The Biden-Pocalypse

[Half Smoke]

I really don't "get" that pick. What does Walz bring to the ticket? VP picks generally add little, but if anything maybe a small bump in their home state if they are popular. Paul Ryan lost not only his home state but also his own district when Romney picked him. That really shows how little it usually matters. So any thought that Walz is going to help in neighboring Wisconsin (like I have heard this morning) seems a stretch to me.

I guess I have to concede that Shapiro being Jewish played a role. There was apparently some pushback by certain parts of the party. Not sure if it was specifically him being Jewish or his very strong support for Israel or even his not having much tolerance for the Israeli War protests, which are all sort of tied together, but certainly as a whole was a factor.

If you were not going to go with Shapiro looking for even a small 1% bump in Pa (which could be the difference), my second pick would have been Kelly. I just don't see what Walz adds. he literally is the generic White guy.

he is from the Midwest (Minnesota) where Kamala's ethnicity might not play well

it is obviously an attempt to shore up support among the more conservative in the Dem party who are most comfortable with white Christian males

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Well I hope it works.

My presidential preference at this point is "anybody but Trump". So I am not specifically huge on Harris. But my wagers, one on Democratic party and one on Harris herself at multiple sportsbooks, were made before Biden dropped out were about hedging opportunities. I should be able hedge the Democratics party bet shortly guaranteeing a win. But the Harris bet is not so cut and dry. If I hedge that with a republican win presidency, I could still lose both if something were to happen to Harris and another democrat win.

THAT is a very unlikely scenario, but when you hedge you are setting up a situation that guarantees a win and I can't do that, so I may have to ride that out and hope for the best or maybe hedge and take my chances. Still figuring that out. But it is definitely not the pure hedge opportunity I first envisioned.

Any suggestions?

I don't get it - what was your bet on the Dem party and how can you guarantee a win on that part of the bet_______?

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[kewlJ]

he is from the Midwest (Minnesota) where Kamala's ethnicity might not play well

it is obviously an attempt to shore up support among the more conservative in the Dem party who are most comfortable with white Christian males

.

Well I hope it works.

My presidential preference at this point is "anybody but Trump". So I am not specifically huge on Harris. But my wagers, one on Democratic party and one on Harris herself at multiple sportsbooks, were made before Biden dropped out were about hedging opportunities. I should be able hedge the Democratics party bet shortly guaranteeing a win. But the Harris bet is not so cut and dry. If I hedge that with a republican win presidency, I could still lose both if something were to happen to Harris and another democrat win.

THAT is a very unlikely scenario, but when you hedge you are setting up a situation that guarantees a win and I can't do that, so I may have to ride that out and hope for the best or maybe hedge and take my chances. Still figuring that out. But it is definitely not the pure hedge opportunity I first envisioned.

Any suggestions?

I don't get it - what was your bet on the Dem party and how can you guarantee a win on that part of the bet_______?

.

Wager #1 was democratic Party to win the presidency @ +240. This was made after the debate when Biden numbers were dropping. I thought the Dems would drop Biden but even if they didn't the race would still tighten come fall with the prospect of electing Trump. It has now tightened to the point that I can wager some money on Republicans winning the presidency and Guarantee a win. But I haven't pulled the trigger yet. still waiting. I guess it doesn't guarantee a win, if Kennedy or another third party were to win, but come on....

Wager #2 was Harris to win the presidency @ +650, made at that same time a couple weeks before Biden dropped out. So I could hedge the other way, with a republican to win bet, but like I said that slim scenario where something happens to Harris (God forbid) and some other Democrat wins, both wagers would lose.

When I made the Harris bet, Newsome was still being talked about as a Biden replacement. I bet Harris strictly because of the money. She would have access to the Biden campaign money, staff and offices, where as anyone else picked like Newsome, wouldn't.

Edit: I think I may have incorrectly stated that the Harris wager was to win the democratic Nomination. I wish it was, but that was not the wager. In my mind if she became the democratic Nominee, the race would tighten (which it has) and I would be able to hedge. So I phrased that wrong. My apologies. Boy I wish it was though.

[Half Smoke]

Well I hope it works.

My presidential preference at this point is "anybody but Trump". So I am not specifically huge on Harris. But my wagers, one on Democratic party and one on Harris herself at multiple sportsbooks, were made before Biden dropped out were about hedging opportunities. I should be able hedge the Democratics party bet shortly guaranteeing a win. But the Harris bet is not so cut and dry. If I hedge that with a republican win presidency, I could still lose both if something were to happen to Harris and another democrat win.

THAT is a very unlikely scenario, but when you hedge you are setting up a situation that guarantees a win and I can't do that, so I may have to ride that out and hope for the best or maybe hedge and take my chances. Still figuring that out. But it is definitely not the pure hedge opportunity I first envisioned.

Any suggestions?

I don't get it - what was your bet on the Dem party and how can you guarantee a win on that part of the bet_______?

.

Wager #1 was democratic Party to win the presidency @ +240. This was made after the debate when Biden numbers were dropping. I thought the Dems would drop Biden but even if they didn't the race would still tighten come fall with the prospect of electing Trump. It has now tightened to the point that I can wager some money on Republicans winning the presidency and Guarantee a win. But I haven't pulled the trigger yet. still waiting. I guess it doesn't guarantee a win, if Kennedy or another third party were to win, but come on....

Wager #2 was Harris to win @ +650, made at that same time a couple weeks before Biden dropped out. So I could hedge the other way, with a republican to win bet, but like I said that slim scenario where something happens to Harris (God forbid) and some other Democrat wins, both wagers would lose.

When I made the Harris bet, Newsome was still being talked about as a Biden replacement. I bet Harris strictly because of the money. She would have access to the Biden campaign money, staff and offices, where as anyone else picked like Newsome, wouldn't.

very, very unlikely that a third party could win or that something will cause Harris to drop out

I guess it all boils down to if you would rather have the pretty strong possibility of a very big win or a tiny win guaranteed - and if it was me I couldn't stomach betting on T - I dislike him so much - I wouldn't bet on him even if I was sure he would win

so, if it was me I would go for the big win on Harris and the Dem party - but I wouldn't know how to mathematically analyze the 2 choices - maybe some could do something along those lines

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[kewlJ]

I guess it all boils down to if you would rather have the pretty strong possibility of a very big win or a tiny win guaranteed
.

Isn't that always the case with a hedge? I generally don't play the hedge game. But if you make a wager with the intent to later hedge, guaranteeing a win, that initial wager is almost assuredly much more than you would have been comfortable wagering otherwise. And that is the case here. I made these wagers, with the intent to hedge and guarantee or all but guarantee a profit. i don't know, it really isn't huge money. I might just take a shot with Harris.

[Half Smoke]

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that's really great that you got the Dems at +240 and Harris at +650 when Biden was looking terrible - very, very sharp - I'm impressed

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[kewlJ]

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that's really great that you got the Dems at +240 and Harris at +650 when Biden was looking terrible - very, very sharp - I'm impressed -

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well dont be. Harris was@ +900 just a few days after I placed my bet.

[Rob.Singer]

100% lock: kew will kill himself FOR REAL this time when Donald Trump wins. He'll get his whining in about the popular vote vs. the Electoral College and all that. But he will finally end his suffering and constant forum humiliation on that glorious day.

And V may very well join him. Oregon libtards will never be missed....and he knows it.

It will be a beautiful thing.

[monet]