The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[BoSox]

By the way, and Boz you follow WOV, there is a known guy over there who is no friend of MDawg who is posting that the chances of a Craps player winding up ahead due to the house edge, even after a million rolls, is about 5%

Did you mean 1 million bet resolutions (for pass/don't pass and come/don't come bets) or 1 million rolls ?

Good one tableplay! Goes to show just how crafty he is.

[tableplay]

By the way, and Boz you follow WOV, there is a known guy over there who is no friend of MDawg who is posting that the chances of a Craps player winding up ahead due to the house edge, even after a million rolls, is about 5%

Did you mean 1 million bet resolutions (for pass/don't pass and come/don't come bets) or 1 million rolls ?

Good one tableplay! Goes to show just how crafty he is.

Cheers M8.

[MDawg]

And now there are some others who have stepped in and agreed that statistically it is quite possible that MDawg won. Which, it's a moot point in that I DID win, but now even some of the mathematicians have opined that it could very well be within reasonable statistical possibility.

It's one thing to say that something might not happen, quite another to say that it cannot happen.

If we get to that point and this contest with Axel happens, I'll tell you what I will be saying or explaining when playing. Not a thing (other than shouting and slamming the cards when I win). Even when I play BJ and am counting I have one of those basic strategy cards with me and look at it every now and then to play dumb. In the past I used to do that too, to slow down the DD game and ask a player what cards he was holding, in pitched games. Nowadays there are very few pitched BJ games so it's easy to see every card including in DD.

[mickeycrimm]

And now there are some others who have stepped in and agreed that statistically it is quite possible that MDawg won. Which, it's a moot point in that I DID win, but now even some of the mathematicians have opined that it could very well be within reasonable statistical possibility.

It's one thing to say that something might not happen, quite another to say that it cannot happen.

If we get to that point and this contest with Axel happens, I'll tell you what I will be saying or explaining when playing. Not a thing (other than shouting and slamming the cards when I win). Even when I play BJ and am counting I have one of those basic strategy cards with me and look at it every now and then to play dumb. In the past I used to do that too, to slow down the DD game and ask a player what cards he was holding, in pitched games. Nowadays there are very few pitched BJ games so it's easy to see every card including in DD.

I've already said its possible you experienced some positive variance. So where did they put the likelyhood of you winning, 2%? That's a 1 in 50 chance. It's like saying if 100 people play a certain amount of hands then only 2 out of 100 are projected to be winners. What has happened in the past, your winning, has nothing to do with the future. So in the future your chance of being ahead after playing that same number of hands is 2%. About a 1 in 50 chance.

[MDawg]

It's all talk, there is some disagreement on what exactly the % likelihood would be for 8 trips which is about what I had Sept 2018 to date, about 8 trips.

Based on what one of them said, it put it at about 7% likelihood that someone could be ahead at a million baccarat hands. I didn't play anywhere near a million hands in 8 trips, so you figure out the likelihood. It's pretty high. And like I said, moot point in that I did win, but interesting to figure.

Another of them said that he's obviously playing at an advantage and varying the bet, and these calculations are based on someone flat betting with no advantage, which doesn't apply to his play in any way shape or form anyway.

Like I said, if anyone ever watches me, I'm not going to say anything, I mean obviously, with pit bosses and everyone present all I do is just play. And win.

[kewlJ]

It's all talk, there is some disagreement on what exactly the % likelihood would be for 8 trips which is about what I had Sept 2018 to date, about 8 trips.

Based on what one of them said, it put it at about 7% likelihood that someone could be ahead at a million baccarat hands. I didn't play anywhere near a million hands in 8 trips, so you figure out the likelihood. It's pretty high. And like I said, moot point in that I did win, but interesting to figure.

Ok first, I though you at some point made reference to 40 winning trips? If I am mistaken, well somebody did. I didn't pull that number out of mid air. 8 trips vs 40 trips is very different.

