BS AP's

[Biloxi Bill]

Don`t you have a forum to pay off that you just robbed of entry fees and disappeared?. Careful scumbag, or else I`ll post the link so everyone can see for themselves.

Go ahead and post the link, let everyone see for themselves.

Well whataya know...the site is now closed down...it appears the owner hightailed it away with $800 of members contest money...isn`t that right Gar..oops I mean Belly

[Alan Mendelson]

It was 18 and they said it never happened. And in their world of long term math they can't believe anyone winning on a 98% game. They'd say the world must be flat in that case.

I've heard it all.

Sorry. Eighteen yo's in a row is many times more improbable than being ahead after one million hands on a 98% game.

I know it's impossible... except I was there and saw it.

You and the other math experts were not there.

So if Coach wins you guys won't know what to do. You'll go catatonic. LOL

[quahaug]

It was 18 and they said it never happened. And in their world of long term math they can't believe anyone winning on a 98% game. They'd say the world must be flat in that case.

I've heard it all.

Sorry. Eighteen yo's in a row is many times more improbable than being ahead after one million hands on a 98% game.

I know it's impossible... except I was there and saw it.

You and the other math experts were not there.

So if Coach wins you guys won't know what to do. You'll go catatonic. LOL

I never said I didn't believe it. It is highly improbable though. I will take you at your word. My original point was that a person could be ahead after a million hands at a 98% game but it's highly unlikely. It would be totally about luck not skill at that point.

[Alan Mendelson]

Please explain why it would be "totally about luck" after a million hands? My feeling is that each and every hand of video poker is a combination of luck and skill.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm in total agreement with Dancer and Shackleford on the EV of video poker games. The EV is the same whether you play 1 hand, a thousand hands or a million hands.

Variance is a measure of short term volatility and should be considered on all video poker plays. A friend of mine, Doug Reul, a former writer for Video Poker Times, is the one who came up with the formula for measuring short term variance. I don't remember the formula exactly but it has something to do with square roots, probability and payoffs of each paying hand, then added all up. It's based on 600 hands per hour. The number given for the variance is expressed for one coin. Five-coin 7/5 Bonus Poker has a variance of 20.8. That means you will be up or down an average of 104 coins on your next 600 games.

At five-coin $1 7/5 Bonus Poker (98% EV) with a constant bet of $5 through one million hands you would be making a $5,000,000 total wager and your expected loss is $100,000. This is long term play and variance is pretty much a non-factor. Someone on vpFREE ran 10,000 simulations of one million hands at 7/5 Bonus Poker. Not one simulation was at breakeven or ahead at one million games. So I know the odds are longer than 10,000. This is why I made the statement I would have no problem laying 100 to 1 that you wouldn't be at breakeven or ahead at one million hands.

But take the case of 10,000 hands at single line. Would I lay 100 to 1 in that situation. Hell no!!! Variance is a factor at 10,000 hands. You would only be making a $50,000 wager and the expected loss is just $1000. Positive variance has a chance here. I don't know the exact odds of being at breakeven or ahead in this situation but I estimate it to be less than 1 in 40. I want to know the exact answer so I've downloaded Microsoft Office which has Excel, that you have to have in or for Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker to work. Hopefully I can find answers with this program. But first I have to go through the learning curve to use it.

Would I lay 100 to 1 on something that has less than a 1 in 40 chance of success. Get the hell out! No way in hell would I make such a bet.

Playing a five-coin penny denom 100 play is the equivalent of playing five-coin $1 single line. You are making the same betting increment, $5. The hands have the exact same EV's. On both games if you are dealt a high pair it has an EV of 1.53 units, 7.65 coins, $7.65. But if you play 10,000 hands on hundred play and call it one million hands you are wrong. You are not making the same total wager as on the single line, not even close. You would be making only a $50,000 wager, not 5 million. And the expected loss is just $1000. Like I said, positive variance has a chance here, not a very good one, but still has a chance.

If you want to play a penny hundred play on the bet, fine. But you will have to make a $5 bet on each deal, and make the same total wager as you would on a five-coin single game. And that means you will have to hit the deal button one million times.

[coach belly]

But if you play 10,000 hands on hundred play and call it one million hands you are wrong. You are not making the same total wager as on the single line, not even close. You would be making only a $50,000 wager, not 5 million.

10,000 100-play hands @ 1.25 per hand (quarters) is a 1,250,000 total wager,
which is the same total wager as one million hands @ $1.25 per hand.

