Bubble Craps

[coach belly]

The house edge on competing bets is at least 1% coach. Maybe a fraction smaller.

And that entire edge comes from a comeout roll of 12 ?

Is there any other outcome where one bet loses and the other does not win?

In craps there is no mathematical way to beat the house.

What about under these conditions...?

on big point multiplier days (and/or with a high enough players' card level) the vig can be overcome.

Even blackjack beats craps.

But there's no "dark side" to bet in Blackjack, so you can't hedge to guarantee a small house edge that can be overcome with bounce-back, etc.

Is that correct?

[FABismonte]

The machine will not allow the player to place a pass and don't pass bet at the same time (on factory default settings at least). The player must choose one or the other.

I guess this means you cannot wash free play on bubble craps by betting the passline and the don't at the same time?

FAB

[Alan Mendelson]

Coach there are something like 64 standard bets on a craps table plus exotic bets at certain casinos. Each bet carries an edge whether you are for or against the outcome. It could take an hour to go thru all of them.

[coach belly]

Coach there are something like 64 standard bets on a craps table plus exotic bets at certain casinos. Each bet carries an edge whether you are for or against the outcome. It could take an hour to go thru all of them.

I was referring to line bets only, where one player bets pass, and his partner bets don't pass.

Is the only outcome that results in a loss for the team a comeout roll of 12 ?

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes. The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet. But when he loses the bet on the 12 the house wins it's edge.

[tableplay]

The machine will not allow the player to place a pass and don't pass bet at the same time (on factory default settings at least). The player must choose one or the other.

I guess this means you cannot wash free play on bubble craps by betting the passline and the don't at the same time?

FAB

That's correct Fab, you need to bring a friend and have that person bet the pass line on his or her station and you bet the don't pass line with your freeplay on your craps station (or bet two separate stations yourself if the casino allows it). If a twelve is rolled on the come out roll (or snake eyes instead in some jurisdictions) the pass line bet is lost, as Alan stated, and the Don't Pass bet is a push.
For large bets, some players like to put another hedge bet on the hard 12 horn bet which is 1/30th the size of the come bet to insure against midnight (6-6) getting rolled and losing the pass line bet.

If you don't have a friend available and the casino only allows one station per person (and the craps machine is on standard settings), you can wash your free play minus a 5% vig on the winning bet by betting your X dollars of free play on the Lay Bet on the number 4 and a bet of X/2 dollars of live money with a buy bet on the number 4 (same goes for the number 10).
You will also need to place a minimum bet (usually a buck) on the pass line or don't pass line if no one else is at the station besides you or the machine will not roll the dice.

[tableplay]

Yes. The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet. But when he loses the bet on the 12 the house wins it's edge.

No Alan, this is incorrect (the part about which bet is protected is incorrect, but your answer of "Yes" to Coach Belly's question is correct). The Come Player's bet is protected with the horn bet on 12 (on the initial come out roll) not the Don't Player, who doesn't care if a 12 is rolled because it is just a push for his or her bet.

[tableplay]

And that entire edge comes from a comeout roll of 12 ?

Is there any other outcome where one bet loses and the other does not win?



What about under these conditions...?

on big point multiplier days (and/or with a high enough players' card level) the vig can be overcome.

Even blackjack beats craps.

But there's no "dark side" to bet in Blackjack, so you can't hedge to guarantee a small house edge that can be overcome with bounce-back, etc.

Is that correct?

the chance of rolling a 12 is 1/36 so you need player's club status or point multipliers which exceed 2.77 (1/36) percent if you choose bubble craps don't pass/pass hedging as your churning method - so the bubble craps slot machine is a better slot machine to use than many other slot machines like Cleopatra or whatever.

Correct there is no dark side BJ bet you can use. It is a non-hedge-able game.

Yes, as Alan stated, the edge in craps comes from the Bar (12) for don't pass bets otherwise craps would be an even game.

[mickeycrimm]

If you have one player on pass and one player on don't pass the house still has an edge on both bets. In the case of the comeout roll with a 12 the pass loses but the don't pass is a push.

