That's not what I've read around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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That's not what I've read around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thanks, Dan! Coming from a gambler (or whatever you call yourself) that's the quintessential compliment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Who's been saying any different, as far as straight-up plays?Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's not what I've read around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You might be thinking of posts where people are talking about mail at multiple casinos while multi-carding or the entire scope of Advantage Play in general.
I really don't have enough knowledge about Vultures play nowadays, so I can only go on what seems to be the case and what I have noticed happening. I see more and more games coming out and more being added.
I.E. A guy with very little starting out, fast forward to a year later and they now have a fair bankroll.
Vultureing seems to be much, much better nowadays and it's available 24/7, open to everyone, low variance(you can choose your own variance), low heat, and it's likely to stay around awhile.
Some things are better nowadays and some things are worse. It's hard to say if Advantage Play was better in 1999 or if it's better in 2024.
It's not even possible to know all the plays that were/are available.
I can say this, there's little chance that 80% of the guys making money nowadays would've survived or made anywhere near what they have been if you compare 1999 - 2009 to 2014-2024.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfWho's been saying any different, as far as straight-up plays?Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's not what I've read around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You might be thinking of posts where people are talking about mail at multiple casinos while multi-carding or the entire scope of Advantage Play in general.
I really don't have enough knowledge about Vultures play nowadays, so I can only go on what seems to be the case and what I have noticed happening. I see more and more games coming out and more being added.
I.E. A guy with very little starting out, fast forward to a year later and they now have a fair bankroll.
Vultureing seems to be much, much better nowadays and it's available 24/7, open to everyone, low variance(you can choose your own variance), low heat, and it's likely to stay around awhile.
Some things are better nowadays and some things are worse. It's hard to say if Advantage Play was better in 1999 or if it's better in 2024.
It's not even possible to know all the plays that were/are available.
I can say this, there's little chance that 80% of the guys making money nowadays would've survived or made anywhere near what they have been if you compare 1999 - 2009 to 2014-2024.
Here’s something to get you scouting again. You may know what I’m about to say knowing your reach.
There’s a particular game mechanic failure involving what I call a graphic glitch. The machines first hit the floor in 2019. I personally discovered it by accident in 2020 right out of the pandemic just observing a particular AP game. I later discovered this particular defect is prevalent in a few different games. Basically during a bonus game and prior to a bonus game on some games the prizes you can pick are predetermined, (meaning the position of each prize) however I can pick with 100 percent certainty the best possible outcome on certain games. On others I can determine if the machine is in a advantageous state based on a slight variation in the displayed graphics with 1100 percent certainly.
It’s worth enough for me to criss cross the country on short notice if certain HL machines are in this particular state. I’m only mentioning it because I literally think I may be one of very few who know of it. Maybe the only one ? Who knows but as I’m not in a position to travel for the foreseeable future I figured I would put it out in the wild.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's not what I've read around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The biggest edges are found beating casino accounting not wasting your day picking up fives from 7 blues
I knew a guy in the late 90s who would run the same three spot keno ticket overnight at a gas station he worked but was only charged once for the ticket. He eventually got arrested for theft.
You did...didn't you?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Maybe vulturing is not considered a straight-up play?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
What are you saying below, that there's more money to be made currently, than 1999-2009?
Or maybe you mean that 80% of today's APs could not have figured out how to make as much money back then?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I don't know what this phrase means.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
That's Mr. Leroy, Mr. Alan Leroy. Ha.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVMaybe YOU should "put up or shut up," Mr. "I discovered a winning play but I'm not sure I'll share it with you..."Quote:
Originally Posted by unowme
The worm wiggled from everyday blackjack (mindless casino game) player, KJ, who "lives for the math", to Singer in his Mission Impossible side-job, to sports giant, non-anonymous Red as friends with imaginary academics, and, even managed to embroil legendary Crimm, and owner/administrator/moderator Druff, along the way, all while trolling every one who tried to steer him in the right direction, who absolutely still have the right, and obligation, to do exactly this.
But, I guess, these final flickering displays of nutjobbery should be treasured, hey, hey. I imagine that by the time old, Leroy, himself, returns, even VCT may be but a vanishing memory. As in Voluntary Counselling and Testing.Quote:
Good morning, Mr. Leroy. Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to each receive a private message in the next 24 hours with a description of what I found. I only ask that you not reveal it publicly and if you happen upon it sometime in the future, you report back here that it worked for you. As always, should you or any member of your IM Force be caught or killed, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.
What credentials? The nice thing about math is that it's either right or it is wrong, regardless of who the math comes from.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
Not very and not many, in that order. If you see a Progressive Keno game and are relatively experienced with doing Keno math, then it should take no more than a few hours to figure out a relatively complicated game. Straight progressives can be done in under a minute using the WoO Keno Calculator. The most difficult Keno game that I ever analyzed took probably ten hours.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
With that, as long as they aren't switching out the games every week, you should generally have the plays you figure out available to you for some length of time. Most of Crimm's Video Keno plays last for several years, if not longer.
No. Even the rules of mathematics, itself, are still undefined. In specific, it can be thus shown that the sum of the positive integers is -1/12, which, in physics parlance, means something like the sum of all quantum paths is -1/12. But, sure, the math has particular ways of working out, and, then, who's to decide?
What the Wizard ought to have done, long before any aspirations to spout off about gambling math, was participate at a professional math forum. At which point he would have, imminently, eminently realized the folly of what he was about to put the second half of his life into. However, at least, like each and every one of the other gambling authors, except notably a very few gamblers such as Barry Greenstein, who had both computer science, and raw poker, ability, the Wizard did mostly avoid any actual casino gambling. Except for a relatively large loss by trying to form a successful blackjack team.
As for the behind-the-scenes stuff, I usually take the black-box approach, which is to look for exactly who's doing what, what record of, and the like, and, then, the between-the-lines fallout of that stuff. And, the "can't lose" professional KJ, Seedvalue, and AW -like characters, who got in the way of that stuff, on line, if it truly existed. There's just no doubt that the gambling scene, itself, turned out to be one thus pathetic joke, after another. Malformed discontented people trying to justify being a nuisance; let alone a legitimate, and lasting, benefit to others.
Careful Mission: 'Arguing with a fool shows that there are two.'
