2018 start

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm sure you can accumulate EV. If you buy my free play you've accumulated EV. If you say to me "Alan give me $300 to lay the number 6 on the ALL bet because that's the only number I need and I'll pay you $400 win or lose" that's accumulating EV.

But I have a hard time saying "I just lost $8800 but it's the best day I ever had for EV" or "I just lost $8800 but that was additional positive EV for me."

EV is expected value, before a bet is resolved... unless you're telling me the definition has changed.

[kewlJ]

Perhaps someone could argue a case that one can accumulate EV(+or -) but there is no way to predict when or how it will be given back.

Giving it back? What are you talking about? Alan is mixing up two very different things: expectation and actual results. Don't you start doing the same.

Lets try a different scenario. I have accumulated 1000, $10 match play coupons (takes me back not many years ago when I used to collect the palms mailers discarded at local apartment mail rooms...but that's another story). So I have these 1000, $10 match play coupons in my hand, ok? So I am going to play them at roulette. Not the best option, but maybe they are roulette only matchplays. We are in Vegas, so let's use the standard Vegas double zero roulette (again not the best option), betting the 50/50 bets, red or black.

So according to Wizard's numbers, each of these match plays is worth $4.21. So each time that I place a 10 dollar bill and my match play on the roulette table, I am accumulating $4.21 in EV. It doesn't matter if that bet loses, I still accumulated $4.21 in EV.

So first 6 spins, let's say I lost them all. 6 reds, when I was betting black. Actual winnings (losses) -$60. But accumulated EV $25.26 (6 x $4.21).

And at the end of this exercise, after 1000 match plays have been played. I will have accumulated $4210 in EV. That is expectation (accumulated EV). And the actual win....that too will be somewhere close to that number. Maybe a little under, maybe a little over, but it will be close.

So Alan is mixing up expectation (accumulated EV) with actual results. The $8800 that I lost that day is represented by the -60 loss in this exercise, the first (6) $10 matchplays wagers lost. It is insignificant in the long-term. By the time we get to the long-term, in this case represented by all 1000 matchplays, we will be close to "accumulated EV". Those 6 lost bets, have no significance.

Just the same as after 250-300 days playing, accumulating $300 in EV each day, ($75,000-$90,000 for a year), that single day loss just won't mean a damn thing. The total results will be right there pretty close to expectation (accumulated EV).

[kewlJ]

I would ask if that continued accumulation of EV as he calls it is worth the $8800. Or, if the cards just sucked and he decided to quit, would the small amount of accumulated EV that he had foregone be less. Does the loss overide this EV?

I fully understand the math and that since he has an edge the long term results that are expected. But what if it's just one of those bad days where everything just seems off, including VP. Is there ever a consideration to just say eff it and go to the pool.

You are getting into voodoo here. You seem to be asking if I knew ahead of time that I would lose $8800, if I would still play to accumulate that $300 EV goal for the day? Ridiculous. Of course not. If you have some ability to tell me that before I leave my home each day, I will hire you. In the absence of that, I play and accumulate my EV, let the wins and losses fall where they may and at the end of the year (represents long-term) my actual win will be right there....reasonably close to "accumulated EV".

"One of those days", "Bad Karma", A "curse" that day? You are voodoo-ing! Unless there is a real reason why that day is negative, you play and accumulate your EV. You are going to need it at the end. Real reasons would include: being cheated. Losing control of your emotions and game (and if this occurs, you might not really be an AP), running out of cash on hand (playing bankroll), and in the case of blackjack, some sort of heat issue. These are solid real reasons. That Lady luck might not be smiling on you that day is not a real reason. That is voodoo-ism.

What if every other day, I lost a little bit early and stopped after the first or second session, or came up with some silly reason like bad karma today and quit early. I wouldn't be reaching my target EV most days and at the end of the year my accumulated EV would be 40-45 thousand instead of 75-80 thousand. And subsequently my yearly wins would also be down correlating to that expectation (accumulated EV).

Stopping prematurely (stop limit) costs money! (see post 239 in this thread). I can explain it no better than that.

[kewlJ]

Ya know it actually works the same in the work force. If you stop work early several days a week, taking a half day.....come payday, your pay check is going to be a lighter. You gotta put in the time to get your paycheck. In my case I gotta put in the time (accumulating EV) to earn what I expect to earn.

Quit early = light paycheck!

[dannyj]

Perhaps someone could argue a case that one can accumulate EV(+or -) but there is no way to predict when or how it will be given back.

Giving it back? What are you talking about? Alan is mixing up two very different things: expectation and actual results. Don't you start doing the same.

Lets try a different scenario. I have accumulated 1000, $10 match play coupons (takes me back not many years ago when I used to collect the palms mailers discarded at local apartment mail rooms...but that's another story). So I have these 1000, $10 match play coupons in my hand, ok? So I am going to play them at roulette. Not the best option, but maybe they are roulette only matchplays. We are in Vegas, so let's use the standard Vegas double zero roulette (again not the best option), betting the 50/50 bets, red or black.

So according to Wizard's numbers, each of these match plays is worth $4.21. So each time that I place a 10 dollar bill and my match play on the roulette table, I am accumulating $4.21 in EV. It doesn't matter if that bet loses, I still accumulated $4.21 in EV.

So first 6 spins, let's say I lost them all. 6 reds, when I was betting black. Actual winnings (losses) -$60. But accumulated EV $25.26 (6 x $4.21).

And at the end of this exercise, after 1000 match plays have been played. I will have accumulated $4210 in EV. That is expectation (accumulated EV). And the actual win....that too will be somewhere close to that number. Maybe a little under, maybe a little over, but it will be close.

So Alan is mixing up expectation (accumulated EV) with actual results. The $8800 that I lost that day is represented by the -60 loss in this exercise, the first (6) $10 matchplays wagers lost. It is insignificant in the long-term. By the time we get to the long-term, in this case represented by all 1000 matchplays, we will be close to "accumulated EV". Those 6 lost bets, have no significance.

Just the same as after 250-300 days playing, accumulating $300 in EV each day, ($75,000-$90,000 for a year, that single day loss just won't mean a damn thing. The total results will be right there pretty close to expectation (accumulated EV).

KJ,
Good example, well explained. One observation - in your 14 (I think) years of tracking your annual play you said you had two outlier years, one win/one loss. Would that mean that your one year EV is not long enough (or enough trials) to be the “long run”?

[LarryS]

so I ask this seriously.....what made you stop at 8800...if you had access to 100,000.

[kewlJ]

KJ, Good example, well explained. One observation - in your 14 (I think) years of tracking your annual play you said you had two outlier years, one win/one loss. Would that mean that your one year EV is not long enough (or enough trials) to be the “long run”?

I think that is very fair to say. The "long run" is one of those things debated. I don't know the answer. I, personally have evolved a couple times already, staring out using 50,000 rounds, a number I got from the MIT team, in one of the books. For me 50,000 round is a little longer than 6 months and I have had 5 different 6 month losing periods, so that is not long enough to define long term or long run for my situation.

After I decided 50,000 rounds wasn't enough I went to a year. And I guess you could say my 2 outlier years, one in each direction proves that is not really long enough either. But I am sticking with that as my measuring stick for long run anyway. It fits nicely with figuring out your income and paying taxes, so I am sticking with it and just accept, that outlier years are possible. I am comfortable with that. At least until I come up with something better.

[kewlJ]

so I ask this seriously.....what made you stop at 8800...if you had access to 100,000.

100k is my total bankroll (it's actually more than that, but I set it at 100k to start every year). BUT, I don't carry that around. It only takes 1 robbery (which I have had) or even some sort of incident of misplaced money (or chips), to learn that you have to find some compromise position.

I have an amount that I leave home with each day. And if I lose early and fairly substantial and want to continue playing, I have the ability to replenish at least enough to continue for another session or two. At my midlevel of play you can do that just by arranging slightly higher ATM withdraw limits. So if I lose early I replensh as needed and continue with my day. If I lose after my lunch break, towards the end of my day, I am usually content to quit early and call it a day, rather than run somewhere to replenish. But I am talking about quitting an hour earlier than I otherwise would have, not half a day, because it "feels like a bad day".

I can't even remember now, but I think that was the case last week. I know I had a high EV total, so I played most of the day, but I might have stopped just a tad earlier than I would have rather than run somewhere and replace funds for one more session.

I have the luxury to do that. Sometimes I am in the car being driven to one final casino for one more session and I will decide, ahh....I've played enough, racked up enough EV for today. "Let's head home". That is a benefit of self employment.

[LarryS]

So there is a limit that you hold yourself to, although its not a strict to the penny limit.
You may not quit for the reason "its a bad day"(which I can see because cards have no sense of time or sun or moon)...but you quit when you think you have lost enough.You may not quit for the voodoo reasons of "bad day or bad luck day, or its not my day".....but you do quit when you feel you have lost enough money.
Be honest....you won about 8800 the previous days of 2018.....when you lost it all back....didnt that enter into your decision...."I lost back all my winning , I am going to stop". You could have gone to the ATM. But you chose not to. So other than being tired.....there has to be other factors that stop you. Like....I lost enough

I think you did say that you sometimes say that you won enough in one place so you dont draw attention. So dont you also llimityourlosses some way. Even if its not preplanned and you just say "enough losses today". I am not talking about stopping after a small loss, or a few small losses and being that fragile. I am saying, packing it in because you simply dont want to dip in deeper to your bankroll.

If you just gamble the money you carry....and have a limit on how much you can take out of an atm daily.....that in a way is a loss limit.

[kewlJ]

So there is a limit that you hold yourself to, although its not a strict to the penny limit.
You may not quit for the reason "its a bad day"(which I can see because cards have no sense of time or sun or moon)...but you quit when you think you have lost enough.You may not quit for the voodoo reasons of "bad day or bad luck day, or its not my day".....but you do quit when you feel you have lost enough money.
Be honest....you won about 8800 the previous days of 2018.....when you lost it all back....didnt that enter into your decision...."I lost back all my winning , I am going to stop". You could have gone to the ATM. But you chose not to. So other than being tired.....there has to be other factors that stop you. Like....I lost enough

I think you did say that you sometimes say that you won enough in one place so you dont draw attention. So dont you also llimityourlosses some way. Even if its not preplanned and you just say "enough losses today". I am not talking about stopping after a small loss, or a few small losses and being that fragile. I am saying, packing it in because you simply dont want to dip in deeper to your bankroll.

If you just gamble the money you carry....and have a limit on how much you can take out of an atm daily.....that in a way is a loss limit.

That's mostly correct. I didn't even want to mention this because I know Alan or someone else why say. "well you do have a stop limit". No I don't!

A stop limit as described by Alan is saying I don't want to loss more than $2000 or $4000 (or whatever number) today. That is NOT what I am doing. I have a minimum amount that I need to feel comfortable staring a session. It's different for 6 deck vs double deck ovbioulsy (few rounds, so less funds needed).

One of the worse things a card counter can do I finally get to a juicy positive count (strong player advantage) and not have enough funds to play. Yikes! They don't hold the game (at my level) while you hit the ATM. So if my funds on hand drop below what I think is adequate to start a new session, I need to replenish. And if it is late in the day, just quitting rather than running to the bank or ATM for one more session is an option. But that is very different than the stop limits Alan is talking about.

[LarryS]

do you have a limit on what can be taken out of an atm daily. I do. I dont need to know what your limit is....but do you have one

[Alan Mendelson]

So according to Wizard's numbers, each of these match plays is worth $4.21. So each time that I place a 10 dollar bill and my match play on the roulette table, I am accumulating $4.21 in EV. It doesn't matter if that bet loses, I still accumulated $4.21 in EV.

I'm glad you wrote this explanation. So just to be sure I'm clear about what you're saying even if you lose every bet you've still accumulated this EV?

[kewlJ]

do you have a limit on what can be taken out of an atm daily. I do. I dont need to know what your limit is....but do you have one

Yeah. I arranged a higher daily limit with my bank. But that is only partially useful, at bank owned ATM's. If you use an ATM owned by someone else you are subject to their terms, so my higher limits are meaningless. Also, even at an ATM owned by my bank, like the smaller ATM's in a drugstore, even though owned by my bank, my higher limit doesn't apply. They don't want to run out of cash (and potential fees) at those smaller ATM's.

So arranging a higher limit is only so useful. I still almost have to go to the actual bank, just to get to a proper bank owned ATM.

[LarryS]

Ok just a mental exersize.....what is the difference between(and please dont tell me you cant fit 100k in your wallet...because thats not the point)

1- you walk into a casino with 100k in your wallet,and plan to have a lloss limit of 12k.

2- you walk into the casino with 8k cash and have 4 k available via atm as needed...... and you cannot lose more than 12k by your prior arrangement off what you bring coupled with what you can extract from an ATM;

in the second example arent you preplaning a loss limit by determining how much you bring, and knowing how much an atm will give you.

isnt the result of 1 and 2 exactly the same? Except in number 1...if u have poor discipline you can lose alot more.

[LarryS]

I used to question john patricks method of having a loss limit of 60 percent, and then leaving the casino.
And I would ask, what the difference between bringing1000 to the casino and going home after losing 600. Or bringing 600 and losing it all and going home.
Its just playing mind games. Its all the same in the end.

[kewlJ]

Ok just a mental exersize.....what is the difference between(and please dont tell me you cant fit 100k in your wallet...because thats not the point)

1- you walk into a casino with 100k in your wallet,and plan to have a lloss limit of 12k.

2- you walk into the casino with 8k cash and have 4 k available via atm as needed...... and you cannot lose more than 12k by your prior arrangement off what you bring coupled with what you can extract from an ATM;

in the second example arent you preplaning a loss limit by determining how much you bring, and knowing how much an atm will give you.

isnt the result of 1 and 2 exactly the same? Except in number 1...if u have poor discipline you can lose alot more.

No it isn't. May seem the same. Maybe even the effect is the same. But one is a compromise position based on safety concerns (carrying funds) and one is a voodoo 'wisdom' that goes against, AP mathematics.

The compromise 'safety' thing is actually complicated in my situation because I utilize a chip inventory as some casinos in my rotation. There have been times I actually have enough funds (by number), but don't actually have nothing useful at casino xyz that I am heading to next. That is a "chip inventory" management failure. It's happened a few times, but my "chip inventory manager" has gotten better as time has gone on.

[Alan Mendelson]

So according to Wizard's numbers, each of these match plays is worth $4.21. So each time that I place a 10 dollar bill and my match play on the roulette table, I am accumulating $4.21 in EV. It doesn't matter if that bet loses, I still accumulated $4.21 in EV.

I'm glad you wrote this explanation. So just to be sure I'm clear about what you're saying even if you lose every bet you've still accumulated this EV?

Kewlj you didn't respond so let me ask another question. What is the value of the accumulated EV from the LOSING bets? Obviously the EV of the winning bets is now cash or a cash equivalent.

[LarryS]

yes I know,thats whyI said dont tell me about `100k not fitting in your wallet. I won 10k harrahs on a the belmot stakes maybe 10-15 years ago....and the mass of money takes up my pockets and my wifes purse. So I understand that. I ask the question as a person above in the john patrick example

You go to a casino with 1000 dollars and have a loss limit and leave after losing 600

or you go to the casino with 300 dollars and a 300 ATM max(I actually have a 300 atm max) and limit your loses that way.

arent they both loss limits

[mickeycrimm]

Well yeah, I would too if you get comps on it. I just hate counting down the hands.

I would suggest this:

Are you certain that method 1 on your list doesn't generate comp points ? Both Hobey's and Tamarack generate comp points with this method.

It doesn't in a local location. Oddly, a few years ago, there was a certain machine that after downloading it, would allow you to straight cash out that amount. Had to be a glitch. Unfortunately, it got fixed.

I keep a tally counter in my glove box. A great device for collecting stats on line games. They sell them at sporting goods stores.

[coach belly]

I won 10k harrahs on a the belmot stakes maybe 10-15 years ago....and the mass of money takes up my pockets and my wifes purse.

Did they pay you in singles?

You can easily fit $10K into one pocket if all 100s.