Technical Analysis and Gambling Returns

[jbjb]

Consistently is dictated and controlled by discipline and determination. Players either have these traits or they don't.

Agreed. It's tough when it comes to casino gambling.

[Alan Mendelson]

So much for that mystical "stop loss" you adhere to so much.

Who says I didn't use a stop loss? I said it was more than you could imagine since you've only told us about playing nickels.

[Alan Mendelson]

The harm is that random results will tend to show patterns over the short term. You will find these patterns. However, they are meaningless.

I don't know. I haven't done enough charting yet. In stocks they use 180 and 270 day charts. How many plays do baccarat players use? Ten? Twenty?

Some chart work involves five years and ten years of daily changes.

[redietz]

No social scientists here, eh?

If you check the academic journals going back 50 years, it's virtually a clean sweep for humans having a bias towards finding patterns where none exist as opposed to missing patterns that are there. In other words, we have an inherent paranoia when it comes to imposing order out of chaotic information, even when there is no order actually in the chaos. We are nature-built conspiracy theorists. Nothing is there, but we interpret relationships, anyway.

You know, if you actually go to a university library and read through academic journals, it's amazing what big questions have been investigated hundreds and thousands of times by people trained to do so.

[Rob.Singer]

Red, academia is always deficient when it comes to anything outside of textbook theory. These people are like the armchair AP's--they theorize about what the issue is and then come up with what people like them want to hear.

For instance, this discussion about Brodie, and now Greektown. AP's want it to be that Brodie was the "victim" of a "technician's error". He wasn't. Caesar's knew that's what he requested so they gave it to him. The pedestrian part of the story reads like an AP-Hammer's-Another-Casino best-seller, but I was clearly told that Brodie made the request. A lower level suit initially denied the request but was overridden by his Director.

I don't know a lot about Greektown other than certain self-proclaimed "AP's" who live in the past wanting it to be that "a flock of Vegas AP's came out of their secret lurking spots and descended upon Detroit like a brand new muscle car design". But when it came to the Revel promotion where these clowns all proclaimed the same type of thing, I found out 1st hand that that was not the case, by going in 50-50 with someone I know is a REAL gambling pro who actually walks the streets of LV in plain view.

[jbjb]

Who says I didn't use a stop loss? I said it was more than you could imagine since you've only told us about playing nickels.

If you quit at -$1500, good for you. For some reason, I think you lost more than that. But if you did, so what. That's not a lot of money on a $5 vp game.

I play nickels and quarters while passing time trying to do it as cheaply as possible.

[jbjb]

I don't know a lot about Greektown other than certain self-proclaimed "AP's" who live in the past wanting it to be that "a flock of Vegas AP's came out of their secret lurking spots and descended upon Detroit like a brand new muscle car design".

It was owned by Indians at the time. They're afraid to lose a penny. Enough said.

[regnis]

If you quit at -$1500, good for you. For some reason, I think you lost more than that. But if you did, so what. That's not a lot of money on a $5 vp game.

I play nickels and quarters while passing time trying to do it as cheaply as possible.

Why does everyone care so much about Alan's gambling. Like many of us here, he likes to gamble. He's a big boy and seems to have the resources to gamble when he desires to do so. If he adheres to his "rules" or decides not to because he wants to play a little more, who cares? He is playing for recreation--not as a pro.

[redietz]

With all due respect, Rob, it must be nice to dismiss thousands of experts because they are part of something you call "academia." I don't think you know much of anything about academics.

The studies I am telling you to read aren't theories. They are experimental studies. Hundreds of them, maybe in the thousands. Experiments, Rob. Not opinion pieces.

You would really dismiss hundreds of experimental studies because they do not agree with your opinion? That is beyond insane.

[jbjb]

Why does everyone care so much about Alan's gambling. Like many of us here, he likes to gamble. He's a big boy and seems to have the resources to gamble when he desires to do so. If he adheres to his "rules" or decides not to because he wants to play a little more, who cares? He is playing for recreation--not as a pro.

I couldn't care less how he does. But don't tell us you do one thing then complete ignore your own stipulations. Sure doesn't look good for him. Plus the fact he thinks he's "profiting" when we all damn well know he isn't. He gives false hope.

[Alan Mendelson]

Jbjb you seem to have one purpose here: to rag on me. It must be your big thrill to attack a TV guy. I hope you're having fun. I've been dealing with dweebs like you my whole life. As W.C. Fields put it -- go away kid you're bothering me.

[jbjb]

Dweeb huh? Typical attack from a pathetic loser. See ya.

