Belly is a nutless wonder acting tough behind an anonymous monitor.....a broke pussy like him wouldn`t have the sack to meet up with anyone face to face
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Belly is a nutless wonder acting tough behind an anonymous monitor.....a broke pussy like him wouldn`t have the sack to meet up with anyone face to face
He added the other terms after I accepted the original challenge...here's a summaryQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Originally Posted by bocce ball
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Originally Posted by coach belly
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Originally Posted by bocce ball
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Originally Posted by coach bellyNegotiated in good faith? He says his conditions are non-negotiable. His intention is to make the challenge unrealistic.
Alan explains that here:
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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Originally Posted by RS__
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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Originally Posted by coach belly
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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Technically, Alan, "100-play video poker" is never labeled "100-hand video poker." There's a reason for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If you're going by the letter of the law, mickey should have stipulated a single line machine. If you're going by the letter of the law, coach should have argued for "plays" being the bet, not "hands." Plays are not hands. That's why the games makers felt it necessary to call them "100-play" machines and not "100 hands" machines. In fact, there may be a legal requirement they be called plays rather than hands. Regnis, any thoughts on that?
It comes down to definitions, possibly legal definitions.
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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Originally Posted by coach belly
I'm still willing to accept your bet as stated below...100 to 1 that I won't be ahead after one million hands on a 98% game.
No add-on nonsense conditions...we play it straight just like you wrote it from the start.
My intention is to take the original bet, but you have shown yourself to be a phony by adding conditions and restrictions that make the whole thing impractical and unrealistic...even though my chance of winning the bet is about 0.0000000000001%.
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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
No problem?...what assurance is there that you'll even show up?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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Originally Posted by RS__
Looks like the Wizard doesn't agree with you...Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wiz...er/multi-hand/
It's more likely that "100-play" sounds catchier than "100-hand" , so that's what they named it.
And behind your anonymous moniker (or is it monitor, LOL)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the game manufacturers and the casinos outrank Shackleford in terms of the designated name of their game.
It's easy enough to debunk this. If anyone finds a machine that is labeled a "100-hand" machine, that would settle it. My hypothesis is that nobody's going to find one.
As far as disagreeing with Shackleford, I disagree with Shackleford on many things. I don't hold him in much esteem.
No, you tried this "definition" issue previously. It doesn't work.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Regardless of what the law says or how the games are labeled WE ALL KNOW what is being discussed here. Plays = hands. Period.
That was never an issue before.
The issue is Mickey is concerned about the variance of a 100-hand or 100-play machine vs a single line game.
There is no definition debate here. Don't try to create it. It's not going to work.
And, the words hand and play have always been interchangeable.
this is bullshit. drop it.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That's LoneStarHorse AKA OneArmedBandit AKA HesNotMyPresQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Remember when he offered to pay this forum's maintenance fee?
I exposed and humiliated him here, then Druff kicked him to the curb.
He still hasn't gotten over it...so he's on a mission.
You'd think he'd be able to handle it better, since the same thing's happened to him several times on all different forums.
We were supposed to meet in AC, so he could pay off a bet he lost to me, but he scurried back into his hole when he saw his shadow.
I believe that you "Select Hands" and "Bet per Hand" on the multi-play machines.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What do you suppose that means?
No thanks, Alan. If the designation is "100 Play" instead of "100 Hand," and multiple manufacturers have committed to it, there's probably a reason. But if you have evidence to the contrary, be my guest.
I`m not who you think I am Coach Sandusky....and don`t talk to me about paying off bets. Didn`t you just stiff a whole forum of their entry fees in a bogus contest you ran??. Yeah I heard that storyQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's LoneStarHorse AKA OneArmedBandit AKA HesNotMyPresQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Remember when he offered to pay this forum's maintenance fee?
I exposed and humiliated him here, then Druff kicked him to the curb.
He still hasn't gotten over it...so he's on a mission.
You'd think he'd be able to handle it better, since the same thing's happened to him several times on all different forums.
We were supposed to meet in AC, so he could pay off a bet he lost to me, but he scurried back into his hole when he saw his shadow.
redietz is simply spreading his corn again because he knows he's pushing definition BS. He's on mickey's side because of his AP persuasion, but apparently he has yet to figure out the foolishness of doing so. If you play one hand of VP, it's exactly the same as a single play. And if you max bet a one hundred play machine, you'll end up with 100 hands. Pretty simple, stupid. Now you can go check with your collection of math professors and lawyers, but all they'll do is laugh profusely.
Bottom line--mickey chickened out, and he cannot save face on this one.
Coach, you mean this clown Biloxi bill is the same yellowbelly with the make believe family who was afraid to meet with me in the Hard Rock garage after dark? How cowardly is this chump??:)
OK Donkey...be careful, it's easy to spot your tells, you're going off the rails again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
Yes, it's the Donkey back for another whipping. His tells are easy to spot...Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
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Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
You know what I`m talking about scumbag. Careful or I`ll tell the forum you stiffed where you`re hiding. Glad to see ypu realized ignoring me wont workQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyYes, it's the Donkey back for another whipping. His tells are easy to spot...Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
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Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
It says right on all of the multi-play machines "Select Hands".Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
When you select 100 hands, you see images...100 groups of 5 cards each...right on the screen in front of you.
