very, very unlikely that a third party could win or that something will cause Harris to drop outOriginally Posted by kewlJ
Wager #1 was democratic Party to win the presidency @ +240. This was made after the debate when Biden numbers were dropping. I thought the Dems would drop Biden but even if they didn't the race would still tighten come fall with the prospect of electing Trump. It has now tightened to the point that I can wager some money on Republicans winning the presidency and Guarantee a win. But I haven't pulled the trigger yet. still waiting. I guess it doesn't guarantee a win, if Kennedy or another third party were to win, but come on....Originally Posted by Half SmokeI don't get it - what was your bet on the Dem party and how can you guarantee a win on that part of the bet_______?Originally Posted by kewlJ
Well I hope it works.
My presidential preference at this point is "anybody but Trump". So I am not specifically huge on Harris. But my wagers, one on Democratic party and one on Harris herself at multiple sportsbooks, were made before Biden dropped out were about hedging opportunities. I should be able hedge the Democratics party bet shortly guaranteeing a win. But the Harris bet is not so cut and dry. If I hedge that with a republican win presidency, I could still lose both if something were to happen to Harris and another democrat win.
THAT is a very unlikely scenario, but when you hedge you are setting up a situation that guarantees a win and I can't do that, so I may have to ride that out and hope for the best or maybe hedge and take my chances. Still figuring that out. But it is definitely not the pure hedge opportunity I first envisioned.
Any suggestions?
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Wager #2 was Harris to win @ +650, made at that same time a couple weeks before Biden dropped out. So I could hedge the other way, with a republican to win bet, but like I said that slim scenario where something happens to Harris (God forbid) and some other Democrat wins, both wagers would lose.
When I made the Harris bet, Newsome was still being talked about as a Biden replacement. I bet Harris strictly because of the money. She would have access to the Biden campaign money, staff and offices, where as anyone else picked like Newsome, wouldn't.
I guess it all boils down to if you would rather have the pretty strong possibility of a very big win or a tiny win guaranteed - and if it was me I couldn't stomach betting on T - I dislike him so much - I wouldn't bet on him even if I was sure he would win
so, if it was me I would go for the big win on Harris and the Dem party - but I wouldn't know how to mathematically analyze the 2 choices - maybe some could do something along those lines
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