Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This retard is a closeted homosexual.
100%.....Ive heard of guys stalking women before, but never dude on dude like this sand homoQuote:
Originally Posted by jdaewoo
The biggest reason I don't think redietz ever did well at sports betting is that he mocks the concept of EV.
If you don't use EV, then how do you know when to not bet?
Just bet your single best pick every week? Top 2? Do you just go off a hunch?
There are also reasons why Redietz seems to mock the idea of people being kicked off books or readily limited. Maybe it is because he is betting all over the place and his action is never seen as that sharp?
Which would be fine if that was part of your strategy and not just an unintentional side effect of place a decent amount of bets expected to lose.
All his records are for these contests where EV is not particularly relevant. You gotta make your best pick each week even if it isn't +EV. Then from that you start to see yourself as a real sports bettor because you're competing with mopes and not professional organizations.
#truth
I hate to reveal it again and again ..
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I don't "mock" the concept of EV.
I mock people who substitute "EV" for "my personal opinion is" or "my personal opinion of what the EV might be."
I think EV estimations are essential for all random probability exercises and calculations.
I think "EV" estimates (outside of bonus analyses, middles shooting, and arbitrage analyses) in sports betting are an overly grandiose exercise in self-love and Leonardo Da APing. People make the classic fundamental error of justifying wagering on non-random events by importing random probability concepts and treating them as if they were/are applicable.
There is really no justification for labeling ballpark personal estimates with the "EV" tag. Just say, "I think this" or "I think that." The edges in sports betting are small enough that importing these personal opinions and labeling them as some kind of actual math are either excuses to gamble or excuses to boost one's alleged expertise. Labeling personal opinions of non-random events as "EV" makes people feel better about what they're doing.
I have spelled this out a dozen times on this forum, but these Fred Flintstone gamble-holics keep saying I don't "believe in 'EV'" or something. It's all a pushback because I am telling them that, outside of arbritrage, middles-shooting, and bonus exploitation, you have no way of even ballparking "EV" for sporting events.
Opinion = Hunch
“Hunches are for two dogs fucking.” Amarillo Slim
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
And that's what people are guilty of when trying to fit "EV" into an opinion hole.
By the way, I read Amarillo Slim's "Play Poker to Win" when I was, I believe, 12.
The word opinion doesn’t appear in Billy Walters’ book.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
And that's what people are guilty of when trying to fit "EV" into an opinion hole.
By the way, I read Amarillo Slim's "Play Poker to Win" when I was, I believe, 12.
Honestly, I think the EV disparaging retard literally doesn't know what EV means.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdaewoo
That's undoubtedly it. I've had ROI stats assigned to me by third parties since 1980, I have lunch with guys who taught college probability every week, and I (clears throat) was hired by Billy Walters, all of which preclude my "bein' able to cipher," as Jethro says on The Beverly Hillbillies.
Me and Jethro finished the third grade. Of course we got the EV cipherin' down pat. We just cogitate on it, and the cipherin' takes care of itself
You guys just love assigning math terms to your subjective estimates. Must be nice to go through life thinking your opinion foretells the future. Me and Jethro gotta try it sometime. The hell with actual cipherin'. Better to just have an opinion with a couple of cipherin' words thrown in.
Meanwhile, speaking of the title of this thread: I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, I won Week Four (albeit very little), I lost Week Five, I won Week Six, I won Week Seven, and my only future is trying its brains out, but isn't very good (TTech at 125 and 150-1 to win the whole shebang).
Such is life when you be doin' actual cipherin'. Right, Jethro?
Redietz do you actually know any sports bettors?
You mock anyone using EV in reference to sports betting. You can dress it up all you want. I've pointed out the wiki article on EV that shows the term EV is used in analagous situations to how sports bettors use it. It isn't just "us" on this forum by any stretch. The "Leonardo Da'APs" (god could you be more proud of that little phrase? btw it isn't that clever and it jst shows your bitterness and jealousy.)Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I don't "mock" the concept of EV.
I mock people who substitute "EV" for "my personal opinion is" or "my personal opinion of what the EV might be."
I think EV estimations are essential for all random probability exercises and calculations.
I think "EV" estimates (outside of bonus analyses, middles shooting, and arbitrage analyses) in sports betting are an overly grandiose exercise in self-love and Leonardo Da APing. People make the classic fundamental error of justifying wagering on non-random events by importing random probability concepts and treating them as if they were/are applicable.
There is really no justification for labeling ballpark personal estimates with the "EV" tag. Just say, "I think this" or "I think that." The edges in sports betting are small enough that importing these personal opinions and labeling them as some kind of actual math are either excuses to gamble or excuses to boost one's alleged expertise. Labeling personal opinions of non-random events as "EV" makes people feel better about what they're doing.
I have spelled this out a dozen times on this forum, but these Fred Flintstone gamble-holics keep saying I don't "believe in 'EV'" or something. It's all a pushback because I am telling them that, outside of arbritrage, middles-shooting, and bonus exploitation, you have no way of even ballparking "EV" for sporting events.
How do you know when not to bet? Of course you won't answer but .. Is it ok calling something +EV or -EV? Or is it only that you can label soemthing +EV ?( when it is bet worthy?) I guess it is assigning a specific percentage to it is where you have such an issue.
He seems to not even really understand himself. Is his problem that people assign specific EV values or is it that people use the word EV? He seems to sorta go back and forth.
Of course people can readily ballpark EV values but we've been over this.
This retard doesn't know actual sports bettors nor does know what EV is.
Case closed.
I'll stop harassing him but I'd encourage you guys to keep him straight.
[QUOTE=redietz;202404]Sounds great, how much was your profit?Quote:
Originally Posted by jdaewoo
[QUOTE=AxelWolf;202410]He won man!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzSounds great, how much was your profit?Quote:
Originally Posted by jdaewoo
Sounds great, how much was your profit?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
(reposted to avoid confusion of who was quoted)
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerHe won man!Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
---> NeverEverNoSanity.Quote:
Every one's a winner on VCT.
https://anagram-solver.net/every%20o....?partial=true
Quote:
A new computer worm that attacks bulletin board services spread silently and quickly around the Internet Tuesday, infecting at least 38,000 systems within a few hours, experts said. The worm does not attack home computers, but consumers might encounter its effects. Bulletin boards that are infected will show a simple text message: "This site is defaced!!! This site is defaced!!! NeverEverNoSanity."
The worm only attacks widely used message board software called PHP Bulletin Board. Other than displaying the text message, it does nothing malicious to infected computers, according to antivirus firm Kaspersky Labs. Because it spread rather quickly Tuesday morning, F-Secure Corp. issued an alert about Santy.
