What is a "good bet" thread on the Wizard's forum

[nerakil]

Yep, looks like Silver Charm (who almost won the 1997 Triple Crown) scratched and with only 4 horses in the race, Gentlemen was a TMMLK lock of the century. Sorry you lost, Todd.

Gentlemen did race five more times after that day, though he never won again.

I was one of those said "bridge jumpers" in the mid-1990s. Do you remember a "can't lose" horse named Gentlemen? He was supposed to be up against another really good horse and a few scrubs at Hollywood Park, but the good opponent got scratched and it was just Gentlemen against the scrubs.

Because Hollywood Park cold not go lower than 1:20 payouts, everyone hammered Win and Place. I bet Place because it was the same 1:20 payout as Win!

Was sure it was free money. More than a million dollars (total, not mine) was wagered on Gentlemen, with very little on the other horses. There were only 5 horses total in the race.

Gentlemen ended up finishing last.

He actually got booed after the race.

Turned out that he had some major health issue which they didn't disclose. I don't believe he raced again.

Oh, and in your lottery example, yes, it's a good bet. However, it wouldn't be a wise bet to throw too much on it, given the insane variance.