Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
KJ, Good example, well explained. One observation - in your 14 (I think) years of tracking your annual play you said you had two outlier years, one win/one loss. Would that mean that your one year EV is not long enough (or enough trials) to be the “long run”?
I think that is very fair to say. The "long run" is one of those things debated. I don't know the answer. I, personally have evolved a couple times already, staring out using 50,000 rounds, a number I got from the MIT team, in one of the books. For me 50,000 round is a little longer than 6 months and I have had 5 different 6 month losing periods, so that is not long enough to define long term or long run for my situation.

After I decided 50,000 rounds wasn't enough I went to a year. And I guess you could say my 2 outlier years, one in each direction proves that is not really long enough either. But I am sticking with that as my measuring stick for long run anyway. It fits nicely with figuring out your income and paying taxes, so I am sticking with it and just accept, that outlier years are possible. I am comfortable with that. At least until I come up with something better.