Even Mrv, who thought he was wrong, by losing $70,000, turned out to be right by a dazzling display of self control. Ha.Quote:
Within 24 hours of its release on 20 December 2004, about 30,000 to 40,000 websites were attacked by Santy. The worm holds a record of spreading worldwide within three hours of its release. It caused writable files (of formats such as .php and .html) on the infected servers to display the message "This site is defaced!!! This site is defaced!!! NeverEverNoSanity WebWorm generation X", where X is a number representing the generation of the worm.
There have been variants of the worm, some that use alternative search engines after Google blocked queries from the Santy worm, and an anti-Santy anti-worm that attempts to patch vulnerable installations
The phpBB Group had released a patch for the vulnerability a month before the attacks, in phpBB 2.0.11.
Come on, V, there is a Santy Claus.
https://youtu.be/oN8n99BUO-A.Quote:
A "sanity clause" refers to the humorous concept from the Marx Brothers movie A Night at the Opera, where Groucho Marx attempts to explain a nonsensical business contract to Chico Marx, claiming there's a "sanity clause" within it, to which Chico famously replies, "You can't fool me, there ain't no sanity clause!". The phrase is also the title of a 1980 song by the band The Damned.
It is time to take a deeper dive into Bob Dietz's EV vs opinion and Leonardo DaAP statements. But before I do that I want to address Red's claims of having won 6 of the first 7 weeks (which is strange since there has only been 6 weeks of college football and 5 weeks of NFL football). :rolleyes:
So like most of you probably, I get both snail mail and email advertisements from services wanting to sell me sports picks. I am guessing I landed on those lists as a result of signing up at multiple sports books 2 years ago when I started my bonus sports betting play.
Now the wording on many of these advertisements is remarkably similar to redietz's claims. 6 out of 7 weeks winners....that kind of thing. THAT must be a tout thing. :D
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Ok, now the deeper dive into Reds EV vs opinion comments. The "change" in redietz occurred when several APs started doing things at an advantage involving sports betting. Axelwolf was the first AP to talk about some of what he was doing, although there was probably others doing things that didn't mention it. And frankly it was Axelwolf that peaked my interest. In particular a statement to the effect that "almost anyone could make 50k playing the sports betting bonus hustle without even that much effort".
So frankly Dietz's Leonardo daAP statements were directed mostly at Axelwolf and myself. I think it was me that really put Dietz over the top.
So we have gotten these strange EV statements about EV being opinion during that same time period. Now I don't know what all every other AP is doing involving sports betting, but for those of us like myself that are making our money off of the bonus play (bonus whoring), the expected value couldn't be clearer. It is just as crystal clear as the expected value from my blackjack play. It is a mathematical formula, and pretty easy to figure the EV. The bonus money less whatever you churn through hitting the rollover is the EV. And you can figure that out and see what it should be before you even start.
So for me, who I believe is the target of all this "Leonardo daAP" nonsense, and what I am doing, there is ZERO opinion involved. The EV is a mathematical formula. So like most things with this bitter tout, it is very disingenuous for him to keep repeating this bizarre goofiness.
Now, if you want some opinion, Deitz, I will offer some opinion. :cool:
I don't know what Bob Deitz has or hasn't made involving sports betting (including his tout business) over his lifetime. I defer to Kim Lee's expertise (based on having seen many of the publications Dietz has used to cherry pick contest results), where Kim Lee concluded: Dietz maybe broke even betting sports or made a small amount of money, if he had someone basically supporting him. Unfortunately for Mr Dietz, THAT isn't the story he has wanted and tried to tell for the last 10 years that I have been on this forum.
And speaking of opinion, let me go here: :p Dietz claims he has started receiving social security in the past several years. Unless he worked other jobs for parts of all those years he claims to have been a professional sports bettor, he wouldn't have paid into social security so wouldn't be eligible to collect on his own. BUT he would be eligible for 1/2 the amount his late wife had earned. :rolleyes: So I am guessing she is STILL supporting him 20 years after her passing. :cool:
Feel better now, KJ? That you got all of that off your chest, again, for the thousandth time, to people you'll never know.
One of the things that triggered Red was when I said anyone with an avrage (or even below)intelligence, along with dedication, can make a living via sports betting without years of experience, and they don't even need to know anything about the sports they are betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
.
I didn't say handicrapping, I said sports betting.
In the interest of full discosure my Canadian cousin, the $70K figure is my LIFETIME loss amount: I've kept detailed records since the last century.Quote:
Originally Posted by Garnabby
I never thought I was "wrong" for losing that amount: I play negative expectation games and i realized long ago that "You have to pay to play."
Gambling is my main "vice" now, having given up both alcohol and tobacco, two "sins" I would have spent more than $70K on had I not quit cold turkey.
There is this strange pissing, dick measuring mentality on this and other forums, that what other players do, make, claim, somehow effects or diminishes what you have accomplished. I don't subscribe to that in any way, as 90% of advantage players that dedicate themselves to full-time advantage play, do better than I do financially. I still do pretty elementary stuff and mid level stakes where I can achieve some longevity.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
BUT Redietz, like many here DO subscribe to that mentality, and that is why Dietz has gotten so bent out of shape about some advantage players doing some things to make money in the world of sports betting. Whatever he has accomplished, including I guess being a successful tout (business) :rolleyes: for many years is in no way diminished because some APs are finding some opportunities in sports betting.
I guess it all boils down to insecurity about what you do and have done. Come to think of it, so much shit on these forums comes down to people's insecurities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
And this Mdawg fella and his obsessive responses, usually having nothing to do with what is being discussed (hijacking) are the perfect example. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
LOL...yeah right.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Isn't your main grievance around here the gambling claims of others (MDawg & Singer)?
Aren't you all bent out of shape because you think that their claims somehow diminishes what you have accomplished?
You've made dozens of posts to that effect over the years...it's one of your 10x multipliers.
Doesn't that all boil down to your insecurity?
Absolutely NOT! IF Mdawg, Singer, or any other person that comes along telling bullshit stories, had actually won what they claimed, I would be happy for them, same as I am for EVERY legitimate advantage player that wins more than I do.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
What I object to with these people is that their claims are not true, CANNOT be true, because they defy the Math, the way the industry works and reality.
And as a real advantage player that works hard at what I do, finding things to play at an advantage and everything that goes along with that, like figuring ways to be allowed to keep playing, I am offended by these bullshit stories.
If you want to be a recreational gambler, playing -EV games and losing longterm, then own it like MrV does. There is nothing wrong with that. People spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on various hobbies.
And if you are a long-time losing player and don't want to be, but want to win (longterm), then do that. Learn to play some things at an advantage. It isn't hard.
