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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #621
    .


    pretty interesting - to me any way

    Mission runs a WOV Nfl picks contest - I think all of the contestants make about 5 or 6 picks each week of the regular season

    in 2021 JohnZimbo won it going 71-36________66% winners__________30% r.o.i.

    I thought he was The King of the World after 2021 - just kidding - but I was impressed

    then the next year - 2022 - he went 37-63_______36% winners - and he came in last place


    maybe he had some personal stuff that affected his abilities - I dunno

    like so many things in sports betting my answer to all of this is just "I dunno" - there is a mysterious quality about it which makes it fascinating

    .
    the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

  2. #622
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    in 2021 JohnZimbo won it going 71-36________66% winners__________30% r.o.i.
    I'd want to look at his reasoning, if available. Because this outcome can happen through ordinary chance.

    From a probability calculator:

    https://goodcalculators.com/coin-fli...ty-calculator/

    Name:  coin probs.png
Views: 550
Size:  46.8 KB

    If my actual skill level is 55%, then my chance of achieving 66%+ in 100 trials is almost 2%.

    If I'm applying this correctly, then a 60-entrant contest should produce one 66%+ outcome despite everyone being only 55% skilled.

    If I'm totally unskilled (50%), then I'm only 0.1% to achieve 66%+. But a contest of >1000 unskilled entrants should produce at least one such outlier.

  3. #623
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    in 2021 JohnZimbo won it going 71-36________66% winners__________30% r.o.i.
    I'd want to look at his reasoning, if available. Because this outcome can happen through ordinary chance.

    From a probability calculator:

    https://goodcalculators.com/coin-fli...ty-calculator/

    Name:  coin probs.png
Views: 550
Size:  46.8 KB

    If my actual skill level is 55%, then my chance of achieving 66%+ in 100 trials is almost 2%.

    If I'm applying this correctly, then a 60-entrant contest should produce one 66%+ outcome despite everyone being only 55% skilled.

    If I'm totally unskilled (50%), then I'm only 0.1% to achieve 66%+. But a contest of >1000 unskilled entrants should produce at least one such outlier.

    it wasn't anywhere near a 60 entrant contest - there were 21 entrants in 2021

    you could try creating an account at WOV and sending a PM to Johnzimbo to get his reasoning - other than doing the picks he's not very active there



    how about figuring out the chance that one person could go 71-36 one year and 37-63 the next year__________(-:\_____________good luck with that - I know I couldn't do it


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-19-2023 at 09:16 AM.
    the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

  4. #624
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    how about figuring out the chance that one person could go 71-36 one year and 37-63 the next year__________(-:\_____________good luck with that - I know I couldn't do it
    That's certifiably weird.

    His good year was more extreme than his bad year. If we assume a 52% skill rate, it balances the two annual outcomes at about 0.18% probability each (1 in 550). That would be something like 1 in 300k for the 2 years back-to-back, in my not very well educated opinion.

  5. #625
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    how about figuring out the chance that one person could go 71-36 one year and 37-63 the next year__________(-:\_____________good luck with that - I know I couldn't do it
    That's certifiably weird.
    I don't find this all that unusual or weird. The sample size is small and that means almost anything can happen. You add the back to back good year and bad year and now you are dealing with a larger sample size and results should tend to revert closer to expectation.

    I have had similar things occur twice now with my blackjack play years. In 2012 I had my 2nd worse year since I have been in Vegas, some 60k below expectation. The very next year my best ever some 50k above expectation.

    In 2020 I had what now is my worse year in Vegas, with results barely into 5 figures at 13k. There was some covid related things to this year in playing less). The very next year 2021 was my second best, well over 100k.

    Two different case of one of my worst years immediately followed by one of my best. But in both cases if you add the two years together creating a larger sample size, results come pretty darn close to expectation. Almost exactly like the sports contest example above. This is why you should never get too excited or upset by any small sample size results.

  6. #626
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I don't find this all that unusual or weird. The sample size is small and that means almost anything can happen.
    Not quite almost anything imo. My analysis could be wrong, but the binomial distribution should apply here.

    http://people.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/...alPlotter.html

    100 trials:

    Name:  n100.jpg
Views: 519
Size:  25.3 KB

    You should basically always finish between 35 and 65%. For simplicity I'm assuming no skill (p=0.5%), but the generator does allow p value specification.

    Here's 1000 trials:

    Name:  n1000.jpg
Views: 503
Size:  28.2 KB

    Now the outcome is almost always between 45 and 55%.

  7. #627
    Still early, but I'm 16-8 in MLB and up well over 7 units (where I am betting 1 unit flat on every bet, for fair and easy record keeping).

