Addendum to Post 4111 of "Professional Sportsbetting" Thread

[kewlJ]

So Kewl - direct this conversation into what area is the math of blackjack needs work done. What do you think Grosjean was referencing?

Grosjean is a top, if not THE top table game AP. I probably don't know half of what Grosjean talks about. And I don't claim to. I know what I do and what the math is and more importantly to me, how to be able to keep playing and earning money at what I do

I think if James wanted it explained at VCT, he would come here and explain it.

[kewlJ]

One final thought here AcctinQ before I hit the sack. You are bouncing around between two threads here, so I am not going to look at which you said it, but Poker is NOT advantage play. No offense to you, or Druff or any other poker players, but it just isn't. Poker players are NOT playing against the casino, nor deal with the casinos and casino industry trying to stop them.

So if beside some multi-carding, the big feather in your gambling cap is poker, color me NOT impressed.

[accountinquestion]

For a guy who "doesn't know", you seem to have issued a strong opinion immediately preceding your "I don't know" admission.



You are conflating two different things. You asked how many 3-2 tables there were. I answered hundreds. On busier times like a Friday night, Saturday night maybe Sunday of a holiday weekend there are 100's (plural) of 3:2 tables throughout Vegas (not just on the strip).

Now you are asking how many I can play and spread what I want to play. That number is much less. Probably 30 on the strip, a couple downtown which I avoid for other reasons, and sparsely at places like Red rock, GVR and other station properties. Again, this is on a Friday or Saturday night. That is why I play those times. And if you are wondering about the 30 on the strip, the bigger casinos have multiple pits open on a busy weekend night. That would be numerous $50 and $100 tables where I can spread what I want. I just have to find a table with a few of the 30-40 year old Cali kids throwing some money around that I can blend in with.

But I am not going to explain any more to you. You are playing the coach belly role, making shit up, talking about shit you obviously have no clue about, hoping for some kind of "gottch ya" moment.

But I gotta ask: what kind of person says "you can't do this or that" and in the very next breath says "I don't know...maybe you can". Seems like you put zero thought into what you are saying, just throwing shit and seeing what sticks.

No, I wasn't conflating. Good grief. I was vague and clarified there are 2 different things. 3:2 tables you can utilize and 3:2 tables overall. Anyway, that is not a anthill I plan on defending. Whether 250 or 150 3:2 tables - it is largely irrelevant.

So what is the reasoning here that had you move up in limits after OSN entries?

Mcap may feel sorry for you but many of us don't.

I have shared all I intend to about why I changed how I play. If you can't figure it out, that is on you. You can ask 5 more times (you already have twice) and still won't get an answer from me. I share what I want to share about what I do and how I do it, not what you, some coach belly clone demand I share.

And Mcap feeling sorry for me is laughable. Mcap has never gone out of his way to be supportive of me and that is fine. And he didn't here either. All he did was point out in no uncertain terms how you seem to be talking about shit you really have no clue about. I feel like I am fucking talking to Tasha when I am talking to you.

I didn't want an indepth manual. I just wanted to know how raising stakes helps with OSN. I can think of some reasons maybe sorta? But if you're in OSN and worried about being found again - moving up in limits does not in any way seem to be the way to go. They'll still look for bet correlation according to count and you'll be able the tables they're doing that the most at but I'm sure you can't tell me how I'm wrong. It is just made up stuff...

anyway, I know Grosjean is way beyond you. I've have a xeroxed copies of pages of his book. Everyone knows who he and knows he knows more than any poster on here regarding tables games. I'm curious if anyone has any idea what he is thinking when he talks about unexplored math. Or maybe you do - ask mcap seemed to think it was relevant in judging your level of expertise in BJ?

Which honestly supports my side.

Yea, I know, I said I'd go to bed. ugh. late coffee and compelling kewl.

edit - actually - We have Elliot on here who actually very likely knows more than Grosjean. So..... even thats not true.

[accountinquestion]

One final thought here AcctinQ before I hit the sack. You are bouncing around between two threads here, so I am not going to look at which you said it, but Poker is NOT advantage play. No offense to you, or Druff or any other poker players, but it just isn't. Poker players are NOT playing against the casino, nor deal with the casinos and casino industry trying to stop them.

