Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[AxelWolf]

The only thing I don't understand is where you find these advantage plays with a 10% edge?

Do card counters have this edge?
Do video poker players have this edge?
Do table game players who see exposed hole cards have this edge?

Where does this 10% edge come from and how do you know it's worth 10 percent?

At the casino.

I don't know what the count and situation would have to be for a card counter to get a 10% edge on a hand(I'm sure its possible). I think RS and some others can tell you. We all know card counters don't avrage anything close to 10%.

I don't think one can really get a 10% edge on average hole-carding.

It can come from the machine or from marketing and promotions. You know its 10% by calculating it. I'm not claiming you can walk into a casino and play with a 10% advantage 24/7 365. Obviously, I'm not going to tell you where and how.

[MisterV]

Obviously, I'm not going to tell you where and how.

No, you'll treat him like you would treat a mushroom: keep him in the dark and feed him a load of bullshit.

[RS__]

No, regular blackjack card counters don't have a 10% edge. I don't know about side bets and all that stuff, but I wouldn't be surprised if you could get a 10%+ advantage on side bets.

Sometimes VP edges are 10%+, sometimes they aren't. You typically get such an edge from promotions and marketing, like Axel said.

I don't know what the average edge is for hole-carders, but there are definitely opportunities worth 10%+. You wouldn't even believe what's possible, so I'll just leave it at that.


I usually either use math or run a sim to verify an advantage. Most of the time, it's pretty basic math.

[AxelWolf]

Obviously, I'm not going to tell you where and how.

No, you'll treat him like you would treat a mushroom: keep him in the dark and feed him a load of bullshit.

I could come up with plenty of examples past, present and perhaps even future plays that are worth 10+. I generally don't like to talk about that stuff publicly. Even privatly, that stuff is usually kept amoung friends, partners or people you trade information with.

Alan would be one the least deserving people to share information with or try to prove something to(Very sad since he is supposed to be a good unbiased reporter.) What would it matter anyway? Either he wouldn't understand it or he would try to find a way to debunk it by twisting anything you say with technicalities.

When we were having the loss rebate debate, I had mentioned there have been 150% rebates. He wanted proof, as if I was being dishonest. He basically claimed a 150% loss rebate would practically be the biggest event in casino marketing history and advertised as so.

Just the other day I accidently found an old forum and thread where people were discussing one for 150%, including the location, some of the rules and best methods to play it. What good would it have done to prove it to him? If one wanted to prove their AP claims to someone, I think Alan would be the last person you would want to approach(see packagegate, read how he likes to play technicality games, then see how he adds and changes information as he goes)

[mickeycrimm]

Some vulturable line game plays offer better than 10% edges. When vulturing games I am limited as to the amount of action I can run. I find a game in advantage mode then play it until it is no longer in advantage mode. There are several different games involved with various edges depending on where I come into each game at. And their are several different bet levels. So I just combine the results.

I use the players card to track my action when I'm holed up in a casino. I record my wins and losses on each play in a pocket notebook. I take a look at my results every day. The player's card tells me how much of a wager I made. My notebook tells me how much money I made. I've averaged as high as a 30% earn on the total wager in some casinos. My last stop where I spent several days I made 21% on the total wager.

Here's an example of how it's calculated. If I make $1200 on a total wager of $5000 then then my return is 124%. So I made a 24% profit on $5000 in action..

[OneHitWonder]

The only thing I don't understand is where you find these advantage plays with a 10% edge?

I don't understand the need to tell us you can't tell us. What do you get out of saying how big a man you are for the sole purpose of leaving it at that? All I see is a bunch of juvenile spelling and thinking errors. And pictures of casinos, which all the look the same. Do you guys eat spaghetti with mushroom sauce, or Kraft dinners? Nobody else to talk to?

[mickeycrimm]

No, you'll treat him like you would treat a mushroom: keep him in the dark and feed him a load of bullshit.

V, there are lots of reasons not to expose plays, especially online. Many years ago at one of his seminars Dancer advised casino execs to monitor the gambling forums for information posted about their particular casinos. I've seen plays disappear within one day of being posted up online. The guy that killed more plays than anybody was Anthony Curtis. AP's figured out quickly not to tell that asshole anything because he would post it right up in the Las Vegas Adviser.

