Technical Analysis and Gambling Returns

[quahaug]

"thanks but I did quite well trading stocks using TA" VARIANCE You're almost as lucky as Rob!

[Alan Mendelson]

Yeah. 42 years of variance, quahaug.

I used to write for Barron's. I did business reviews. I used technical analysis as part of the stock analysis.

[RS__]

Yeah. 42 years of variance, quahaug.

I used to write for Barron's. I did business reviews. I used technical analysis as part of the stock analysis.

And 27 years of losses at the casinos....eventually ya gotta figure it out -- there is no "magical winning system" with analysis/money management/etc. As long as the casino has the edge....don't expect to win anything.

[Alan Mendelson]

And 27 years of losses at the casinos....eventually ya gotta figure it out -- there is no "magical winning system" with analysis/money management/etc. As long as the casino has the edge....don't expect to win anything.

The difference between you and me, and others, is that I am willing to examine the possibilities before I make up my mind.

Now, I didn't say stock market technical analysis is proven to work on casino gaming. I said I was going to look into it. Who else is going to try or would supply me with their raw numbers so I can plot the charts?

[Rob.Singer]

So, so funny. We get to witness yet ANOTHER instance where arci steps into his own trap. Mr. "all-detail-all-the-time/just-setting-the-record-straight-with-only-the-facts" now finds himself needing to tongue-twist his way out of this.

It just doesn't get any better than watching a geek squirm in his own pile of BS!

[quahaug]

Yeah. 42 years of variance, quahaug.

I used to write for Barron's. I did business reviews. I used technical analysis as part of the stock analysis.

The key is "part" of stock analysis. It's the part that examines trends in the past not the future.

[arcimede$]

The difference between you and me, and others, is that I am willing to examine the possibilities before I make up my mind.

What exactly are the possibilities? You think you can detect a pattern in randomness? Well, guess what ... you can. There are an infinite number.

Now, I didn't say stock market technical analysis is proven to work on casino gaming. I said I was going to look into it. Who else is going to try or would supply me with their raw numbers so I can plot the charts?

You don't need anyone's raw numbers you can create your own. Just write up a little program that generates hands out of random numbers and bingo, you have your results. Not only that but you can create thousands of sessions in just a few seconds.

Of course, it is a waste of time. Just like VP machines the program will produce results that are random. There is no TA that works on random numbers.

[quahaug]

Or you could keep it simple Alan, just roll one die repeatedly and see if you can analyze the pattern of 2s that you throw. Then you can say with total confidence you know exactly what the odds of your next toss being a 2 is. 1 in 6.

[jbjb]

Yous guys are comical.

[Alan Mendelson]

This is not about simulating hands, Arc.
This is not about rolling a single die, qua.
What we have here can best be described this way: closed minds think alike.
I'm sorry I bothered you with an idea.
You guys already know all the answers. How stupid can I possibly be not to think that the world's brain trust is right here and already has all the answers.

[quahaug]

That's what you get for asking the same old and by now dumb question over and over. The answer is you cannot predict the future of random events based on a "pattern" of random events in the past. That answer will never change ever. Get over it Alan!

[Alan Mendelson]

That's what you get for asking the same old and by now dumb question over and over. The answer is you cannot predict the future of random events based on a "pattern" of random events in the past. That answer will never change ever. Get over it Alan!

You are 100% certain of this -- and all of the elements contained in your question?

Instead of me investigating, save me the time and show me your proof.

[arcimede$]

This is not about simulating hands, Arc.
This is not about rolling a single die, qua.
What we have here can best be described this way: closed minds think alike.
I'm sorry I bothered you with an idea.
You guys already know all the answers. How stupid can I possibly be not to think that the world's brain trust is right here and already has all the answers.

A session is nothing but a collection of hands. Try again.

PS. the brain trust is widespread. We are just a couple out of tens of thousands that will tell you the exact same thing.

[Alan Mendelson]

I will give you one "variable" which the brain trust is not considering: fatigue.

Charting your results could show the influence of fatigue on your decision making. Want some more?

This is a real problem for people who are narrow minded. They make up their minds based on their own priorities and fail to consider other variables.

[redietz]

Alan is correct regarding fatigue. It should show up on that kind of charting.

But of course, unless notes (or video) are taken, the effects of distractions, alcohol, and so on will go unnoticed, thereby corrupting any results. If, for example, one makes errors when artificially enhanced bosoms wander by, then T&A will have rendered TA useless.

[arcimede$]

Anyone who is playing when they are mentally compromised is not going to be worrying about a TA. Good grief.

[redietz]

Arci, I like that term -- "mentally compromised." That's another one I'll borrow. Some of us spend most of the day mentally compromised.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan is correct regarding fatigue. It should show up on that kind of charting.

But of course, unless notes (or video) are taken, the effects of distractions, alcohol, and so on will go unnoticed, thereby corrupting any results. If, for example, one makes errors when artificially enhanced bosoms wander by, then T&A will have rendered TA useless.

Actually, if you actually studied TA you would find that all of these factors are considered in stock market pricing. For example: stock prices when charted reflect sales, profits, margins, taxes, news, emotions, sales forecasts, etc.

[quahaug]

Actually, if you actually studied TA you would find that all of these factors are considered in stock market pricing. For example: stock prices when charted reflect sales, profits, margins, taxes, news, emotions, sales forecasts, etc.

Alan, it appears You don't know what technical analysis is.

[quahaug]

You are 100% certain of this -- and all of the elements contained in your question?

Instead of me investigating, save me the time and show me your proof.

Yes 100%. GAMBLERS FALLACY. That's all you need to know. It's a real thing Alan.