The Sisyphean Gambler

[Alan Mendelson]

As I said before, I should win about 40-50% of my sessions,

Arc, Im glad you're back and I hope you get things settled at home. Always nice to hear about wins. What denomination were you playing to win $1700? Obviously, $1700 is more impressive at quarters than at $5 or $25.

My other nagging question is this: If you win 40-50% of your sessions, how much are you able to lose during the losing sessions to still have a profitable win?

[arcimede$]

To be honest the biggest highs have been at home. My wife is now at her highest weight in a couple of years. Many of her problems have been handled and, with any luck I can see her continuing to improve significantly.

My other highs this year have been at my recreational hobbies. At the end of the bowling season I had an accomplishment that is likely only been done by a very few people worldwide. I bowled 3 consecutive 800 series. And, just last week, I had a one under par round on the golf course.

But what about our favorite dufus? He can't think past casinos and his hatred of anyone who has been successful. His own existence now confined to trailer parks and living with the very people he has denigrated for years. Karma is a bitch.

[redietz]

I do not grasp what significance lifestyle situations have to do with anything discussed here. For the record, I am a satanist, a regular at The Green Door, a card-carrying member of the Man-Boy Love Society, I drive an old DeLorean, I'm too far left for the Socialist party to admit me, I have a wheelchair fetish, and --horror of horrors -- I fully intend to attend Penn and Teller's Dougnut and Bacon Party on Friday, July 13th, at South Point. Any comments?

[slingshot]

To be honest the biggest highs have been at home. My wife is now at her highest weight in a couple of years. Many of her problems have been handled and, with any luck I can see her continuing to improve significantly.

My other highs this year have been at my recreational hobbies. At the end of the bowling season I had an accomplishment that is likely only been done by a very few people worldwide. I bowled 3 consecutive 800 series. And, just last week, I had a one under par round on the golf course.

But what about our favorite dufus? He can't think past casinos and his hatred of anyone who has been successful. His own existence now confined to trailer parks and living with the very people he has denigrated for years. Karma is a bitch.

One under is a great score. I only did it once in 18 holes-when I was in college. Funny thing. I shot 40 on the front nine and was totally embarrassed and just started basically bunting it down the fairway on the second nine. I had given up, basically. Shot 31 on the back nine. Maybe a person can try too hard!

[redietz]

The bowling, to me, is a great accomplishment. I know some people who are very, very good, and I don't think any of them shot three consecutive 800s. That is extraordinary.

[Rob.Singer]

Part of arci's very boring and detested "existence" these days must include references to accomplishments that would put him "over the edge". What else in the form of entertainment does he have? So his wife is supposedly "gaining weight". He knows what's going on, he knows the odds, and if he didn't have a writing forum that helps keep his chin up, he'd absolutely be losing it--although we'd never know to what extent that was. I like to think of it as to an extent commensurate with his despicable actions in dealing with the tragedy of another human being. As we know, what goes around ALWAYS truly does come around.

This morning, a friend and former student of mine called and asked if I were playing any vp up here while we're stopped in Reno. I said there wouldn't be any more play until we returned from our tour of the Oregon coast, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado in early October. Got lots of hikes planned, tours, and just plain healthy living. I know it isn't throwing balls at pins down an alley or feeding the Indian casino machines, but it'll do.

BTW, arci fell right into his own little trap again when he just couldnt't wait to tell everyone about his so-called "winning 4 out of 5 sessions". But notice how he once again, just as he has always done for years, suddenly explained how he had been in an 8 out of 9 session losing streak. Phew...he made it out of it--just as the math predicts! Now how come he was never able to announce that losing streak when he was experiencing it? Well, all that means is he's still in the middle of it, only he has always been too embarrassed and unwilling to say he was losing, unless of course, he could "soften the blow" with a tale of currently winning.

Anyone who believes in the words of a hack like this is gullible. Oh what's that? You pandering to him because of his tough life at an age when OTHER retirees are enjoying their lives fully?

[arcimede$]

Arc, Im glad you're back and I hope you get things settled at home. Always nice to hear about wins. What denomination were you playing to win $1700? Obviously, $1700 is more impressive at quarters than at $5 or $25.

My other nagging question is this: If you win 40-50% of your sessions, how much are you able to lose during the losing sessions to still have a profitable win?