Yeah, jdog, enjoy that "excellent" Keno advantage from another nutjob. Ha.
The nuts gotta believe. Where your very own math led you.
This is not KJ's quote. Unowme said this in post #8 of this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
I am not even a math guy. But math is present and key to everything in life. The more you understand and know, the better off you will be. I wish I understood more.
If you did maybe youd understand how unlikely your more fabulous bullshit is.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThis is not KJ's quote. Unowme said this in post #8 of this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
I am not even a math guy. But math is present and key to everything in life. The more you understand and know, the better off you will be. I wish I understood more.
Vultures playing 7 blue gems in regal riches for $5 of ev on average is not where the money is.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyI don't know what this phrase means.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
In regards to back in the day plays I believe the best APs of today could have made money back then just as easy. I’m post 2004 as far as casino AP is concerned. Never stepped foot in a casino prior to the poker boom. So I can’t speak for the late 90s. But my mentor was beating casinos all through the 90s for large sums. So I would say the best will always be able to find something.
Like what? Give me an example of something I have claimed or said that really defies the math? Mdawg claimed he won 60 straight hands at blackjack which Wizard put the odds at 47 quadillion to 1 (which is apparently what comes after trillion). So tell me what I have ever said that defies math like this? Or many of Singer claims?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionIf you did maybe youd understand how unlikely your more fabulous bullshit is.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Just because you don't believe something.....don't want to believe something, doesn't make it a math defying claim. Math defying is Mdawgs 60 straight blackjack wins, or Alan's 18 y.o. in a row.
I did have an incident that I suspect was very long odds against. If you play enough you will see some strange things. the incident I am referring to I wrote about in 2011, calling it the perfect shoe. I didn't win every hand or round as the name might suggest, I lost a few hands early on (smaller bets), but once the count got positive to the point that I was betting my max bet, I didn't lose a hand or round. Out of about 30+ rounds (I can only approximate), I had 2 push situations, one a push and one a split where I won one/lost one. Every other hand was a win. I am guessing the math of that was some fairly long odds (certainly not 47 quadillion to 1), but long.
But I would like to hear what you think I have said that defied the math and odds.
What UNKewlJ doesn't get is that the jig is up...and that the sum of all his improbable lying stories have added up to the knowing, knowing that he has been lying all along. About everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Additionally, "selective memory" comes into play on some math defying claims. It may very well be unintentional. A person claiming 15 wins in a row may simply not remember an uneventful loss mixed in. I think this happens more than people think. And I think it very likely with Alan's claim.
I can't swear it didn't occur with my "perfect shoe" scenario. I was playing heads up at that point and winning so much money, I barely had time to pull it in. Certainly, didn't have time to stack chips as I normally do. Could there have been a loss mixed in? I can't swear there wasn't. It really wasn't what I was focused on. Despite winning (good), my big concern at the time, at least when I really got into it was the attention I was drawing (bad) and any consequences from that.
But of course, Mdawg is Rainman. Total recall (or so he claims). so selective memory wasn't a possibility with his 60 straight win bullshit claim. Most of us don't have the luxuary of being Rainman. ;)
Mdawg just like AccountinQuestion, you have nothing I have ever said that defies the math, nor even has been proven false, with the exception of a couple things that I have admitted due to protecting myself and information. You trollingly (my own word) have a list of 20 or so things you choose not to believe, but not a single thing is proven. It is simply an act of trolling, which I admit you are a master at. You are a master at it because "mDawg" isn't your first go around on these forums or at trolling. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgWhat UNKewlJ doesn't get is that the jig is up...and that the sum of all his improbable lying stories have added up to the knowing, knowing that he has been lying all along. About everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Now I want to address this smurgerburger quote, that you repeatedly quote. Smurgerburger, like a few others seems particularly or "extra" hurt because he initially believed me and then saw me lie about something to protect myself and now seems extra hurt. Well guess what? There is a reason why he, a usual reasonable and smart guy believed me. Because everything I claimed or said is exactly how things work. Ever heard that first instincts are usually the right instincts? I am sorry if he and a few others feel betrayed because I needed to lie about something to protect myself.
I have no doubt about almost everything people like mickeycrimm or axelwolf say or claim. Not everything, but probably better than 99%. If I caught or strongly suspected they lied about something and had reason to, I wouldn't then dismiss everything they have said or claimed. :rolleyes: I believe there is an old saying about that. Something about "throwing out the baby with the bathwater".
But people are free to think whatever they want. Really, it changes nothing for me, who I am, what I do.
The sheer volume of forum post you have made across multiple websites defies Math. There Just isn’t enough time left in a day for you to actually be in a casino to make money.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJLike what? Give me an example of something I have claimed or said that really defies the math? Mdawg claimed he won 60 straight hands at blackjack which Wizard put the odds at 47 quadillion to 1 (which is apparently what comes after trillion). So tell me what I have ever said that defies math like this? Or many of Singer claims?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionIf you did maybe youd understand how unlikely your more fabulous bullshit is.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Just because you don't believe something.....don't want to believe something, doesn't make it a math defying claim. Math defying is Mdawgs 60 straight blackjack wins, or Alan's 18 y.o. in a row.
I did have an incident that I suspect was very long odds against. If you play enough you will see some strange things. the incident I am referring to I wrote about in 2011, calling it the perfect shoe. I didn't win every hand or round as the name might suggest, I lost a few hands early on (smaller bets), but once the count got positive to the point that I was betting my max bet, I didn't lose a hand or round. Out of about 30+ rounds (I can only approximate), I had 2 push situations, one a push and one a split where I won one/lost one. Every other hand was a win. I am guessing the math of that was some fairly long odds (certainly not 47 quadillion to 1), but long.
But I would like to hear what you think I have said that defied the math and odds.
Another maxim as applied to UNKewLyingJ, is that...the more he says something like "it changes nothing for me" the more apparent it is that he's desperate to try to establish that he's not lying.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
This really isn't so. There is a case to be made that if someone wanted to, they could almost figure out when I play, based on when I post. :rolleyes: Posting on forums is what I have done for entertainment for many years. My brother and current BF are big gamers and spend 6-8 hours a night playing video games. I watch sports and post on forums.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
And in the past couple years as the time I have played the local circuit, weekdays diminished due to database and heat reasons and concerns, I have posted even more, during the day, (like now).