But the bet was for total hands played, not total amount wagered.

I would change denomination whenever necessary, and finish ahead after one million hands.

I've read that works 80% percent of the time.

Any doubters can step up to the plate.

[regnis]

Coach--everyone says you can't win yet nobody will take you on. Why do you suppose??

[quahaug]

But if you play 10,000 hands on hundred play and call it one million hands you are wrong. You are not making the same total wager as on the single line, not even close. You would be making only a $50,000 wager, not 5 million.

10,000 100-play hands @ 1.25 per hand (quarters) is a 1,250,000 total wager,
which is the same total wager as one million hands @ $1.25 per hand.

But the bet was for total hands played, not total amount wagered.

I would change denomination whenever necessary, and finish ahead after one million hands.

I've read that works 80% percent of the time.

Any doubters can step up to the plate.

Changing denoms won't make any difference. It's the number of hands that matters.

[quahaug]

It takes a good size bankroll to play a million hands. Does coach have the bread? That would be my first question. How about an even money bet at 10.000 hands single or hundred play?

[quahaug]

Please explain why it would be "totally about luck" after a million hands? My feeling is that each and every hand of video poker is a combination of luck and skill.

Because assuming perfect play at a 98% game for a million hands you would have to hit twenty five extra royals to break even. That's after hitting over twenty to begin with for a total of almost fifty royals all together.

[coach belly]

How about an even money bet at 10.000 hands single or hundred play?

Are you offering to take the bet yourself, or brokering it for somebody else?

[coach belly]

Coach--everyone says you can't win yet nobody will take you on. Why do you suppose??

They scurry back into their hole after seeing their own shadow, the thought of facing an unfamiliar person must be terrifying.

[quahaug]

How about an even money bet at 10.000 hands single or hundred play?

Are you offering to take the bet yourself, or brokering it for somebody else?

That post was mainly directed towards Micky but would you take the bet? (From Micky)

[coach belly]

How about an even money bet at 10.000 hands single or hundred play?

Are you offering to take the bet yourself, or brokering it for somebody else?

That post was mainly directed towards Micky but would you take the bet? (From Micky)

I would consider taking the bet from anyone, but it all depends on the terms and conditions.

For instance, I would not accept the bet with the condition that the hands must be played in Montana.

On the other hand, I'm willing to play it out in AC anytime before Labor Day.

[Alan Mendelson]

Please explain why it would be "totally about luck" after a million hands? My feeling is that each and every hand of video poker is a combination of luck and skill.

Because assuming perfect play at a 98% game for a million hands you would have to hit twenty five extra royals to break even. That's after hitting over twenty to begin with for a total of almost fifty royals all together.

Why perfect play? What if he uses "special plays"?

[quahaug]

Please explain why it would be "totally about luck" after a million hands? My feeling is that each and every hand of video poker is a combination of luck and skill.

Because assuming perfect play at a 98% game for a million hands you would have to hit twenty five extra royals to break even. That's after hitting over twenty to begin with for a total of almost fifty royals all together.

Why perfect play? What if he uses "special plays"?

O.K. less than perfect play. Makes no difference, you need to get real lucky either way.

[mickeycrimm]

But if you play 10,000 hands on hundred play and call it one million hands you are wrong. You are not making the same total wager as on the single line, not even close. You would be making only a $50,000 wager, not 5 million.

10,000 100-play hands @ 1.25 per hand (quarters) is a 1,250,000 total wager,which is the same total wager as one million hands @ $1.25 per hand. But the bet was for total hands played, not total amount wagered. I would change denomination whenever necessary, and finish ahead after one million hands. I've read that works 80% percent of the time. Any doubters can step up to the plate.

Hundred play quarters is the equivalent of a $25 denom single line game, $125 per deal. The total wager of one million hands on either single play or hundred play would be $125,000,000. The expected loss would be $2,500,000.

YOU WILL HIT THE DEAL BUTTON ONE MILLION TIMES WHETHER ITS A SINGLE PLAY OR HUNDRED PLAY. YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HIT THE DEAL BUTTON JUST 10,000 TIMES ON A HUNDRED PLAY AND CALL IT ONE MILLION HANDS, BECAUSE IT IS NOT. IT IS 10,000 HANDS WITH 100 DRAWS TO EACH HAND, NOT ONE MILLION HANDS.