BUT don't piss on our legs and tell us it is raining.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThere is this strange pissing, dick measuring mentality on this and other forums, that what other players do, make, claim, somehow effects or diminishes what you have accomplished. I don't subscribe to that in any way, as 90% of advantage players that dedicate themselves to full-time advantage play, do better than I do financially. I still do pretty elementary stuff and mid level stakes where I can achieve some longevity.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
BUT Redietz, like many here DO subscribe to that mentality, and that is why Dietz has gotten so bent out of shape about some advantage players doing some things to make money in the world of sports betting. Whatever he has accomplished, including I guess being a successful tout (business) :rolleyes: for many years is in no way diminished because some APs are finding some opportunities in sports betting.
I guess it all boils down to insecurity about what you do and have done. Come to think of it, so much shit on these forums comes down to people's insecurities.
LOL. Nothing alleged "APs" do diminishes me. It can (and does) affect me when you have unskilled maroons launching multiple accounts at sites strictly to bonus whore under multiple names, which by the way is an egregious terms-of-service breach these days and can result in all your money being absconded.
Anonymous allegeds with no verifiable track records ATS and no transparent history of winning or losing are largely irrelevant to me except for the fact they sponge up bonuses, thereby resulting in reduced or restricted bonusing for normal folks. Or inflated juice. So yeah, the classic "AP" sports vulturing, hurts everyone, including me and mine.
And did I mention almost all of what kewlJ describes vis-a-vis bonus exploitation has been tagged with legal language rendering it high risk? In other words, at risk of seizure. As I'm sure kewlJ can verify, Munchkin has been reporting for about a year on sports books, even "legal" ones, holding people's funds due to alleged abuse of terms of service.
My only gripe with what the "APs" report on sites like this is that it's essentially unverifiable fairy tale stuff. No third party tracking. All just, "Trust me, I'm an AP" narratives by anonymous dweebs.
Dweebs don't bother me...except for (1) they affect my bonuses and juice, which they do and (2) when they tell tall tales of winning in perpetuity, when what they rely on are others' accounts, and (3) when they are so fucking stupid that they go around advertising some ATS angle as if they've discovered something brilliant, when literally 500,000 people know about it and the odds are now AGAINST you because adjustments have been made.
As for Axelwolf, he loves the whole "I can make more money than you" bullshit. Yes he can, especially if he rents his derriere out to visiting Saudi luminaries. What Axelwolf has been doing has obviously been done by people with more money than him on a larger scale for 30-some years, or before Windows existed as an operating system.
I would not want to be Axelwolf for an hour, much less a day.
Who are you referring to using multiple accounts and name and setting up accounts in names of friends and family? I hope not me, because I have not yet that. I say "yet" because i might someday. It is part of the play. If sportsbooks can confiscate our money, then we can use multiple accounts.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
This is correct. That risk of seizure or bonuses taken back after the fact IS part of the cost of this play. I don't like it, but that is the way it works, just the same as backoffs and 86ings are part of blackjack advantage play.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
This nonsense with 3rd party tracking is NOT how anonymous forums work. What has been proven by anyone on this forum? People share experiences and you are free to believe them or not. As near as I can tell, 3rd party tracking is only a tool of sports betting "touts" who use that 3rd party tracking which can and is manipulated (you can pay for a better record) to rope in new suckers to sell to.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Well most of us here aren't selling anything Dietz.
So your grievance is with their claims.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
You feel that their claims diminish your accomplishments, but that's only in your eyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
There is no relationship between their claims and your accomplishments...none.
It's all in your screwed-up head, a manifestation of your insecurity.
It doesn't diminish what I have I do and have accomplished. It is just insulting as an advantage player.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellySo your grievance is with their claims.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
You feel that their claims diminish what you do, but that's only in your eyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
1. Bonus whores don't give a fuck that to stupid to do it himself redietz don't like what they are doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThere is this strange pissing, dick measuring mentality on this and other forums, that what other players do, make, claim, somehow effects or diminishes what you have accomplished. I don't subscribe to that in any way, as 90% of advantage players that dedicate themselves to full-time advantage play, do better than I do financially. I still do pretty elementary stuff and mid level stakes where I can achieve some longevity.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
BUT Redietz, like many here DO subscribe to that mentality, and that is why Dietz has gotten so bent out of shape about some advantage players doing some things to make money in the world of sports betting. Whatever he has accomplished, including I guess being a successful tout (business) :rolleyes: for many years is in no way diminished because some APs are finding some opportunities in sports betting.
I guess it all boils down to insecurity about what you do and have done. Come to think of it, so much shit on these forums comes down to people's insecurities.
LOL. Nothing alleged "APs" do diminishes me. It can (and does) affect me when you have unskilled maroons launching multiple accounts at sites strictly to bonus whore under multiple names, which by the way is an egregious terms-of-service breach these days and can result in all your money being absconded.
Anonymous allegeds with no verifiable track records ATS and no transparent history of winning or losing are largely irrelevant to me except for the fact they sponge up bonuses, thereby resulting in reduced or restricted bonusing for normal folks. Or inflated juice. So yeah, the classic "AP" sports vulturing, hurts everyone, including me and mine.
And did I mention almost all of what kewlJ describes vis-a-vis bonus exploitation has been tagged with legal language rendering it high risk? In other words, at risk of seizure. As I'm sure kewlJ can verify, Munchkin has been reporting for about a year on sports books, even "legal" ones, holding people's funds due to alleged abuse of terms of service.
My only gripe with what the "APs" report on sites like this is that it's essentially unverifiable fairy tale stuff. No third party tracking. All just, "Trust me, I'm an AP" narratives by anonymous dweebs.
Dweebs don't bother me...except for (1) they affect my bonuses and juice, which they do and (2) when they tell tall tales of winning in perpetuity, when what they rely on are others' accounts, and (3) when they are so fucking stupid that they go around advertising some ATS angle as if they've discovered something brilliant, when literally 500,000 people know about it and the odds are now AGAINST you because adjustments have been made.
As for Axelwolf, he loves the whole "I can make more money than you" bullshit. Yes he can, especially if he rents his derriere out to visiting Saudi luminaries. What Axelwolf has been doing has obviously been done by people with more money than him on a larger scale for 30-some years, or before Windows existed as an operating system.
I would not want to be Axelwolf for an hour, much less a day.
2. Who gives a fuck about a verifiable track record in contests? It's about one thing, money. Show me the money, fuck the public track record bullshit.
3. So they are going to confiscate "all of your money?" What dumbass would send "all of their money" to one site? How much of a percentage of bankroll does redietz think multi-accounters send to one site? Idiot.