There is a case to be made, online forum has been very detrimental to me and several AP friends and acquaintances make that case frequently. But there is plenty of time, if that is what someone chooses to do.
Mdawg, YOU have an agenda. As part of that agenda you lie about not just me but everyone that publicly states they don't believe you and the great Mdawg adventure tale. There is a list of people at that true passages forum that you started entire threads about making up lies, including axelwolf, myself and other known APs. And you have done so here an at GF as well. If someone, anyone says they don't believe you, or challenges anything you say, you make up lies about them, often preposterous lies.
And then you privately message others on the forum that are receptive to your game to repeat those lies and attacks. People you have privately messaged have TOLD me that you have done this. And Dan Druff caught you doing so. :rolleyes:
All because of whatever this stupid story telling agenda of yours is about?
It isn't personal with me. At least didn't start out that way until some of you guys make it personal with years of attacks and attempts to discredit. It is just that you gambling claims just aren't real. They aren't the way things work. You say casinos doesn't care about winning players. That is just not true. No pit or table game supervisor is allowing a player to spread $1-50 ($100-$5000) at double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning $60,000. And patting them on the back and telling them "well done". These people would be out of a job the next day. And this type of shit is what you have claimed for 5 years now!
Yes, players can beat blackjack by card counting and other advantage plays. But they have to work at it. And most of that work involves figuring out how to play and still be allowed to play. Winning machine players or APs have eyes on them from surveillance only. And there are a lot of machine players in the casino so a machine AP has to do something that stands out to draw attention. Table game AP's have not only surveillance, but actual people monitoring right there at the game in the form of pit and even dealers, who will inform.
What you are claiming is just NOT the way it works. And the answer you have when real players that know how things work say that is to attack them with completely made up lies and shit.
What the fuck is the matter with you? :confused: Is telling this fantasy, THIS important to you? :confused:
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.
For example say you are beating a particular game in a casino and got backed off. Did they identify the method you were exploiting or did you just get sloppy ? If a team of say 10 guys was hitting the same play they would know instantly if the method was discovered or was it one sloppy individual. I’m speaking generally but you should understand what I mean.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueFor example say you are beating a particular game in a casino and got backed off. Did they identify the method you were exploiting or did you just get sloppy ? If a team of say 10 guys was hitting the same play they would know instantly if the method was discovered or was it one sloppy individual. I’m speaking generally but you should understand what I mean.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.
Here’s a real life example. Take that fat little candy bar eating dwarf from NYC Darkoz. You think this idiot could have survived all these years alone? Hell no the fact he uses a team of guys makes up for all his many flaws as a human. A perfect case study of a team being greater then an individual
Here's a breakdown of the Quick Cash video keno game. You can see a pic of the game below. Anyone is welcome to critique my layman's math:
There are 3 compartments to the game.
1. Main Game
2. Hit 4 Meter
3. Hit 5 Meter
Both meters start at zero.
In the pic I'm playing a 2-spot. There's a reason for that. I have a choice of playing anywhere from 2 numbers to 10 numbers for the same meter. The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers. Plus, it's very easy to capture all of the value with the 2-spot. The cycle in this game is 1551. If you play a 6-spot the odds of 6 out of 6 is 7753. So you won't capture that value on most plays. The 2-spot is the lowest variance.
You can see the bet is 75 cents. And the 2-spot pays $6.25. That's 8.3333 units. The chance of hitting a 2-spot is 16.63158. You can check this on the Wizard Of Odds Keno Calculator. But here's what the math looks like:
C(80,2) = 3160 total 2-spot combinations in an 80 ball tank.
C(20,2) = 190 combinations in which you will hit the 2-spot.
3160/190 = 16.63158
So the main game payack is:
8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.
Now for the meters. These are not conventional meters. A percentage of the wager is not going into these meters. For the Hit 4 meter when you catch 3 of the 5 Vault Bonus Picks it puts 1 unit into the Hit 4 meter.
When you catch 4 of the 5 Vault Bonus Picks you are awarded 10 units plus whatever money is in the Hit 4 meter.
The freq. of catching 3 of 5 is 11.93 (you can check these freqs. on Wizard of Odds). The freq. of catching 4 of 5 is 82.7
82.7/11.93 means you will average putting 6.93 units into the Hit 4 meter per 82.7 games. Adding in the extra 10 units means 16.93 units per 82.7 games.
16.93/82.7 = 20.4%
So between the Main Game and the Hit 4 meter the game is up to 70.5%.
Now for the Hit 5 meter. When you catch 3 of 5 it puts 2 units in the Hit 5 Meter.
2/11.93 = 16.7645%.
When you catch 4 of 5 it puts 3 units into the Hit 5 Meter.
3/82.7 = 3.6276%
16.7645% + 3.6276% = 20.39%.
Hit the 5 out of 5, (freq. is 1551 rounded) and you get the money in the Hit 5 meter.
So now we have:
Main Game 50.1%
Hit 4 Meter = 20.4%
Hit 5 Meter = 20.39%
So we have a 90.89% game.
I'll show my strategy next....
The link is to the video of the game:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1743987115283853635
How is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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You seem to be asking out of genuine curiosity, so I'll give my take:Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1derHow is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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It's not strictly better, but it reduces variance. For an extreme example of variance, if a game had a 10% house edge and zero variance, then you would just bet $1.00 and lose $0.10 every single play.
Variance is the reason why a gambler can play a negative expectation game, but sometimes, be ahead...often for long periods of time/many trials. For example, someone who hits the Mega Millions Jackpot is extremely unlikely to ever be a lifetime loser at playing the Mega Millions; this despite the fact that they might have bet into a hugely negative expectation.
If you're betting at a positive expectation, then you might be inclined to avoid variance for several reasons. One potential reason to want to minimize variance is limited bankroll; the reason for that is because Variance can result in stronger and longer-lasting swings. I don't believe that is why Crimm mentioned Keno here.
In the case of this Keno game, I think one would want to minimize Variance in order to get the proverbial, 'Long run,' faster, such that the actual return of a play is more likely to closely approximate the expected return, with fewer plays. As Crimm suggested in his post, if hitting six out of six is a relative long shot, but some of your expected return comes from hitting six out of six, then you endure more variance and may make the realization of your advantage take longer.
