 10 minutes updating my records and just focus on the bottom line. And my brother is even worse. He keeps no records. He only plays blackjack but he never knows if he is even running above or below expectation, which I think has some value. He just plays and the difference in his BR from start of year to end is what he has won.

I think that is TOO extreme. But you can really get caught up in keeping way more records (time and energy) than is needed or of any value, IMO.

Something like the FP play, we all know how that works. We know what is +EV and what isn't (unlike redeitz). I don't need to keep records that show it down to the penny and 5th decimal point.

[coach belly]

There are many, many places where free play is generated on losses.

Is that a standard offer, or a special promotion?

Regarding standard freeplay offers, can you estimate what total wager would be required to generate $1million in freeplay? For this exercise, let's assume the offers are competitive among the various casinos and their affiliated properties.

Young Mendelson recently wrote of a 2-day trip to GVR, where his total wager was approximately $200K. How much FP can he expect to be offered from that total wager?

[kewlJ]

There are many, many places where free play is generated on losses.

Is that a standard formula, or a special promotion?

What does it matter really? Everything a player does, a little bit of this, a little bit of that, maybe some special promotion along with more regular play, gets added into the same bucket of EV (+EV). That is why there is little value in focusing on any small segment that may be part of that bucket.

[accountinquestion]

Ok, I don't have the answer to the question that CB asked, the cash out rate for only the FP. I thought I might have that information for 2010 and 2011 when I was doing all the VP mailer play myself in addition to my blackjack play, but I no longer have that information. Once my partner started handling the VP mailer play, I started doing things a little differently, simplifying the whole record keeping process, because i couldn't be sure just how much he was actually playing to generate the offers, nor if he only played once through the cash out and stopped like he was supposed to be doing. I knew there were definitely leaks in his game, but that was acceptable to me as the VP mailer play was just a supplemental thing that we were splitting. The only thing that became relevant at that point was xxx is the amount we made from the entire process.

And while looking for what I have of these kinds of records and information, the big question I asked myself was why? Why am I doing this? We all know what coach belly is up to with this inquisition. As he is always doing he is looking for some kind of gottch ya moment. That is what they all do. I just am not going to play that game. I try to answer questions about what I do if someone really has some reasonable question. But I am not going to waste time on a coach belly, questioning me like I am on trial so he might find something he thinks is an inconsistency. Just not going to do that.

And as far as you AcctinQ, while I appreciate a better tone from you in the discussion late yesterday, you seem to be looking to prove that we got very lucking scoring a big hit on FP, playing a slot machine, which very little of our FP was played on. Let me save you the trouble.... YES WE DID! I think I stated that in no unequivocal terms from the moment I shared it.

It was such a longshot, type hit, that I didn't think I should be counting it as part of my advantage play numbers. But in the end, we got some FP because of tier matching, which was a result of AP, so anything we won is advantage play whether it would have been $100 or in this case $100k.

It continues to be a case of some of you people don't want to believe certain things, so don't believe certain things. Don't believe anything. I am fine with that. I am NOT writing a book, I am not telling some weird adventure like both Dawg and Singer where I am so desperate for people to believe me, that I post pictures like Singers RV picture or Dawgs chips and money spread out on the bed. What I do or did, because frankly there is little reason to anymore, is share some of my experiences as an AP for the last 21 years, 16 in Vegas. I am not going to waste time trying to prove something or even explain something to people that refuse to accept it when I do.

But thats how you judge bullshit. You simply look at some form of odds and say "what are the chances that happened". In this case you have done multiple things are are bordering on impossible. Many things. Those of us who exist in a world of logic and math/probability based decisions think of it like that. Oh well - I'm done.

At the end of the day you've given 0 real evidence about your shuffler story. Some guy named Angel or something saw you sit down and put the shuffler in that mode. You backcounted 200 shoes in the sweatiest joint. None of it really makes sense to us. None of it once you start to go into details. And I took your original story and went and talked about it as if I was someone who knew something. You had a lot of credibility at the time.

I suppose it is possible that someone at El Cortez who was in management understood how Gaming enforcement works in practical terms. Possibly paid off someone and then brought in a shuffler that some cheat-crew had modified. That is somewhat reasonable. That however is now what you claimed. You claimed far far too much. Then I start going into ... what are the odds this could possibly exist in reality?

This is where conspiracy nuts get it wrong. Take the moon landing being staged. How many people would had to have been in on it and what are the odds that NONE of those people have stepped forward?

You had credibility then I felt like you had absolutely none and I didn't like repeating what I strongly suspect is bullshit. When I tell people shit - I want them to know that it is a rare day when I'm talking out my ass. And i approached you in private - asking you to fess up and I'd forget aobut it. You said 'fuck you' or maybe fuck off and thus you've brought on this endless questioning. I don't want other people to follow what i feel is nonsense - so I am trying to find a way to get you to give us credibility or not.

I don't give a shit about Singer or Mdawg. If someone thinks Mdawg is winning without any furthehr explanation then they're going to find that sort of belief elsewhere. That is not what you try to do though. What I feel are your lies are distinctly different. And that is why I have a problem with it. If some guy at a bar says I have 50000000000 million in gold, I'll LOL and not give a shit. Now if that person conveys that they're a serious person with serious experience and misleads me - THAT is where I have the problem and why I had/have a problem with you.

