Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Redietz once said his lifetime batting average against the spread is 57%. I think that would be about a 9% earn on -110 betting.

This is the part I don't get. If someone can REALLY pick winners at 57% consistently, they can make a lot of money. What do they need 'clients' for?

What is the final line in the movie Casino? Rosenthal says something like "in the end I was right back where I started. I could always pick winners". If you can pick winners, you pick winners. Everything else just complicates it with more hands in the cookie jar.

The one thing I learned from Red was about all the contests and stuff. I had no idea. There is definitely hidden EV in playing these contests for players that are good sports handicappers. But I just don't get this client stuff. Red will call me stupid and that is fine. I never claimed to be an expert in sports betting. Just trying to pick up a few things along the way that can result in some +Ev plays, especially after the bonuses dry up.

With a 9% edge and kelly betting a 100 unit bankroll will turn into a 200 unit bankroll in just 10 bets, a 300 unit bankroll in just 15 bets, a million dollar bankroll in just 41 bets. Of course these are averages.

Using a conservative half kelly would take just twice as many bets.

If you bet other people's money for a 10% take you are cutting your edge to less than 1%. So no, it don't make sense to make other people money when you can make it all for yourself at a very fast pace using kelly. That is, if you are a 57% college football handicapper.

I've never seen redietz write about kelly betting much less whether he used it or not. He definitely SHOULD HAVE used it.