You were all raring to go on one million hands, jamming me up for a bet on it, until Singer put the bug in your ear about hundred plays. Then all of a sudden single line became to impractical to you.

AND YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO MANIPULATE BET SIZE OR DENOMINATION. WHATEVER YOUR FIRST BET IS WILL BE THE BET SIZE UNTIL YOU COMPLETE ONE MILLION HANDS.

I was not the one jamming you up for a bet. You've been jamming me up for a bet but you want to change it to something that was not said in my original statement. So if you want to waste my time with this nonsense then I will waste your time. The one million hand challenge was good enough for you before Singer mentioned hundred plays.

YOU DON'T GET TO CHANGE A DAMN THING, porkbelly.

[coach belly]

YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HIT THE DEAL BUTTON JUST 10,000 TIMES ON A HUNDRED PLAY AND CALL IT ONE MILLION HANDS, BECAUSE IT IS NOT.

Yes it is, that's why the machine has a "Select Hands" function where you select the number of hands that you want to play.

You were all raring to go on one million hands, jamming me up for a bet on it, until Singer put the bug in your ear about hundred plays. Then all of a sudden single line became to impractical to you.

I understand that Singer is in your head, but he had nothing to do with this. I came up with the 100-play idea myself...it's all in the archives.

AND YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO MANIPULATE BET SIZE OR DENOMINATION. WHATEVER YOUR FIRST BET IS WILL BE THE BET SIZE UNTIL YOU COMPLETE ONE MILLION HANDS.

The original challenge was to be ahead after one million hands. This denomination rules was an add-on well after I said I would need to play a 100-hand machine in order to complete a million hands in a reasonable amount of time, and only after Singer suggested I use his betting strategies.

And if changing denominations doesn't work anyway, then why are you sweating it?

[mickeycrimm]

Yes it is, that's why the machine has a "Select Hands" function where you select the number of hands that you want to play.



I understand that Singer is in your head, but he had nothing to do with this. I came up with the 100-play idea myself...it's all in the archives.

AND YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO MANIPULATE BET SIZE OR DENOMINATION. WHATEVER YOUR FIRST BET IS WILL BE THE BET SIZE UNTIL YOU COMPLETE ONE MILLION HANDS.

The original challenge was to be ahead after one million hands. This denomination rules was an add-on well after I said I would need to play a 100-hand machine in order to complete a million hands in a reasonable amount of time, and only after Singer suggested I use his betting strategies.

And if changing denominations doesn't work anyway, then why are you sweating it?

When you hit the deal button that is one hand. When you hit it again that it two hands. The number of draws you take on the hand has no bearing on the number of hands you played. It will take you much longer to complete one million hands on a hundred play than a single line game.

Singer is in your mouth.

Singer told you about the hundred plays. It's in the archives.

The bet will be constant. Whatever your first bet is will be the bet size for the one million hands. There will be no increasing or decreasing the bet. Repeat, no increasing or decreasing the bet. You must hit the deal button one million times. Hey, asshole, if you want to waste my time I will waste yours. You are going to have to sit down like an idiot and hit the deal button one million times.

[Biloxi Bill]

Yes it is, that's why the machine has a "Select Hands" function where you select the number of hands that you want to play.



I understand that Singer is in your head, but he had nothing to do with this. I came up with the 100-play idea myself...it's all in the archives.

AND YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO MANIPULATE BET SIZE OR DENOMINATION. WHATEVER YOUR FIRST BET IS WILL BE THE BET SIZE UNTIL YOU COMPLETE ONE MILLION HANDS.

The original challenge was to be ahead after one million hands. This denomination rules was an add-on well after I said I would need to play a 100-hand machine in order to complete a million hands in a reasonable amount of time, and only after Singer suggested I use his betting strategies.

And if changing denominations doesn't work anyway, then why are you sweating it?

When you hit the deal button that is one hand. When you hit it again that it two hands. The number of draws you take on the hand has no bearing on the number of hands you played. It will take you much longer to complete one million hands on a hundred play than a single line game.

Singer is in your mouth.

Singer told you about the hundred plays. It's in the archives.

The bet will be constant. Whatever your first bet is will be the bet size for the one million hands. There will be no increasing or decreasing the bet. Repeat, no increasing or decreasing the bet. You must hit the deal button one million times. Hey, asshole, if you want to waste my time I will waste yours. You are going to have to sit down like an idiot and hit the deal button one million times.

True stuff right there