Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
My point is that there really is no "long term" because the long term is not "fixed" and the long term changes with each subsequent play.
The return that is posted on a machine is not a long term result, it is the expected return based on one play given the pay table that is available.

There is no "long term return." Every time you play one hand the long term return will change.
Alan, that is partially true, but the long term indicates what your odds are for winning for each hand played. And that's what's important. Sometimes you'll beat the odds, sometimes you will fall behind the odds, but as you play more, you will get closer and closer to the expected return.

You can't ignore the per-hand odds and say, "Well, I'll never reach the true long term, so who cares?"

That's like saying mountain climbing and spending the day at the library don't have a considerable difference in danger, as a few people have died in library fires over the years, and most people survive mountain climbing, so each instance of library visitation and mountain climbing each carry their own chance of death, and you shouldn't worry about the long-term odds of dying in either of them.