4. Redietz income is not verifiable so must be a fairy tale.
5. In the same paragraph redietz says the AP's are telling tall tales about winning but also complains about them affecting "his juice." If they were losing they wouldn't be affecting his juice.
6. Axelwolf makes more money than redietz. Axelwolf is worth more money than redietz. It's pretty clear redietz doesn't have the capability to make much money. He's too afraid of his own shadow to do it.
7. On a recent VSIN episode Munchkin said he came out of retirement to multi account. He's fed the numbers from a computer model. His job is to get the action down. Munchkin would not have come out of retirement to multi account if it was not highly profitable. Redietz is just doing his typical name dropping and misrepresenting what Munchkin says and does.
8. Munchkin is not on the internet warning anyone about multi accounting or bonus whoring. It's a straight up Dietz lie. MUNCHKIN IS MULTI ACCOUNTING HIMSELF.
Quote:
My only gripe with what the "APs" report on sites like this is that it's essentially unverifiable fairy tale stuff. No third party tracking. All just, "Trust me, I'm an AP" narratives by anonymous dweebs.
It seems to always comes back to this obsession with people puffing themselves up. Rather reminiscent of KJ's obsession with exposing fraudulent gambling claims. Or certain religious figures railing against sexual perversity.
It's the same dynamic with religion: unverified claims of miracles etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Faith...belief without reason.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVIt's the same dynamic with religion: unverified claims of miracles etc. Faith...belief without reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
---> UniteD States of America V. JOnathan Thomas Skrmetti, Attorney General and Reporter for Tennessee, et al.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
https://anagram-solver.net/Myonlygri...s?partial=true
Oh, I don't know now. I got the country, that Redietz is a trained reporter for Tennessee, and, that you, V had something to do with the law. And I was a Thomas.
Be wary without the TOE. Ha. As mere mortals under the sanity of what Benny called a mass delusion.
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As in the problem for the solution, and, versa.
Pro gamblers are interested in making money, not people's opinions about gambling terminology, and some supposed old winning track record from some con magazine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-P2qL3qkzk
The best thing is who here has ever given any sort of numbers about winning? Monet maybe some Parlays or the occasional jackpot/VP hit.
Redietz sees it in everyone else that which is more guilty of. Namely, bragging about how successful you are. What are these records that he expects people to have?
We have Axel driving around an RV I believe. Singer claims he did so. Micky does similar in his car doing his thing. Mdawg isn't an AP but tells good stories. Singer wasn't an AP and unlikely had an RV but we'll throw him in the list for lols. No one is really ever talking that much about how much they made and if they do the sums are never particularly impressive. The actual impressive guys have no desire to talk about it.. (Contrast this to Redietz)
The problem is when others started talking about how they could/can beat sports betting with Redietz looses his shit because his whole identity is based around being some grizzled ol 'seen it all' sports-bettor and the APs are like lol heres how you grind sports and or promotions - next.
APs see it as a battle to win money. Casinos on one side, APs on other. Who cares about casinos. They'll gladly fuck up people all the time where they end up like Tasha without pulling enoguh from SS to have a roof over her head.
Redietz sees it as something else. Some moral highground. He is correct about the bonuses being abused and turned down so that is a valid gripe but no one really cares on our side.
Dennison needs an internet intervention IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whRxhNWWb8MQuote:
Originally Posted by Garnabby
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Any third-party verifications of reality seem anathema to you. Not surprised.
At its peak, there were literally more than a hundred services recorded and monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Since clients of the services often used multiple services, it was literally impossible to cheat reporting-wise. People knew what the records were. The other services would have known what you had or had not done. There were also things at the time called Consensus Services which subscribed to multiple, sometimes dozens of services, and packaged and sold the plays to consumers much more cheaply than the services themselves. Again, the consensus services' records for the services they sold matched the records in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"
Axel acts like he doesn't know any of this, which is shocking, because Boz knows all this stuff and Boz works with Axel.
In addition, it's pretty hard to fake ATS records when you are on newsstands in literally a thousand locations prior to games being played, as with all of the classic tipsheets such as Playbook (Lawrence), or The Gold Sheet (Olshan), or Gridiron Report (Malinsky). So the idea that I or anyone could fake a record in Playbook is absurd.
But I appreciate all of the alleged "APs" deciding, after blackjack has dried up, video poker has dried up, tax laws make both tournament poker and video poker money pits, that "APs" are now sports betting experts. Munchkin no longer plays blackjack in LV (which kewlJ seems to not mention much). Dancer plans to retire end-of-year due to tax laws. So now multi-accounting bonus-whoring sports is the ticket. Well, once upon a time, it may have been, but it won't be tomorrow. Sports books have cleaned up their legal language and are within their rights to seize your money if you do this stuff. Check Munchkin's videos for the latest.
Good luck with it, guys. Multi-account all you like. Exploit others' names for bonuses all you like. Then make YouTube videos explaining how the books "ripped you off after you made millions."
Being obsessed with money comes at a high price. Things you can't buy are more valuable than money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.
The money you pursue enslaves you. The more money a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyBeing obsessed with money comes at a high price. Things you can't buy are more valuable than money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.
The money you pursue enslaves you. The more money a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul.
Or your time. That has always been my emphasis.
Or your health. Captain Morgan, rumors to the contrary, is not your friend.
Axelwolf also makes the strange and somewhat absurd argument that anyone can do what he does, so that makes him special. Not sure what to make of that, other than he likes to see himself as some King Midas. If that's what flips his switch, he should just write a book and share the wealth all at once and for everybody. A lot of bizarre contradictions. Anyone can do what he does, so he's special. And he's so magnanimous, but he needs to keep it a secret, except when he doesn't because he's so magnanimous.
Strange dude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyBeing obsessed with money comes at a high price. Things you can't buy are more valuable than money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.
The money you pursue enslaves you. The more money a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul.
Or your time. That has always been my emphasis.
Or your health. Captain Morgan, rumors to the contrary, is not your friend.
Axelwolf also makes the strange and somewhat absurd argument that anyone can do what he does, so that makes him special. Not sure what to make of that, other than he likes to see himself as some King Midas. If that's what flips his switch, he should just write a book and share the wealth all at once and for everybody. A lot of bizarre contradictions. Anyone can do what he does, so he's special. And he's so magnanimous, but he needs to keep it a secret, except when he doesn't because he's so magnanimous.
Strange dude.
Bolded is the characteristic Dietzian misinterpretation.
Why are you dropping Munchkin’s name? You despise what he does. He’s a “Leonardo Da AP.” He’s beaten every game in the casino and is quoted saying “Every game in the casino can be beaten under the right conditions.” How about you tell Munchkin if he multi accounts, which he IS doing BTW, that they will take his money. He’ll laugh in your face.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Any third-party verifications of reality seem anathema to you. Not surprised.