And you are desperate for people to believe you. That much should be clear to anyone. You're more desperate than Mdawg or Singer to be believed. That is as obvious as anything.

Good luck with your APing. I hope you kill it.

[coach belly]

We all know what coach belly is up to with this inquisition.

I'm trying to determine what level of machine play "seeding" is required to generate several millions of dollars in FP.

Here is your claim...

Our total FP played had to easily be several millions of dollars in FP played.

Can you estimate what total wager was required to generate several millions of dollars in FP?

So the return on FP first has to cover any -EV play and losses before there is a profit.

Do you have an idea of what losses you initially incurred to during the period when your machine play generated several millions of dollars in FP?

You brought this subject up earlier in this thread.

Now you want to shut down an examination of how the math works?

[accountinquestion]

Oh and acctinQ, I wanted to respond to your revealing that you were a multi-carder. It figures! I am not a fan of the mass production multi-carding play that took place. Many of us were doing a very small version of that with just a few accounts. You guys that came along doing hundreds and thousands of accounts ruined a good thing in my opinion. That actually happens frequently in advantage play, but I am not a fan of it. I am of the milk or shear rather than slaughter camp. Pick the fruit off the tree, rather than chop the tree down for wood.

Hundreds or thousands of cards? Huh? Far far far from it. Burning out things going crazy is one thing - sure. When you abuse any system you're working towards that goal. It was an interesting thing I did for 1/2 a year of my life. I wouldn't want to do it again. You have no idea what I did and i have no desire to talk about it publicly. If I meet an AP on here I'd tell them on phone or in person, likely email but thats it.

I'm not going to bother to explain why your thinking is wrong but I suspect what FP abuse you did was fairly low value contrary to the numbers you threw around in this thread but thats just my guess.

Honestly gambling is kinda lame. Normal successful women just see you as a degenerate. I may see them as unthinking cogs in the machine who also contribute little to society but ... that doesn't matter when I want to get with them.

[coach belly]

That is why there is little value in focusing on any small segment that may be part of that bucket.

Don't focus on any small segment. Focus on the question about the overall picture of your mail play.

Don't twist yourself into a pretzel, trying to deflect or misdirect...cling to the truth, and your story won't keep changing.

I don't need to keep records that show it down to the penny and 5th decimal point.

[accountinquestion]

You have to put coin in to generate it.

We all know how freeplay works.

We know that the freeplay generated is based on the total wager, not losses.

Apparently, you don't really know how freeplay works.

There are many, many places where free play(large amounts that add up to well above your expected loss) is generated on losses. While it's not a loss rebate, sometimes it can even equate to getting over 100% loss rebate in the many thousands of dollars.

And these places seem to be more likely to have card pulling software in place but I'm not entirely sure. I golden egypted a big loss up once and the person got 0 mail. Called up the host asking them what was up and they were like, 'Did you really lose ... ?'. Maybe we overdid it? We were like .. 'Well why would i play again at your casino if you're not going to give me anything?' and their repsonse was like "come in and we will see ..."

Looking back I'd do the timing differently. The simplest system would be to look for a big losing session. Then the next session is a huge win. If that pattern happens more than once on the same card then they'd know. Really it wouldn't be hard to find through automated means. Or find winning sessions that have crazy high results over little coin-in and go backwards to the previous card and flag it.

[smurgerburger]

Loss based would just give KJ better margins which was the point of belly was questioning.

[MDawg]

The documented facts about UNKewlJ include that she is a compulsive liar, hypocrite, self loathing bigot, male prostitute and is Pac Islander looking.

kewlJ is actually the biggest bigot on VCT.

kewlJ has been a whiner, a liar, a hypocrite, and a pain in the ass on many occasions

The entire forum knows you have an issue with pathological lying.

you can't help but insert fibs into your postings

Why are you still here?

[kewlJ]

At the end of the day you've given 0 real evidence about your shuffler story. Some guy named Angel or something saw you sit down and put the shuffler in that mode. You backcounted 200 shoes in the sweatiest joint. None of it really makes sense to us. None of it once you start to go into details. And I took your original story and went and talked about it as if I was someone who knew something. You had a lot of credibility at the time.

I don't know why you, Singer and dawg (the 3 musketeers) keep saying I am desperate to have people believe me. If I was I would have attempted to produce proof like the phony proof and pictures. that Singer and dawg posted numerous times. That I haven't and I could should be proof to you that I don't really care. Does this idea that I am desperate for people to believe me come from the fact that I will fight back when you guys lie about me repeatedly? Is that where this desperate nonsense comes from? I mean seriously, stop and think about what you are saying. If it was important to me, I could post some prove of some things I say. I never do that.

