Very good Arc, I understand everything you say here:

Go look at the reference I provided above. Now, think about the area under the curve. That is the totality of all the players being considered. The ones on the right are the winners (notice there are very few), the ones on the left are the big losers (also very few). The ones in the middle are the ones who came close to the expected return of their play.

Now all you have to do is show me the research that backs this up.