On the other hand, you could hit the six out of six on the very first play and rapidly exceed your expected value by virtue of doing so.
Either way, in the short-term, people playing a negative expectation game can be do so profitably because of variance. Similar to our slot machine where you can only bet $1.000 and lose $0.10 every time, if Crimm had a 5% edge with zero variance, then the only outcome of betting $1.00 would be a return of $1.05 of which $0.05 would be profit.
I just thought that Crimm must then have a Kelly criterion, or other, calculation, based on the different game-variances, to optimize the grow rate of his bankroll. Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.
Besides that, the distinction between the variances of the wins/losses, and bet sizes, of a game, versus, the variance of the sample size of thus outcomes. I remember that Jacobson pointed out, at WoV, something about variances not changing, strictly speaking, but, I hesitate to get into something like that here.
I have several questions about Crimm's post. We'll see what happens.
On the other hand, armed with a bit more information, I'm trying to clean up the notion of an element-0, in the period table of (chemical) elements. I let off, several years ago, with the notion that it amounts to the atomic components in isolation, in a absolute sense. As opposed to a collection of neutrons. Knowing the exact number of thus elements, specifically the number of rows of, makes it a lot easier to choose one notion over the other, in terms of how the matter, versus antimatter, thus tables "come together". And, to know which has to be cleaned up, or further developed a bit, to fit into what I'm trying to do.
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Complete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.
There comes a point that every player should dance to his own tune.
Slow and steady growth rate, and, hence, slow and steady increase in the amount bet. It's possible to thus pull ahead by constantly adjusting the amount bet, up, then, down, up, then, down, a lot, a lot, but, it's optimal to constantly do so only up a little bit at a time. (Unless working with stuff with no limit to the upside, such as with the stock market.)
Again, you fail to ask about things, but, instead fly off the handle in weird directions.
I flew off the handle in a weird direction? Where? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
This is part of the problem. I know this discussion is not about blackjack, but that is what I play so I will use some examples from blackjack. As you just stated, it is impractical to be resizing every round, session, which is what true Kelly calls for.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
Additionally the Kelly formula would have a player wager a different amount at every different true count and advantage. So true Kelly would have probably 10 or 12 (at least) different wager amounts. So, optimal BR growth would equal optimal heat. You can't win if you can't play. It is better longevity-wise, to have fewer or minimal amounts of jumps or wager increases which directly conflicts with Kelly.
Now to take it to the other extreme, optimal win rate would have a player bet absolute minimum in -Ev counts or situations and maximum wager at ANY +EV count or situation. That would produce the highest possible win rate, at the expense of extreme variance and additionally would be extreme heat. So you don't want to do that either.
What I do is find a compromise position, for all components, variance, win rate and cover or things that keep play more tolerance.
I used to have some of these discussions with Moses. There are things I do and choose to do that actually invite variance, in the name of win rate and longevity. Variance just is not the big deal everyone thinks, if you are properly funded and mentally prepared for the increased variance and swings. It is an exercise in focusing on long-term rather than short-term, as most players tend to do.
I'm talking about the optimal growth rate of bankroll, and, then, looking for a new acceptable range of different amounts to bet, versus the different chances of winning - overall. Think compound interest.
I don't give a shit about the day-to-day throes of casino blackjack or casino heat, or being able to (unnecessarily) withstand a lot of variance, or, anything else you might throw out there to try to "muddy the waters". Not even you can change the math by (idiotically) "living for it". Ha.
P.S. If some lawyer tells you that he's living the life, lives for the law, then run for hills.
I know what you are talking about, Garnabby. I just don't agree with the principal. You can't win if you can't play (heat and countermeasures) and then your optimal growth and compound interest are just something that occurs in theory (on paper) not in reality or actual play.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
BTW, I have lived some of the "you can't win if you can't play" over the past few years. :rolleyes:
Stanford Wong used to say that you could teach a monkey to count cards, but the trick was to figure out how to be able or welcome to continue to play.
Almost everything you do that makes your play more tolerable toward the goal of longevity, moves away from optimal play and optimal "growth" things like Kelly. These are compromises that have to be made.
Can't get slower or steadier than red to green action.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJComplete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.
Of course, as expected, UNKewlJ is trying to change his story now and claim that he bets bigger.
I am the one who has always said to go in and do what you can when you can.
I think that he's trying to claim, on the other hand, that he's supposed to still be betting red, to green, chips, without any appreciable growth. That if he starts with a higher base-unit, then he'll be thrown out. But, no, if you make money by counting cards, and the like, they throw you out, anyway. Hard way to make an easy living, except at the forums.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
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222
As I said earlier, you have your choice of how many spots you want to play from 2 to 10. They are all on the same meter. So when the game first came out, about 12 years ago, one of the things I had to determine was how many numbers to play.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1derHow is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It turned out that the 2-spot had the highest main game payback which I was very pleased with because it's the lowest variance. The 2-spot was 50.1%, the 3-spot was 49.95%. The 4-spot up thru the 10-spot all came in between 49% and 49.9%.
In this game you are fading a 29.5% drain until you hit the 5 of 5. Since I'm playing only 2 numbers the drain is consistent. I'm capturing all of the value of the main game in the short term instead of medium or long term.
So I determined that this particular Quick Cash game has a 90.89% overall payback. The game does have other bet levels with their own meters and the numbers are a little different.
I don't play anything at a disadvantage so let's find the breakeven point. The Hit Five Meter runs at 20.39%. BTW, most meters are like 1%, 2%, 4%. There were some bad pay 10's or Better video poker games in Tahoe years ago that had 10% meters. That's the highest I ever seen until I ran into this game.
90.89% is a 9.11% deficit. The frequency (cycle) of hitting 5 of 5 is 1551 rounded. It's a 75 cent bet. So....
1551 X .75 X .0911 = $106
As I stated earlier the Hit Five Meter starts at zero. So it's at breakeven or better when I find $106 or more in the meter. I don't play at breakeven. Not pulling the money out of my pocket is breakeven too.
I drew the line at 10% advantage.
1551 X .75 X .1 = $116. So I needed to find $222 or more in the meter. And when the game first came out I was finding a lot more than 10% advantage:
$338 is 20% advantage
$454 is 30% advantage
You can see in the pic I hung that that play was above 130%.