Second, are you now conceding that your winning over these now 8 trips has been due to positive variance? Because without saying exactly what, you have been if not outright "saying" at least strongly implying that you were doing something that makes this a winning play. THAT is the part I and other members who believe in the math objected to. So again, are you now stating that your results over the past couple years (I guess now 8 trips) is due to nothing more than luck? (positive variance)

[MDawg]

I don't know where anyone got 40 trips any more than how someone figured twenty million to one.

I started up again (after the decade or so hiatus) September 2018, there were only two trips in 2018. I am going off memory I am not certain until I look at my records but I believe that there were four or five trips in 2019, and one in Feb/March 2020. (There was a trip that started right after XMas 2019 ended mid January 2020.)

Each trip did consist of stays at more than one casino, but each was a continuous single trip.

[kewlJ]

So you are conveniently responding to only the number of trips part of my post.

Are you now conceding that, your winnings over the last 2 years, on these 8 trips are due luck? Positive variance only and NOT something you are doing that makes this a winning play and you a winning player?

[AxelWolf]

How much he actually won or lost in severely immaterial. One certainly could have won the amount he's talking about given the number of trips he's made. I don't even think it's that outrageous. But, he would have us believe he has a way to beat baccarat. And he will continue to do so, as if there's some type of skill that he possesses. If I recall correctly, in a previous post one of his claims are that if somebody followed him around mimicking his bets they too would be winners(Can somebody can find that particular post I'm just too lazy). Would he be willing to back that claim up? If he's guaranteeing you would win following his lead... how about a situation where he pays any and all losses at the end, or he gets half of all that person's wins at the end? I mean, if you're always winning you should be more than willing to take that deal, it sounds like free money for everyone except the casino. Furthermore, that person would be rooting for him and praying for him to succeed. They would be there as an allie. They would be more than happy to report how great the Dawg is. Sign me up for that!! I'll give him a trophy myself if he wins at least $3,500, and call him the GOD of Baccarat. The more I think about it, that would resolve a lot of problems, no need for verifiers in separate locations or any of that b******* no complicated rules or limitations, it would be very simple. perhaps one other person to hold earnest money to make sure he gets paid his half of any winnings or pays all the losses with accurate reporting. I'll bring 50 or a hundred thousand or whatever he suggests. I'll even give half my winnings to to Dan and Mike to give out to the Forum numbers somehow or something like that, whatever the case, I'll find a way to give out half the winnings to the form numbers.

EVERYONE WINS AND THE DAWG IS OUR HERO.

Win or lose, you would still be my hero if you take this on.

[coach belly]

how about a situation where he pays any and all losses at the end, or he gets half of all that person's wins at the end?

The player who sits alongside MDawg and copies his bets would risk nothing?

MDawg would essentially stake this player in exchange for half of the player's winnings?

[redietz]

I would be very careful doing something like this. The coronavirus affects senses of taste and smell in many of those infected. What if the sense of baccarat is also affected? If MDawg goes out in public and risks his abilities, everyone loses. No trip reports, no scintillating analyses, and most importantly, no pics of ribs. But perhaps he is willing to risk his abilities just so the folks at VCT can benefit financially and appreciate his skills and the ribs.

For VCT who would like a cut of the endeavor, I remind them of Mark 8:36.

[Rob.Singer]

It's all talk, there is some disagreement on what exactly the % likelihood would be for 8 trips which is about what I had Sept 2018 to date, about 8 trips.

Based on what one of them said, it put it at about 7% likelihood that someone could be ahead at a million baccarat hands. I didn't play anywhere near a million hands in 8 trips, so you figure out the likelihood. It's pretty high. And like I said, moot point in that I did win, but interesting to figure.

Ok first, I though you at some point made reference to 40 winning trips? If I am mistaken, well somebody did. I didn't pull that number out of mid air. 8 trips vs 40 trips is very different.

Second, are you now conceding that your winning over these now 8 trips has been due to positive variance? Because without saying exactly what, you have been if not outright "saying" at least strongly implying that you were doing something that makes this a winning play. THAT is the part I and other members who believe in the math objected to. So again, are you now stating that your results over the past couple years (I guess now 8 trips) is due to nothing more than luck? (positive variance)

He's said he won 40 sessions in a row. MY play strategy isn't even capable of doing that. 8? Of course, but it's very likely my strategy ends up winning far more than his over those sessions. Baccarat has no jackpots.