At its peak, there were literally more than a hundred services recorded and monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Since clients of the services often used multiple services, it was literally impossible to cheat reporting-wise. People knew what the records were. The other services would have known what you had or had not done. There were also things at the time called Consensus Services which subscribed to multiple, sometimes dozens of services, and packaged and sold the plays to consumers much more cheaply than the services themselves. Again, the consensus services' records for the services they sold matched the records in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"
Axel acts like he doesn't know any of this, which is shocking, because Boz knows all this stuff and Boz works with Axel.
In addition, it's pretty hard to fake ATS records when you are on newsstands in literally a thousand locations prior to games being played, as with all of the classic tipsheets such as Playbook (Lawrence), or The Gold Sheet (Olshan), or Gridiron Report (Malinsky). So the idea that I or anyone could fake a record in Playbook is absurd.
But I appreciate all of the alleged "APs" deciding, after blackjack has dried up, video poker has dried up, tax laws make both tournament poker and video poker money pits, that "APs" are now sports betting experts. Munchkin no longer plays blackjack in LV (which kewlJ seems to not mention much). Dancer plans to retire end-of-year due to tax laws. So now multi-accounting bonus-whoring sports is the ticket. Well, once upon a time, it may have been, but it won't be tomorrow. Sports books have cleaned up their legal language and are within their rights to seize your money if you do this stuff. Check Munchkin's videos for the latest.
Good luck with it, guys. Multi-account all you like. Exploit others' names for bonuses all you like. Then make YouTube videos explaining how the books "ripped you off after you made millions."
Redietz is ignorant as to how ignorant he is.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyBeing obsessed with money comes at a high price. Things you can't buy are more valuable than money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.
The money you pursue enslaves you. The more money a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul.
Or your time. That has always been my emphasis.
Or your health. Captain Morgan, rumors to the contrary, is not your friend.
Axelwolf also makes the strange and somewhat absurd argument that anyone can do what he does, so that makes him special. Not sure what to make of that, other than he likes to see himself as some King Midas. If that's what flips his switch, he should just write a book and share the wealth all at once and for everybody. A lot of bizarre contradictions. Anyone can do what he does, so he's special. And he's so magnanimous, but he needs to keep it a secret, except when he doesn't because he's so magnanimous.
Strange dude.
The retard
Found something that works (debatable, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt)
Thinks he's a fucking genius for finding it
Thinks nearly nobody else can do it
Thinks that nothing else works remotely as well (let alone better)
Tale as old as time
Especially stupidQuote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerQuote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Or your time. That has always been my emphasis.
Or your health. Captain Morgan, rumors to the contrary, is not your friend.
Axelwolf also makes the strange and somewhat absurd argument that anyone can do what he does, so that makes him special. Not sure what to make of that, other than he likes to see himself as some King Midas. If that's what flips his switch, he should just write a book and share the wealth all at once and for everybody. A lot of bizarre contradictions. Anyone can do what he does, so he's special. And he's so magnanimous, but he needs to keep it a secret, except when he doesn't because he's so magnanimous.
Strange dude.
Bolded is the characteristic Dietzian misinterpretation.
---> Would You Believe? (Ray Charles album).Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
https://anagram-solver.net/All%20the....?partial=true
https://youtu.be/HtVUESzHpHk
P.S. Them that got doesn't necessarily refer to money. Ha.
Never heard of anyone calling themselves an AP from playing poker tournaments.. learn something new with redietz every dayQuote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Any third-party verifications of reality seem anathema to you. Not surprised.
At its peak, there were literally more than a hundred services recorded and monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Since clients of the services often used multiple services, it was literally impossible to cheat reporting-wise. People knew what the records were. The other services would have known what you had or had not done. There were also things at the time called Consensus Services which subscribed to multiple, sometimes dozens of services, and packaged and sold the plays to consumers much more cheaply than the services themselves. Again, the consensus services' records for the services they sold matched the records in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"
Axel acts like he doesn't know any of this, which is shocking, because Boz knows all this stuff and Boz works with Axel.
In addition, it's pretty hard to fake ATS records when you are on newsstands in literally a thousand locations prior to games being played, as with all of the classic tipsheets such as Playbook (Lawrence), or The Gold Sheet (Olshan), or Gridiron Report (Malinsky). So the idea that I or anyone could fake a record in Playbook is absurd.
But I appreciate all of the alleged "APs" deciding, after blackjack has dried up, video poker has dried up, tax laws make both tournament poker and video poker money pits, that "APs" are now sports betting experts. Munchkin no longer plays blackjack in LV (which kewlJ seems to not mention much). Dancer plans to retire end-of-year due to tax laws. So now multi-accounting bonus-whoring sports is the ticket. Well, once upon a time, it may have been, but it won't be tomorrow. Sports books have cleaned up their legal language and are within their rights to seize your money if you do this stuff. Check Munchkin's videos for the latest.
Good luck with it, guys. Multi-account all you like. Exploit others' names for bonuses all you like. Then make YouTube videos explaining how the books "ripped you off after you made millions."
What you learn about Redietz is just how angry and bitter he is, just like every other anti-APer on this forum. If someone were reading this forum for the first time, they would ask why is this guy so freaking angry with other players that play with an advantage and win? If he is doing something or has done something to make a profit good for him, but why is he so pissed at other that are doing so? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
And that is always the tell with these anti-APers. I NEVER see an AP pissed at other APs that are doing something at an advantage to win, like these guys are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dietz says I never mentioned that Munchkin no longer plays blackjack. I don't talk much about Munchkin because I don't communicate with him much anymore. BUT I certainly have mentioned that Munchkin got involved with James and moved on from blackjack about 10 years ago. MOST APs that were card counting, moved on to bigger and better advantage plays in the last 15 years. Including some on this forum.
BUT that doesn't mean that blackjack dried up. It just means that most AP are chasing bigger edges (with less hassle). I have chosen to continue to play blackjack.
Here's the difference between you touts and AP's. YOU ARE SELLING OR TRYING TO SELL SOMETHING. AP'S ain't trying to sell anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Any third-party verifications of reality seem anathema to you. Not surprised.
At its peak, there were literally more than a hundred services recorded and monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Since clients of the services often used multiple services, it was literally impossible to cheat reporting-wise. People knew what the records were. The other services would have known what you had or had not done. There were also things at the time called Consensus Services which subscribed to multiple, sometimes dozens of services, and packaged and sold the plays to consumers much more cheaply than the services themselves. Again, the consensus services' records for the services they sold matched the records in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"
Axel acts like he doesn't know any of this, which is shocking, because Boz knows all this stuff and Boz works with Axel.