Finding $300, $400, $500 in the Hit Five meter was routine when the game first came out. Things started slowing down after about 6 months and it became just another game in my repertoire.
On turbo it played at 2400 GPM. The cycle was 1551. So an average 40 minute play.
10% advantage was worth $75 an hour.
20% was worth $150 an hour
30% was worth $225 an hour.
Quick Cash was on multi-game machines for several years. It got to where the game got no action from the rec players at all. They started pulling the game to make room for newer games on the machines. When it started it was on 1500 machines. There might be a dozen left today.
I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
If A is exceptionally very unlikely, and B is exceptionally very unlikely, and C is exceptionally very unlikely and you make a claim where all 3 have to be true well then you're full of shit all of the time. Call it the qualitative math. You don't get this.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJMdawg just like AccountinQuestion, you have nothing I have ever said that defies the math, nor even has been proven false, with the exception of a couple things that I have admitted due to protecting myself and information. You trollingly (my own word) have a list of 20 or so things you choose not to believe, but not a single thing is proven. It is simply an act of trolling, which I admit you are a master at. You are a master at it because "mDawg" isn't your first go around on these forums or at trolling. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
What UNKewlJ doesn't get is that the jig is up...and that the sum of all his improbable lying stories have added up to the knowing, knowing that he has been lying all along. About everything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Now I want to address this smurgerburger quote, that you repeatedly quote. Smurgerburger, like a few others seems particularly or "extra" hurt because he initially believed me and then saw me lie about something to protect myself and now seems extra hurt. Well guess what? There is a reason why he, a usual reasonable and smart guy believed me. Because everything I claimed or said is exactly how things work. Ever heard that first instincts are usually the right instincts? I am sorry if he and a few others feel betrayed because I needed to lie about something to protect myself.
I have no doubt about almost everything people like mickeycrimm or axelwolf say or claim. Not everything, but probably better than 99%. If I caught or strongly suspected they lied about something and had reason to, I wouldn't then dismiss everything they have said or claimed. :rolleyes: I believe there is an old saying about that. Something about "throwing out the baby with the bathwater".
But people are free to think whatever they want. Really, it changes nothing for me, who I am, what I do.
I don't think smurgerburger is upset because he believed you. He probably respects you more as a forum character simply because of your consistency and ability to pull this off for years. You act like he feels betrayed by you. It is more of respect for your bullshit more than anything. A sort of "well played". Anyhow, that is how I read the quote.
Others - I find Kewl fascinating because no one really knows to what degree he believes himself. Mental illness can be fascinating. Like to me it is 100% clear in my head when I am bullshitting but it is possible people get so wrapped up in their nonsense and their way of life that they believe themselves. Just as it was important to start up the lie - it is just as important to keep it going. Along the way this is what happens.
Kewl - Maybe I will spend some time looking through various media outlets to see if i can find where you were backroomed and assaulted. Does that make you nervous?
Finished reading this thread. It seems that when Kewl is put on the spot yet again by people other than Mdawg and Singer he really goes hard with the teachable moments.
This depends on how the play is constructed, where the value in the play comes from ( for example does it come from mail or a promotion that can be shut down ) , how much time does I take to run, what’s your opportunity cost per hour. There are many scenarios where reducing variance is absolutely the best course of action. I’m not talking about the obvious like bankroll size.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJComplete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.
There comes a point that every player should dance to his own tune.
I have one currently.
Play A takes me roughly 1.5 hours with a guaranteed loss of X but returns me roughly 7x over a certain time.
Play A can also be run over a 6 to 8 hour period avoiding taxables with a loss roughly half of X ( even possible to win but it’s still negative EV off the top ) still returns roughly 7x over time
The second method has increased Heat and the chance of getting thrown out is higher. It also takes around 4x times as long.
With limited hours in a day and help / team members its best to utilize the first method. Team
Members can go do more work instead of sitting on this play for one entire day to squeeze out some theoretical EV
Advantage play in the casino environment often has many factors that are not math related. Putting down a play is more nuanced and every play is different. Nothing is played in a vacuum
How rich would you be if you actually cared about money ? How many of your family members could you help ? So sharpQuote:
Originally Posted by Mission146You seem to be asking out of genuine curiosity, so I'll give my take:Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1derHow is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
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Nov 2023
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It's not strictly better, but it reduces variance. For an extreme example of variance, if a game had a 10% house edge and zero variance, then you would just bet $1.00 and lose $0.10 every single play.
Variance is the reason why a gambler can play a negative expectation game, but sometimes, be ahead...often for long periods of time/many trials. For example, someone who hits the Mega Millions Jackpot is extremely unlikely to ever be a lifetime loser at playing the Mega Millions; this despite the fact that they might have bet into a hugely negative expectation.
If you're betting at a positive expectation, then you might be inclined to avoid variance for several reasons. One potential reason to want to minimize variance is limited bankroll; the reason for that is because Variance can result in stronger and longer-lasting swings. I don't believe that is why Crimm mentioned Keno here.
In the case of this Keno game, I think one would want to minimize Variance in order to get the proverbial, 'Long run,' faster, such that the actual return of a play is more likely to closely approximate the expected return, with fewer plays. As Crimm suggested in his post, if hitting six out of six is a relative long shot, but some of your expected return comes from hitting six out of six, then you endure more variance and may make the realization of your advantage take longer.
On the other hand, you could hit the six out of six on the very first play and rapidly exceed your expected value by virtue of doing so.
Either way, in the short-term, people playing a negative expectation game can be do so profitably because of variance. Similar to our slot machine where you can only bet $1.000 and lose $0.10 every time, if Crimm had a 5% edge with zero variance, then the only outcome of betting $1.00 would be a return of $1.05 of which $0.05 would be profit.
SV, when you're not talking about your dick, you say some very reasonable stuff...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdog
Kind of hard not to talk about this heavy hitter when I wake up with it everyday
O I got the Pm
I’m not discussing public no one seemed interested but you. Maybe one day
Fair enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
You'll average missing the 2-spot 15.63158 games out of 16.63158 games. You'll average hitting the 2-spot once every 16.63158 games....which pays 8.3333 for 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1derI'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
I didn't use Kelly criterion because I was way over bankrolled. Like at least 100X Kelly. My gig was how much expectation could I find and play off in a 4 or five hour working day. In my case it was about $500 a day for years.
