Technical Analysis and Gambling Returns

[Alan Mendelson]

Well Alan, have at it. Flip a coin 100 times, analyze the pattern, then tell us how many correct calls you can make on future flips.

This proves you are clueless about this. If you were to chart coin flips you would never get anything but a flat line that is +/- one position. TA tells us that the next flip would also be +/- one.

And you thought you were being smart?

[Rob.Singer]

Everything has a pattern in life--now or eventually. Everything, random or not, and especially in mathematics where Pi, while never repeating, does exhibit occasional patterns as it goes into the hyper-thousands. To deny random patterns is to admit that you're out of touch with reality.

Alan, I think you just took arci's socks off.

[redietz]

Nobody denied "random patterns." What is being denied is the idea that identifying "random patterns" in the past is of any value going forward. It has no predictive value.

That was the point of mentioning the JB Rhine experiments. Identifying some assumed anomaly in the past data as a pattern was of no value in predicting the future data. The presumed "patterns" didn't show themselves going forward. That is why the phrase, "shyness effect" was coined, as a way to excuse the disappearance of the alleged patterns in future experiments.

[Alan Mendelson]

Nobody denied "random patterns." What is being denied is the idea that identifying "random patterns" in the past is of any value going forward. It has no predictive value.

That was the point of mentioning the JB Rhine experiments. Identifying some assumed anomaly in the past data as a pattern was of no value in predicting the future data.

We don't know that yet UNLESS you have already charted hundreds or thousands of video poker plays and examined their chart patterns. Have you? I haven't so I don't know.
Weinstein said you could use TA on anything and I want to investigate that. You, Arc and qua have your minds made up.

[redietz]

My mind's not made up. I think there's a good chance some of the vp machines, at some points in time, are rigged to be non-random. So if you can discover some non-random machines, you will have done everyone a great service.

[fpdw2015]

Let's see you prove that lie.

Aces Up, er, Rob, its in the FREEvpFREE archives. Anyone can look it up.

[arcimede$]

This proves you are clueless about this. If you were to chart coin flips you would never get anything but a flat line that is +/- one position. TA tells us that the next flip would also be +/- one.

And you thought you were being smart?

And how many correct predictions does that information lead to?

[arcimede$]

We don't know that yet UNLESS you have already charted hundreds or thousands of video poker plays and examined their chart patterns. Have you? I haven't so I don't know.
Weinstein said you could use TA on anything and I want to investigate that. You, Arc and qua have your minds made up.

Alan, if you can figure out how to predict random events then you will be richer beyond your wildest dreams. Just think of all the lotteries you will knock off. No casino would be safe from your legendary exploits. Even a card shuffler would be no match for you. Hey, you can even hack into any security system in the world.

Da plane, da plane ...

[Alan Mendelson]

My mind's not made up. I think there's a good chance some of the vp machines, at some points in time, are rigged to be non-random. So if you can discover some non-random machines, you will have done everyone a great service.

This has nothing to do with rigged machines.

I am wasting my time having this discussion here.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, if you can figure out how to predict random events then you will be richer beyond your wildest dreams. Just think of all the lotteries you will knock off. No casino would be safe from your legendary exploits. Even a card shuffler would be no match for you. Hey, you can even hack into any security system in the world.

Da plane, da plane ...

Why am I wasting my time? Why?

[arcimede$]

Why am I wasting my time? Why?

That's what most of us are wondering.

[quahaug]

Why am I wasting my time? Why?

Because sooner or later if you just keep at it and don't give up or listen to those wascaly wabbits, 2+2 some great and glorious day in the far far future when we're all dead and buried (even Rob), will indeed equal 5.

[quahaug]

This has nothing to do with rigged machines.

I am wasting my time having this discussion here.

Because no one else is dumb enough to engage you in your ridiculous musings?

[Alan Mendelson]

Not one of you has addressed the question or what charting and TA is about. Everything you have discussed and mentioned has nothing to do with the question or the problem at hand. It's as if I said "how do I prove the sky is blue?" and you say "we know the grass is green."

[quahaug]

We don't know that yet UNLESS you have already charted hundreds or thousands of video poker plays and examined their chart patterns. Have you? I haven't so I don't know.
Weinstein said you could use TA on anything and I want to investigate that. You, Arc and qua have your minds made up.

How about you e-mail this guy and ask him if he thinks you can chart gambling like stocks. By the way I never did mention that
technical analysis isn't particularly successful when it's used for trading compared to broad market averages. Your oftentimes better off with an index fund.

[quahaug]

Not one of you has addressed the question or what charting and TA is about. Everything you have discussed and mentioned has nothing to do with the question or the problem at hand. It's as if I said "how do I prove the sky is blue?" and you say "we know the grass is green."

Wrong again Alan. It's as if you said, How do I prove thee sky is green. That's the correct analogy.

[fpdw2015]

Aces Up, er, Rob, its in the FREEvpFREE archives. Anyone can look it up.

I went back and took a look. In June of 2005 a new poster, aces_hii, showed up. He and Rob were complimentary to each other but bashed everyone else. It was easy to tell that aces_hii was a Singer sockpuppet because he had the same style of bashing that Rob did. On September 11, 2005, a post was made by aces_hii. But it was Rob telling everyone the dates that he would be in Las Vegas. When Rob seen the mistake he made he immediately came with a post telling everyone his account had been terminated and aces_hii loaned him his account. Singer was supposed to be in Arizona and aces_hii was supposed to be on the east coast. Fieldcommand traced both Rob's and aces_hii's messages back to the same IP address. The jig was up.

If you have a yahoo account then you can go to FREEvpFREE, scroll down to Message History on the bottom and click on September 2005 to see it for yourself. Singer had at least two other sockpuppets on FREEvpFREE, bonuspokergod and superquadfullhouseroyalistic.

[Alan Mendelson]

How about you e-mail this guy and ask him if he thinks you can chart gambling like stocks.

And what's wrong with also asking others here on the forum if they have tried or considered it?

By the way I never did mention that technical analysis isn't particularly successful when it's used for trading compared to broad market averages. Your oftentimes better off with an index fund.

There are also charts for the index funds. That's how I used to trade index options.

[quahaug]

I went back and took a look. In June of 2005 a new poster, aces_hii, showed up. He and Rob were complimentary to each other but bashed everyone else. It was easy to tell that aces_hii was a Singer sockpuppet because he had the same style of bashing that Rob did. On September 11, 2005, a post was made by aces_hii. But it was Rob telling everyone the dates that he would be in Las Vegas. When Rob seen the mistake he made he immediately came with a post telling everyone his account had been terminated and aces_hii loaned him his account. Singer was supposed to be in Arizona and aces_hii was supposed to be on the east coast. Fieldcommand traced both Rob's and aces_hii's messages back to the same IP address. The jig was up.

If you have a yahoo account then you can go to FREEvpFREE, scroll down to Message History on the bottom and click on September 2005 to see it for yourself. Singer had at least two other sockpuppets on FREEvpFREE, bonuspokergod and superquadfullhouseroyalistic.

I've tried a few times to check that forum out but I had a hard time accessing it. It seemed very unorganized.

[Alan Mendelson]

Wrong again Alan. It's as if you said, How do I prove thee sky is green. That's the correct analogy.

I never made a judgment or decision. Go back to my original post.