Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
And what you're doing is making the same critical mistake all AP's make: applying long term rules to short term play. That is, by definition, just plain dumb.
You have it completely ass backwards as usual, Harry. YOU are applying short term "logic" to a longterm situation. In the short term or short run, whether a session, a day or whatever, anything can and will occur. This is why -EV players or ploppies sometimes win short-term. This is why the likes of Alan is able to register some wins short-term and it is why YOU can win short-term. As a matter of fact, you haven't given us anything to distinguish you and your play from Alan or any other ploppie or -EV player.

BUT as you get past the extreme short term, luck runs out and the math takes over. I hate to keep quoting Dan, but you leave me no choice..."the luck will flatten out".

Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
Getting back to Rob and video poker.
While numbers like "99% return" and "101% return" sound insignificant, they're actually not.
After a relatively small number of hands, the luck will flatten out. You can't play an extended period of time at 99% return and win, and you can't play an extended period of time at 101% (provided you're playing correctly).
And one other fact that you just can't seem to grasp. You cannot take a very small sample size in which variance rules, and assume that many of these equals long-term. It doesn't work that way. Again, as you get into the longterm the math takes over and the luck (or variance) "flattens out". You cannot change the mathematics simply by willing it to be so.


Now one other thing....your stop limit thing is just nonsense. Stopping while ahead or reaching some 'goal' changes nothing, as far as what is going to happen next. What is going to happen next is determined by mathematics and stopping play doesn't change that. It will still happen next, whether your next hand or round is in 30 second or next week or next month. Some artificial stop limit isn't going to change that. I mean like Dan said, the exception would be if you stop and never play again, otherwise you are changing nothing.

I am sorry you can't grasp these simple and proven mathematical concepts, but I don't think we should have to keep going over and over it because you either can't grasp it, or refuse to grasp it.