Now as for "angel". First I feel like you are conflating the two incidents I was involved with ASM. Angel was at East Cannery, not el cortez. Now go back and read Dan Druffs conclusion, which I happen to agree with 100% (how often do I say that?). This kind of cheating is NOT widespread. It is done a smaller places by a rouge type player (personél) or small group of personnel). Angel just happened to be that rogue player at East Cannery. I am certain of it. The mode accessing putting the cards in an unfavorable order, could be accessed by punching in a code or key was what the guy that showed me called it. Now to get to that point somebody would have had to alter the software and I have no ide who that would be. Some technician at the casino? someone brought in from outside? But once that was done the rogue player involved was this Angel. He is the only one I ever saw punch in the code. he was the guy, the rouge player that Dan Druff speaks of and I believe the same.

Now at El Cortez, it was a little different. I never saw anyone punch a code (or key). I think those machines had been set in that mode and stayed there, cheating everyone, card counters, regular players. Whereas, at East cannery, Angel was using it more discriminately, on select players and maybe select times, busier times to screw regular players. But the machine was not always in that mode. HE specifically was the rogue player involved. Where as El Cortez, it was set permanently. Pit people might not have even known.

This isn't wide spread. there would or could be consequences to the casino and you would hope that most casinos would not risk that. But anybody that thinks that there isn't and wouldn't be an occasional rogue person that wouldn't is being pretty naive in my opinion.

There are actually several self serving reasons why a person at a casino would do this on his own. It could be to make his table or pit have a higher "hold", making him look good. Or it could be more sinister in that he selectively cheats some players and then at a later time, can have a friend/Partner win at that table, while the hold would look very normal. He will have just determined who won and lost and for a personal profit.

But anyway, I am not involved much in the shuffle machine debate right now. The machines I play against, I am comfortable with and that is most of my play. people should just be aware of the possibility because this isn't going to go away. Sometime some casino is going to go full blown cheating big time with this and get caught. And it will be a big story. Not a doubt in my mind. And like Druff said, probably some Indian Casino somewhere already has. With little oversight it would be very hard for them to get caught.

I am fine with you and some others doubting or not believing the shuffle machine experience as well. But there is something kind of funny I have noticed. Whenever this topic comes up on any forum, there are some people that strongly opinion this is not happening. And often they are people on that forum that are known to be connected to the casino Industry. WoV has such a person. A guy that is open about working for the casinos. When this topic comes up he will be the first to defend casinos that this could not possibly happen when the technology alone says it could.

[accountinquestion]

The idea that an individual pit boss would install a gaffed machine so that some reporting system gave their pits a higher hold is something special.

Yes, I may have the El Cortez and East Cannery mixed up in regards to your storeis. I can't keep it all straight nor do I care to. It isn't important for obvious reasons.

The reason it is clear you care is because when someone strongly questions you in an authoritative manner - you go off and come up with some post that does nothing but try to juice up your credibility. Witness the thread where you put yourself in league with that Tommy guy. That all came about after I was questioning you. Look at when you post 4-5 times in a row and are not even responding to anyone specifically.

Clearly it isn't obvious to you but it obvious to everyone else that oh boy do you care. You may not even conciously be aware of this. Fuck if I know.

Good luck with your AP travels buddy.

[coach belly]

Loss based would just give KJ better margins which was the point of belly was questioning.

That's certainly possible. Young Mendelson just wrote about running a $200K wager through and finishing ahead.

He'll no doubt get some FP from that...without booking a loss.

Good thing for him he wasn't playing at one of those many, many loss-based FP joints Axel referenced.

I assume that the machine pros out there know how much total wager is required to generate, say $1K in FP.

So the pros would also know how much play is required to generate $1M in FP, and several millions of dollars in FP.

This is something an AP would need to know, right?

darkoz from WOV explained it several times...he knows.

But what about tewlj? What does he know? What do his records show?

Did he just send his partner out onto the floor to play -EV machines, without a clear idea of the expected value of that play?

Maybe he was initially unsure about what to expect, but is it likely they were flying blind for 8 years on the mail play?

[kewlJ]

Witness the thread where you put yourself in league with that Tommy guy.

WHAT??? I never have attempted to put myself in "a league" with Tommy Hyland or any other Top card counter or AP. NEVER! I do object to that accusation. THAT is just not who I am.

Some of the things you conclude like this, like that I desperately want people to believe me when I have never once attempted to post prove, like the frauds you link yourself too have, is beyond me. I often say to myself, "what exactly is he reading". But the problem really is that you are biased and go into something wanting to see what you want to see instead of what is really there.

But here we are again, going in circles. Why? There is no sense.

Now here is a fun observation from my time out on the strip last night. I was over at UNLV earlier in the week and Rodeo city was set up but no visits were there yet (horses and other animals of which they house 100's during the rodeo week. The rodeo events doesn't start until Dec 5, but from being on the strip lst night, without even venturing over that way, I can definitively say, at least some horses have arrived at Rodeo city. It is an aroma that will linger far longer than the two weeks the rodea is here. Not even all that horrible. Just a farmish aroma unusual to Las vegas.

[MDawg]

If kewlJ IS a male escort, the whole blackjack schtick is an excellent cover story to explain income to the IRS AND facilitate meeting wealthy dudes at casino tables.

That is precisely what he does. He's been observed at the tables by a host of people including MaxPen and AxelWolf, in the presence of an obvious sugar daddy type, pushing around low level red and green chips as obvious cover.