2018 start

[kewlJ]

KJ has made well over a million dollars in 14 years of playing blackjack. He started with a 4K bankroll and slowly built from there. He doesn't work everyday but 14 years is about 5000 days. He's had hundreds of losing days, even days where he has lost 8K or more. But he has still out run the game by well over a million dollars. He's damn good at what he does. He ramps up his bets in the big +EV situations. Short term negative variance causes a big losing day sometimes. But short term positive variance creates big winning days too. In the long run it all smothes out.

Thank you for the kind words of support Sir MickeyCrimm (I have knighted thee).

The only thing not quite true is "the made well over a million dollars from blackjack". My AP total is now just over a million dollars, but only 80% of that is blackjack. It's a technicality I guess, but kind of important to me, because blackjack is my passion. I look forward to the day hopefully in two years or so, where I can say "I made a million dollars from blackjack". And it's not because a million dollars is some great amount of wealth....it's not anymore, BUT it is a milestone, and it was my goal when I started, so I will be proud to say that when that day comes. But I haven't earned that right yet.

[jbjb]

Whatever you say GrimReaper.

[kewlJ]

I have no idea why anyone would give that type of information out online, but what do I know?

Both mortgages are closed.

[kewlJ]

Everything you do and post should come with twilight theme music.

You mean "Twilight Zone" theme music.

Yep that's it. Perfect fit for Alan. 18 y.o.'s in a row could have been a twilight zone episode.

[kewlJ]

P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers.

Likely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.

[jbjb]

P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers.

Likely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.

"A lot" is more like it.

[Bill Yung]

P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers.

Likely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.

Why? The comparison here is between result and expected value, which would show the variance.

Like the story of Mickey's slot play that, supposedly, if we believe another big AP, obviously didn't happen. Unless, of course, it happens only once a year. Right, Mickey?

[kewlJ]

"A lot" is more like it.

Well congrats, jbjb. Always nice to get out of the starting gate to a new year with positive variance.

My blackjack partner had a 5 figure day to day, as well. But I am talking about just 5 figures, not mid 5 figures. It was only his 4th such day of his career, so he is feeling pretty good about himself.

I, on the other hand had a 2 figure day. But it was upper 2 figures. ($87)

[kewlJ]

I guess Bill Yung is going to pick up the slack of the anti-AP agenda guys, taking shots at various AP's and adding nothing constructive. You anti-Ap guys seem to have a deep bench.

[jbjb]

"A lot" is more like it.

Well congrats, jbjb. Always nice to get out of the starting gate to a new year with positive variance.

My blackjack partner had a 5 figure day to day, as well. But I am talking about just 5 figures, not mid 5 figures. It was only his 4th such day of his career, so he is feeling pretty good about himself.

I, on the other hand had a 2 figure day. But it was upper 2 figures. ($87)

Nice. Yeah we ran above our expectation for a few reasons. We'll run below in the future as well and we expect this. Even if we didn't have this opportunity, I'd still rather pick off abandoned multipliers and have an EV of +$20 or so then to have an EV of -$1000 playing $5 bonus poker all day.

[jbjb]

I guess Bill Yung is going to pick up the slack of the anti-AP agenda guys, taking shots at various AP's and adding nothing constructive. You anti-Ap guys seem to have a deep bench.

They're jealous losers. Let them cry.

[Alan Mendelson]

EV is nothing more than a wish and a hope. Drop it already.

EV built Las Vegas.

But you can't bank or spend EV. Why is this so difficult for you to understand?

Having EV is like a weather forecast... ask Shell if they'll let you pay for a tank of gas with EV. Ask kewlj if he ever made a mortgage payment with EV.

[kewlJ]

Ask kewlj if he ever made a mortgage payment with EV.

The answer is yes. Every dollar I earn playing blackjack comes from positive expectation play. That is +EV play. And some of those dollars paid some mortgage payments. Same answer other AP's have given, like RS yesterday, to which you issued the classy reply of profanity.

The problem is that you (alan) don't even understand what +EV is or means.

[LarryS]

Paying off a mortgage early can be bad financially.

Lets say you get a mortgage today, 15 year for APR 3.6
The inflation rate is 2,1.

leaving you effectively paying 1.5 percent.

On the 3.6 percent you get to deduct 35 percent of the interest which is the majority of the payment at the beginning

Plus you can keep that money that you would otherwuse pay off the loan with and collect yourown interest....lets say 1.5 percent in something safe or aggressively split it between stocks and bonds...possibly getting 5 percent.

you come out on the plus side...But if you have a crap rate....then by all means pay it off.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I am totally flabbergasted here. Let's see if I can sort it out:

1. Your EV is what you expect to win when you play. Do you agree?

2. You pay your bills with US currency. Do you agree?

3. EV is not a currency accepted by any business or consumer. Do you agree?

Please respond to those three questions. Yes or no to each, please.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj I am totally flabbergasted here. Let's see if I can sort it out:

1. Your EV is what you expect to win when you play. Do you agree?

2. You pay your bills with US currency. Do you agree?

3. EV is not a currency accepted by any business or consumer. Do you agree?

Please respond to those three questions. Yes or no to each, please.

This is Alan being idiotic. He either has no clue what this discussion is really about, or he is just playing games as he always does.

[coach belly]

This is Alan being idiotic.

This is another despicable post by you ...you should be banned.

[AxelWolf]

NO, You can't spend EV, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. Luckily good AP's eventually make cash while playing +EV situations.

Depending on what they are playing they may make their EV within minutes, hours, days, months. AP's can also make far more than their EV. If you took all the AP's who ever played and added all their play together, it would average out really close to what everyone's accumulated EV should be. Some guys will have went broke by playing over their BR or just because life got in the way. Some guys will have made a huge score on something and they will have way more money than their EV should be. If they stay at safe levels there won't be enough time for everything to average out with them personally(also since it happend in the past it won't effect the future). But you can bet your ass some AP ran extreemly bad at one time and he will not have enough time to catch up to what his EV should be. But some where, at some time, with someone it will have all avraged out. AP's are no diffent than the casinos, they just don't get as much volume in.

There are ways to help avoid being in situations where you will be at the extreme ends of the variance. One can run really bad but still make money. It happens all the time on plays. One guy runs bad and makes only half his EV while another guy runs good and makes double his EV.

[MisterV]

+EV is a means to a happy ending.

Hell, I'm just a ploppie and even I know that.

[mickeycrimm]

It may well create nasty arguments like I've seen a lot of here, but I'll only provide info that I know without the fighting.

The arguments get nasty when the APs get frustrated and start name-calling, and the discussions deteriorate from there.

The arguments get nasty when brain dead anti-APs don't understand and get frustrated and start name-calling, and the discussions deteriorate from there.