Those are the hands that you are playing, they are individual hands of VP.
That's why it says "Select Hands", that means those groups of cards are the hands.
Oh boy...the men in the white coats can't be far behind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4TzXkRdKvo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fn3...n36l_z3WY#t=24
If anyone has seen your wife/great grandmother, they`d think you would want a "make believe" family too:(Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I think we all agree Biloxi Bill is now dead in the water.
Thanks for stopping by, Biloxi Bill.
And we can all agree coach made him eat his lunch more times than we can count. In my case, after I spotted his multiple lies about his "family" and the Wynn, it's been easy picking his bs apart piece by piece. The best part about all this is that exposing him gets under his skin easier than a pimp trying out the new talent.
I must say it`s very amusing watching you and your lover boy Coach Jackoff trying to figure out who I am....not quite as amusing as you taking your wife out in public without a leash on though...freaks folks out in shopping malls I`m sure :eek:
Who cares? I was talking about 1 million hands as classically played, you are dealt five cards and you can draw up to five cards. I never said anything about 10,000 hands on a hundred play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
A HUNDRED PLAY IS NOT PLAYING 100 DIFFERENT HANDS AT THE SAME TIME.
IT IS PLAYING THE SAME HAND WITH 100 DIFFERENT DRAWS.
[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;49843]Alan, while you are at it get the name of the person hiding behind the anonymous moniker, coach belly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;49866]David BellQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAlan, while you are at it get the name of the person hiding behind the anonymous moniker, coach belly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
[QUOTE=coach belly;49867]LOL, sure it is....more like Davey BallonmychinQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmDavid BellQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I'd quit while you're behind mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWho cares? I was talking about 1 million hands as classically played, you are dealt five cards and you can draw up to five cards. I never said anything about 10,000 hands on a hundred play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
A HUNDRED PLAY IS NOT PLAYING 100 DIFFERENT HANDS AT THE SAME TIME.
IT IS PLAYING THE SAME HAND WITH 100 DIFFERENT DRAWS.
That was good, mickey. You teased out the crucial difference and stated it pretty clearly. Hard to argue with that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerI'd quit while you're behind mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWho cares? I was talking about 1 million hands as classically played, you are dealt five cards and you can draw up to five cards. I never said anything about 10,000 hands on a hundred play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
A HUNDRED PLAY IS NOT PLAYING 100 DIFFERENT HANDS AT THE SAME TIME.
IT IS PLAYING THE SAME HAND WITH 100 DIFFERENT DRAWS.
But what a shame he never articulated that point when he made the challenge....It's what every AP always does--they go in thinking they know it all, and when the facts get fed to them that they clearly don't and the bet gets real at the same time, they either run for the hills or argue the parameters, hoping that it'll all just go away. Cowardice without prejudice.
Hey, Rob, still want to bet I'm the R.E.Dietz who won the Wise Guys Contest?
This is stupid. Blackasshole and coach belly are trying to go for this "gotcha!" moment. We all know what Mickey meant when he introduced the 100-1 bet. Coach belly is just a troll that posts stupid shit pretending he's following in Rob Stringer's amazing footsteps even though he probably doesn't even gamble. Blackasshole doesn't understand how math works and thinks AP's are making shit up because he can't fathom the idea someone can actually win with a legitimate edge in a casino.
Let's not give these guys (including Rob Stringer) the time of day to respond to their nonsense. The same goes for Alan, although that should go without saying.
You routinely misquote and mislead people . I never challenged anyone. All I said was I would have no problem laying 100 to 1 against someone being ahead on a 98% game after one million hands. It was fat belly that made the challenge and tried to switch it to a hundred play where the deal button gets hit just 10,000 times. I would never lay 100 to 1 on just 10,000 deals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
And who fed me the facts? It certainly wasn't you. You know absolutely nothing about the mathematics of gambling. All you know is quackery. I was the one who explained it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. So I'm sure you guys are raring to go on it now after I explained it. But, unlike you, I don't make negative expectation bets.
Unfortunately it wasn't specified in Mickey's original statement that the million hands had to be played on a single line game. You can't dispute that.
Coach came up with the idea of using a 100-line game.
Mickey worries that Coach might be dealt some big winners and lose to that volatility.
That's where this stands. Everything else is static. Everything else is spam. Save your insults guys, including those in the peanut gallery.
This bet will never be played out.
Next.
I'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Words of wisdom from the great RSQuote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Since I’ve read about several great AP moves in the past I certainly believe it happens. But, every great move I read about means it’s been exposed and that move is over. I also believe for example the famous Phil Ivey and many other famous poker and AP players who all became or were already degenerate gamblers, will end up if not already broke and in debt. The well does dry up and could only handle so much of losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on crap tables, golf courses, etc. etc. These pros may be gifted with certain traits but are for the most part dumb as rocks. Great plays come and go, and the only thing in between is a shitty grind the casinos will always try and stop, but aren’t really overly concerned about.
