Content Analysis of this Las Vegas Forum

[jbjb]

Glad you're sticking with it, Alan. This a.m. I hit the Royal in diamonds. Thought it was just gonna be another scare w/4 to the Royal. And I'll be the first to admit, with $945 in my pocket, the thought was there- just go hit a small quad and get it an even $1,000. But I walked and my wife even asked if I ever went to play- I was only there 30 minutes or so. I'm hooked on leaving!!

Nice hit!! But as said thousands of times, you'll be back trying to get that $55 and more. Makes absolutely ZERO difference whether to try now, next week or next decade.

[RS__]

Alan, ahem.

Then it depends on how bad the variance is (or how bad it can be) compared to your advantage. If you're playing something with a 0.5%, then yes, you're going to have to hit a royal or else you're gonna lose. (Play enough hands, you'll hit a royal.) Or if you play something with a 5% advantage, you don't need to hit a royal to come out a winner. And with a 15% advantage, you don't have to hit a RF, SF, or any 4oaks to come out a winner.

PS: I rarely play games with a very small advantage (2% or lower). I rarely play full pay deuces or those multiplier days at Boyd/South Point/etc. that push a game from a small loser to a small winner.

[slingshot]

Congratulations and if you have a photo please post in our Big Casino Wins thread.

Alan, I have a problem. I have a small tablet and I've tried to send some pics on smaller wins to go along with some of my posts. When I come to manage attachments, my files, which are under a GALLERY ap do not appear and I can't seem to get an acceptable URL #. Also, I never expected to hit a Royal, and left my tablet at home. But what am I doing wrong. I can send pics on yahoo, but not here, if that helps.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, ahem.

Did you expect me to say something?

[slingshot]

Nice hit!! But as said thousands of times, you'll be back trying to get that $55 and more. Makes absolutely ZERO difference whether to try now, next week or next decade.

You got it EXACTLY right! I won't be expecting another Royal, hoping for quad 2's,3's or 4's for $100, but satisfied with a small quad for, well, $55! And if 4 A's w/without kicker comes along- even better.

[jbjb]

You got it EXACTLY right! I won't be expecting another Royal, hoping for quad 2's,3's or 4's for $100, but satisfied with a small quad for, well, $55!

The point is, you guys seen to think trying next time is different from this time when it's a fact that it isn't.

[slingshot]

The point is, you guys seen to think trying next time is different from this time when it's a fact that it isn't.

What???? If I just get 4 J's on bp for say $40(w/free play included), or a straight flush (I've hit 3 the last month) for $70, etc. that IS different!! And if I lose my $100 (one session), I'm done!

[RS__]

Did you expect me to say something?

Yeah, I did. I thought we had a good dialogue(?) going.

[jbjb]

What???? If I just get 4 J's on bp for say $40(w/free play included), or a straight flush (I've hit 3 the last month) for $70, etc. that IS different!! And if I lose my $100 (one session), I'm done!

4 J's on BP pay $30 (125 credits minutes the 5 credit bet) and a straight flush pays $61.50.

[slingshot]

f

4 J's on BP pay $30 (125 credits minutes the 5 credit bet) and a straight flush pays $61.50.

Did you notice "with free play"? I play Rob's artt strategy at 5, 10, & 25c and many times I have extra credit buildups when I hit quads. I love this strategy and many times a $15 freeplay not only lasts for some time but also increases. I hit 4 4's two weeks ago on bp and the cashout was $85.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yeah, I did. I thought we had a good dialogue(?) going.

We had an excellent dialogue. You made your points and I made mine and never the twain shall meet. Thanks.

[jbjb]

f
Did you notice "with free play"? I play Rob's artt strategy at 5, 10, & 25c and many times I have extra credit buildups when I hit quads. I love this strategy and many times a $15 freeplay not only lasts for some time but also increases. I hit 4 4's two weeks ago on bp and the cashout was $85.

That's fine. I run my fp through once, cash out, then leave.

[Alan Mendelson]

That's fine. I run my fp through once, cash out, then leave.

Nothing wrong with that except eventually the free play runs out. That's what I used to do at Pechanga.

There was a time when I played at Pechanga a lot -- and I was given a lot of free play. But after I switched to Rincon and just stopped at Pechanga only to run my free play through, I watched my Free Play weekly offers drop from $350 per week to $100 per week to $30 per week and then $5 a month which wasn't worth making the drive into the parking lot.

[Rob.Singer]

The point is, you guys seen to think trying next time is different from this time when it's a fact that it isn't.

Here's what you're not seeing jbjb. When someone plays for a stop-win goal and makes it TODAY, then leaves, it's real profit. It can be spent for real products and services, and for most people who play as I taught them or anything similar to that, they have no need to and usually don't just add it to their gaming bankroll for their next casino visit.

Your point is likely that this $55 will probably be lost the next time or the time after that, probably because they're playing a 98% game instead of a 102% game? Which of course makes little sense, since that small % difference will have little overall effect when playing a short period of time, each time.

The short term/goal oriented player understands that there is no rule, written or otherwise, that states the math MUST snatch back today's profit sometime down the road. And what the long term player completely misses is the fact that if a strategy is capable of yielding a profit from a relatively easy winning hand today, it is very likely to do the same over & over again--and at times with huge resulting profits, which from my 15+ years of experience, come much more often than those huge losing sessions.

And one more point: recreational players who play in this manner simply move past "the last session" immediately, whether they won or lost. It's over and means nothing after it ended. Today the go back to play with a new roll of disposable cash, having nothing to do with the last win because it was already spent on enhancements. If this player happens to lose $40 today, he doesn't subtract it from the $55 win because that win is today non-existent.

