Bob Dietz' Coming Appeararance On PokerFraudAlert Radio

[TheGrimReaper]

You shouldn't apply the math of random events to non-random events as a strategy for investment.

The Kelly criterion requires accurate probability values, which isn't always possible for real-world event outcomes. When a gambler overestimates their true probability of winning, the criterion value calculated will diverge from the optimal, increasing the risk of ruin.

I thought everybody here already knew that.

Wait until you hear about this concept called fractional kelly to deal with that. Mind-bottling.

I thought that all of the resident mathematicians here already knew of, and understood, the (Frankish) "flaw" with Kelly. Ha.


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