When you are working the big edges that I described in this keno play there is just no fluctuation in bankroll when you are spinning off 4 or five plays a day. The earn is consistent to the point that it's rare to have a losing day. But I WAS limited on the amount of money I could make. You can't raise or lower your bet on a video keno play. You have to stick to the same bet size until the play is complete. I just payed attention to hourly rate.
That's nice of you to say. I honestly have no idea; it's tough to imagine a hypothetical where I have ambition, drive and am at all greed motivated. My family members are fine; there's really only my mom (who is retired in relative comfort), my sister (who's fine-mostly courtesy of my mom) and my kids who will be fine. Any other family I have I either don't know or don't care about at all. The ones who I did care about to an appreciable degree are all dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
Mission, you don't think that Tasha's textbook schizoid, but, Seedvalue's textbook schizo? To me, sure looks like the textbook thus progression.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146That's nice of you to say. I honestly have no idea; it's tough to imagine a hypothetical where I have ambition, drive and am at all greed motivated. My family members are fine; there's really only my mom (who is retired in relative comfort), my sister (who's fine-mostly courtesy of my mom) and my kids who will be fine. Any other family I have I either don't know or don't care about at all. The ones who I did care about to an appreciable degree are all dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
P.S. I mean, say, from living in a fantasy world, to, actually believing it.
I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.
Do you think he's made a lot of his team members "rich" as he likes to claim?
And that cock of his...do you think he really rivals Mr. Ed in that department as he'd have us believe?
Or...wait for it...could it be, dare I say it, "fantasy?"
Or perhaps an insidious form of "mental illness?"
I don't know if it rises to the level of mental illness, but it is most definitely insecurity, MrV. When people are on forums telling you they have made tens of millions gambling (advantage play) they are full of shit. They are telling a fantasy story.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
People and players can win money by doing something where the math flips the long-term outcome to their side. But advantage players that do this for any period of time have to work to be able to keep doing it. It is an almost daily battle with the casinos.
When I started sharing my journey, including the money involved and the battles involved (variance/heat/backoffs), it was because there were people on the blackjack forums, I was on at the time, including the MIT guys that were painting a very unrealistic picture of winning, winning winning, almost like the casinos are handing out buckets of money. Like that is the business they are in. So I shared for many years what kind of money could be made and what was involved with doing so, as a card counter. The ups and down. The losing periods. The heat and backoffs, and last year the back-rooming.
Now yes, I know there is a lot more to advantage play than my narrow, little arena of card counting. Some players doing incredible things. New things everyday. Most things I don't understand. But I refuse to believe that so many people are just making buckets of money, hundred of thousands a week, millions of dollars a year. That is just not reality. The casino industry works way too hard, utilizing the latest technology to be sure that doesn't happen at the levels these people are claiming.
There has always been two paths to advantage play. 1) milking or sheering. Focus on longevity. You play limits and a style that is somewhat tolerated. And you learn what is tolerated. And you learn and play the cat and mouse game. Not really tricking or hiding, just finding a comfort level that is tolerated for at least a while. 2) Slaughter. Burn and slash. You get as much as you can for as long as you can (shorter and shorter durations).
But these guys today want us to believe they get that top amount on an ongoing basis. That no one cares. The casinos are fine with it. That is just not reality. It is in fact fantasy, and every one of these kinds of claims from Mdawg, to Singer, to "others" are just that.... fantasy. Some of these people might be making some money, but they are not doing the fantasy nonsense they claim, making millions yearly, making many others rich. ect.
And as soon as one of these guys starts talking about how big their dick is, come on. That is as big a tell as anyone who labels themselves the best or the GOAT. Insecurity at its peak.
That is mostly what these forums are insecure dude, making up fantasy because they are dissatisfied with something about their life and how it nhas played out. And as soon as someone injects a dose of reality, or math into the equation, they are the bad guy.
Well, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.
Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.
Stfu and go on Druff's show.
Stop all the goddam typing.
I could probably type something at random, and then it would still come out to something in the solver. Ha.
akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl
What the fuck did I, just, tell you? Ha.
---> People That Are Going to Hell.Quote:
akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl
https://anagram-solver.net/%20akljfg...0?partial=true
https://youtu.be/d5oOnQYKU88
Your forte? Accusations without examples or quotes. You should go into politics. You've heard of Tricky Dick. You could be Babblin' Bobby.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzWell, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.
Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.
Everything I have said regarding what I’ve made is a fact. I have more then 20 million and have made many people multiple millions. I can’t take it with me we all die we all get sick. What I’ve made for others is more important to me then my score. I’ve paid the price for my score. Something we all eventually will face. I have 22 and 24 year old guys with mid 6 figure bankrolls all ready. I’m proud I’ve helped them. Shared my knowledge and hopefully they continue on.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI don't know if it rises to the level of mental illness, but it is most definitely insecurity, MrV. When people are on forums telling you they have made tens of millions gambling (advantage play) they are full of shit. They are telling a fantasy story.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
People and players can win money by doing something where the math flips the long-term outcome to their side. But advantage players that do this for any period of time have to work to be able to keep doing it. It is an almost daily battle with the casinos.
When I started sharing my journey, including the money involved and the battles involved (variance/heat/backoffs), it was because there were people on the blackjack forums, I was on at the time, including the MIT guys that were painting a very unrealistic picture of winning, winning winning, almost like the casinos are handing out buckets of money. Like that is the business they are in. So I shared for many years what kind of money could be made and what was involved with doing so, as a card counter. The ups and down. The losing periods. The heat and backoffs, and last year the back-rooming.
Now yes, I know there is a lot more to advantage play than my narrow, little arena of card counting. Some players doing incredible things. New things everyday. Most things I don't understand. But I refuse to believe that so many people are just making buckets of money, hundred of thousands a week, millions of dollars a year. That is just not reality. The casino industry works way too hard, utilizing the latest technology to be sure that doesn't happen at the levels these people are claiming.
There has always been two paths to advantage play. 1) milking or sheering. Focus on longevity. You play limits and a style that is somewhat tolerated. And you learn what is tolerated. And you learn and play the cat and mouse game. Not really tricking or hiding, just finding a comfort level that is tolerated for at least a while. 2) Slaughter. Burn and slash. You get as much as you can for as long as you can (shorter and shorter durations).
