Dan Druff's 2024-25 NFL picks

[Dan Druff]

Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Lost by 0.5 points.

Today:

Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams

Probably firing Jets on Monday too.

[redietz]

Lost by 0.5 points.

Today:

Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams

Probably firing Jets on Monday too.

Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.

I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.

[The Boz]

Lost by 0.5 points.

Today:

Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams

Probably firing Jets on Monday too.

Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.

I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.

Interesting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?

Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.

[redietz]

Lost by 0.5 points.

Today:

Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams

Probably firing Jets on Monday too.

Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.

I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.

Interesting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?

Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.

One thing I got dead right was Stroud. Prior to the 2023 draft, when asked who was the best potential NFL QB out of the last couple of years of rookies, I unhesitatingly said Stroud. I have some friends who play high stakes fantasy, and they consult me (in a sometimes comprehensive and detail-oriented fashion). I told them to draft Stroud. It's from watching so much college football. Some QBs are stat mirages; some are not.

None of the rookies are going to burn it up anything like Stroud. Not close. If one of them puts up two-thirds of his numbers, I'll be surprised. Nix can play, especially for a bad team, but he's basically Marcus Mariota 2.

[redietz]

I don't have some formal system, Boz. It's just something I've noticed over the years as a caveat. Basically, it goes something like this. If more people make a lot more money if A happens than if B, then I do my best to not bet B unless absolutely necessary.

[Dan Druff]

1-1-1 on those games

Tennessee blew 17-0 lead, sadly

Seattle was behind at 1H but got ahead 13, then gave up a late TD, and as redietz said, I could have had a better line (though it was 6 for a long time)

Detroit pick was lucky. Down 20-17, they got a final seconds FG, then won flip, then scored TD due to mostly short rushes.

[Dan Druff]

I was going to bet Jets but dragged, and now McCaffery is officially out. Line dropped. Still like it.

Jets +158 at SF

[The Boz]

I was going to bet Jets but dragged, and now McCaffery is officially out. Line dropped. Still like it.

Jets +158 at SF

8 scoring drives for SF, yea that wasn’t good for the Jets. But at least Chrissy Mitchell was there to enjoy the game.

[Dan Druff]

Seattle -3 -110 at New England

[Dan Druff]

Philadelphia vs Atlanta - Under 45.5 -105

[Dan Druff]

Cleveland vs Giants - Under 38.5 -110
Carolina +215 at Vegas

[Half Smoke]

.
nice picks Dan - 3 wins in a row

actually equal to a little more than 4 in a row ats in terms of dollars won due to your gutsy pick on the Panthers

maybe a crushing year for you like you've had in the past

.

[Half Smoke]

.
an early under pick for week 4
Commanders/Cardinals u 49.5_________the highest total for the week
Commanders are averaging 20.5 - Cardinals 27.3
but the Cardinals only scored 13 yesterday - glta

.

[Half Smoke]

.
sorry Dan - didn't mean to put my pick in your thread (above) - it's a dupe by mistake

please delete that one and this one too - too late for me to edit - thanks

[Dan Druff]

Chicago -3 -108 vs Rams
Atlanta -2.5 -110 vs New Orleans
Pittsburgh vs Indy - Under 40.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

1-2, winning only Chicago. Atlanta pick lost by 0.5.

----

Tonight

Miami -2.5 -115 vs Tennessee
Miami/Tenn - Under 38 -110

[Dan Druff]

Dog Sunday:

Carolina +175 at Chicago
NY Jets +120 vs Minnesota (London)
Cincinnati +125 vs Baltimore

Bonus:
Seattle -7 -115 vs NY Giants

[Dan Druff]

One more:

Jacksonvillle -3 -120 vs Indy

[redietz]

Dog Sunday:

Carolina +175 at Chicago
NY Jets +120 vs Minnesota (London)
Cincinnati +125 vs Baltimore

Bonus:
Seattle -7 -115 vs NY Giants

I have to mention this, as Carolina cost me big time, but not in the usual way. I played some Fan Duel teams and used a Burrow/Chase combo, which scored through the roof. Unfortunately, to make the salary cap, I chose the Carolina defense, which scored a ... hold the applause ... minus three. LOL. Mother fucker.

That defensive performance cost me thousands, as I also had the (cheap) Carolina back, who had a good day. I had what amounted to an all star squad with that Carolina defense. I netted a grand total of about a hundred bucks. I needed anything but a minus three. That is so bad, it's funny.

I would not have won mega-money because Jackson also had a killer day, and many folks had him, but I would have won a fair amount playing $9 teams. That is the third time in my life I had awesome teams and scored negative with a defense. Just goddawful.