Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[mickeycrimm]

Sure, why not? Without any angle(s), there is a 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 chance of turning $2,000 in $2,500.

Over a few bets, the HE is negligible. I wouldn't take Shacky's (shaky) advice for two-step progression betting - it's on his Odds site somewhere - and bet one-third of it, and the other two-thirds if lose that in an attempt to make more money than required. I'd bet $500, and then a $1000 if lose that, or try to rebuild by doubling the remaining $500 if lose the first two bets. The 3/4 chance of not losing both bets, plus the chance to recoup and try again.

At regular baccarat, though, I would have to factor in the commission on any banker bets won. And for fun wait till the last hands of shoes to pick a good one: lots of 2's and 3's for the player, and 7's and 8's for the banker. Maybe even the tie-bet if lots of face cards left. Or for one of those flashed or misplayed cards on a previous hand. Could happen. For sure, the blackjack AP-thing would be too risky over the course of just a single day. Or find a lesser HE on a different casino game where available. I would be leery about going to casino X on day Y. The casino and day would have to be picked somewhat at random. Somewhat typical playing conditions.

In any event, I have to figure that if you average only around $500 a normal day, as you used to say, then your chance of making $500 on any given day can't be too much better than 0.8 .

Onehitblunder, the bet between Argentino and me was to be in Montana on machines that have an overall payback of around 90% with a max bet of $2. Would you bet $10,000 that you could turn $2000 into $2500 between 8 AM and midnight under those conditions?

That's fine, Mickey. Carry on. Nobody is going to prove out your stuff, or make a man of you. You'll have to do that for yourself.


P.S. What does it say about how confident you are in what you do every day for 18 hours a day when you have to make it so easy to win $500? What a joke. People don't put the real information on line to keep it away from the AP's.

I put down the 18 hours stipulation for effect. I put this challenge down on Argentino when the conditions in Montana drove my daily win average up to $560 a day. That average took a dip to about $300 a day when certain games were removed but new games just out are driving my daily average back up again.

What was my chance of being successful with a bet like that against Argentino? It was 100% that I would do it. What you and Argentino don't know is I could easily set you up in such a bet and do it in less than an hour. It would more than likely have taken about 8 hours if I didn't want to set the idiot up.

And from what I can see your answer to the problem is to run a martingale. Voodoo gambling at it's best.