    I slightly won last MLB season after a bad first half, where I made up for it during the second half. I made some adjustments for this year, including mostly avoiding unders until the rule change impact on them is better seen, and paying more attention to CSW (called strike/whiff) rate and swinging strikes, when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Last year I was focusing more on velocity and K/BB ratios, but this year I'm also closely examining CSW and swinging strikes.

    One nice thing about my baseball season so far is that most of my 16 wins were not close. A very high percentage of them were clear victories almost the entire way. That's a sign that I'm doing things right, at least for now.

    I had a monster NFL season, and decent NCAAF season.

    However, I absolutely cannot beat basketball, either college or NBA. I think it's time to quit them.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #628
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Still early, but I'm 16-8 in MLB and up well over 7 units (where I am betting 1 unit flat on every bet, for fair and easy record keeping).

    I slightly won last MLB season after a bad first half, where I made up for it during the second half. I made some adjustments for this year, including mostly avoiding unders until the rule change impact on them is better seen, and paying more attention to CSW (called strike/whiff) rate and swinging strikes, when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Last year I was focusing more on velocity and K/BB ratios, but this year I'm also closely examining CSW and swinging strikes.

    One nice thing about my baseball season so far is that most of my 16 wins were not close. A very high percentage of them were clear victories almost the entire way. That's a sign that I'm doing things right, at least for now.

    I had a monster NFL season, and decent NCAAF season.

    However, I absolutely cannot beat basketball, either college or NBA. I think it's time to quit them.
    I heard about this guy Christopher something or other who is suppose to be the greatest professional gambler of all time.

    For only $1,000 a month he’ll let you copy all his sports bets pick by pick.

  9. #629
    [QUOTE=redietz;156824]
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I put this post in the wrong thread:

    Two people bet Team A at -2. The line moves to -4. One person then bets Team B at -4 to shoot for the 2 point middle. Then after that the line moves to -5. The other person then bets Team B to go for the 3 point middle. Which is the best bet?
    So far reditz' answer to the above question is "you can't see the forest for the tree's. There's a lot of tree's....and forest fires."

    Anything but a straight answer. He's in a pickle to explain away EV on this one.
    Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.

  10. #630
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Still early, but I'm 16-8 in MLB and up well over 7 units (where I am betting 1 unit flat on every bet, for fair and easy record keeping).

    I slightly won last MLB season after a bad first half, where I made up for it during the second half. I made some adjustments for this year, including mostly avoiding unders until the rule change impact on them is better seen, and paying more attention to CSW (called strike/whiff) rate and swinging strikes, when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Last year I was focusing more on velocity and K/BB ratios, but this year I'm also closely examining CSW and swinging strikes.

    One nice thing about my baseball season so far is that most of my 16 wins were not close. A very high percentage of them were clear victories almost the entire way. That's a sign that I'm doing things right, at least for now.

    I had a monster NFL season, and decent NCAAF season.

    However, I absolutely cannot beat basketball, either college or NBA. I think it's time to quit them.

    many fewer picks but if you take out hoops Dan is crushing EV analytics and their about 2% r.o.i.


    2.7% r.o.i. on 123 MLB picks last season

    7.1% r.o.i. on 95 picks in the NCAAF last season

    and an awesome 19% r.o.i. this past season on 88 NFL picks

    and way, way up so far with 24 picks in this MLB season



    but to be fair to EV Analytics, I'm not sure if Dan's record from prior years - if it was included - would still be a crush

    Dan would have to answer that - I don't feel like going back over all that

    even if the prior years didn't hold up to the most current year - still - Dan may have improved a great deal - and the most current year might be representative of his abilities

    again, the "I dunno" or mystery factor shows itself in sports betting


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-20-2023 at 05:05 AM.
    the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

  11. #631
    Found this on the other forum but I know everyone doesn't read both so I had to post it here.

    Originally Posted by Rob Singer
    Meet Redietz, the self-proclaimed sports tout,
    He boasted of his skills, he'd often shout,
    Claimed he had the highest ROI in the game,
    But his evidence was nothing but old magazines' fame.

    He talked a big talk, flaunting his stats,
    But when asked for proof, he'd dodge and cat,
    He'd show faded clippings from decades past,
    Claiming he had a system that was sure to last.

    His brags were grand, his confidence high,
    But as time went on, doubts began to fly,
    His ROI remained a mystery, unverified,
    Despite his claims, he couldn't be dignified.

    He'd talk about big wins and lucky streaks,
    But no one could confirm, no matter how they peaks,
    His reputation dwindled, his words lost their charm,
    As his lack of evidence caused alarm.

