Final thoughts (again)

[mickeycrimm]

Speaking of progressives, I saw a wonderful pick off play by a pro VP team at the Reno Atlantis on the most recently passed Saturday evening. A $1 (5 coin) DDB progressive was over $8K ($4k reset) for an NRF. There were 10 linked machines (7 in the high limit room and 3 outside on the opposite side of the wall of the high limit room). The pro team had at least 7 seats by my estimation and had gotten the NRF around 10PM that evening. Not bad for 5 hours work.

7 professional video poker guys pounding out 5 hours of video poker. How many hands at $5.00 dollars a hand could 7 pros knock out per hour? How much did they put in? What was actually profit after they finally hit? What did each player make after the chop? What was the tax liability?

This is what I mean. Without the actual facts, it sounds like a 2-bit win if any.

What's the cost? What's the cycle?

Black hole, when you're asking for actual facts, I don't see that as part of the ap method. In addition, you'll always get where the play was and not where it is, and don't you know, it's always a team of ap PROS who hit all these things. Never anyone else, unless a non ap reports on it.

I'm the one that asked what the cycle and cost were, dumass. No AP is going to throw down on the play you put up unless they know those two factors. You just keep on giving, idiot.

[Alan Mendelson]

So Rob put up mathematical proof that his system is bullshit. That's about as stupid as it gets.

I'm not sure it's what you would call BS. But yes, Rob did put up the proof that shows his "special plays" have a lower expected value than conventional plays. But Rob doesn't care about those pennies per hand. He's looking for scoring the big win from quads or a royal which is what makes his strategy different from conventional play.

Conventional play is in fact one hand at a time. Rob is looking for a big win and not to play hand after hand. I don't think that's BS nor do I think it's as stupid as some say it is.

If you want to play for pennies then you play conventional video poker strategy. Frankly it's what I do. But there is some value in going for the big win when conditions present themselves to try your luck at it.

And that is what the "fight" is all about.

[mickeycrimm]

The short version of my original interest in Rob goes something like this. Before there was an X-Files show, back when Uri Geller was going on national television to display his "psychic powers" and TV evangelists were claiming to know what was wrong with audience members, I was researching and debunking the paranormal. Much of Uri Geller's public clout came from his convincing a few media people and physicists he could do what he claimed. Rob, essentially, is claiming paranormal abilities. He says he has circumvented math with his Rube Goldberg "systems." Alan made videos of Rob, giving him credence in some eyes. So I found the relationship between Alan and Rob classic. The high-profile media person bought into a claim with no evidence that would hold up in a lab or in court or in a math class, and publicized it without hard critique. So I sat and watched here for a couple of years because it's a textbook, classic example of a paranormal claimant/media person relationship that was so textbook you couldn't make it up.

Eventually, Rob's claims got so out of hand (e.g."the world's greatest video poker player") that I was obligated to speak up. He had 5000 posts, no math, no stats, no clear explanation of his "systems," which were too complex to ever explain (of course).

How in God's name does it mean "I must not trust my feelings about him?" I've been familiar with Rob since 1990 or thereabouts. I have stated my thoughts regarding Rob clearly many times. He does people a service when he talks about the traps of AP play, and addiction, and not tipping (LOL -- my personal favorite). And he knows a good amount about Las Vegas 1985-2005. But his self-presentation gambling-wise is that of a quack.

Are you serious, redietz? Do you really want us to believe that Rob Singer is on a level of Uri Geller for paranormal claims or activity? Or are you just throwing in the name of Uri Geller in some fiendish attempt to further attack Singer?

Your facts concerning my videos with Rob are wrong, redietz. In fact, what you say about what Singer said about the videos he did with me about his "special plays" are also wrong.

First of all, there is "math" to back up his special plays. And hold on to your shorts redietz, because in EVERY VIDEO DISCUSSION on my website ROB ADMITS THAT HIS SPECIAL PLAYS ARE AT A MATHEMATICAL DISADVANTAGE TO CONVENTIONAL PLAYS. If you don't believe me look for yourself here: http://alanbestbuys.com/id194.html EACH AND EVERY SINGLE ONE of Singer's "special plays" has the math for the special play and the math for the conventional play. And in each and every single one of the special plays the math shows the Rob Singer Special Play has a disadvantage. Why did you leave this out of your allegation, redietz?