I play at the dollar denomination ($5/hand). It is the highest available for this game.

For the two previous years (2010 and 2011) my average win is around $2400 and the average loss is about -$1200. I won 57 times and lost 67 times.

[arcimede$]

Part of arci's very boring and detested "existence" these days must include references to accomplishments that would put him "over the edge". What else in the form of entertainment does he have?

What more do I need?

BTW, arci fell right into his own little trap again when he just couldnt't wait to tell everyone about his so-called "winning 4 out of 5 sessions". But notice how he once again, just as he has always done for years, suddenly explained how he had been in an 8 out of 9 session losing streak. Phew...he made it out of it--just as the math predicts! Now how come he was never able to announce that losing streak when he was experiencing it? Well, all that means is he's still in the middle of it, only he has always been too embarrassed and unwilling to say he was losing, unless of course, he could "soften the blow" with a tale of currently winning.

I've mentioned losing many times. I even commented last year about only winning 30% of my sessions the first few months. However, I don't normally discuss either my winning or losing. But, it gets the dufus in such a knot when I mention my winning that I do it just to see him get all frustrated and make silly comments like this one.

Anyone who believes in the words of a hack like this is gullible.

Pure projection.

[arcimede$]

The bowling, to me, is a great accomplishment. I know some people who are very, very good, and I don't think any of them shot three consecutive 800s. That is extraordinary.

Thanks, it's probably on a level of shooting a competitive 59 in golf. Although probably a little more rare. It's something I would never have conceived possible before it happened.

As for golf my best golf score was a 69 last year (2 under par). While a good score for me it is nothing special for a good golfer and nothing even close to this bowling feat.

[Rob.Singer]

I sense a bit of frustration in the points arci responds to....and especially in the ones he doesn't. Notice his nervous but hilarious response on why he never, ever tells anyone he is in a losing streak UNLESS he can caveat that news with how he has overcome it within the AP framework. As he creates a world of make believe for two, he can't help himself as he succumbs to the actual truth. But I don't really blame Alan & redietz for pandering to the guy. They feel sorry for him, while I know him as a long-time pathological liar on the Internet who desperately requires the acceptance and sympathy of the others and constantly makes up scenarios of "fun" even as his other half suffers--and thus, the stories of an AP who does nothing but win while the Indians have no problem with it.

Here'a point to think about. Here we have arci saying how he only gets out of the house and away from other people's problems, once a week as he goes to the casino for his fix. Now all of a sudden he conjures up bowling alley and golf course escapes, with results that will likely get honest folks' blood boiling a little.

It's fun watching him bury himself.

[arcimede$]

But I don't really blame Alan & redietz for pandering to the guy. They feel sorry for him, while I know him as a long-time pathological liar on the Internet who desperately requires the acceptance and sympathy of the others

More projection. Perfect insight into what the dufus thinks of himself.

[Alan Mendelson]

I sense a bit of frustration in the points arci responds to....he creates a world of make believe...

Rob, what is your point? If you are trying to discredit his video poker play you're failing because you are hiding your video poker arguments in an overgrown forest of personal insults. You really are your worst enemy.

I was hoping you would respond to Arc's claims about session wins and session losses. You didn't and you posted more dribble.

Arc, thanks for responding about your session wins and session losses. Now a question: how do you set or how do you decide when to stop playing when you are losing? Is there a set limit of about $1200 or is it flexible and if flexible according to what? Thanks.

[redietz]

And arci, what is your normal length of time playing? Do you set an hours-playing limit? Does your fatigue limit vary greatly or is it pretty consistent?

[arcimede$]

Arc, thanks for responding about your session wins and session losses. Now a question: how do you set or how do you decide when to stop playing when you are losing? Is there a set limit of about $1200 or is it flexible and if flexible according to what? Thanks.

As I've mentioned before I play about 6-7 hours each trip unless I run out of the money I bring with me before then. That only happens about 5% of the time and even then I've usually played 5-6 hours.

The time is based on the amount of time it takes for me to feel I'm getting tired. I usually take a half hour break in the middle.

[Alan Mendelson]

One more question, Arc. How do you decide to quit when you have a profit? Is fatigue the deciding factor, or is there some point where you want to "lock in" or "protect" your profits?