I’ve also noticed you never read anything from these pros on forums. There nowhere to be found. All you do read about on these forums are envious morons like prime example “RS” who want to convince everyone reading them that their the real deal, and are no different than the proven exposed big boys.
The alleged AP’s on these forums, (several who admitted they began their AP career while being homeless already) are two-bit gambling junkies traveling all over the place for free food, comps, and a few bucks. Many if not all who are on Medicaid and bilking the system for other freebies. Not one of these idiots with any real future in their forecast have ever proven anything positive about their AP claims. Just a bunch of bullshit. Not one of them have ever been exposed of a great play. Their claim to fame is getting trespassed. Heck, I’ve even been accused of card counting which is hilarious just for getting lucky and kicking their ass.
Not only are these two-bit phony alleged forum AP’s envious of the big boy exposed AP’s, their envious of the people that could spend a week in a casino and lose more than they could make in a year. These same people are laughing all the way home and looking forward to the next visit. By the way, several times these same people having a good time losing money could also win more in one visit then these assholes on these forums could make in one year.
Players like Alan who like and could afford to gamble of course want to play the smartest way possible giving them the best odds of a win. Winning for people who could afford it is nothing but free ammo for the next visit. Plus, there’s always that chance for the big win.
These two-bit alleged AP’s are grinding out a bullshit life (like Mickey allegedly confirms) that could crumble at any time, and going forward is always getting worse and worse.
When people are able to visit casinos, and enjoy them for the gamble, RFB, shows, getting their asses licked like their something special will always drive the two-bit AP’s up a wall.
All AP’s really got is coming to sites like this and trying to prove with unproven bullshit how much smarter they are able to grind endless nickels out of a casino. Why else would they even be here? It makes no sense at all why any AP would be here bragging about their business. Are they trying to motivate everyone reading these forums to get the same idea and weaken their bread and butter market?
I’m not here to prove anything about myself, since I make no alleged claims of anything. You assholes are the ones talking all this nonsense with nothing but typed words.
Then again, maybe I could suck “redietz’s” dick and he’ll finally show me some meaningless handicapping tournaments he won.
Really guys, take a fucken walk and pack your lonely envious bullshit up and take it with you
I don't think that's true. According to The Wizard, Dancer, Grochowski and everything else I've read the EV is the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I think you need to ask this over at WOV. I'm not a member there anymore so I can't ask it. I would love to see what that braintrust has to say.
However, if you will just say you're afraid of the volatility (and not the EV) of Coach on a 100-line game, we can put this to rest.
LOL -- most of what you've written could be applicable to people making a living in any walk of life. Not terribly famous? Yeah, I'd say that applies to your run of the mill lawyer, accountant, police officer, soldier, nurse, teacher. Not a 1%er? Yeah, same deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeWords of wisdom from the great RSQuote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Since I’ve read about several great AP moves in the past I certainly believe it happens. But, every great move I read about means it’s been exposed and that move is over. I also believe for example the famous Phil Ivey and many other famous poker and AP players who all became or were already degenerate gamblers, will end up if not already broke and in debt. The well does dry up and could only handle so much of losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on crap tables, golf courses, etc. etc. These pros may be gifted with certain traits but are for the most part dumb as rocks. Great plays come and go, and the only thing in between is a shitty grind the casinos will always try and stop, but aren’t really overly concerned about.
I’ve also noticed you never read anything from these pros on forums. There nowhere to be found. All you do read about on these forums are envious morons like prime example “RS” who want to convince everyone reading them that their the real deal, and are no different than the proven exposed big boys.
The alleged AP’s on these forums, (several who admitted they began their AP career while being homeless already) are two-bit gambling junkies traveling all over the place for free food, comps, and a few bucks. Many if not all who are on Medicaid and bilking the system for other freebies. Not one of these idiots with any real future in their forecast have ever proven anything positive about their AP claims. Just a bunch of bullshit. Not one of them have ever been exposed of a great play. Their claim to fame is getting trespassed. Heck, I’ve even been accused of card counting which is hilarious just for getting lucky and kicking their ass.
Not only are these two-bit phony alleged forum AP’s envious of the big boy exposed AP’s, their envious of the people that could spend a week in a casino and lose more than they could make in a year. These same people are laughing all the way home and looking forward to the next visit. By the way, several times these same people having a good time losing money could also win more in one visit then these assholes on these forums could make in one year.
Players like Alan who like and could afford to gamble of course want to play the smartest way possible giving them the best odds of a win. Winning for people who could afford it is nothing but free ammo for the next visit. Plus, there’s always that chance for the big win.
These two-bit alleged AP’s are grinding out a bullshit life (like Mickey allegedly confirms) that could crumble at any time, and going forward is always getting worse and worse.
When people are able to visit casinos, and enjoy them for the gamble, RFB, shows, getting their asses licked like their something special will always drive the two-bit AP’s up a wall.