But at the same time, when the player plays such a strategy that has an 80% session win rate, he expects many winning sessions, with some being higher and much higher than that $55. The reason you strict AP guys can't understand how overall profitable this method of play is, is simply because you won't see it for what it is (a short term strategy) and instead, force yourselves into for some reason lumping all these sessions into some long term theoretical situation, and then saying it's a loser because the games were slightly under 100%....while rejecting the actuality that the big winning sessions are almost always way larger than the big losing sessions, in addition to the many smaller winning sessions.

This is why I say, if I trained everyone to play in this manner, the people who play 20 or more hours a week would be spared a wasted portion of their lives, and the casinos would no longer be able to stay operating.

[jbjb]

Here's what you're not seeing jbjb. When someone plays for a stop-win goal and makes it TODAY, then leaves, it's real profit. It can be spent for real products and services, and for most people who play as I taught them or anything similar to that, they have no need to and usually don't just add it to their gaming bankroll for their next casino visit.

Your point is likely that this $55 will probably be lost the next time or the time after that, probably because they're playing a 98% game instead of a 102% game? Which of course makes little sense, since that small % difference will have little overall effect when playing a short period of time, each time.

The short term/goal oriented player understands that there is no rule, written or otherwise, that states the math MUST snatch back today's profit sometime down the road. And what the long term player completely misses is the fact that if a strategy is capable of yielding a profit from a relatively easy winning hand today, it is very likely to do the same over & over again--and at times with huge resulting profits, which from my 15+ years of experience, come much more often than those huge losing sessions.

And one more point: recreational players who play in this manner simply move past "the last session" immediately, whether they won or lost. It's over and means nothing after it ended. Today the go back to play with a new roll of disposable cash, having nothing to do with the last win because it was already spent on enhancements. If this player happens to lose $40 today, he doesn't subtract it from the $55 win because that win is today non-existent. But at the same time, when the player plays such a strategy that has an 80% session win rate, he expects many winning sessions, with some being higher and much higher than that $55. The reason you strict AP guys can't understand how overall profitable this method of play is, is simply because you won't see it for what it is (a short term strategy) and instead, force yourselves into for some reason lumping all these sessions into some long term theoretical situation, and then saying it's a loser because the games were slightly under 100%....while rejecting the actuality that the big winning sessions are almost always way larger than the big losing sessions, in addition to the many smaller winning sessions.

This is why I say, if I trained everyone to play in this manner, the people who play 20 or more hours a week would be spared a wasted portion of their lives, and the casinos would no longer be able to stay operating.

No, my point isn't that it will or won't be lost the next time. The point is that it makes no difference. As been said before, just take a walk around the joint then start over from your minimum. Not debating whether it works or not. Just the fact that the time difference doesn't matter.

[RS__]

No, my point isn't that it will or won't be lost the next time. The point is that it makes no difference. As been said before, just take a walk around the joint then start over from your minimum. Not debating whether it works or not. Just the fact that the time difference doesn't matter.

If you could go into (relatively) any Las Vegas casino, make some $1,000+ per hour, do so with ease, no worry about the casino catching you or throwing you out....would you take week-long breaks in between sessions? If I could make $1k+/hour, unmolested, I'd make that my full time job. No need to bitch about the smoke in the casino or the degenerates, and I certainly wouldn't write a book (or 2) about this strategy. You'd have to be stupid NOT to be playing as much as possible.

It's laughable that someone can claim such an awesome winning system, but rarely ever played....and now he's "retired"!

[Alan Mendelson]

No, my point isn't that it will or won't be lost the next time. The point is that it makes no difference. As been said before, just take a walk around the joint then start over from your minimum. Not debating whether it works or not. Just the fact that the time difference doesn't matter.

You're right jbjb. The time difference doesn't matter.

What matters is that you have won money and you are leaving with it.

You may decide to come back in five weeks or you may decide to come back in five minutes. You do what you're comfortable with.

I've been considering what I will call the "AP Strategy" and I think it's very much like a business strategy. Some businesses are willing to accept losses during a certain time of the year because they know they will make up for it at other times of the year. For example: the ski equipment business. Ski Stores don't expect to make money April thru October, but they expect to have big profits November thru March.

The "Recreational Player Strategy" is different from the "AP Strategy." As Recreational Players we don't want and are not prepared for losing sessions. Using the Ski Store analogy -- we don't want to lose money half of the year to see a big winning season during the other half of the year. We Recreational Players would rather take our profits when they come even if they are small; we shun the idea of losing today because we think we will have a "boom time" later.

If I had the personality and mindset of an AP I might have opened a Ski Store. Instead, I like getting a paycheck every week and so I went into a line of work where I do get a check every week and sometimes I get a bonus. It's the same when I go to a casino -- I'm happy getting a small profit and if I happen to get a bonus I'm overjoyed. This is why I can accept and use a quit when ahead strategy.

[jbjb]

If you don't want to lose money, you should NEVER enter a casino and make as much as one bet!

[Alan Mendelson]

If you don't want to lose money, you should NEVER enter a casino and make as much as one bet!

But as a recreational player I accept losing money. It's recreation. I could have spent the money on a cruise -- but I get seasick. I could have joined a golf club for $25,000 a year but I don't play golf.

[Alan Mendelson]

It's laughable that someone can claim such an awesome winning system, but rarely ever played....and now he's "retired"!

Perhaps the main ingredient of the winning system is to play rarely? Ya know... quit when ahead.