I haven't read much about this bet and I don't know the parameters. But if Axel is going in for $50k I'd like to do the same. I'll first need mdawg's real name so I can confirm he has the funds to pay on such bets. He shouldn't be THAT afraid of doing that. After all, Californians just LOVE to boast about who and what they are.

What's the bet?

[blackhole]

How much he actually won or lost in severely immaterial. One certainly could have won the amount he's talking about given the number of trips he's made. I don't even think it's that outrageous. But, he would have us believe he has a way to beat baccarat. And he will continue to do so, as if there's some type of skill that he possesses. If I recall correctly, in a previous post one of his claims are that if somebody followed him around mimicking his bets they too would be winners(Can somebody can find that particular post I'm just too lazy). Would he be willing to back that claim up? If he's guaranteeing you would win following his lead... how about a situation where he pays any and all losses at the end, or he gets half of all that person's wins at the end? I mean, if you're always winning you should be more than willing to take that deal, it sounds like free money for everyone except the casino. Furthermore, that person would be rooting for him and praying for him to succeed. They would be there as an allie. They would be more than happy to report how great the Dawg is. Sign me up for that!! I'll give him a trophy myself if he wins at least $3,500, and call him the GOD of Baccarat. The more I think about it, that would resolve a lot of problems, no need for verifiers in separate locations or any of that b******* no complicated rules or limitations, it would be very simple. perhaps one other person to hold earnest money to make sure he gets paid his half of any winnings or pays all the losses with accurate reporting. I'll bring 50 or a hundred thousand or whatever he suggests. I'll even give half my winnings to to Dan and Mike to give out to the Forum numbers somehow or something like that, whatever the case, I'll find a way to give out half the winnings to the form numbers.

EVERYONE WINS AND THE DAWG IS OUR HERO.

Win or lose, you would still be my hero if you take this on.

What a complete fucking asshole you are Axel. Is this the best you could come up with? You’re more of a fucking idiot than I thought. How long did it take you to think of this clever maneuver?

Why don’t you prove your fucking claims of gambling success? You won’t because you can’t and never did. You’re just another gambling hustler looking for another mark on these bullshit forums.

[mickeycrimm]

For making the most accurate calculation of MDawg's chances of being ahead the number of hands he played total for all his trips would need to be known.

How many sessions he played each trip? And how many trips did he made can't really give an accurate calculation of his chances to be ahead.

The number of years his winning streak has lasted doesn't put anything into perspective. What if he only made a few trips and played only a few hands each trip? To say you have a 2 year winning streak there is misleading.

I've been arguing that you have very little chance to win 40 sessions in a row. I said SESSIONS, NOT TRIPS. If he's in the hotel for 4 days THATS A TRIP. How many sessions did he play? 3? 8? 10? 20? How many sessions did he play over the four day TRIP?

What is a session. If you quit playing for any length of time then go back to the game it's a new SESSION

And MDawg has admitted to at least one losing session.

[mickeycrimm]

How much he actually won or lost in severely immaterial. One certainly could have won the amount he's talking about given the number of trips he's made. I don't even think it's that outrageous. But, he would have us believe he has a way to beat baccarat. And he will continue to do so, as if there's some type of skill that he possesses. If I recall correctly, in a previous post one of his claims are that if somebody followed him around mimicking his bets they too would be winners(Can somebody can find that particular post I'm just too lazy). Would he be willing to back that claim up? If he's guaranteeing you would win following his lead... how about a situation where he pays any and all losses at the end, or he gets half of all that person's wins at the end? I mean, if you're always winning you should be more than willing to take that deal, it sounds like free money for everyone except the casino. Furthermore, that person would be rooting for him and praying for him to succeed. They would be there as an allie. They would be more than happy to report how great the Dawg is. Sign me up for that!! I'll give him a trophy myself if he wins at least $3,500, and call him the GOD of Baccarat. The more I think about it, that would resolve a lot of problems, no need for verifiers in separate locations or any of that b******* no complicated rules or limitations, it would be very simple. perhaps one other person to hold earnest money to make sure he gets paid his half of any winnings or pays all the losses with accurate reporting. I'll bring 50 or a hundred thousand or whatever he suggests. I'll even give half my winnings to to Dan and Mike to give out to the Forum numbers somehow or something like that, whatever the case, I'll find a way to give out half the winnings to the form numbers.