The math is pretty easy on this one. You lose .5 of a bet every 36 rolls.

.5/36 = 1.39% house advantage

[coach belly]

you need player's club status or point multipliers which exceed 2.77 (1/36) percent if you choose bubble craps don't pass/pass hedging as your churning method - so the bubble craps slot machine is a better slot machine to use than many other slot machines like Cleopatra or whatever.

Is it better than the highest-return VP, since the push is almost guaranteed with the e-craps, so there's no "running bad" ?

On the other hand, it seems there is no possibility of winning any credits on the e-craps, how does that figure into the analysis?

Are the points earned from e-craps a fraction of what's earned from the same coin-in for the line slots and VP?

I suspect that you may not be able to run as much coin through the e-craps per hour as other slots,
since there could be some time between decisions on the line bets if the point or 7 don't hit quickly.

Is that correct?

[mickeycrimm]

If you have one player on pass and one player on don't pass the house still has an edge on both bets. In the case of the comeout roll with a 12 the pass loses but the don't pass is a push.

The math is pretty easy on this one. You lose .5 of a bet every 36 rolls.

.5/36 = 1.39% house advantage

For those that don't understand this imagine betting $1 on pass and $1 on don't pass. That's $2 in action. The frequency of the 12 is 1 in 36. Per 36 rolls you will make $72 in action. When a 12 comes you lose half your $2 bet, or $1.

The $1 you lose per $72 in action divided by the $72 is 1.39%. So that's the house edge on hedge bets.

[tableplay]

you need player's club status or point multipliers which exceed 2.77 (1/36) percent if you choose bubble craps don't pass/pass hedging as your churning method - so the bubble craps slot machine is a better slot machine to use than many other slot machines like Cleopatra or whatever.

Is it better than the highest-return VP, since the push is almost guaranteed with the e-craps, so there's no "running bad" ?

On the other hand, it seems there is no possibility of winning any credits on the e-craps, how does that figure into the analysis?

Are the points earned from e-craps a fraction of what's earned from the same coin-in for the line slots and VP?

I suspect that you may not be able to run as much coin through the e-craps per hour as other slots,
since there could be some time between decisions on the line bets if the point or 7 don't hit quickly.

Is that correct?

Yes, in that sense it is better as you wrote because you know what the floor is. You are taking much of the variance out of it. Moreover, as Mickey proved, bubble craps is considered by casinos (and the Nevada Gaming Control Board) to be a slot machine, which can have better comps than VP (but not always) especially if the VP is 99% plus. Bubble craps is just a tool in the arsenal for certain situations. Maybe you are trying to get to a higher card level and have a very specific bankroll limitation. Maybe you are risk averse and just want to know pretty much exactly what the worst case scenario is. Maybe you want to give the casino the illusion that you are a very high roller (recall that the casino only sees the don't side at the kiosk you are using, the pass side has no card or your friend's card at the station he or she is using so the hedge is not detected), so you bet the table max on the don't and on the pass (possibly hedging the come bet on the come out roll by betting 1/30 on midnight) for bigger mailers or card kiosk-swipe free play offers, etc. In other situations VP is much better since it is faster as you wrote (yes you are correct, craps bets don't resolve immediately like VP bets do, you have to wait until the point or a seven is rolled,if the point is established - this can be somewhat mitigated by placing table max bets on the don't and pass sides at the two stations being used). If you have a "big" bank roll (3x-5x the payout of the 5-coin royal flush for the denomination you are playing if you are playing 5 coins and that is where the jackpot starts at), know the strategy of the VP game you are playing well and are risk tolerant in demeanor, VP can be better. It is all situational. You might have plays that day at multiple casinos and don't have time to wait for a royal at one casino - that casino has bubble craps so you use it to hit the playthrough/wagering requirements goal in X amount of hours, etc. and then move on to one of your other plays. Yes, you won't win any credits at the bubble craps from the machine, they will come in the form of mailers and kiosk swipe prizes. The different game types are tools in a tool box, to be used when needed for specific casino and rewards club conditions.