In addition, it's pretty hard to fake ATS records when you are on newsstands in literally a thousand locations prior to games being played, as with all of the classic tipsheets such as Playbook (Lawrence), or The Gold Sheet (Olshan), or Gridiron Report (Malinsky). So the idea that I or anyone could fake a record in Playbook is absurd.
But I appreciate all of the alleged "APs" deciding, after blackjack has dried up, video poker has dried up, tax laws make both tournament poker and video poker money pits, that "APs" are now sports betting experts. Munchkin no longer plays blackjack in LV (which kewlJ seems to not mention much). Dancer plans to retire end-of-year due to tax laws. So now multi-accounting bonus-whoring sports is the ticket. Well, once upon a time, it may have been, but it won't be tomorrow. Sports books have cleaned up their legal language and are within their rights to seize your money if you do this stuff. Check Munchkin's videos for the latest.
Good luck with it, guys. Multi-account all you like. Exploit others' names for bonuses all you like. Then make YouTube videos explaining how the books "ripped you off after you made millions."
You touts need a track record, even if it's phonied up, to sell to suckers. You make money off the suckers.
If some anonymous AP on the internet says he made 200K last year why the fuck would it mean a damn thing to you? You aren't winning or losing a dime because of it.
But if a tout runs rough on his picks then his suckers run even worse. You have the ability to hurt people financially. An anonymous AP bragging on the internet about how much he makes isn't hurting anyone.
I want to comment on this because I am one of very few AP's that has talked about what they make on a yearly (average) basis. I don't see many other APs do that, and for good reason. I have never heard you give a figure what you make a year, mick. Nor Axelwolf, nor any other legitimate AP. I guess seedvalue did...we'll leave that go for now.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Now as to why I have done so, first I am at the lower end of what most full-time type APs make. And that makes sense since my primary play is something at a very slim advantage that you MUST grind at.
And I know me stating what I make or made rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. BUT my intention was anything but bragging. Again, I am on the lower end of what most APs make. The reason I did so, was because back when I started on forums, the movie "21" had just come out, along with 2 different books on that same MIT team's experiences. Additionally there were several popular blackjack teams, like the Church team that were posting what they were doing almost in real time. And you had people like KC, who were traveling around in his RV (a real RV) making big bucks.
The results was these players made it look like making 2, 3, 5 hundred thousand dollars as a card counter or part of a team was routine, when it was NOT. These types of players and teams were able to make good money but for relatively short periods of time. 6 months, maybe a year. KC's travels lasted almost 18 month, IIRC. And then they were done! At least making decent money from blackjack play. I refer this this approach as the "slaughter" approach, as in shear a sheep vs slaughter a sheep. Another popular term for this kind of play is "slash & burn".
Well I was engaging in the "shear" approach. I wanted to play for years, identifying levels of play and a style of play that were better tolerated and would allow for some longevity. So I started sharing what I was doing and what I was making to show what a real player playing for longevity can make. And that ceiling amount is about 100k. there are actually several different ways to play, with focus on longevity, one being the way I played for a decade really grinding (lots of hours) at what I call mid level stakes (max bet under $500) and a second approach which is to play less, a couple days a week, maybe 8 days a month at a little higher stakes, which is actually how I play now. A lot of card counters that traveled a lot played this way. 3-4 , 2-3 day trips a month. BUT guess what both sort of have the same ceiling 80, 90, 100k a year (average).
THAT is what I set out to show and share. What a card counter with an eye or priority on longevity could make. My sharing of what I make/made was anything but bragging. I wanted to counter this idea that had popped up that card counters could make 3,4,5 hundred K. I mean you can do that for maybe a year. (as time went on only months).
So I make no apologies for sharing my actual numbers. :cool: I think you probably understand why I did so, mickeycrimm, and it was anything but bragging.
This is also where EV comes into the equation for a card counter. 80, 90, 100k, is what you can get to EVwise. Actual results can and will be on either side of the curve. Which I have also shown by sharing my actual results.
Take this year. as of today, MY EV for blackjack for this year is 51k. I am running a little bit ahead of that in actual results or win. BUT most of this year I was running a little behind. The last 5-6 weekends plus an out of town trip have been good and pushed results slightly above expectation. The next couple months could be bad and fall below...who knows. BUT most years fall pretty close to expectation or EV. And of the few that don't fall close to EV and I have shared years significantly above as well as below, if you widen out and look at a 2-3 year total, it is always very close to EV.
Because that is what EV is. And that is the way the math works. Gambling is math! Blackjack and card counting is math. And the math doesn't lie! And that is why these "stories" that defy the math are offensive to me. As well as some dude like Dietz that doesn't seem to have a fucking clue what EV even is. :cool:
Yea, but we're the bad guys because we dry up bonus opportunities and take advantage of friends and family who'd never gotten the money otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmHere's the difference between you touts and AP's. YOU ARE SELLING OR TRYING TO SELL SOMETHING. AP'S ain't trying to sell anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Any third-party verifications of reality seem anathema to you. Not surprised.
At its peak, there were literally more than a hundred services recorded and monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Since clients of the services often used multiple services, it was literally impossible to cheat reporting-wise. People knew what the records were. The other services would have known what you had or had not done. There were also things at the time called Consensus Services which subscribed to multiple, sometimes dozens of services, and packaged and sold the plays to consumers much more cheaply than the services themselves. Again, the consensus services' records for the services they sold matched the records in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"
Axel acts like he doesn't know any of this, which is shocking, because Boz knows all this stuff and Boz works with Axel.
In addition, it's pretty hard to fake ATS records when you are on newsstands in literally a thousand locations prior to games being played, as with all of the classic tipsheets such as Playbook (Lawrence), or The Gold Sheet (Olshan), or Gridiron Report (Malinsky). So the idea that I or anyone could fake a record in Playbook is absurd.
But I appreciate all of the alleged "APs" deciding, after blackjack has dried up, video poker has dried up, tax laws make both tournament poker and video poker money pits, that "APs" are now sports betting experts. Munchkin no longer plays blackjack in LV (which kewlJ seems to not mention much). Dancer plans to retire end-of-year due to tax laws. So now multi-accounting bonus-whoring sports is the ticket. Well, once upon a time, it may have been, but it won't be tomorrow. Sports books have cleaned up their legal language and are within their rights to seize your money if you do this stuff. Check Munchkin's videos for the latest.
Good luck with it, guys. Multi-account all you like. Exploit others' names for bonuses all you like. Then make YouTube videos explaining how the books "ripped you off after you made millions."