So if beside some multi-carding, the big feather in your gambling cap is poker, color me NOT impressed.

lol Kewl wanting to pull some card as an offical APer. Bro - it doesn't matter to others. Thats YOUR identity. YOUR need.

You gamble when you have an advantage. Sometimes you'll even find yourself playing against the house in poker if you go down the hole far enough. THese things are not that different yet very different. Regardless I've dabbled in many forms of APing but I have no need to make up rollover numbers that no one else has ever heard of because I can't find a good reference on the net.

I don't care to impress you kewl. No one on here does.

[kewlJ]

I'd much rather have spend 3 years playing BJ and burn through it to the max and then take the money and invest it in other pursuits than I would sit there and spending the rest of my natural life giving up the best hours of the week.

I missed this comment, so let me address this as well before I hit the sack. What you are describing is the sheer vs slaughter blackjack debate. I have chosen sheer. I have always or at least since shortly after I moved to Vegas, had the bankroll to play much, much larger stakes. I could have done the "get all you can" drill, probably lasted about 2 months here in Vegas, maybe another 6 months bouncing around the U.S., similar to the KC travels of a decade ago. I think he lasted 18 months although he ventured as far as Canada also before the end.

But I have chosen longevity. I like what I do, how I make a living, the amounts involved and that I have even passed my knowledge along to my brother when he showed an interest. I hope we both have another 10 years. And I really don't see anything on the horizon that would prevent that.

[kewlJ]

No, I wasn't conflating. Good grief. I was vague and clarified there are 2 different things. 3:2 tables you can utilize and 3:2 tables overall. Anyway, that is not a anthill I plan on defending. Whether 250 or 150 3:2 tables - it is largely irrelevant.

So what is the reasoning here that had you move up in limits after OSN entries?

Mcap may feel sorry for you but many of us don't.

I have shared all I intend to about why I changed how I play. If you can't figure it out, that is on you. You can ask 5 more times (you already have twice) and still won't get an answer from me. I share what I want to share about what I do and how I do it, not what you, some coach belly clone demand I share.

And Mcap feeling sorry for me is laughable. Mcap has never gone out of his way to be supportive of me and that is fine. And he didn't here either. All he did was point out in no uncertain terms how you seem to be talking about shit you really have no clue about. I feel like I am fucking talking to Tasha when I am talking to you.

I didn't want an indepth manual. I just wanted to know how raising stakes helps with OSN. I can think of some reasons maybe sorta? But if you're in OSN and worried about being found again - moving up in limits does not in any way seem to be the way to go. They'll still look for bet correlation according to count and you'll be able the tables they're doing that the most at but I'm sure you can't tell me how I'm wrong. It is just made up stuff...

anyway, I know Grosjean is way beyond you. I've have a xeroxed copies of pages of his book. Everyone knows who he and knows he knows more than any poster on here regarding tables games. I'm curious if anyone has any idea what he is thinking when he talks about unexplored math. Or maybe you do - ask mcap seemed to think it was relevant in judging your level of expertise in BJ?

Which honestly supports my side.

Yea, I know, I said I'd go to bed. ugh. late coffee and compelling kewl.

edit - actually - We have Elliot on here who actually very likely knows more than Grosjean. So..... even thats not true.

You can ask the OSN question as many times as you want. I am NOT going to spell it out.

And we don't have Eliot (spelled with one L) "on here" any more. He is one of the member that the trolls drove away. I talk to him occasionally (although not recently) and I am fairly certain there is no way he will post here again.

And while Eliot may be James equal or fairly close in mathematical ability, including gambling math, Eliot was never able to apply that to making a living on our side of the table, so he is no equal to James as far as advantage player. Go back and read Zenking's post from Sunday. Knowing the math is only one of several traits a card counter or any AP needs to succeed. Eliot was always missing the comfort level in putting out his money.

[MDawg]

you're clearly mentally ill.

It just goes on and on. I'm here to be entertained not to mingle with the retard wing of the insane asylum.

Get help.

[smurgerburger]

Isn't it always the people that are most insistent upon a title that least deserve it?

[regnis]

Kewl--I am not fighting with you. Just giving my perspective. I don't fight with anyone here.
On straight bets, he may be waiting for the line to move. If he gave out the pick, it might move the wrong way.
OK--that's my last comment on this.