    Others in the industry were skeptical,
    As Redietz's boasts grew increasingly whimsical,
    They questioned his credibility, his track record,
    But he only waved them off, acting undeterred.

    But as the years went by, Redietz's bravado waned,
    His empty claims could no longer be sustained,
    His old magazines couldn't hide the truth,
    His ROI was dubious, lacking in proof.

    In the end, Redietz's tales were nothing but hot air,
    His bragging and boasting led to nowhere,
    His reputation faded, his credibility dimmed,
    As his lack of substance left others unimpressed and grim.

    So, dear sports bettors, take heed of this tale,
    Don't be fooled by empty boasts that might sound swell,
    Verify the facts, demand evidence true,
    Before trusting a sports tout's claims, it's the smart thing to do.

  12. #632

  13. #633
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In the UK but being prosecuted for beards/bonus whoring?

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/234...-fraud-bet365/
    He was prosecuted for bank fraud, some kind of misrepresentation to a bank. Not for anything done to the sports book.

  14. #634
    .


    I've bet horses for many years - recreationally - I had a couple of winning years but overall I was down - only a little bit - I just wanted to find just ONE winning angle - but I couldn't

    lately I tried something new and it's been working - I've been doing well

    I bet very few races - only on Graded Stakes - these are the highest caliber thoroughbreds on the planet - very high purses that go up into the millions

    these horses are very different from the lower level entries - visually it's obvious to those who know racing - the way they comport themselves - their appearance - they run with great balance - and they're much more consistent - and much faster

    it's too soon to say that I actually have an edge and will remain a winner - but I'm hopeful

    I don't bet much anymore - I spent 6 years counting down BJ one day every single week playing for about 14 hours straight breaking only to throw down some food - and then quite a bit of sports betting

    now, it's only recreational - I would have to make huge bets to really make a difference in my finances and I don't want to do that


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-23-2023 at 01:43 AM.
    the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

  15. #635
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In the UK but being prosecuted for beards/bonus whoring?

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/234...-fraud-bet365/
    He was prosecuted for bank fraud, some kind of misrepresentation to a bank. Not for anything done to the sports book.
    Did you read about the case elsewhere? From the article it seems like the fraud by false representation charge may have dealt with bonus abuse. It isn't clear at all though

  16. #636
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In the UK but being prosecuted for beards/bonus whoring?

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/234...-fraud-bet365/
    He was prosecuted for bank fraud, some kind of misrepresentation to a bank. Not for anything done to the sports book.
    Did you read about the case elsewhere? From the article it seems like the fraud by false representation charge may have dealt with bonus abuse. It isn't clear at all though

    Just this article but it said this was a fraud against the bank, not the book.

    My guess is this guy was funding and cashing out the accounts himself rather than having the beards do it and in the process of doing that he made some kind of fraudulent misrepresentation to the bank that he was the beard.

  17. #637
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post

    He was prosecuted for bank fraud, some kind of misrepresentation to a bank. Not for anything done to the sports book.
    Did you read about the case elsewhere? From the article it seems like the fraud by false representation charge may have dealt with bonus abuse. It isn't clear at all though

    Just this article but it said this was a fraud against the bank, not the book.

    My guess is this guy was funding and cashing out the accounts himself rather than having the beards do it and in the process of doing that he made some kind of fraudulent misrepresentation to the bank that he was the beard.
    More than once the article refers to his ability to receive multiple bonuses that he should not have received. From my reading it isn't clear but really sounds like he was convicted at least partially for having multiple accounts.

  18. #638
    Reading it again it does look like they found a fraud against Bet365 distinct from the fraud against the bank. The article's a bit vague on the specific charges.

    Must be a UK thing as I've never heard of anyone charged here.

  19. #639
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    Did you read about the case elsewhere? From the article it seems like the fraud by false representation charge may have dealt with bonus abuse. It isn't clear at all though

    Just this article but it said this was a fraud against the bank, not the book.

    My guess is this guy was funding and cashing out the accounts himself rather than having the beards do it and in the process of doing that he made some kind of fraudulent misrepresentation to the bank that he was the beard.
    More than once the article refers to his ability to receive multiple bonuses that he should not have received. From my reading it isn't clear but really sounds like he was convicted at least partially for having multiple accounts.

    He was doing chargebacks on the original money he deposited after he lost, cleared bonus and received cashout. Everyone knows how to run this fraud that opens multiple accounts. However there’s no reason to be so fucking stupid when just arbing the bonuses Is so easy. This guy got to greedy probably bored or something considering he’s been in the game since 2008.

  20. #640

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