All AP’s really got is coming to sites like this and trying to prove with unproven bullshit how much smarter they are able to grind endless nickels out of a casino. Why else would they even be here? It makes no sense at all why any AP would be here bragging about their business. Are they trying to motivate everyone reading these forums to get the same idea and weaken their bread and butter market?
I’m not here to prove anything about myself, since I make no alleged claims of anything. You assholes are the ones talking all this nonsense with nothing but typed words.
Then again, maybe I could suck “redietz’s” dick and he’ll finally show me some meaningless handicapping tournaments he won.
Really guys, take a fucken walk and pack your lonely envious bullshit up and take it with you
I'm technically not an AP, but I'm glad to be doing what I'm doing, and I will defend them. I always felt being arguably the best at whatever I do could give me a platform for other endeavors. It just so happened that this was what I did best. It hasn't worked out as well as I would have liked, but (to paraphrase from Blade Runner) what does? There wouldn't be nationally published articles, or op ed debates, or professional papers without my expertise. Would I like to be on television every day? Not really. A Christmas special would be nice, though. Sad to say, nobody's asked, and I'm too busy being good to do podcasts. Would I like to hang out in a multi-million dollar pad? Ask my friend, Tony Stark.
As for you blackhole, you assume what? A person shouldn't revel and take pride in their expertise? It's more important to be the dude blowing the big bucks to casinos like a horse's ass? If you say so. I'd rather have the expertise. That's what gets you remembered. That's what gets you published.
Blackhole thinks he's somehow making a revelatory point here. He's not. I run into people like him every day. People who continually lose to casinos have issues of all sort with people who don't. Famous people have issues with people who win. Wealthy people have issues with people who win. The run-of-the-mill schmuck who donates 5K a year to casinos has issues with people who win. It sticks in their craw. It undermines their self image. It really, really bothers them.
Good, It should.
I'm convinced redietz is mentally challenged. The only thing you walk into everyday are walls. Get lost and find some help you fn weirdo.
That was cogent, blackhole. Well done, buddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
By the way, and just speaking for myself, I'm not lonely. I'm certainly not envious, except maybe of Brad Pitt.
blackhole is the OP of this thread, and his point is well-taken.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
But he's not a party to this challenge, trying to go for a "gotcha" moment.
I think I can be ahead after 1 million hands on a 98% game...and I'm willing to try.
But I would need to play on a 100-play machine, because that's the only practical way to play a million hands in a reasonable amount of time.
And I would use a multi-denominational betting strategy, because that might give me a better chance to win.
I believe these stipulations are fair, and meet the original intent of the following...
Apparently I have an edge with my strategy at 100-1 odds, I don't know if that's true.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But what was written back in early February still rings true...
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Originally Posted by coach belly
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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Give it up you broke homo, it`s obvious you don`t even gamble....Stick to your collection of Tiger Beat magazine and other teen boy paraphanelia
No....I'd like you to prove yourself right here. The only reason you dodge doing so by making it some kind of bet without parameters or anything else, is because you're close to certain no one would bother. And you're kind of like mickey. He routinely makes claims that might probably impress the homeless. Really, the same can be said of yours.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Let's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars :) where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!
So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.
Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.
Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!
You're probably right, Rob. I mean, giving professional papers, being published in national publications, winning contests like the Wise Guys and Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl, and having the occasional client like Billy Walters pale in comparison to being an unpaid stringer for Gaming Today, inventing a martingale video poker system, and having absolutely nobody in either the gaming industry or the video poker business go to bat for him. I stand corrected.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerNo....I'd like you to prove yourself right here. The only reason you dodge doing so by making it some kind of bet without parameters or anything else, is because you're close to certain no one would bother. And you're kind of like mickey. He routinely makes claims that might probably impress the homeless. Really, the same can be said of yours.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I can`t stand Rob but I gotta agree with him here...if you have all this bullshit, then just fucking show it for God`s sake...you`d think you`d be foaming at the mouth to prove him wrong....who the fuck wants a "package" in the mail?
Well, lets see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
(1) I'm a real person. Shipping stuff to other real people seems like reasonable thing to do.
(2) Much of it is copyrighted. I'm not going to publicly post copyrighted material. I can make one copy for "personal use" and ship it to somebody for a one-to-one discussion, but I won't publicly post it. As a writer myself, I would sue the bejesus out of someone who did that.
(3) Rob gets to PM me if he wants to critique the stuff. I like that.
In case you missed it, Bill, try www.playbook.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys for a summary of the Wise Guys Contest.
I never said you were lying or weren`t believable....just dont see why you wouldn`t wanna shut the guy up....but thats your businessQuote:
Originally Posted by redietzWell, lets see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Biloxi Bill
(1) I'm a real person. Shipping stuff to other real people seems like reasonable thing to do.
(2) Much of it is copyrighted. I'm not going to publicly post copyrighted material. I can make one copy for "personal use" and ship it to somebody for a one-to-one discussion, but I won't publicly post it. As a writer myself, I would sue the bejesus out of someone who did that.
(3) Rob gets to PM me if he wants to critique the stuff. I like that.
In case you missed it, Bill, try www.playbook.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys for a summary of the Wise Guys Contest.