But these guys today want us to believe they get that top amount on an ongoing basis. That no one cares. The casinos are fine with it. That is just not reality. It is in fact fantasy, and every one of these kinds of claims from Mdawg, to Singer, to "others" are just that.... fantasy. Some of these people might be making some money, but they are not doing the fantasy nonsense they claim, making millions yearly, making many others rich. ect.
And as soon as one of these guys starts talking about how big their dick is, come on. That is as big a tell as anyone who labels themselves the best or the GOAT. Insecurity at its peak.
That is mostly what these forums are insecure dude, making up fantasy because they are dissatisfied with something about their life and how it nhas played out. And as soon as someone injects a dose of reality, or math into the equation, they are the bad guy.
What really matters is this. We all expire some sooner then others. How we are remembered by the ones closest to us is all that matters. Did you impact those close to you, did you change their life trajectory. I’ve done all I could to do this for my family. That’s all that matters to me
You take me humor as insecurities. I’m far from insecure in fact being confident in my opinion is paramount for success. Believe what you want.
Red, Rob Axel the older guys on this board i would trade all my cash if I could guarantee I could see that many years. In one second
Believe what you want it makes no difference
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
I got mad respect for your knowledge bro. Other then that one thing with the con. You sometimes slip in dark sentences in your writing about death or not caring about shit. I know you don’t believe in God and that’s cool everyone has their beliefs. Live life for your family they care they are the reason. Sometimes when I would read your stuff it seemed like you were depressed. Idk maybe I’m wrong anyway just saying you helped many wiry your writing even tho I wished at times you stfu.
O and I’ve never recruited from these boards you literally are the only person I’ve ever offered anything to. I like to recruit and build my own. No bad habits to deal with that way. Teams make millions in this game in my opinion. Time is the problem we all need to deal with teams help solve that problem. Idk l
I don’t like you because your a rat not because you’re arrogant. People at the top of their game are arrogant.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzWell, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.
Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.
I won’t die a rat tho unlike you.
Regarding my claims or what I’ve done it’s known by the ones who matter and my score will help my grandchildren. Something you don’t have right ?
Maybe you do idk it don’t matter
I played online poker for years inside I don’t like sitting inside. I like to travel If I wanted to sit inside all day betting sports looking at the four walls of my room I would. I’m also not interested in betting sports like you. I had to many things I liked to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueI don’t like you because your a rat not because you’re arrogant. People at the top of their game are arrogant.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzWell, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.
Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.
I won’t die a rat tho unlike you.
Regarding my claims or what I’ve done it’s known by the ones who matter and my score will help my grandchildren. Something you don’t have right ?
Maybe you do idk it don’t matter
*yawn*
Is this attention seeking fool done tooting his own horn yet?
Gee, this guy now tries to portray himself as a loving, down home family man?
Get the fuck out of here.
By report you swing, fuck whomever, and traipse across the country all the time, doing AP.
Meanwhile..."Where's daddy?"
Some fucking "family man" bwa ha ha ha.
On my fathers life I have.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
You don’t believe in God or I would say that.
It’s the thing I’m most proud of in my life. Helping them become successful
OK, let's assume you have enriched the lives of a crew...I question it, but assume it is so: assume you are a highly successful AP.
Now I don't know much about that sort of thing but it cannot be easy, and must consume a lot of time.
You say you travel across the country to exploit an opportunity: this all takes a lot of time, time away from home.
Your mantra: "Live life for your family they care they are the reason."
Your family...how can you be a father or a loving husband if you are GONE most of the time, whether in casinos, traveling to casinos, swinging, whatever...time away from hearth and home?
Sounds hypocritical, i.e. "Do what I say, not what I do."
Dude, you seem to have built your life on sand.
My Dad died of cancerQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
You beat cancer right ? Good for you
My kids are in their mid 20s they graduated college, and have made more then you most likely already. Not that it matters the Money but they to help others, and don’t do the shit you think is so great. Their set
Their mom the strongest person I’ve ever met in my life was my savior.
You will out live me but i suspect my life was more fun. Considering you were a lawyer.
Dan have if you could delete my account I would appreciate it.
Sorry about your dad.
So, your kids were your crew?
How in hell can a woman be any man's "savior?"
I will answerQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I never missed a sporting contest a birthday or event in my children's life. Remember when they were young I played online poker.
When I traveled my family came with me, my wife never had to work I wanted her to be able to be at home
With the kids as mush as she wanted, but I was always present never missed one thing. Once I made enough money to give her the option to be a stay at home mom she said ok. Most women want that but they are with dead beat guys who can’t provide. She also became very successful in her own right starting a small online business with her expertise.
I’ve always approached Advantage gambling as a team sport. Poker was a 1v1 game. When I pivoted to all advantage gambling I just wanted to build wealth with others. I was brought in on a team recruited
( probably for my bankroll at the time ) by a team. I like working with other high functioning goal oriented people. Not compulsive problem gamblers ( the majority of APs )
My family always came first always
However it should be
Health
Family
Faith ( for you weed )
Work
Without taking care of your health you won’t be there for your family in the long run. So yes V you can manage everything if you surround yourself with a good team of people.
How could my kids be my crew lol ? I’ve been gambling most of my life before they were even born. If you are asking how they made so much money, I obviously taught them things when they asked. Not however before they finished a degree in something they wanted to learn. Because money is just the score not a life. Your envy over my big cock clouds your judgment. I think by me mentioning that it makes your mind wonder. My cock size has nothing to do with my gambling life. Or how much time I’ve spent with my kids.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Thanks for the laugh V needed one lol
I’ve also asked for my account to be deleted because none of you are in my real life and don’t matter one bit. Maybe you can use those lawyer skills to get Dan to do that. I don’t care or need attention you mistake me for Kew. It doesn’t matter what anyone here believe or does. Mostly I know you guys post for fun anyway. Something to pass the timeQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
The thing that I don't get is why does anyone who doesn't present conclusive proof, worry so much about being just believed on an anonymous internet forum? People who come, and go, some of them not coming back, but, neither having any real, in theory, or, actual, in practice, short or long -term effects on the others.