Did you leave this material fact out because you totally ignore the entire purpose of the special plays? Did you actually ever watch one of those videos where Rob states that a special play has one goal and one goal only: to hit a big winner?

Also, please read specifically what I said about WHY I did those videos with Rob. Also read my personal thoughts about Rob's system. You also conveniently left out of your allegation that I DO NOT PLAY USING ROB'S SYSTEM. In fact, I don't even understand Rob's system (other than his special plays) and I've said that over and over here. Are you going to call me a Uri Geller associate now because I made my website articles change using paranormal skills to change the text to make my previous support/endorsement of Rob disappear?

Thanks for posting this comment redietz. It's becoming very clear now.

I look forward to you posting your own articles, or bibliography of the articles, soon.

I find this fascinating. I just took a look at those videos and will be looking some more. I see the point alan makes. These are a breakdown of a few of singers different plays that reduce ev but increase the big win chance. redietz, you still say he never explains anything about strategy? If I were an ap I can see how things like this would drive me crazy. But so don't things the everyday recreational player says and does. aps never see beyond ap beliefs.

If you really want to increase your chances of hitting royals then start playing 2-card royals over high and low pairs. You'll hit more royals, numnuts, but do you really think you will come out ahead in the long run for doing it? That's the crux of the problem about Rob's system. Sure, he increases his chances of hitting the big hands, but he also increasees his loss rate on the hands that don't convert to big hands. Hitting the big hands at an increased rate will not compensate for the higher loss rate on the hands that don't convert to big hands.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you really want to increase your chances of hitting royals then start playing 2-card royals over high and low pairs. You'll hit more royals, numnuts, but do you really think you will come out ahead in the long run for doing it? That's the crux of the problem about Rob's system. Sure, he increases his chances of hitting the big hands, but he also increasees his loss rate on the hands that don't convert to big hands. Hitting the big hands at an increased rate will not compensate for the higher loss rate on the hands that don't convert to big hands.

Unfortunately, mickey, Rob doesn't hold two card royals instead of a pair. Why do you say stupid crap?

Rob is very specific that 95% or more of his play is conventional video poker.

[mickeycrimm]

Totals so far for 2017

Hotel rooms....16K
Fuel...... 6K
Restaurant meals 11K
Insurance and vehicle maintenance 2K

Then there are various and other sundry expenses.

Two-bit plays don't pay for all that, bitchstinkhole. Now climb back under your slimy rock.

Do you mind proving the figures in this post?

I don't have any problems with Mickey's cost of living figures. I'll compare them to mine, estimated for a full year:

Mickey says he spent so far $16K on hotel rooms, my apartment rent is about $24K per year.
Mickey says he spends about $6K on fuel, I spend about $40 in gas each week which is $2,000 per year.
Mickey spends about $11K in restaurants and meals, and my weekly grocery tab is about $60 and I probably spend $100 or more each week eating out which is about $8,000 a year.
My insurance is a lot more than Mickey's. My auto insurance alone is more than $2K and that's because I'm in sunny SoCal. I also have other insurance.

So Mickey's figures are very believable.

This is the highest expense year I've run and it's because I've spent so much time out of state on the road. I've put 50,000 miles on my car this year. Another expense I have is my apartment back home that I haven't even spent 30 days in this year.

[mickeycrimm]

So Rob put up mathematical proof that his system is bullshit. That's about as stupid as it gets.

I'm not sure it's what you would call BS. But yes, Rob did put up the proof that shows his "special plays" have a lower expected value than conventional plays. But Rob doesn't care about those pennies per hand. He's looking for scoring the big win from quads or a royal which is what makes his strategy different from conventional play.

Conventional play is in fact one hand at a time. Rob is looking for a big win and not to play hand after hand. I don't think that's BS nor do I think it's as stupid as some say it is.