[MDawg]

MDawg this is the last thing I will ever say to you

[jdaewoo]

This retard is a closeted homosexual.

[redietz]

I appreciate regnis providing confirmation. Thank you. Unnecessary, but much appreciated.

I'm posting this to clear up the notion of futures moving. Futures can move dramatically, so if you have bet a future at a particular number, and plan to possibly bet more, then it is a bad idea to publicly announce what you have taken. Even if the notion of you adding to your wager is minimal, it makes no real sense to share the information.

As an example, I point to the retro road trip thread, where I posted futures on my Rams-to-win-SB wagers in the year Kurt Warner famously took them to the SB title. I and a handful of others whacked the Rams that year, which led to a couple of sports books firing their managers. In any event, my point is that I did NOT bet the Rams until after I had seen their first game, when they were still 300-1 some places. Then after they won their second game, I was able to launch at up to 200-1 some places. Then, after they went to 3-0, I was able to snag some 100-1s at Mandalay Bay.

Now, if I had gone public with those plays, there is a very good chance there would have been no 100-1 by the third week. Similarly, since a number of other people did the same as me, if any of them had gone public, we all would have suffered.

Yet there was no cross-communication between us. We were oblivious to each other at the time, but we were smart enough to stay compartmentalized.

The Kurt Warner story became, to a small extent, the Bob Dietz story also, as his abilities more or less paid for my house.

Now this was a long time ago. Anybody sharing a futures wager publicly would be someone, and this is the obvious key element, who HAS NO INCLINAION TO BET MORE ON IT. Understand, also, that you would not share a future on, say, to-win-the-AFC, when the probability or possibility exists that you may want to bet the same team to-win-division down the road.

You are trying to avoid all attention being directed to that team/situation.

I post this as a public service to any bettors out there. This is not rocket science or CIA-level skullduggery. If you spend 10 seconds thinking about it, all of this is obvious.

LOL. Except, of course, to kewlj, who we all know has spent decades in Las Vegas as a professional gambler.

He's just a little slow. Forgive him.

P.S. That Rams SB future is a good story which I will share on a podcast some time. I had some adventures, as I got money down for other people, including Bob Hurst, the president of Golden Eagle Distributing, who actually knew a bunch of things I was oblivious to, such as the fact I could duck any tax burden and that the Mirage had certain exits and corridors where you could avoid surveillance (if you were in the Black Book). And, of course, there was the odd experience of toting around hundreds of thousands in potential tickets 24/7 since there was no way in hell I would leave them in any room where I was staying.

[mickeycrimm]

I was contacted by David Hill of The Ringer who interviewed me a few years ago. He’s looking into sportsbetting and asked me if I was involved in it. I told him no but I knew someone, redietz, that has been involved for forty years and appears to be successful at it. I gave him redietz’ Integrity email address. I also told him redietz would be a prime candidate for a Ringer interview.

[coach belly]

I and a handful of others whacked the Rams that year, which led to a couple of sports books firing their managers.

So much for Kim Lee's detailed research, analysis and conclusions about your record.

He'll need to update his report...he's gonna need a bigger calculator.

[kewlJ]

I and a handful of others whacked the Rams that year, which led to a couple of sports books firing their managers.

So much for Kim Lee's detailed research, analysis and conclusions about your record.

He'll need to update his report...he's gonna need a bigger calculator.

Kim Lee reported his finding from examining decades of the very publications that redietz cherry-picked making his claims. And upon viewing ALL results, not just the cherry-picked results Kim Lee concluded Dietz did not and could not have made much money. he just didn't have a winning percentage that would account for that.

So this little story,, completely undocumented that Dietz wants to tell about crushing a future bet 25 years ago means little. Well I guess except to you belly, but YOU have an agenda.

What I find more interesting is that mickeycrimm just revealed that there was yet another guy, that wanted to interview Dietz that dietz apparently turned down. That makes at least 3. now counting Druff and Munchkin. Can't help but wonder why Dietz who is "dying" to tell his story keeps turning down these interviews? The only conclusion is he knows he will get caught in some bullshit he can't explain and these real players will see right through his bullshit.