This has just about run its course. I would suggest that Coach offer exact terms and locations. If Mickey doesn't accept how about we kill this thread.
Similarly, Rob--why not let Redietz send you the info?
I guess it's just more fun to continue this stuff endlessly but my logical mind says these issues are easily put to rest.
Bill, you can't just post copyrighted material. The "Tipsters or Gypsters?" have a big-ass copyright notice right on the front page.
I am horrified that people think it's okay to just willy nilly post online anything written by anybody. That's illegal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Did I include multi-plays? NOPE!!! Rob, you are so stupid but think you are smart. Sure, whether it's one hand or 1 million hands the ER is the same. But I wasn't talking about ER. I was talking about VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. You, Alan, and fatbelly are nitwits. VARIANCE, ask your favorite mathematician. You idiots think VARIANCE doesn't have anything to do with it. You imbecile's never even heard of VARIANCE until I mentioned it. You numskulls don't know anything about VARIANCE, start a thread on WoV about VARIANCE. See what answers you get about VARIANCE.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerLet's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars :) where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!
So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.
Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.
Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!
If you don't think VARIANCE plays a roll then let's do this. Lay me 100 to 1 on just one hand of 7/5 Bonus Poker. If I lose the hand I will pay you $100. If I'm at breakeven or ahead after the hand you pay me $10,000. REMEMBER, YOU GUYS SAY THE NUMBER OF HANDS DON'T MATTER. I just made a proposition to you, Alan and Belly. Now maybe you nin-com-poop assholes might start thinking about VARIANCE before you make a bet.
If you don't take the bet....YER YELLUH!!!!
Blackhole.
I don't get any alerts via Email from this site, or let me say, I don't know what Email I used, so no alerts get to me. I don't log in here often, especially since some people here just tell bold face outrageous lies and then create smoke screens to avoid having to back up their lies. There are too many other forums where I don't have to deal with that. So, I only log in when I'm alerted to something(like I was today by redietz) or I'm in a situation where I'm waiting to do something: Waiting at the airport, at the DMV, at the Doctors office, waiting for my food to come, etc. I wasnt even going to open your PM, I just assumed it was somthing negitive, I even found out you couldn't tell if I opend it or notHowever, I did actually log in and read your PM(I'm not sure what day that was, but yes, it was well within the time frame you were here in Vegas)
I didn't respond right away because I wanted to think about what I had going on at the time. But, more importantly, I wanted to think about the risks VS rewards and how convenient it would be for me. You haven't been a fan of mine or AP in general. I will go so far as to say, you have been kinda nasty at times. I didn't want to say yes, then have something come up or I change my mind, just to have to claim I flaked out.
Someone more friendly than you would probably understand if something came up, but I have a feeling you wouldn't care what the reason was, you would just cry foul. In the past, I have had things come up that prevented me from making a meetup, so sent someone who's on my team in my place. I wouldn't put someone else in that situation with YOU, especially given your derision for AP(s). I doubt sending someone in my place would have been satisfactory to you anyway.
I don't think you are all bad, you have had some civil conversations. I think you have been skeptical, but that's mainly because it's hard to know fact from fiction when it comes to AP when you are not one yourself. There are so many out there who love to fluff everything up by 10x, so I can see why you want to call BS on most evryone.
I really wanted to sleep on it before I responded and discussed the possibility of meeting you. A friendly reply either way would have been proper etiquette, but TBH, at some point, I just forgot about it altogether and that's simply why I didn't reply. It was not really a priority of mine, especially since I had family coming town and other stuff going on. I have a hard enough time meeting up with everyone, people that are actually friendly to me, people who I believe have nothing but good intentions, people whom I get the sense they like me. I had another AP here for the WSOP, someone who I actually wanted to meet up with, unfortunately, I didn't get around to meeting up with them either.
It seems like your main goal is to discredit AP(s) or learn something valuable.
So, I was wondering to myself why you would want to meet up with me, and what would the point be for me to meet up with you. Was it so I can convince you AP was real? Why should I make such an effort to do that? I am not trying to get on radio shows, promote anything, sell anything or get your verification. Even if I were trying to convince you for some odd reason, how would I do that? Would I bring a big wad of cash? Would I bring you a bunch of W2G's? Bank statements, win loss statements, property deeds, pink slips, etc? Am I going to have to sit down with you and then win money? Would I have to show you Advantage plays, if so, what kind, would you want some secret information? I'm not going give people information just to prove anything(especially something good that would actually convince them).
I'm not shy(*note to AM) and I can handle myself just fine in confrontational situations, but I'm not going to go out of my way to engage in that sort of stuff when there is nothing to gain and perhaps something to lose.
The fact is, I have met and done business with more than enough people who know, I am, and whatever I say is real.
I'm not claiming some magic system like some others are. I only claim casinos make mistakes on machine pay tables, Bonus slots, progressives, programming, promotions, tables games, sports, marketing, etc. When I find a mistake that I like I do whatever I need to do to take advantage of it, when it's gone I move on to the next advantage play. Sometimes the advantages are significant and sometimes they are minor. Sometimes there are more things than you have time for and sometimes there's not much of interest going on.