If you want to play for pennies then you play conventional video poker strategy. Frankly it's what I do. But there is some value in going for the big win when conditions present themselves to try your luck at it.

And that is what the "fight" is all about.

If he plays at the denoms he says he does then it's much more than pennies per hour.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not arguing with you mickey, I don't play Rob's way. But when you are looking at the chance of hitting four aces instead of holding a full house with three aces, I can understand why Rob would sometimes try for the quads. (And he holds the full house when playing 8/5 bonus.)

[jbjb]

I'm not arguing with you mickey, I don't play Rob's way. But when you are looking at the chance of hitting four aces instead of holding a full house with three aces, I can understand why Rob would sometimes try for the quads. (And he holds the full house when playing 8/5 bonus.)

I was dealt AAA44 a couple days ago vulturing 10 play DDB. Had three 3x's, and two 2x's. Held the AAA as proper strategy dictates and whiffed on all ten hands! Didnt even get another full house.

[Alan Mendelson]

I was dealt AAA44 a couple days ago vulturing 10 play DDB. Had three 3x's, and two 2x's. Held the AAA as proper strategy dictates and whiffed on all ten hands! Didnt even get another full house.

Yep.... that's what happens. The RNG sometimes just does not cooperate with our expert plays.

[jbjb]

I was dealt AAA44 a couple days ago vulturing 10 play DDB. Had three 3x's, and two 2x's. Held the AAA as proper strategy dictates and whiffed on all ten hands! Didnt even get another full house.

Yep.... that's what happens. The RNG sometimes just does not cooperate with our expert plays.

Yeah... my expected number of quads?....ZERO!!!!

[jbjb]

And had I said screw it, played wrong and kept the full house, I'd have $50 more in my pocket.

Now think of the damage you're doing by breaking up the full house when YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO!!!

[MisterV]

Your Uri analogy sucks. Try something else.

OK, how about John Patrick's former guest, Miss Gwen, the gambler's astrologer?

see: http://roncen.websitetoolbox.com/pos...=gwen&trail=15

[tableplay]

Two of them on the right-most two seats were chatting to each other, and the person on the 2nd-right-most seat blocked an empty seat with his left arm when it was empty (bathroom break I guess). I saw the blocker also talking to people further to the left beyond the briefly vacated seat. Yes, it's possible one of the 3 others, on the other side of the high limit partition/wall, hit the 8K+ NRF and it is also possible the guy doing the blocking was a lone wolf who was just a really nice guy.

$100 free play each week is 20 hands at $5 per hand. Yawn.

What made you think this was a "team" and not just seven individual players? Were they wearing hats or hoodies with the team logo?

I remember when a "team" of two couples used to show up at Rincon. Unfortunately for them, at the time, there were at least five machines linked to the $5 DDB VP progressive and there were two jackpots where the "lone wolf" got the royal. One of those "lone wolfs" was me when I hit for $36K some years back. Another lone wolf was a lady from San Diego who hit for $50K+.

Bottom line: that team "vanished."

[pkspins]

Do you mind proving the figures in this post?

I don't have any problems with Mickey's cost of living figures. I'll compare them to mine, estimated for a full year:

Mickey says he spent so far $16K on hotel rooms, my apartment rent is about $24K per year.
Mickey says he spends about $6K on fuel, I spend about $40 in gas each week which is $2,000 per year.
Mickey spends about $11K in restaurants and meals, and my weekly grocery tab is about $60 and I probably spend $100 or more each week eating out which is about $8,000 a year.
My insurance is a lot more than Mickey's. My auto insurance alone is more than $2K and that's because I'm in sunny SoCal. I also have other insurance.

So Mickey's figures are very believable.

This is the highest expense year I've run and it's because I've spent so much time out of state on the road. I've put 50,000 miles on my car this year. Another expense I have is my apartment back home that I haven't even spent 30 days in this year.