EVERYONE WINS AND THE DAWG IS OUR HERO.

Win or lose, you would still be my hero if you take this on.

What a complete fucking asshole you are Axel. Is this the best you could come up with? You’re more of a fucking idiot than I thought. How long did it take you to think of this clever maneuver?

Why don’t you prove your fucking claims of gambling success? You won’t because you can’t and never did. You’re just another gambling hustler looking for another mark on these bullshit forums.

Brokeassblackhole is all butthurt again. The guy just won't quit sniveling.

[coach belly]

I've been arguing that you have very little chance to win 40 sessions in a row.

He never claimed to have won 40 sessions in a row, that was hyperbole used by detractors.

He's claimed to have won for every trip since 2018, which he wrote above is 8.

He had losing sessions within the trips, and he wrote about them months ago.

Half Smoke estimated that there were 12 trips of 800 hands each. tableplay calculated the odds of winning 12 consecutive trips of flat-betting 800 hands each trip to be nearly 20 million to 1.

[The Boz]

Copied from MD’s recent WoV post:

“If you are a cash player, you will see much less courtesy when it comes to both the reserved tables and the higher limits - for example back then, this was fifteen or so years ago, at Bellagio, there was this guy I remember like it was yesterday who brought in $5M cash and all they let him bet max was $50K, and didn't even give him a reserved Bacc. table. He lost every penny, he was a terrible player, mostly flat betting and so unlucky it was ominous, I mean the guy was barely winning a third of his hands most of the time, betting against streaks, betting against obvious patterns, if you'd simply bet against him it would have been a guaranteed win session, but most people would defer to his big bets out of politeness and stay out when he plopped his constant 50K down on the circle”

This type of garbage is exactly why most everyone other than Coach thinks you are full of shit.

This guy was no better a player than you, nor a worse one. Unless of course you are Edge Sorting as discussed before, which we know anyone capable of that would not be posting detailed public reports. You and your discussion of “patterns” again shows you are full of shit and only looking for attention.

But as I have said before, you are doing a good job of getting attention and making a mockery of gambling math with your beliefs. And doing it better than the other Baccarat clowns over the years. I put you right of at the top of the Hall of Fame of Bacc believers over the years.

[MDawg]

Boz, at a minimum I don't think I could say it any better than


As far as Axel's proposal, I have to read it when I have more time.

[The Boz]

Boz, at a minimum I don't think I could say it any better than


As far as Axel's proposal, I have to read it when I have more time.

I do hope you read it and consider it. I truly you believe you want to prove us all wrong. And if you can do what you say you can in reading cards and streaks, it shouldn’t be hard. The only question is risking showing your methods and brining more attention from casinos to your gift.

As for EvenBob, you probably don’t want that guy as a defender, he has pushed his ability to beat Roulette with his system for many years. With its 5.26% HA, I doubt even you believe it can be beat long term. Or can it?

[MDawg]

As I've explained many times, roulette (and craps) are different from Baccarat. With those, each event is truly independent and anything might happen. From the pause of the craps player to check out the cleavage across the way, to how long the croupier takes to drop the ball into the roulette wheel, each event is as independent as a spin of a slot machine's reels.

Ostensibly, Baccarat is the same - with the subtle difference of that once the cards are set in the shoe, the outcome is fixed, cannot change. No matter how many busty cocktail waitresses in miniskirts come by distracting you, the hands to come will not change. I've explained more than a few times why this makes a difference.

Is there more? Will I comment on it?