[Dan Druff]

CAUTION - OFF TOPIC

Don't take a thing seriously that Travis McGee is writing. Look at the link he provided (trinity method) and you'll see it's a complete scam.

RS, Although you are entitled to your opinion, I do not understand how you can form an opinion and make it public without ever having read my book, seen my videos or spoken to me about my craps betting ideas. What basis do you or any one else have to express negative and disparaging remarks about me, my products and my company? My assumption is that you have no basis whatsoever since my office has informed me you are not a purchaser of any of our products.

Please consider this a Cease and Desist notice. If I hear you are making any further negative references to me, my company or products I will file a lawsuit against you for defamation.

Travis,

I am the owner of this forum.

Your post linking to your system was already coming close to violating this site's spam rules, but I allowed it because it was at least relevant to the topic being discussed. Also, you seemed to be posting other relevant material and didn't appear to be here just to spam.

However, you cannot also threaten to sue members here because they express skepticism about a system you voluntarily posted about and linked.

You are welcome to dispute their claims and defend yourself, but I can't allow lawsuit threats against those who question your spammy posts.

Please refrain from doing this in the future, or I will have to ban your account.

[Dan Druff]

. I do have RS's legal address so if you will kindly provide me yours in a PM so we can handle this matter offsite.

Would you be willing to prove this claim to him privately?

If you do have his address, I have to assume you estimated when he may have looked at your website and used his IP to determine his address?

I would NOT want to go to your website knowing you might use it to obtain someone's address, no matter what the reason may be.

I would suggest everyone stay away from your website if that's the case.

There is virtually no way to obtain someone's "legal address" through an IP address -- which is basically all Travis could obtain (along with some useless browser info) if you visited his site.

IP addresses can yield general locations, but not specific addresses.

Now, perhaps if the IP address was logged on another site which linked it to an address RS_ voluntarily entered (for example, amazon.com), it would be theoretically possible to match an IP to a physical address, but I doubt Travis has access to any proprietary database like that.

Again, I'm going to have to ask Travis to cease these types of activities. I do not want anonymous users here threatened with discovery of their personal information simply because they question the validity of someone's website's advice.

Legal and personal information threats against members on this site will not be tolerated.

[Dan Druff]

Question:

Rather than having to bring a friend along (and have 1/2 of the action on his player's card), couldn't you just play two terminals, BOTH with your card inserted?

I don't believe I've ever seen a machine which recognized two terminals with the same card as the same player. You might be able to just do that, and do the Pass on one, and the Don't Pass on the other.

[Dan Druff]

I have a friend who worked this game here, the Aruze Dealer's Angels Blackjack. You can see that the dealer is animated. According to my friend it was a 4-deck game and you could see the shuffle point. The animated dealer would actually shuffle the cards. The shuffle point was reached at the 80th card dealt. That would be 38% penetration. All five stations played from the same deck. So he would sit down on the console playing one machine betting $1. Once the dealer shuffled the cards he would start the count and continuing to bet just $1. Different consoles had different max bets. But for instance, with good counts he would go from betting 1 machine at $1 to betting all 5 machines at $20. I think that is a 1 to 100 betting spread. He said that some consoles had a $100 max bet.

According to my friend he wasn't the only one exploiting these consoles and to stop the AP's from beating them Aruze wound up having to reconfigure the game where the shuffle point couldn't be seen.

Kewlj, you are the blackjack expert here. Do you think this game was exploitable under the conditions I described? I think RS might be a blackjack player too. So what is you guys opinion here?

I'm a former blackjack player.

38% penetration is pretty bad, even on a 4-decker.

The problem is that, even at the end of the deal, you're going to be dividing the running count by about 3. This means you're not all that likely to ever get a really good true count in your favor, especially after just 80 cards (about equivalent to what's dealt in good double-deck games, but with a much higher count divider).

Now, of course you can make this up by this massive spread from $1 to 5x$20, but you're also introducing a ton of variance.

Would the machine be +EV under these circumstances?

Probably, but the variance is going to be very high.

You're better off just waiting until at least one other person (who you don't know) is playing, and then "Wong" the deck, only entering when the bet is +EV.