I think based on your previous answers you are going to say that there is no reason to quit when you have a profit to lock it up or protect it, and you will only stop because of fatigue. But I just had to ask.

[arcimede$]

One more question, Arc. How do you decide to quit when you have a profit? Is fatigue the deciding factor, or is there some point where you want to "lock in" or "protect" your profits?

I think based on your previous answers you are going to say that there is no reason to quit when you have a profit to lock it up or protect it, and you will only stop because of fatigue. But I just had to ask.

The only time profit might come into play is if I hit a nice jackpot in what would typically be my last hour of play. If I already have played over 6 hours and hit for a $1000 or more then I would probably quit shortly after that time.

[Alan Mendelson]

The only time profit might come into play is if I hit a nice jackpot in what would typically be my last hour of play. If I already have played over 6 hours and hit for a $1000 or more then I would probably quit shortly after that time.

OK, but what if that last hour big win didn't give you a winning session? What if you were still in the hole?

edited to add:

And if you meant that "hit for a $1000 or more" meant a profit of a thousand dollars or more, then really you're not much different than the rest of us who would quit to preserve a big win. Quite frankly, a thousand dollar profit is one heck of a win goal for someone playing dollar video poker. Rob has a win goal of $2500 and he's willing to play right up to $100 machines to get it, and says he will usually reach it at the $10 level. Me? I'd be darn happy with a $1,000 profit playing $5 games now. (I wasn't like that in the past but I have since scaled back my win goals.)

Arc, I was expecting you to say that if you had a $1,000 win you might as well keep playing your normal routine -- whether that be six hours or reaching your point of fatigue --- because picking a random exit point would make no sense in your do-it-by-the-math world.

[arcimede$]

OK, but what if that last hour big win didn't give you a winning session? What if you were still in the hole?

It would depend on how I felt. If I felt good then I would probably continue. If I was tired I would quit.

And if you meant that "hit for a $1000 or more" meant a profit of a thousand dollars or more, then really you're not much different than the rest of us who would quit to preserve a big win. Quite frankly, a thousand dollar profit is one heck of a win goal for someone playing dollar video poker. Rob has a win goal of $2500 and he's willing to play right up to $100 machines to get it, and says he will usually reach it at the $10 level. Me? I'd be darn happy with a $1,000 profit playing $5 games now. (I wasn't like that in the past but I have since scaled back my win goals.)

But, I'm talking about having played the minimum amount already, so it has nothing at all to do with win goals. It's just a factor in my last hour of play as I'm already starting to feel the fatigue. It's just something that gets me off my butt.

Arc, I was expecting you to say that if you had a $1,000 win you might as well keep playing your normal routine -- whether that be six hours or reaching your point of fatigue --- because picking a random exit point would make no sense in your do-it-by-the-math world.

I'm already in my normal routine. I've already played 6 hours or more. So, it's just down to deciding the precise minute I'd leave which really doesn't make too much difference.

I also usually play to a $100 boundary. Again, no reason other than making the bookkeeping easier.

[Alan Mendelson]

You've mentioned playing for a "minimum amount" to keep up your various "levels" which I guess refer to comps and free play, etc. Do you keep playing for the minimum amount of time if you are having a bad day? You mentioned that only 5% of the time you've exhausted the money you bring with you. Is losing your day's bankroll acceptable or just a "cost of doing business" or like the rest of mere mortals, do you also feel like a dumb schmuck?? (LOL)

[arcimede$]

You've mentioned playing for a "minimum amount" to keep up your various "levels" which I guess refer to comps and free play, etc. Do you keep playing for the minimum amount of time if you are having a bad day? You mentioned that only 5% of the time you've exhausted the money you bring with you. Is losing your day's bankroll acceptable or just a "cost of doing business" or like the rest of mere mortals, do you also feel like a dumb schmuck?? (LOL)

Completely acceptable and expected about 5% of the time. If you can't take the heat then stay out of the ... casino.

I never feel "dumb" when something that is expected happens. I might feel a little unlucky especially if I'm on a run of bad results. However, it all balances out eventually and approaches expectation.

Look, no one feels "good" when they have a big loss, but understanding the math gives one an understanding of the situation. That takes the edge off any negative feelings and allows you to look ahead to better results.