Rob Singer discusses tipping

[RS__]

Generic you.

How do I know what people in general do? Because I'm not a fucking retard. I swear you're getting worse and worse as time goes on.

Coach, what would you do if you spent many (let's say several hundred) hours developing a winning gambling system?

A) Make $100k a year when you could easily be making $500k a year.
B) Troll forums.
C) Try to teach others how to use your system for free.
D) All of the above.

[Alan Mendelson]

A) Make $100k a year when you could easily be making $500k a year.

So I have to ask: are APs making $500K a year or $100K a year, or a million dollars a year?

[coach belly]

Generic you.

How do I know what people in general do? Because I'm not a fucking retard.

You don't know what people in general would do, you only know what you would do...and not a generic you, I'm talking about you poindexter.

When it comes to earning money, there is no generic one-size-fits-all approach...everybody's different, everybody's motivation differs.

You don't understand that because you are a fucking retard.

Some guys take all the OT they can get, and some don't take any because they don't want to spend that much time working, even though it's easy money.

You may be math-smart, but you're still a retard.

[redietz]

This falls in the category of the "anything's possible" argument.

Yes, it's possible that Rob blew 40K a year for years while spending the majority of his time away from his family on business and then devoting most of his USA time to video poker. Then it's possible he developed a winning system somehow in a relatively short period of time due to some epiphanies or math insights that nobody else has had. Then it's possible that he decided that time with his neglected family was so important that he didn't want to work OT, but rather took the risk vp might change or casinos would get wise and valued family time above that, so he limited himself to making 100K a year for three years while getting back to even, then continued to win (but at 100K a year) thereafter until he had just enough money for two RVs and a comfortable life with his pensions. And then he retired.

It's also possible he wrote eight years of columns for Gaming Today without referencing number of hands played, where, number of four-of-a-kinds and royals and so on, and continued that for 5000 posts here, and lots of posts elsewhere. It's possible he was training some hundred or more vp ninjas all this time, who as a group have stayed silent due to their jedi training and devotion. It's possible he is willing to train people in this system for free while not detailing the system in any clear, cogent way publicly because he has to make judgements while playing that nobody else can make regarding hot and cold machines and other tricky things.

Coach belly is absolutely correct. All of this is possible. Just like it is possible to play Powerball and win it three times. Or play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime.

It is on the readers' shoulders to evaluate just how likely it is.

[Alan Mendelson]

Or play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime.

It is on the readers' shoulders to evaluate just how likely it is.

If the game returns better than 98% I think it is very likely you could be ahead over 3 million hands. 3 million hands gives you a lot of potential for big wins to overcome that 2% or smaller edge.

[a2a3dseddie]

Or play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime.

It is on the readers' shoulders to evaluate just how likely it is.

If the game returns better than 98% I think it is very likely you could be ahead over 3 million hands. 3 million hands gives you a lot of potential for big wins to overcome that 2% or smaller edge.

Maybe one of the math guys can chime in here. After 3 million hands at $1, $2, or $5 VP on a 98% machine, what is the probability you would be ahead $1 million dollars?

[Alan Mendelson]

Or play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime.

It is on the readers' shoulders to evaluate just how likely it is.

If the game returns better than 98% I think it is very likely you could be ahead over 3 million hands. 3 million hands gives you a lot of potential for big wins to overcome that 2% or smaller edge.

Maybe one of the math guys can chime in here. After 3 million hands at $1, $2, or $5 VP on a 98% machine, what is the probability you would be ahead $1 million dollars?

Why does it have to be one million dollars? How about being ahead $100?

The question is can you be ahead at a negative expectation game. It's not about being ahead by one million dollars.

If you are trying to make this about Singer's claims about being ahead one million dollars over ten years you'd have to know how many hands he played. We don't know.

But redietz provided a specific question: "play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime"?

[redietz]

If the game returns better than 98% I think it is very likely you could be ahead over 3 million hands. 3 million hands gives you a lot of potential for big wins to overcome that 2% or smaller edge.

Maybe one of the math guys can chime in here. After 3 million hands at $1, $2, or $5 VP on a 98% machine, what is the probability you would be ahead $1 million dollars?