Some people make a killing from AP (Like Don Johnson ) and some people struggle(like the guys playing nothing but Full pay DW .25) and then there's everything in between.
I'm sorry you feel slighted and ignored, I should have made an effort to respond to your PM. You are not the only one I havent responded to for one reason or another, ussully I just forget and the PM gets pushed out of sight, hell, I have well over 100 PM's I haven't even checked on WOV. I am not totally against the possibility of meeting up with you at some point.
Who said the number of hands don't matter?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
All of the discussion has been about one million hands.
Now you start talking about betting on one hand, where did that come from?
Wow, this is a totally pleasant and reasonable post, a breath of fresh air.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The power of positive thinking, good karma, do unto others, and all that.
A rising tide lifts all boats, thanks to AW I'm turning over a new leaf...no more harsh words from me.
mickey, if you're gonna come apart at the seams over this, at least TRY not to look so dumb.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmDid I include multi-plays? NOPE!!! Rob, you are so stupid but think you are smart. Sure, whether it's one hand or 1 million hands the ER is the same. But I wasn't talking about ER. I was talking about VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. You, Alan, and fatbelly are nitwits. VARIANCE, ask your favorite mathematician. You idiots think VARIANCE doesn't have anything to do with it. You imbecile's never even heard of VARIANCE until I mentioned it. You numskulls don't know anything about VARIANCE, start a thread on WoV about VARIANCE. See what answers you get about VARIANCE.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerLet's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars :) where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!
So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.
Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.
Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!
If you don't think VARIANCE plays a roll then let's do this. Lay me 100 to 1 on just one hand of 7/5 Bonus Poker. If I lose the hand I will pay you $100. If I'm at breakeven or ahead after the hand you pay me $10,000. REMEMBER, YOU GUYS SAY THE NUMBER OF HANDS DON'T MATTER. I just made a proposition to you, Alan and Belly. Now maybe you nin-com-poop assholes might start thinking about VARIANCE before you make a bet.
If you don't take the bet....YER YELLUH!!!!
You did not state a thing about the multi-plays just as you said nothing about single-play and in fact, now you're whining that coach had more smarts than you and actually made the bet doable by introducing 100-play. So now all you're doing with your dance is showing how you never had the money or the balls to back up your bravado YET AGAIN!
He wants to send me some info? Then he can start by posting proof of accolades here as well as proof of his identity. Anybody can come on and spew this and that, then say they're the man. And all he's doing with the copyright bs is ducking doing anything because surely, the person he claims he is has non-copyright successes too. And there's nothing on the internet??Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
C'mon man.....
I also read axel's effort. Aside from posting a litany of reasons why he may or may not want to meet up with a similarly anonymous personality, he was very clear that there's not an AP on earth who has, can, or has a method of proving anything they claim about themselves. But to agitate matters, don't dare ask any of them to IDENTIFY any of these "secret AP-only plays" to help prove their point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerHe wants to send me some info? Then he can start by posting proof of accolades here as well as proof of his identity. Anybody can come on and spew this and that, then say they're the man. And all he's doing with the copyright bs is ducking doing anything because surely, the person he claims he is has non-copyright successes too. And there's nothing on the internet??Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
C'mon man.....
I have had a couple go-arounds with blackhole and others just like him on this very topic of challenging AP's. It always comes down to someone wanting "proof". That is asinine. That tells me the person doesn't not only understand the concept of anonymous message boards, but most certainly has no clue of an AP. I mean what? We are supposed to show tax papers, bank statements, the deed to our house....for what to satisfy some goofball on an internet forum?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am an AP. An AP of the simplist methods actually, blackjack card counting. I support myself 100% from blackjack and a few other supplemental AP activities, but mostly just simple card counting. I am in my 14th year of doing so. I haven't gotten rich, but make a comfortable living and own (outright) my home in suburban Las Vegas. Anyone can believe me or not believe me....that is your choice. But there is no benefit for me to prove anything to someone who doesn't. Believe what you like....believe the earth is flat. That's ok with me. :cool: The thing I like to say during these conversations of credibility is that "It doesn't take all that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Anyone who can't distingue between the two, probably doesn't want to.
I haven't met Axelwolf. Unlike him, I don't actually meet many AP's....two, to date (excluding the two I am related to and live in my home). As a card counter AP, not looking to team up with anyone from the forums (I have my own small team), there is little benefit and more risk to message board meetups for me. I do know Axel from a couple different forums (and at times don't like him very much as he can be a dick), but I can assure you he is the real deal as far as an AP. I am sure that doesn't carry much weight coming from me. Few know me here. I have posted a half dozen times and not in over a year. (There is a reason for that....:rolleyes:).
I don't care if people choose to believe me or not. It has no bearing on me, my life or my livelihood. I don't care if people choose to believe Axel, or Mickey or RS, but these are legit AP's who don't have to prove anything. Their word is golden. It goes back to what I said earlier: "It doesn't take all that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Anyone who hasn't figured it out with these guys and maybe some others on the site as I don't read often, just doesn't want to figure it out. There is no proof that would satisfy them anyway.