[mickeycrimm]

I appreciate regnis providing confirmation. Thank you. Unnecessary, but much appreciated.

I'm posting this to clear up the notion of futures moving. Futures can move dramatically, so if you have bet a future at a particular number, and plan to possibly bet more, then it is a bad idea to publicly announce what you have taken. Even if the notion of you adding to your wager is minimal, it makes no real sense to share the information.

As an example, I point to the retro road trip thread, where I posted futures on my Rams-to-win-SB wagers in the year Kurt Warner famously took them to the SB title. I and a handful of others whacked the Rams that year, which led to a couple of sports books firing their managers. In any event, my point is that I did NOT bet the Rams until after I had seen their first game, when they were still 300-1 some places. Then after they won their second game, I was able to launch at up to 200-1 some places. Then, after they went to 3-0, I was able to snag some 100-1s at Mandalay Bay.

Now, if I had gone public with those plays, there is a very good chance there would have been no 100-1 by the third week. Similarly, since a number of other people did the same as me, if any of them had gone public, we all would have suffered.

Yet there was no cross-communication between us. We were oblivious to each other at the time, but we were smart enough to stay compartmentalized.

The Kurt Warner story became, to a small extent, the Bob Dietz story also, as his abilities more or less paid for my house.

Now this was a long time ago. Anybody sharing a futures wager publicly would be someone, and this is the obvious key element, who HAS NO INCLINAION TO BET MORE ON IT. Understand, also, that you would not share a future on, say, to-win-the-AFC, when the probability or possibility exists that you may want to bet the same team to-win-division down the road.

You are trying to avoid all attention being directed to that team/situation.

I post this as a public service to any bettors out there. This is not rocket science or CIA-level skullduggery. If you spend 10 seconds thinking about it, all of this is obvious.

LOL. Except, of course, to kewlj, who we all know has spent decades in Las Vegas as a professional gambler.

He's just a little slow. Forgive him.

P.S. That Rams SB future is a good story which I will share on a podcast some time. I had some adventures, as I got money down for other people, including Bob Hurst, the president of Golden Eagle Distributing, who actually knew a bunch of things I was oblivious to, such as the fact I could duck any tax burden and that the Mirage had certain exits and corridors where you could avoid surveillance (if you were in the Black Book). And, of course, there was the odd experience of toting around hundreds of thousands in potential tickets 24/7 since there was no way in hell I would leave them in any room where I was staying.

What were the names of the sports book managers that got fired?

[redietz]

I appreciate regnis providing confirmation. Thank you. Unnecessary, but much appreciated.

I'm posting this to clear up the notion of futures moving. Futures can move dramatically, so if you have bet a future at a particular number, and plan to possibly bet more, then it is a bad idea to publicly announce what you have taken. Even if the notion of you adding to your wager is minimal, it makes no real sense to share the information.

As an example, I point to the retro road trip thread, where I posted futures on my Rams-to-win-SB wagers in the year Kurt Warner famously took them to the SB title. I and a handful of others whacked the Rams that year, which led to a couple of sports books firing their managers. In any event, my point is that I did NOT bet the Rams until after I had seen their first game, when they were still 300-1 some places. Then after they won their second game, I was able to launch at up to 200-1 some places. Then, after they went to 3-0, I was able to snag some 100-1s at Mandalay Bay.

Now, if I had gone public with those plays, there is a very good chance there would have been no 100-1 by the third week. Similarly, since a number of other people did the same as me, if any of them had gone public, we all would have suffered.

Yet there was no cross-communication between us. We were oblivious to each other at the time, but we were smart enough to stay compartmentalized.

The Kurt Warner story became, to a small extent, the Bob Dietz story also, as his abilities more or less paid for my house.

Now this was a long time ago. Anybody sharing a futures wager publicly would be someone, and this is the obvious key element, who HAS NO INCLINAION TO BET MORE ON IT. Understand, also, that you would not share a future on, say, to-win-the-AFC, when the probability or possibility exists that you may want to bet the same team to-win-division down the road.

You are trying to avoid all attention being directed to that team/situation.

I post this as a public service to any bettors out there. This is not rocket science or CIA-level skullduggery. If you spend 10 seconds thinking about it, all of this is obvious.