You touts need a track record, even if it's phonied up, to sell to suckers. You make money off the suckers.
If some anonymous AP on the internet says he made 200K last year why the fuck would it mean a damn thing to you? You aren't winning or losing a dime because of it.
But if a tout runs rough on his picks then his suckers run even worse. You have the ability to hurt people financially. An anonymous AP bragging on the internet about how much he makes isn't hurting anyone.
Mdawg has that big list of Kewl lies. We could easily make a list of misrepresentations and misunderstandings from Redietz that would give kewl a bit of a run for the money.
Whether you belive Kewl or not - he isn't really trying to mislead in a way that hurts them. Although I suppose someone could move to LV to count after taking inspiration frmo him .. or think they'll get sports betting bonus offers that no one else get. It is rubbish. Mick spells it out above.
I once pushed and pushed Redietz as to why is it in an AP's interest to put their name out there. His answer was literally for "opportunities". As if anything but a handful of AP types have dreams of having a movie made after them. I've heard the card counting woman... I forget her name but all the APs would know who I'm talking about. I've heard she has aspirations because she chunked off all her $$ supposedly playing big NL at bellagio at a game with "no pros" or whatever. She was likely a gambling addict and thats how she even got into the game to begin with although she tells the tale somewhere but I forget. This is the only AP I've ever heard of that wants to be famous and thats because she wasted all her $$ she made when it was far easier to make. gamblerx or maybe rxgamble. whatever. Here you have an attractive woman who worked some of hte more interesting angles in APs and I've yet to see any movie.
The truth is Redietz wants leverage to silence people.
And if many people seriously invest in Redietz and also read this forum then it is a really bad look. It is insanity for him to attack APs on here. Some of the most knowledable gamblers in the world. Literally. Sure they don't geek out knowing every little thing about football but no one cares either. THey just want the money.
I want to feel sorry for Redietz but he just can't help himself. His bitterness inspired arrogance is beyond his ability to control.
I think someone DID move to LV to count cards after taking inspiration from me. Someone on this very forum. And guess what, he has done well, despite his own following of haters.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
AND there have been a few others that I don't know if they moved to LV, but definitely pursued card counting because of me sharing my journey. And some of them didn't fair as well. But if they busted out, didn't have the mentality that it takes, had major holes in their game, I take no responsibility for that. I NEVER told or even encouraged anyone to follow in my footsteps.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AinQ, stop repeating Mdawgs talking points. Be better than that. Be normal, like you used to be. Mdawgs list of lies is a list of things he doesn't believe 99% with no proof. (actually I think he does believe most) There are or were things on that list about where I went to school and for how long, whether or not I surfed as kid, living near Daytona Beach. Whether I have a brother for God sakes.
Seriously AinQ...be better than this.
Zenking I assume? If not him then whom?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI think someone DID move to LV to count cards after taking inspiration from me. Someone on this very forum. And guess what, he has done well, despite his own following of haters.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
AND there have been a few others that I don't know if they moved to LV, but definitely pursued card counting because of me sharing my journey. And some of them didn't fair as well. But if they busted out, didn't have the mentality that it takes, had major holes in their game, I take no responsibility for that. I NEVER told or even encouraged anyone to follow in my footsteps.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AinQ, stop repeating Mdawgs talking points. Be better than that. Be normal, like you used to be. Mdawgs list of lies is a list of things he doesn't believe 99% with no proof. (actually I think he does believe most) There are or were things on that list about where I went to school and for how long, whether or not I surfed as kid, living near Daytona Beach. Whether I have a brother for God sakes.
Seriously AinQ...be better than this.
You really should get your facts straight. I have met up and hung out with Boz and made a few plays with Boz in the past, and consider him a friend. It's been a long time since we've found the right opportunity to do any business together.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Boz is a straight shooter, and I respect his opinion.
One would have to ask him to clarify, but it's of my opinion that his opinion on all these sports tout/investor/verification Publications is all a big scammy pile of BS.
Didn't we just have someone on here who you touted as knowledgeable regarding tipsters and dipsters who ended up saying it was all bullshit? And then of course you guys claimed it was a KJ souckpuppet which was clearly not true?
Red says, "Bonuses don't/won't last."
25 years later, and then
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7CZcd-UYmU
Sports bonuses will be gone when betting on sports is gone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
Ok, Schopenhauer. Why don't you try getting your own material?Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyBeing obsessed with money comes at a high price. Hopefully exoticThings you can't buy are more valuable than money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.
The money you pursue enslaves you. The more money a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul.
I'm certainly not obsessed with money, as I have given up a fuckton to enjoy doing things that I want to avoid things I don't want to do. I also retired way earlier than I should have. I guess I really only semi-retired. I'll put in a few months a year on good promotion, offers, and some online stuff.
How do you measure one's worth? That seems very subjective. My friends, my wife, and my family would have to be the judges of that. I'm confident I would fare very well in that department.
Come on, man, this is all just someone else's philosophical mumbo jumbo. Sure, some of these things might be true for some people, some of the time, but it certainly isn't true for everyone all the time.
Oh, and if I lost everything and was suddenly broke, I would/could just go make more money. I've already proved that.
I'm fairly certain that if I were motivated enough, I could make $1,000 with no bankroll.
I don't believe in a soul, God, or any bullshit higher power stuff.
The fact is, we are here talking about professional gambling/sports, and so yeah, it matters how much money someone who is making when they make claims of how many Sports picks they win/won and their records, Etc.
I'm fairly certain that you've proven my point...Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
It's not surprising that you don't believe in a soul, or even understand what that means.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
You're entire worth is predicated on a soulless participation in a solved game, without an opponent.
No thought, no opinion, minimal effort...just mindless button-pushing like some rat in a cage in search of a treat.
It's likely that you wouldn't have any relationships if not for the money you chase.
I would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I have been at the little sports betting bonus play that I have been doing 2 years now. And Yes, Redeitz said at the time it couldn't last and bonuses would dry up ect.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
So I started with only 4 off shore books. In the 2 years, I have lost 2, one I dropped after they stiffed me on a bonus after the fact and one I dropped when the cut my future bonuses to almost nothing (nothing profitable anyway). And in that time I have added 3 new books to replace them, currently working off 5 books.
So that is a total of 7 books I have dealt with in my 2 years. Out of what 5000? 10,000? I am maybe .1% of the way through. :cool:
Just imagine if I wanted to go big and play a bunch of books? :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
This is laughable. Axelwolf and kewlJ continually express strong opinions, and make declarative statements, on subjects they literally know nothing about. I guess that's what "APs" do. They figure the "EV" on all manner of things, even completely inappropriate non-random events, and then puff up and make declarative statements.