But, most of them practically beg to be just believed. And, as far as I'm concerned, "Hell, just believe, or not, of me whatever you want, or need to." Since when did it become a matter of anything more?
So, I have to conclude that the ones who talk about it, want, or need, to be just believed are, in actuality, liars.
my savior because she’s my True sole mateQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Something only Straight men lucky enough to find it will understand
I’ve asked to delete my account I don’t care really buddy. Believe what you want Kew will keep you entertained for however long he has left on this earth that’s a fact.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
My life experience has no impact on your life. I’ve never wanted to teach the masses like MC or mission. Just wanted to keep my circle small and keep my head down.
But, there's nothing bad about having a bit of fun without having to ask that accounts be deleted. It's not an either/or deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueEverything I have said regarding what I’ve made is a fact. I have more then 20 million and have made many people multiple millions. I can’t take it with me we all die we all get sick. What I’ve made for others is more important to me then my score. I’ve paid the price for my score. Something we all eventually will face. I have 22 and 24 year old guys with mid 6 figure bankrolls all ready. I’m proud I’ve helped them. Shared my knowledge and hopefully they continue on.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI don't know if it rises to the level of mental illness, but it is most definitely insecurity, MrV. When people are on forums telling you they have made tens of millions gambling (advantage play) they are full of shit. They are telling a fantasy story.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
People and players can win money by doing something where the math flips the long-term outcome to their side. But advantage players that do this for any period of time have to work to be able to keep doing it. It is an almost daily battle with the casinos.
When I started sharing my journey, including the money involved and the battles involved (variance/heat/backoffs), it was because there were people on the blackjack forums, I was on at the time, including the MIT guys that were painting a very unrealistic picture of winning, winning winning, almost like the casinos are handing out buckets of money. Like that is the business they are in. So I shared for many years what kind of money could be made and what was involved with doing so, as a card counter. The ups and down. The losing periods. The heat and backoffs, and last year the back-rooming.
Now yes, I know there is a lot more to advantage play than my narrow, little arena of card counting. Some players doing incredible things. New things everyday. Most things I don't understand. But I refuse to believe that so many people are just making buckets of money, hundred of thousands a week, millions of dollars a year. That is just not reality. The casino industry works way too hard, utilizing the latest technology to be sure that doesn't happen at the levels these people are claiming.
There has always been two paths to advantage play. 1) milking or sheering. Focus on longevity. You play limits and a style that is somewhat tolerated. And you learn what is tolerated. And you learn and play the cat and mouse game. Not really tricking or hiding, just finding a comfort level that is tolerated for at least a while. 2) Slaughter. Burn and slash. You get as much as you can for as long as you can (shorter and shorter durations).
But these guys today want us to believe they get that top amount on an ongoing basis. That no one cares. The casinos are fine with it. That is just not reality. It is in fact fantasy, and every one of these kinds of claims from Mdawg, to Singer, to "others" are just that.... fantasy. Some of these people might be making some money, but they are not doing the fantasy nonsense they claim, making millions yearly, making many others rich. ect.
And as soon as one of these guys starts talking about how big their dick is, come on. That is as big a tell as anyone who labels themselves the best or the GOAT. Insecurity at its peak.
That is mostly what these forums are insecure dude, making up fantasy because they are dissatisfied with something about their life and how it nhas played out. And as soon as someone injects a dose of reality, or math into the equation, they are the bad guy.
What really matters is this. We all expire some sooner then others. How we are remembered by the ones closest to us is all that matters. Did you impact those close to you, did you change their life trajectory. I’ve done all I could to do this for my family. That’s all that matters to me
You take me humor as insecurities. I’m far from insecure in fact being confident in my opinion is paramount for success. Believe what you want.
Red, Rob Axel the older guys on this board i would trade all my cash if I could guarantee I could see that many years. In one second
Believe what you want it makes no difference
One last thing Kew, this is the last time I will respond to you.
I only made an effort to find you because of your insistence I was toll. No need to rehash it, but
I NEVER WILL DOX YOU period
What I have made is possible and i suspect there are many more people out here that have made millions we just don’t know about them. IMO it’s impossible to do alone.
You over estimate the casinos ability and under estimate the ability of dedicated APs working together. I’ve never said the casinos let me do anything. I’ve been thrown out plenty. But I don’t quit we keep going and adapt. That’s the fun.
You will never make as much going solo in anything. Advantage play or regular business. Find your tribe
( if that’s a tribe of gay men you find in Vegas bathroom stalls )
Then train them up and level up
Anyone good luck buddy
If you won't dox kewl fuck it I will. Hopefully Dan isn't up late and you guys get to see who you have been talking to for years.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueQuote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueEverything I have said regarding what I’ve made is a fact. I have more then 20 million and have made many people multiple millions. I can’t take it with me we all die we all get sick. What I’ve made for others is more important to me then my score. I’ve paid the price for my score. Something we all eventually will face. I have 22 and 24 year old guys with mid 6 figure bankrolls all ready. I’m proud I’ve helped them. Shared my knowledge and hopefully they continue on.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
What really matters is this. We all expire some sooner then others. How we are remembered by the ones closest to us is all that matters. Did you impact those close to you, did you change their life trajectory. I’ve done all I could to do this for my family. That’s all that matters to me
You take me humor as insecurities. I’m far from insecure in fact being confident in my opinion is paramount for success. Believe what you want.
Red, Rob Axel the older guys on this board i would trade all my cash if I could guarantee I could see that many years. In one second
Believe what you want it makes no difference
One last thing Kew, this is the last time I will respond to you.
I only made an effort to find you because of your insistence I was toll. No need to rehash it, but
I NEVER WILL DOX YOU period
What I have made is possible and i suspect there are many more people out here that have made millions we just don’t know about them. IMO it’s impossible to do alone.
You over estimate the casinos ability and under estimate the ability of dedicated APs working together. I’ve never said the casinos let me do anything. I’ve been thrown out plenty. But I don’t quit we keep going and adapt. That’s the fun.
You will never make as much going solo in anything. Advantage play or regular business. Find your tribe
( if that’s a tribe of gay men you find in Vegas bathroom stalls )
Then train them up and level up
Anyone good luck buddy
https://i.ibb.co/4NRx4v3/kewlj.png