LOL. Except, of course, to kewlj, who we all know has spent decades in Las Vegas as a professional gambler.

He's just a little slow. Forgive him.

P.S. That Rams SB future is a good story which I will share on a podcast some time. I had some adventures, as I got money down for other people, including Bob Hurst, the president of Golden Eagle Distributing, who actually knew a bunch of things I was oblivious to, such as the fact I could duck any tax burden and that the Mirage had certain exits and corridors where you could avoid surveillance (if you were in the Black Book). And, of course, there was the odd experience of toting around hundreds of thousands in potential tickets 24/7 since there was no way in hell I would leave them in any room where I was staying.

What were the names of the sports book managers that got fired?

Don't remember. I know one was at the Strat. And that's interesting, because I didn't bet it at the Strat. Obviously other people did, and I have tried to remember whether I scouted the Strat numbers. I must have, as I was notoriously thorough, but I don't have a clear memory of it and I sure don't have a clear memory of them having better numbers than the Golden Nugget or Bally's or Mandalay Bay. But people must have whacked it there. I'm thinking the Strat, despite its modest trappings, must have had its own bevy of high end clientele, but I never really hung out there much.

The Mandalay Bay guy got heat for being the last person to keep the long numbers up, but I think he kept his position.

I was a real ass when I cashed my Mandalay tickets, but it made for a good story. I can't believe the things I did when I was younger. I left no free lunch unturned, kind of like Dancer. That's not a good thing all the time.

[kewlJ]

Let me see if I have this right. because I am a little slow.

Dietz posted up this story today, about hitting a superbowl futures bet 25 years ago. He claims the money from this wager paid for his house.

Within his little story today Bob said him and a couple others "whacking this play" led to a couple sportsbooks firing their managers. Mickey pressed him for names of the fired managers of which Redeitz can't remember. But he does remember one of the sportsbooks that fired their manager was the Strat. He then states that HE didn't bet at the Strat though.

Does this make sense to anybody, because I am a little slow. Deitz's wager resulted in a couple sportsbooks firing their manager. One of those books was the Strat. But Redietz didn't bet at the Strat.

If I didn't know better, it sounds like Deitz lifted a story, (ala Singer and the double-up bug) where somebody hit a large futures wager and the book manager was fired. But injecting himself doesn't make sense because he claims he didn't bet where the manager got fired.

hum... Great story though Deitz. Fun Story. Can't WAIT to hear it on the podcast. Which of the podcasts that we have been waiting for 3+ years are we talking about now?

[kewlJ]

Its also funny how we haven't heard this story before. 15 years Deitz has been on this forum crowing about being a professional sports bettor, when in fact he was a sports betting TOUT. And this which would have been his single biggest moment in life, we haven't heard about. I am a little slow but that seems odd to me.

If I didn't know better, I might think that with people now knowing Dietz wife purchased the house for them in 2000, that dietz looked up what he could say he won a big wager on that year to tell this story and defuse that talk, because he doesn't like the narrative that the wife supported him.

Problem is there is holes in that story. One of the hole is that records show the house was bought 10 days BEFORE the superbowl. Even if he had hedged the bet, prior to superbowl, payouts wouldn't have occurred until after the game, but some how Bob Deitz used that money to purchase the house 10 days BEFORE the game.

Par for VCT I guess. We have Dawg winning 10's of millions of dollars with no heat and counter-measures and the casinos not caring. We have Singer stealing the double-up bug claims and buying houses for his kids with suitcases full of money. We have a casino wheeling a machine into the storage area, so Singer can hit a million dollar plus jackpot. And now Dietz hitting a futures bet that paid for his house, when the house was purchased by his wife 10 days before the outcome of the wager.

And people complain that i sometimes have to be less than honest with a couple minor details. Funny, Funny Forum you got here Dan Druff.

[kewlJ]

I am going to say this YET again. there are people that beat the casinos long-term. We are called advantage players. There are a ton of things a player can do to play with an advantage. Most of the newer stuff above my pay grade. But none of it results in these kind of mega jackpot like hits.

Advantage play is slow and steady. And the AP has to work at it. BUT that is not what these fantastical stories are about. These all seem to be long-term losing type (substitute degen) players trying to top one another with fantastical big hit stories.