That's all. I am done. Maybe I'll be back in a year. :cool:
Redietz; suppose there are forum members who don't want you to have their name or address?
Also, there are ways under the copyrights that you could still show your name/credits attached to various publications.
Mickey has said it. He's afraid of the variance. End of story.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI don't think that's true. According to The Wizard, Dancer, Grochowski and everything else I've read the EV is the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I think you need to ask this over at WOV. I'm not a member there anymore so I can't ask it. I would love to see what that braintrust has to say.
However, if you will just say you're afraid of the volatility (and not the EV) of Coach on a 100-line game, we can put this to rest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWow, this is a totally pleasant and reasonable post, a breath of fresh air.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The power of positive thinking, good karma, do unto others, and all that.
A rising tide lifts all boats, thanks to AW I'm turning over a new leaf...no more harsh words from me.
Say it ain't so Coach!!!
[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;49904]Alan, fear has nothing to do with it. Ask any AP if he would lay 100 to 1 against a 1 in 40 shot. All of them will say no. I wouldn't even lay 39 to 1 against a 1 in 40 shot. The advantage in that situation starts at 38 to 1. But I would never give belly that close of a gamble.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonMickey has said it. He's afraid of the variance. End of story.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
[QUOTE=kewlJ;49902]But I thought you liked dick(s)? :cool: :cool::cool::cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Oh come on. You're afraid of losing. Man up.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAlan, fear has nothing to do with it. Ask any AP if he would lay 100 to 1 against a 1 in 40 shot. All of them will say no. I wouldn't even lay 39 to 1 against a 1 in 40 shot. The advantage in that situation starts at 38 to 1. But I would never give belly that close of a gamble.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;49915]Alan, you haven't accepted my proposition on playing one hand of 7/5 bonus poker. Oh come on. You're afraid of losing. Man up.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Rob's developed a fear of packages since arci sent his taxes to Alan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerHe wants to send me some info? Then he can start by posting proof of accolades here as well as proof of his identity. Anybody can come on and spew this and that, then say they're the man. And all he's doing with the copyright bs is ducking doing anything because surely, the person he claims he is has non-copyright successes too. And there's nothing on the internet??Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
C'mon man.....
Rob, exactly what is your claim to fame? Copyrighted Gaming Today articles and some photos of video poker jackpots that demonstrate less than me posting copies of sports book tickets. You see, I could post account summaries showing a hundred thousand or more in profit from a single sports book, or I could post screen shots of massive winning Las Vegas tickets, but do they demonstrate overall success? Of course not, because I could have gotten clobbered at half a dozen other sports books.
You know, kind of like the dude who posts jackpot photos but could have gotten clobbered overall playing video poker.
And how about you give us a list of casino industry folks or other video poker players who recognize Rob Singer's brilliance? Or maybe a dozen of those students of yours who have followed in your video poker success footsteps? Or, failing that, maybe two people not in your family who can vouch for your storage locker? Or maybe a family pet who says your math works?
Credibility is a bitch, Rob. If you require it of others, you really should have some yourself.
I'm more than happy to meet anyone and hand a PR package to them. I'm not recruiting clients. I'm not recruiting friends. If Dan Druff has a copy of my stuff, that solves it for me. If my plane goes down tomorrow, Rob's claims of my being an identity thief can be debunked. An identity thief? Really? For danish and a coffee, anyone can rent my life for a day. It is not easy, but I wouldn't have it any other way.
I went 2000 posts without mentioning any of what I do, but Rob went on some bizarro attack spiel and acted like he was an authority on everything. He's no authority. You have contacts, Alan. Go try to find anyone in the casino business who will vouch for Rob's expertise.
redietz, trying to deflect the issue only makes your bs claims look weaker. Everyone already had a big laugh over you're "PR Package" :) So now here's your chance to explain how somebody with a pr pkg. has absolutely no exposure in pictures or name on the internet.
psst......you see how few words it takes to make you and your claims look even MORE stupid?
Rob, did you miss the www.playbook.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys mention? That's a shame. You know, if that mention was on the internet, and you didn't find it, odds are there just may be other ones out there. Evidently you're not much of a detective. That's okay. If you ask nicely, I'll send along the packet, and you can track down the other stuff that may be online.
Now, about all those folks in the casino industry and video poker community who'll vouch for your expertise....
Or those students of yours who are making a killing....
Or your storage locker....
Or your math experts....
Divert and deflect red---that's all you've ever done. Cause you're as phony as the collection of queers, atheists and transgender libtard freaks over on WoV.
Sling just contacted me and told me he's really Larry Bird. He said to trust him--just read his stats.
How did you determine that the odds of being ahead after one million hands on a 100-play 98% game is 1 in 40 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
[QUOTE=AxelWolf;49914]WoW! A new site (for me) that I don't participate on often and there may be some that don't know me and you couldn't wait to announce that I am gay. What the hell is wrong with you? Are you that small of a person? While I respect you as an AP and have learned some useful things from you, YES, you can be and often are....a real dick!Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJBut I thought you liked dick(s)? :cool: :cool::cool::cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
For those that don't know me....it seems to very important to Axel that you all know my sexual preference...so yes I am a gay man. That in no way defines me. I am never the one that brings it up and I hope it is as irrelevant to you and any discussions we may have as it is to me.