Why does it have to be one million dollars? How about being ahead $100?

The question is can you be ahead at a negative expectation game. It's not about being ahead by one million dollars.

If you are trying to make this about Singer's claims about being ahead one million dollars over ten years you'd have to know how many hands he played. We don't know.

But redietz provided a specific question: "play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime"?

The three million wasn't meant as an estimate of Rob's play, but assigning a conservative minimum number of hands to Rob is pretty easy.

I think he claims to have played professionally for 10 years. If we lowball that to the eight years he was writing for Gaming Today, and say he played at least 20 hours a week as a professional, which is also lowballing it, and then say he played 50 weeks a year, that would be 8 X 20 X 50 = 8000 hours playing vp as a professional. This is a very conservative figure, as a professional may play quite a lot more per week, and this doesn't count the years Rob played before or after deciding he was a pro. But tossing all that aside, we have 8000 hours X 500 hands an hour (a reasonable, slightly lowball figure), which would tally up to somewhere around 4 million hands. Bear in mind, this includes just eight of the 25 years Rob has played video poker, so it may be a really low figure.

So Rob's claim to have won a million dollars should probably be figured in a context of his having played a minimum of 4 million hands of negative EV video poker. If my math seems way off in any regard, please let me know.

I'm not a math guy (although I played on the math department intramural basketball team at Penn State and stay at Holiday Inn Express), so I leave it to the math people to do the math, as they say, as to the likelihood of Rob doing what he's done.

[jbjb]

I've said this before, the amount he's claimed to have win is irrelevant. PROVE the system works mathematically! Any schlub can get "lucky" for a while. If his system worked, it'll work for eternity. And is why using stop losses/wins are stupid with it.

[RS__]

A) Make $100k a year when you could easily be making $500k a year.

So I have to ask: are APs making $500K a year or $100K a year, or a million dollars a year?

APs don't have games that are available to them to be played 24/7. There aren't many casinos where you can get 5%+ advantages on VP. It's hard to find a property you can sit down and count cards 8 hours a day. The only thing you can do 24/7, off the top of my head, is play something like FPDW or 10/7 DB.....which is basically minimum wage.

You can play Rob's strategy at just about every LV strip property. And you can play most of his strategy at many off-strip LV casinos (then drive to the strip to play $100 denoms, if losing).

Most professional APs are making more than what Rob claims to have made ($100k/year). That's gotta hurt our poor Rob Stringer.

[RS__]

Maybe one of the math guys can chime in here. After 3 million hands at $1, $2, or $5 VP on a 98% machine, what is the probability you would be ahead $1 million dollars?

Why does it have to be one million dollars? How about being ahead $100?

The question is can you be ahead at a negative expectation game. It's not about being ahead by one million dollars.

If you are trying to make this about Singer's claims about being ahead one million dollars over ten years you'd have to know how many hands he played. We don't know.

But redietz provided a specific question: "play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime"?

The three million wasn't meant as an estimate of Rob's play, but assigning a conservative minimum number of hands to Rob is pretty easy.

I think he claims to have played professionally for 10 years. If we lowball that to the eight years he was writing for Gaming Today, and say he played at least 20 hours a week as a professional, which is also lowballing it, and then say he played 50 weeks a year, that would be 8 X 20 X 50 = 8000 hours playing vp as a professional. This is a very conservative figure, as a professional may play quite a lot more per week, and this doesn't count the years Rob played before or after deciding he was a pro. But tossing all that aside, we have 8000 hours X 500 hands an hour (a reasonable, slightly lowball figure), which would tally up to somewhere around 4 million hands. Bear in mind, this includes just eight of the 25 years Rob has played video poker, so it may be a really low figure.

So Rob's claim to have won a million dollars should probably be figured in a context of his having played a minimum of 4 million hands of negative EV video poker. If my math seems way off in any regard, please let me know.

I'm not a math guy (although I played on the math department intramural basketball team at Penn State and stay at Holiday Inn Express), so I leave it to the math people to do the math, as they say, as to the likelihood of Rob doing what he's done.

I've done the math before....it's something like 4 or 5 standard deviations.

[coach belly]

Coach belly is absolutely correct. All of this is possible.

I don't disagree that I'm correct, but I don't recall commenting on the possibility of all the scenarios you listed.

Which of the scenarios that you listed do you find unlikely?...for instance, this one?...

it's possible he developed a winning system somehow in a relatively short period of time

Are you dismissing RS's scenario of Rob spending hundreds of hours developing his system?...or is hundreds of hours considered a relatively short period of time?

[jbjb]

Rob didn't develop anything. His "up as you lose" progression has been around longer than any of us have been alive.

[redietz]

I don't know how long Rob took to develop his system. As you'll note, I said "it's possible," not "he did." From his descriptions, he implemented it pretty quickly -- went from losing to winning overnight. Since I was spending 100 days a year in Las Vegas at the time Rob appeared in Gaming Today, I was early on aware of the"origin story." I read maybe a third of his stuff, so I may have missed the parts where he pinned down that he started working on it a particular time, then perfected it and implemented it another time. I don't think he presented a timeline here as to how long it took him precisely. One would assume there would be notes or logs regarding that kind of thing that Rob might share at some point if he wanted, but I'm unaware if he has.

I don't know if Rob took hundreds of hours or had an epiphany. All I know is that he has not claimed some lengthy transition period or developmental process. But he may have been always working on it even when he was losing, so that could possibly (there's that word "possible" again) have been hundreds of hours. If you consider losing while playing part of the process of developing a winning system, I suppose he possibly spent hundreds of hours observing himself losing, and claims to have learned from that.

[coach belly]

I don't know how long Rob took to develop his system.

Are you saying that it's unlikely that he took a short period of time?

I'm asking because this is one of the scenarios you listed, along with winning the Powerball 3 times,
so it seems you consider a short period to have been unlikely.

Has Rob claimed to have taken a short period of time, or that had an epiphany?

[Count Room]

Why does it have to be one million dollars? How about being ahead $100?

The question is can you be ahead at a negative expectation game. It's not about being ahead by one million dollars.

If you are trying to make this about Singer's claims about being ahead one million dollars over ten years you'd have to know how many hands he played. We don't know.

But redietz provided a specific question: "play three million hands of negative EV video poker and be ahead lifetime"?

The three million wasn't meant as an estimate of Rob's play, but assigning a conservative minimum number of hands to Rob is pretty easy.

I think he claims to have played professionally for 10 years. If we lowball that to the eight years he was writing for Gaming Today, and say he played at least 20 hours a week as a professional, which is also lowballing it, and then say he played 50 weeks a year, that would be 8 X 20 X 50 = 8000 hours playing vp as a professional. This is a very conservative figure, as a professional may play quite a lot more per week, and this doesn't count the years Rob played before or after deciding he was a pro. But tossing all that aside, we have 8000 hours X 500 hands an hour (a reasonable, slightly lowball figure), which would tally up to somewhere around 4 million hands. Bear in mind, this includes just eight of the 25 years Rob has played video poker, so it may be a really low figure.

So Rob's claim to have won a million dollars should probably be figured in a context of his having played a minimum of 4 million hands of negative EV video poker. If my math seems way off in any regard, please let me know.

I'm not a math guy (although I played on the math department intramural basketball team at Penn State and stay at Holiday Inn Express), so I leave it to the math people to do the math, as they say, as to the likelihood of Rob doing what he's done.

I've done the math before....it's something like 4 or 5 standard deviations.

Aww, come on!! ANY old standard deviant can smack down a few standard deviations. Isn't that what makes America GREAT?

[coach belly]

I've said this before, the amount he's claimed to have win is irrelevant.

Yeah, yeah...we know...It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

[Biloxi Bill]

I think the Coach enjoys a (the) tip from Singer

[Ozzy]

I think the Coach enjoys a (the) tip from Singer

I completely agree with this statement BILL

[Rob.Singer]

Rob didn't develop anything. His "up as you lose" progression has been around longer than any of us have been alive.

Idiotic answer. You choose to know nothing about the strategy other than "it progresses as you lose" yet you proclaim the dumbest of conclusions.

No wonder you're afraid to be anything other than an anonymous internet coward.