Another reason not to teach newbies anything is you put them into competition against you for the plays. The money to be made is not infinite. Go ahead and teach your buddy the play and you are going to walk into a casino and there's a big fat play there but you can't get the seat because your buddy is sitting there spinning it off. IT COSTS YOU MONEY TO TEACH OTHERS!!!!

Alan thinks all us AP's stick together and tell each other about plays. There's a lot of stuff I do that I won't tell Axel or RS. And there is a lot of stuff they do that they won't tell me about. On most plays there is only so much money to be made. When I find a play I want to be the one that makes the money on it so I don't tell anybody. This is not a hard written rule as there can be reasons to tell others about a play.

[OneHitWonder]

No, you'll treat him like you would treat a mushroom: keep him in the dark and feed him a load of bullshit.

V, there are lots of reasons not to expose plays, especially online.

But none to just talk about it. Especially not to talk about it in depth. What use are all of your on-line calculations?

[Alan Mendelson]

Well as a matter of fact I know there are "plays" with huge percentage returns. But the percentage return while huge might actually be small in terms of actual dollars.

This is what you "percentage quoters" fail to mention.

Yesterday I had a percentage return of about 163%. That should put me in the exclusive AP club, I'd think. But in actual dollars it was peanuts.

Here's my play: a casino gave me $110 of free play. I ran it thru once and cashed out $175. That's a return of about 163% on the original $110 of free play and an infinite return of the zero dollars out of my pocket.

But the reality?

The reality is it was only $175.

[kewlJ]

Well as a matter of fact I know there are "plays" with huge percentage returns. But the percentage return while huge might actually be small in terms of actual dollars.

This is what you "percentage quoters" fail to mention.

Yesterday I had a percentage return of about 163%. That should put me in the exclusive AP club, I'd think. But in actual dollars it was peanuts.

Here's my play: a casino gave me $110 of free play. I ran it thru once and cashed out $175. That's a return of about 163% on the original $110 of free play and an infinite return of the zero dollars out of my pocket.

But the reality?

The reality is it was only $175.

Alan, you continue to demonstrate a complete lack of understanding between things like Ev, and actual win. A complete lack of understand of what playing with an advantage really is.

[kewlJ]

Either he wouldn't understand it or he would try to find a way to debunk it by twisting anything you say with technicalities.

You mean like running out to a casino to take blurry pictures from the wrong seat and angle? Or specifically finding a full table and taking a picture? Or any of the other intentionally dishonest and manipulative things he does. Why would you hold THAT against him?

[Alan Mendelson]

Well as a matter of fact I know there are "plays" with huge percentage returns. But the percentage return while huge might actually be small in terms of actual dollars.

This is what you "percentage quoters" fail to mention.

Yesterday I had a percentage return of about 163%. That should put me in the exclusive AP club, I'd think. But in actual dollars it was peanuts.

Here's my play: a casino gave me $110 of free play. I ran it thru once and cashed out $175. That's a return of about 163% on the original $110 of free play and an infinite return of the zero dollars out of my pocket.

But the reality?

The reality is it was only $175.

Alan, you continue to demonstrate a complete lack of understanding between things like Ev, and actual win. A complete lack of understand of what playing with an advantage really is.

No kewlj what I wrote is exactly what happens with a real advantage play in video poker. You don't get to use that free play over and over again. It's a one time shot and either you get lucky or you don't.

I'm sick of you experts telling me I'm wrong or telling me I don't understand without you explaining how I'm wrong or what I don't understand.

And regarding your ridiculous claims about counting cards at two tables -- I'm waiting for just one other forum member to tell me he was in the middle seat of one table and could see the cards at the next. The closest we got so far was claims you could differentiate between faces and numbers but there are so many other variables including dealing and your own play and player positions on the next table.

Until YOU can prove it I won't believe it. Mouth off at me all you want and I still won't believe it until I see it.

You are the Rob Singer of blackjack. Your proof is in the locker of your mind.

[OneHitWonder]

Either he wouldn't understand it or he would try to find a way to debunk it by twisting anything you say with technicalities.

You mean like running out to a casino to take blurry pictures from the wrong seat and angle?

The picture you need to think about is of Alan eagerly sitting there to count cards. Put any regular person in that spot. How about V or Red? Or the high school teacher, or therapist down the street. I think you would be embarrassed to lead those people around in a casino to get them to want do what you do. How long would any business person, Trump included, go for that? Get real.

[kewlJ]

Do card counters have this edge?

In the "golden era" of card counting, about the time I was born in the 80's, good card counters were thought to generally play to about a 2% advantage. As games and conditions deteriorated, with higher house edges, and more decks, meaning fewer positive counts/situations to overcome increased number of negative/neutral counts situations, the overall all edge dropped to under 1% for most players, even down towards .5%.

That is sort of where basic card counting is today. Any kind of standard 'play-all' approach generates something below 1%, closer to .5% for most players and most games. Even larger spreads don't get you back to 1% for a solo counter. Mega large spreads can get you over 1%, but a solo player can't employ that for very long. That is the basis for the team "call-in" approach, but that too won't last long now-a-days.

To get back to a 1% advantage, techniques like various forms of wonging (in and out), escaping at least some of the negative/neutral counts and playing more positive counts were implemented. Tracking multiple tables and jumping from a negative/neutral count to a better positive count or opportunity is sort off an extension of wonging principals. These things can get you back to the neighborhood of 1%. THAT is solo card counting today.

So a card counter doing everything just right (optimal), AND properly financed for long-term play (which most aren't) AND having the mental make-up to withstand the variance involved and the losing periods that will come, is playing to less than a 1% advantage. So why does the industry waste all that time and energy on card counter, counter-measures. Never made sense. They SHOULD be spending that time and those resources on those AP's like Axel that are finding and playing large advantages. ....and leave us 'little guys' alone.

[AxelWolf]

Well as a matter of fact I know there are "plays" with huge percentage returns. But the percentage return while huge might actually be small in terms of actual dollars.

This is what you "percentage quoters" fail to mention.

Yesterday I had a percentage return of about 163%. That should put me in the exclusive AP club, I'd think. But in actual dollars it was peanuts.

Here's my play: a casino gave me $110 of free play. I ran it thru once and cashed out $175. That's a return of about 163% on the original $110 of free play and an infinite return of the zero dollars out of my pocket.

But the reality?

The reality is it was only $175.

You failed to mention how much action you gave them to get that free play in the first place. Advantage players calulate that all in.

Advantage players calculate that in when they make a play. The fact that you ran well is meaningless. You might run bad the next time.
I was talking about plays that last for longer periods of time.
I was not talking about quick play bonus machines like Micky was talking about, not that it matters, if he and others can run around and do that all day long making an average of x per day on their own terms doing something they enjoy, that's wonderful. It certainly beats spending a significant amount of time in the casinos and never having a winning year.

considering how much you gamble, It just amazes me, you had years of access to information and smart people on the forums. Yet you chose to befriend and back the worst person(Rob Singer) you possibly could when it comes to gambling.

Good job on alienating people that actually know what they are doing, all in the name of trying to prove something. It's as if you are cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[kewlJ]

No kewlj what I wrote is exactly what happens with a real advantage play in video poker. You don't get to use that free play over and over again. It's a one time shot and either you get lucky or you don't.

Whether you get "lucky" is variance and has nothing to do with whether you were playing with an advantage or not. This is the part, you just can't seem to grasp. Playing with an advantage short-term, sometime you win, some times you lose. THAT is variance. Playing with an advantage long-term, you will win. That is a mathematical certainty.

You are the Rob Singer of blackjack. Your proof is in the locker of your mind.

I know you are getting frustrated so you are trying hard to insult me, Alan. But this is ridiculous. I play with an advantage. It is a very small advantage, but I play a great many trials (rounds) per year. That allows me to overcome short-term variance and "grind" out a long-term (small) advantage. This is a mathematically sound, proven principal.

Singer, played at a disadvantage, negative Ev games and conditions and claimed he made a million dollars doing so. Now can a player make money in the short-term playing at a disadvantage? Of course. All big jackpot winners do. But THAT is not what Singer was claiming. He was claiming that he grinded out wins, over many, many trials, playing negative expectation games. That sir, is mathematically impossible.

I often say that you are anti-AP. I guess what you really are is anti-Math. You simply refuse to accept that math and until you do that puts in a ridiculous position of arguing the earth is flat....just out of touch with the truth, out of touch with reality.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well Axel you don't mention how much play you put in to get those offers either. I'm yet to see anyone here mention how much play they put in.

We just had a forum member post about getting two monthly offers just a couple of days apart which from my understanding violates the rules of Total Rewards promotions. But maybe he had the play to get around that rule? I know I don't have that kind of play.

He also has offer dates I don't have. I guess when you're a big player you get special rules.

Frankly no one gets offers of any significant amount without previous play history. We all know that.

But what some people fail to admit is that without continued play those offers will disappear. And whatever advantage you have will disappear with it.

The bottom line here is you can quote your percentages and your EVs all you want but how much is it in dollars and cents that you take to the bank?

When I studied economics (33 hours at the Maxwell School at Syracuse University) we had a name for quoting percentages without mentioning the actual dollar amounts. We called it "Chinese Dollars" because it was gibberish that had no bottom line.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I'm wondering what all of you multimillionaire APs are quoting?

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I'm not anti AP. I'm anti bullshit. What sticks in my mind is you posting you have a net loss for the last six months, and when I've looked at blackjack tables I can't imagine you having the super powers to see through people and see cards in the air at two tables simultaneously.

Sorry buddy, it just doesn't fly.

Can you count cards at one table? Sure you can. I know card counters.

Can you play with an edge? Sure you can and you admit it's a small edge and I accept that.

I hope you stay lucky.

[kewlJ]

And regarding your ridiculous claims about counting cards at two tables -- I'm waiting for just one other forum member to tell me he was in the middle seat of one table and could see the cards at the next.

Actually a couple members have confirmed that that they have used this technique. You just dismiss them as you always do when your mind is made up about something. And being smarter than I am, they realize there is no benefit to continuing to argue with you. I, on the other hand, am often my own worse enemy in this arena.

On forums that I participate regularly at, one of my purposes is to share some things and experiences that may benefit other players, just as others did for me, when I was starting out. Just the mention of tracking multiple tables, does that. I really didn't need to go into any detail and shouldn't have. I don't think there are many aspiring BJ player types on this site, but any that are would have immediately recognized the benefit and possibilities of tracking a second (or multiple) tables, just from my casual mention of it.....and I would have accomplished what I intended to.

So me arguing with you, was, and continues to be not only asinine on my part, completely no benefit and on the contrary could have adverse effects to me. So yeah...let's go with your conclusion: Tracking multiple tables is impossible and no one can do it. THAT really is the best narrative for me.

[kewlJ]

What sticks in my mind is you posting you have a net loss for the last six month.

I have no idea what you are talking about? I have no net loss for the past 6 months.

My year blackjack wise is pretty close to, but just below expectation (accumulated Ev). If you want real numbers instead of Chinese numbers, my own personal BJ win is 54K vs Ev of 64k. Luckily my blackjack partner is mildly above Ev for the year, so I will benefit from that. And yes my numbers both accumulated Ev (amount of play) and win, will be a bit suppressed from my average years because of the 6 week that I lost completely (medical situation), no play, and a few weeks of lighter than usual play as I get back into things. I usually average about 80K blackjack Ev and obviously will not get there this year.

Luckily for me in what is likely to be a slightly below expectation year blackjack-wise, my non blackjack, supplemental machine play income will be above expectation, somewhere in the upper 40k range, when it is normally about 20k. That is due to one large, very lucky machine play hit that one of my machine play partners had in the spring. That will provide a welcome bump for the three of us this year.

Perhaps your confusion is that I have stated that during my now 14 year blackjack career, I have experienced 4 different 6 month losing periods. That is very possible (obviously) and common. Again, that is the variance that is blackjack card counting.