[QUOTE=kewlJ;49930]It's much better than being glum. (I think that line is from 1960 or thereabouts)Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfWoW! A new site (for me) that I don't participate on often and there may be some that don't know me and you couldn't wait to announce that I am gay. What the hell is wrong with you? Are you that small of a person? While I respect you as an AP and have learned some useful things from you, YES, you can be and often are....a real dick!Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
For those that don't know me....it seems to very important to Axel that you all know my sexual preference...so yes I am a gay man. That in no way defines me. I am never the one that brings it up and I hope it is as irrelevant to you and any discussions we may have as it is to me.
The quoting feature here is a bit screwy. It seems to reassign quotes and words to the wrong people. :confused:
The 60's was just a bit (2 decades) before my time. I did recently watch that Tom Hank's documentary on CNN of the 60's.
JFK, Martin Luther King, The Beatles, Woodstock. I didn't see anything about "glum". ;)
I said this to redietz in a personal email and I will say it here publicly: I do not doubt who redietz is. I also don't care about Rob Singer's personal attacks.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
My suggestion is to ignore Rob's personal attacks. He's attack me enough, hasn't he?
I can't understand why redietz cares about what Rob says?
Now, with that all said, it would be very simple for redietz to take a couple of photos of his name attached to any of the documents he'd like to show without violating any copyrights. There are also, by the way, fair use rules under the copyright laws. And if redietz has his name printed out somewhere as a winner or author, no one is going to come after him for putting a photo of that byline or credit.
Having said that, should redietz go through the trouble? I say no. I fully believe what he has said, but what's more important is what information he AND EVERYONE ELSE shares.
This goes for Rob Singer and Mickey and everyone else. It's the info you have to share that makes your value to the forum and this group. It's not your titles, your past accomplishments or the price tag on the motor vehicle you drive.
And for the record, I am driving my Mercedes C240 which I purchased in January 2003 and now has about 304,000 miles. My goal is to drive it at least 312,000 miles because that's when I get a "long time award" from Mercedes (it's 150,000 km).
Agreed. After 4+ years, I enjoyed about as many tidbits of info: the drawing of a lone 10 in a razgu hand for a royal, the win $100/lose$100 artt at 1,2 and 5 credits on $5 machine at bp, Alan's descending win goals, and a couple of possible variations of the single play strategy. The rest has been bashing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI said this to redietz in a personal email and I will say it here publicly: I do not doubt who redietz is. I also don't care about Rob Singer's personal attacks.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
My suggestion is to ignore Rob's personal attacks. He's attack me enough, hasn't he?
I can't understand why redietz cares about what Rob says?
Now, with that all said, it would be very simple for redietz to take a couple of photos of his name attached to any of the documents he'd like to show without violating any copyrights. There are also, by the way, fair use rules under the copyright laws. And if redietz has his name printed out somewhere as a winner or author, no one is going to come after him for putting a photo of that byline or credit.
Having said that, should redietz go through the trouble? I say no. I fully believe what he has said, but what's more important is what information he AND EVERYONE ELSE shares.
This goes for Rob Singer and Mickey and everyone else. It's the info you have to share that makes your value to the forum and this group. It's not your titles, your past accomplishments or the price tag on the motor vehicle you drive.
And for the record, I am driving my Mercedes C240 which I purchased in January 2003 and now has about 304,000 miles. My goal is to drive it at least 312,000 miles because that's when I get a "long time award" from Mercedes (it's 150,000 km).
150,000 km is not 312,000 miles.
redietz needs to step up to the plate and provide proof of accolades, mainly because he criticizes others who have and as an anonymous poster, the accolades he claims needs to be tied to an absolute identity. Instead, he's done nothing but lie, stonewall, dodge, divert & deflect. Those are the actions of a person who's bsing forum folk. If he wasn't such a weasel he'd either admit to doing that, or come clean. And enuf with the phony "copyright" nonsense and that stupid "PR packet". Nothing but baloney and everyone knows it.
[QUOTE=kewlJ;49930]Now how hard was it to figure out that you're someone with a chemical imbalance upstairs that made you make a bad choice? You came out of WoV for God's sake! And please don't tell us you speak with one of those lithps and try to make your points using a sickening designer delivery.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfWoW! A new site (for me) that I don't participate on often and there may be some that don't know me and you couldn't wait to announce that I am gay. What the hell is wrong with you? Are you that small of a person? While I respect you as an AP and have learned some useful things from you, YES, you can be and often are....a real dick!Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
For those that don't know me....it seems to very important to Axel that you all know my sexual preference...so yes I am a gay man. That in no way defines me. I am never the one that brings it up and I hope it is as irrelevant to you and any discussions we may have as it is to me.
Gee, I'm just going off the Mercedes website.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer