The 18 yo's

[Mission146]

I'm not going to argue but I'll repeat the facts.

One thing I will argue is that every one of you armchair quarterbacks would have done exactly what I did which is not bet on a yo after 2, 5, 9, 14 or 18. So stop saying you would.

You arguing the math tells me you'd never bet it.

Okay, I'm done being charitable.

I told you SIX YOs. That's how many I have to see in order to figure something is up and start betting the Yo.

Sorry, but at a certain point, I'm a human being, not a robot.

But, if you're going to call me a liar, then I will call you a liar. Other than the reasons already mentioned, you're a liar because:

1.) You would have exchanged numbers with one of the guys who could verify the story. It's like playing golf and hitting a hole in one, only so much less likely. I guess this would be like playing a Par-3 eighteen hole course and hitting something like six holes in one and the rest birdies.

You only get your name in the paper if you have someone willing to say he witnessed the hole in one. I know that because I've had one in my life and my name was in the newspaper as a result.

Anyway, I'd have asked one of the other three guys to exchange numbers so that we could corroborate what we saw. If the dice aren't gaffed, there's nobody who is going to be at that table and not realize that something amazing just happened.

PROOF: I saw a 1 in 600 million shot take place on the WoO Roulette Game, took a screenshot. I got dealt Four Deuces and a Joker on Deuces Wild Joker Poker, took a picture and texted it to at least one person, but I think two.

2.) You started complaining when this thread got just a little bit derailed. I think this has been a troll the entire time, so good job keeping the conversation going.

3.) Here's what I think happened:

I don't know why this tendency amongst a subset of gamblers exists, but it seems that everyone wants to have the best story. It doesn't necessarily have to be the biggest win, it just has to be a really good story.

If you're not going to have a story of the biggest win, which would require you to theoretically have some kind of proof, then you can have a story that sees you witnessing something that is less likely than anything anyone else has ever witnessed. You wanted the story to be untouchable, so you came up with eighteen Yo's in a row.

The problem is that the story is too untouchable because it is close to impossible (but nothing is impossible) for that to happen and the conditions that you describe it happening in made it even less likely.

4.) Finally, don't tell me what I would or wouldn't bet. Playing Craps is -EV, but I've played Craps for fun on a few occasions. If I see six Yo's in a row, the bets are going to start coming out.

5.) Not only did nobody bet the Yo, but now you're telling me there were guys with $15 and $40 in the rack and they didn't bet it? We have the most disciplined Craps players in the Universe at this table, even though they're super low-limit guys, right?

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Anyway, I'm done discussing this. There was never a point that I believed you, but there was a point that I was not willing to call you a liar and argue to the extent that it is mathematically possible. The only reason that I didn't hammer home how unlikely I thought it was (as well as seriously attack the other flaws in your story) is because I thought you were a nice guy. But, now you're saying that I'm a liar because I wouldn't bet the Yo after seeing six in a row, much less eighteen in a row?

Show of hands, let's take a vote! Which is more likely:

1.) Alan Mendelson saw 18 Yo's in a row.

2.) If Mission146 saw 18 Yo's in a row, Mission146 would bet the Yo, at some point.

Your vote for #1 cancels mine for #2, so we'll start 0-0.