It's a joke. Axelwolf is terrible at this stuff. He doesn't remember clearly, doesn't actually quote anything, paraphrases everything, and yet spouts declarations based on no quotes, bad and inaccurate paraphrasing, no actual data, sloppy ballpark "I think he said that" or "IIRC." You can't fake your way to being actually knowledgeable regarding stuff you wish was A but is actually B.
Can you imagine if I or anyone made idiot comments regarding blackjack or machine play?
There is zero evidence for anything kewlJ does. Axelwolf admits he's doing all the things that can result in sports books hijacking your money with what is now just legal cause. The creme de la creme of the AP world.
oooh shit I was drinking.. Hit reply to a post. Starting getting into it.. "This guy is a retard" .. then I realized it was Coach Belly and I remembered something I was told.
Responding to Coach Belly is a losing game.
But a game that is also solved.
I hit Back. WTF AIQ?
The only thing laughable about this situation is YOU Bob Dietz! For some reason you told us all for a decade how you were a professional sports bettor, when you were a "tout". A tout is NOT a professional sports bettor. How you are not embarrassed to the point that you haven't disappeared after the Kim Lee situation is beyond me.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
And STOP using the term "EV". You don't know the meaning of the term and have lost the privilege of using it.
It isn't just generalist gamblers who use EV. THere are plenty of specializsed sports bettors. They all use EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI would love to hear Boz's opinion on all that has transpired in the last 3 months regarding Deitz's sports betting / sports touting career? Including what Boz thinks of Kim Lee's conclusions on the subject. How do we get him here? Is there a bat phone like "Boz Phone"?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
This is laughable. Axelwolf and kewlJ continually express strong opinions, and make declarative statements, on subjects they literally know nothing about. I guess that's what "APs" do. They figure the "EV" on all manner of things, even completely inappropriate non-random events, and then puff up and make declarative statements.
It's a joke. Axelwolf is terrible at this stuff. He doesn't remember clearly, doesn't actually quote anything, paraphrases everything, and yet spouts declarations based on no quotes, bad and inaccurate paraphrasing, no actual data, sloppy ballpark "I think he said that" or "IIRC." You can't fake your way to being actually knowledgeable regarding stuff you wish was A but is actually B.
Can you imagine if I or anyone made idiot comments regarding blackjack or machine play?
There is zero evidence for anything kewlJ does. Axelwolf admits he's doing all the things that can result in sports books hijacking your money with what is now just legal cause. The creme de la creme of the AP world.
The thing I feel you don't get is that people smart enough to really beat this shit understood good and well that EV has some sort of subjectivity. You on the other hand don't realize the obviousness of it all. The other guys understand all the implications and you have a hard-on to tell yourself that you're special for understanding what everyone else in the room understood from the get-go.
ouch.
like I said I've been drinking fellas. Waiting to go to the bar again. Tonights one of those nights but need to hold up a bit.
Everything is a losing game for you, rummy.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
But I prefer that you not respond to me.
And since most of what you post is nonsense, I prefer that you not post at all.
Now go away, fag, we don't want any drunk fags around here.
Thank you for your consideration in this matter.
giggle
It's unclear what redietz means by random vs non random events.
If a random event is an event of which the outcome is uncertain before it occurs, sports is clearly random. Even if bribed players were attempting to throw a game its outcome would not be strictly certain, especially a team sport.
So I assume what he means is not random vs non random but something like normal vs subject to exogenous variables (meaning variables that cannot be accurately incorporated into a model because they are too infrequent or otherwise not measurable).
Not going to bother arguing whether this is a valid point, I just want to know whether it is the point he wishes to make. Because he seems to alternate between "EV cannot be used for sports because sports are not random" and "people should say 'my opinion of the EV' rather than 'EV' because the former implies greater precision than is accurately possible".
The other point I would like clarified is what this stuff is about books (presumably US books since otherwise it's nothing new) now having the legal ground to "hijack your money".
I don't think the point is particularly important to any of the arguments here since nobody claimed that bonus whoring is without risks in the first place.
But regardless of risk what is Dietz actually referring to? The last anecdote I heard of along these lines was someone won big in the Midwest betting repeatedly at kiosks, I guess using multiple cards to get around the betting limits.
Anyway in that case (which was a local gaming commission decision, not sure if it has gone to court) CET voided his bet after it had already won, effectively free rolling him.
Obviously bad for him but not the same as seizing his funds and also not something that would necessarily occur in other jurisdictions (on the ground that the casinos can't legally free rolling).
ETA - Actually I don't think that involved multiple cards, just alleged structuring (but actually just trying to avoid getting limited).
More Philosophical BS from you, as there isn't an exact meaning.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyI'm fairly certain that you've proven my point...Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
It's not surprising that you don't believe in a soul, or even understand what that means.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
You're entire worth is predicated on a soulless participation in a solved game, without an opponent.
No thought, no opinion, minimal effort...just mindless button-pushing like some rat in a cage in search of a treat.
It's likely that you wouldn't have any relationships if not for the money you chase.
THIS doesn't sound right to me in regards to U.S. land based casinos, including the "kid" that Colorado book stole his money. I will wait to hear what some of the legal experts think.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
I mean if a player is banned from a casino....for whatever reason and sneaks back in and hits a jackpot, the casino has to pay the jackpot. They can arrest the player for trespassing, but it is my understanding that they have to pay that jackpot. Anything else is stealing. This would be the same situation.
You might have to get a lawyer and fight them, and if you do be sure to include legal costs as part of the damages, but I don't think any casino commission in this country or and judicial system is going to say it is ok for the casinos to steal that money. And casinos writing rules and that is all they are is rules...NOT law that says they can....doesn't mean they can. Casinos throughout time have always tried to get away with illegal shit.
Now off shore? That is another matter. We understand the risk when you play off shore or even in another country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soxfan
That's ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?
Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?
What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?
We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.
Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?
Concepts, qualities, standards and constructs must be incomprehensible to a cretin like you.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Yes, all of those things are random in the sense of "subject to the math of random events" or however redietz put it.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?
Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?
What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?
We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.
Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?
A perfect coin that is 50/50 to land heads or tails lands randomly. So does a skewed coin that lands 99/1 heads.
Or am I mistaken?
Am I catching this correctly? Belly has 5000 posts calling APs liars, and now he pivots to: APs are unfulfilled because the money comes too easily.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
This forum needs a default ignore list.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?
Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?
What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?
We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.
Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?
Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.
It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.
I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.
It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.
You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every...single...play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?
Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?
What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?
We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.
Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?
Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.
It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.
I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.
It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.
You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every single play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.
What is the meaning you understand by "random" when you write of "the math of random events"?