[Alan Mendelson]

With all due respect, Rob, it must be nice to dismiss thousands of experts because they are part of something you call "academia." I don't think you know much of anything about academics.

I am curious what the academic experts say about the patterns that investors look at when they examine charts of stocks, commodities, futures? Do they also dismiss those patterns as "humans having a bias towards finding patterns where none exist"? Would you mind checking with those experts if, perhaps, they look at the chart patterns of their pension funds and 401ks, or are they dismissing those as well?

By the way, Investors Business Daily is an investor publication which has its foundation on the reading of stock and commodity chart patterns. The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and nearly all financial media use technical analysis when showing chart patterns. Are they also "humans having a bias towards finding patterns where none exist"?

[redietz]

I was referring to your application of this tea leaves stuff to video poker, not the stock market. Just because something works for stock market investing doesn't mean it has any relevance to the allegedly random events of video poker. It's Rob's hot/cold cycles revisited.

Alan, how you spend your time is entirely up to you. Obviously. How TA could apply to video poker, I haven't a clue. Good luck with it.

It's not like data mining is new in the gambling world. People have data mined sports betting to death. Programs have been running 24/7 for decades searching for every conceivable relationship. In sports betting, some of the relationships mean something. Some do not. But sports betting doesn't feature independent random events.

Financial media do not cover "independent random events." That's the key phrase here. The difference is so obvious, I don't understand why you would suggest financial media as some evidence for humans finding patterns in independent random events.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't understand why you would suggest financial media as some evidence for humans finding patterns in independent random events.

Curiosity, as I wrote in my original post:

I am just wondering if anyone has ever tried to use stock market technical analysis to help guide them in their casino gaming?

Well, Stan Weinstein who I knew from my days as the business reporter at WTVJ in Miami told me that TA could be applied to anything. He said everything had these four stages: base building, growth, topping off, and decline.

I have no fear of investigating. Do you?

By the way...

Financial media do not cover "independent random events." That's the key phrase here.

Independent random events can move the markets dramatically: deaths, accidents, plane crashes, freak storms, criminal acts. All independent, all random.

[Rob.Singer]

Red, if a machine keeps on spitting out winners, that machine is in a hot cycle. No question about it. Is it random? Yup. Will it continue? Don't know. Should you keep on playing it? Well, if you're not using an absolute stop-win goal....then what's your TA telling you?

The experts in academia would never understand this. Sure, they know how to get nervous when they hear things like "Muslim terrorists", "White Lives Matter", or "The Obama experiment has failed pathetically" but when it comes to practical solutions and how to accomplish anything instead of theorizing about it by referencing textbooks, they are painfully lacking.

[quahaug]

Independent random events can move the markets dramatically: deaths, accidents, plane crashes, freak storms, criminal acts. All independent, all random. Absolutely correct Alan, they also have absolutely nothing to do with technical analysis.

[redietz]

Quahaug, thanks for explaining that much better than I did. I was referencing technical analysis, but didn't make that clear, which is my error.

Rob, your stereotyping of academics is ridiculous. I live in Tennessee. I know many academics who are more conservative than you. Academia includes engineers, business professors, agriculturists, and so on, not just English profs and music teachers. As a US national grouping, academics are more "liberal" than the US average, but the US, on a scale of western democracies, is among the most conservative. American academics, compared to most other democracies' academics, are quite conservative.

[Alan Mendelson]

Independent random events can move the markets dramatically: deaths, accidents, plane crashes, freak storms, criminal acts. All independent, all random. Absolutely correct Alan, they also have absolutely nothing to do with technical analysis.

You are so wrong. Read the book by Weinstein or any other and you will see how random events are factored into prices which in turn become parts of chart patterns. Why am I arguing with people who know nothing about TA?

[Rob.Singer]

Quahaug, thanks for explaining that much better than I did. I was referencing technical analysis, but didn't make that clear, which is my error.

Rob, your stereotyping of academics is ridiculous. I live in Tennessee. I know many academics who are more conservative than you. Academia includes engineers, business professors, agriculturists, and so on, not just English profs and music teachers. As a US national grouping, academics are more "liberal" than the US average, but the US, on a scale of western democracies, is among the most conservative. American academics, compared to most other democracies' academics, are quite conservative.

You're cherry-picking the subject. Watch the news on any channel. Constant disruptions are allowed on so many campuses and it is ALWAYS liberal groups supported by activist professors doing the disruptions when conservatives try to speak. Similar to marches in the streets by nutjob factions like Black Lives Matter that are nearly always accompanied by violence because these slugs don't work or have any responsibilities, and along with the homo/rainbow tiptoeing around town, there is always academia in the background. Conservative academia? Never.