What kind of hotels are you staying at? 294 days year to date means you're averaging $54 a night in hotel expense. If you aren't wedded to staying in casino hotels, with that kind of travel you can leverage hotel frequent stay benefits and mitigate some of those costs - or pick up some EV+ if I'm using your vernacular correctly - between the regular points and the promotions. If you want to explain more about this area I can maybe help you with some explanations.

[tableplay]

Great, I'll PM you with my P.O. Box and you can mail me a C-note each week.

$100 free play each week is 20 hands at $5 per hand. Yawn.

[Alan Mendelson]

And had I said screw it, played wrong and kept the full house, I'd have $50 more in my pocket.

Now think of the damage you're doing by breaking up the full house when YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO!!!

In DDB you break up the full house, we agree.

In 8/5 Bonus you hold the full house. Rob does that too.
In 7/5 Bonus Rob sometimes holds the full house and sometimes just the aces.
In 6/5 Bonus Rob holds the Aces and so does Dancer.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry tableplay but I'm not banging away at a $1 video poker progressive with $100 of free play and think that the free play is some kind of incentive to do it.

[kewlJ]

Totals so far for 2017

Hotel rooms....16K
Fuel...... 6K
Restaurant meals 11K
Insurance and vehicle maintenance 2K

Then there are various and other sundry expenses.

Mickey, I have been meaning to comment on this since I saw it but just didn't get around to it.

Do you not play rated? And if you don't, I assume for similar reasons as blackjack players, to not assist in identifying you?

I ask because playing rated, you certainly should be able to knock down some of those hotel room and restaurant meal expenses. These are your 2 top expenses. Just knocking these in half would be really worthwhile.

Most of my play....my personal blackjack play and our partnership machine play takes place locally, so I don't have much use for comped room, except for putting up an occasional out of town guest. But the meal comps...myself and my partner (business in this case), eating out comped at the casinos at least once a day, sometimes twice a day, really knocks down out household grocery bill. I don't know what the savings is but it is surely thousands (plural) per year.

The (inflated) value of the food comps is surely ten's of thousands a year, but that is not the actual value. The actual value is what it would cost to eat all those extra meals at home and that is probably 4-5 thousand, I would think.

[kewlJ]

I know only a couple people really care, but I will give a little update to my recovery. First 2 days home from rehab went well. 4 periods of walking and lite exercise each day and a lot of rest. Some discomfort in my chest, but not agonizing pain, and I am sure that was due to pain meds, which I have been taking 24/7. I want to get away from that.

Today didn't go well at all. I definitely over did things. After lunch, my brother and I took a short drive to a nearby neighborhood park that has a walking trail/path. I walked I guess a couple hundred yards, which is much further than my little walks at home. But boy did I run out of energy at the end. Felt weak and needed help getting to the car. Once we got home, I collapsed into my recliner where I slept for like 2 and a half hours. Upon awaking, a good deal more pain. It feels like a knife through my chest. I am sure the pain meds have worn off, but I don't want to take more until bed time. I really don't want to have a problem with these things (pain meds).

So not a great day, but I think we overdid it a bit contributing to that. But I still feel like I am heading in the right direction.

I guess I will share this bit of humor too. Last week, I think it was Friday the day after I got home from the hospital, I walked the front driveway to the curb and attempted to come back. It's only about 35-40 feet (small front yard, bigger back yard). So when I turned to walk back up the driveway, I couldn't. I was too weak. I was sort of shuffling my feet instead of walking and that wasn't working. My brother who was watching from the front porch had to come help me. And when I say back "up" the driveway, we are talking like a 2% incline, not exactly Mt Everest.

So Monday, returning home from rehab center, I was eager to conquer that driveway walk, both to and from the curb. So I head down the driveway and when I turn to come back, my brother is waiting at the top of the driveway. He holds out his arms and says "come on sonnyboy, you can make it. Walk to daddy" like he is encouraging a 9 month old to walk for the first time. I found the humor in it, but also hated him for a brief moment. Now a couple days later and having successfully made that driveway journey, probably 10 times, I tend to see more of the humor, when looking back.

[MisterV]

Your brother cares about you and is there for you.

That's what matters.