Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
It's all talk, there is some disagreement on what exactly the % likelihood would be for 8 trips which is about what I had Sept 2018 to date, about 8 trips.

Based on what one of them said, it put it at about 7% likelihood that someone could be ahead at a million baccarat hands. I didn't play anywhere near a million hands in 8 trips, so you figure out the likelihood. It's pretty high. And like I said, moot point in that I did win, but interesting to figure.
Ok first, I though you at some point made reference to 40 winning trips? If I am mistaken, well somebody did. I didn't pull that number out of mid air. 8 trips vs 40 trips is very different.

Second, are you now conceding that your winning over these now 8 trips has been due to positive variance? Because without saying exactly what, you have been if not outright "saying" at least strongly implying that you were doing something that makes this a winning play. THAT is the part I and other members who believe in the math objected to. So again, are you now stating that your results over the past couple years (I guess now 8 trips) is due to nothing more than luck? (positive variance)
He's said he won 40 sessions in a row. MY play strategy isn't even capable of doing that. 8? Of course, but it's very likely my strategy ends up winning far more than his over those sessions. Baccarat has no jackpots.

I haven't read much about this bet and I don't know the parameters. But if Axel is going in for $50k I'd like to do the same. I'll first need mdawg's real name so I can confirm he has the funds to pay on such bets. He shouldn't be THAT afraid of doing that. After all, Californians just LOVE to boast about who and what they are.

What's the bet?