You said the game was changed to where the shuffle couldn't be seen. What does that mean? Does the player never have any idea when the cards are shuffled? Or does the shuffle just suddenly occur without warning?

Because if it's occurring without warning, but the player sees it happen AND has seen a range he's figured out where it typically occurs, the game can still be beaten.

[Dan Druff]

Now, regarding using Bubble Craps to run up status points at a fixed or mostly-fixed cost, is this a viable substitute for the relatively high variance VP?

I'm guessing no.

This is because Bubble Craps is far slower than VP, so it's probably much slower to accumulate tier credits.

Take a $2/credit VP game, played at max credits. That's $10 per hand. The average experienced VP player can play 500 hands per hour. At $10 coin-in per tier credit at a Caesars property, you're earning 500 tiers per hour in that game, and you can reach the 2500 tier mark after 5 hours of play, which then gets you 5000 bonus tiers. This would allow you to make Diamond after 2 days of play, of 5 hours each.

Now take Bubble Craps. If it's rating like a VP machine, it will also be $10 per tier credit. But I imagine you probably can't get off more than 100 hands per hour. (I'm just guessing here, never having played it.) So that would require $50 bets if you can manage 100 per hour, to accomplish the same thing. And if you can't even get 100 hands per hour, you need to bet higher than that. What are the limits of Bubble Craps?

[RS__]

The main problem, IMO, with bubble craps is it generally gives you almost no points. I think at CET properties it's like $50/TC or maybe $100/TC. I haven't looked at one in a CET property in LV in quite a while, but I remember it being really high.

At other casinos, the craps machines usually have a similarly high amount of coin in per point, compared to their other machines. That's if you're lucky. Most of the time, they just don't give you any points. Also, much of the time, free-play doesn't work on craps machines, although it works at some places.

To be able to find a good play on a craps machine isn't going to be anywhere near as frequent as finding a good play on slots or VP. You pretty much need "a perfect storm" scenario, where a bunch of pieces line up perfectly and if one of them doesn't fit in just right, it's no good. While every game in a casino can be beaten under the proper circumstances, the right circumstances for a craps machine to be beatable is a rare occurrence, a least in my experience. Although I will admit, one benefit of finding a play on a craps machine is it's super duper easy. You don't really have to think, you just keep making the same bets over and over again, or whatever it is you have an advantage on...unlike VP where you have to think of a proper hold and actively moving, or slots where you're jamming the re-spin button...you just place some bets and relax, and if you're lucky, you don't even have to hit the button to "roll" the dice.


I haven't played very many craps machines, but from what I remember the few that I have played or at least checked to see the max, it seems the max bet on the pass line is generally between $100 and $200. Odds vary from a flat 2x on everything (even lay, so with a $50 DP, you can only lay $100, no matter the point) to 3/4/5x. I think odds also have a limit, similar to the PL. So if the max on PL is $100, the max on the odds might be $100 as well, even though it offers 2x odds. The minimum bet is usually $2 and max total bet varies wildly (ie: total in action, not just on a single bet); I think the craps machine at Aria, when I last saw it, had something like $5,000 max bet, even though you could only bet a few hundred on the PL.

[FABismonte]

For the record, at Flamingo at LV the Bubble craps machine takes the Reel Rewards free play vouchers despite the sign-next to the bill insert slot- that says such vouchers are not accepted.

FAB

[tableplay]

Question:

Rather than having to bring a friend along (and have 1/2 of the action on his player's card), couldn't you just play two terminals, BOTH with your card inserted?

I don't believe I've ever seen a machine which recognized two terminals with the same card as the same player. You might be able to just do that, and do the Pass on one, and the Don't Pass on the other.

Dan, most casinos have systems which would detect the presence of duplicate player's card IDs and so an error would be generated on one of the duplicate cards and it wouldn't accumulate points. I suppose with enough scouting you might be able to find a casino where you could use your card in two machines. But even then, many casinos have a "one station per player" rule (manifested by a little sticker on the machine which says just that), so you are taking your chances of getting 86'ed by playing more than one station at casinos with this rule.