Bob Dietz' Coming Appeararance On PokerFraudAlert Radio

[TheGrimReaper]

You shouldn't apply the math of random events to non-random events as a strategy for investment.

The Kelly criterion requires accurate probability values, which isn't always possible for real-world event outcomes. When a gambler overestimates their true probability of winning, the criterion value calculated will diverge from the optimal, increasing the risk of ruin.

I thought everybody here already knew that.

Wait until you hear about this concept called fractional kelly to deal with that. Mind-bottling.

I thought that all of the resident mathematicians here already knew of, and understood, the (Frankish) "flaw" with Kelly. Ha.


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[AxelWolf]

And coach, I know what Kelly Criterion is, for God's sake. No need to concern yourself. I think Kelly is a good idea for random-event gambling. For real-world events, unless you're an idiot, it's no better than just stating, "My opinion is" or "I prefer to do" whatever.

Perhaps you can enlighten us on Kelly, then. I understand that Kelly shouldn't be used on things with a predetermined outcome, but picking football games ATS, even when using handicapping skills(in your case, you claim 56%), is random enough to use some version of Kelly.

I assume stock market picking isn't random by skilled investors, but some of those investors apply Kelly.

It's said that Warren Buffett uses a version of Kelly investing, as well as Ed Thorp and Bill Gross. <<<Idiots?

I would think that if you know you have an edge in college football betting (if you're 56% is true), that would be a perfect situation to use some version of Kelly.

[Kim Lee]

a paper that appeared in The Skeptic criticizing the idea of a "hot hand" in basketball ... [by] An Ivy League prof.

it's sad when white dudes take Asian names for gravitas.

You are too lazy to read primary sources and too vague to even cite your secondary source. I provided the Wikipedia article with the link to the primary Gilovich-Tversky paper and Miller-Sanjurjo's Econometrica correction that says "Upon correcting for the bias we find that the long-standing conclusions of the canonical study are reversed."

Kim Lee is not an Asian name. As a professor at multiple Ivy League universities, I used it for anonymity, not gravitas.

You spent four decades handicapping when you could get enough free cash coupons in Vegas to buy $1.00 bacon and eggs breakfast, $2.49 steak and eggs lunch, $7.95 stead dinner, 50-cent beer and 99-cent shrimp cocktail. And you were supported by your wife!

https://web.archive.org/web/20000229...dvisor.com:80/

You wrote about netting 10-15 games per season in college football plus customer fees. In the remaining 9 months of the year, you could have bet the best picks from your tout buddies or god-forbid worked a job. You should have bet a few dimes per game like me and easily grown a $500k bankroll.

My grinder friends like KewlJ moved to Vegas, accumulated significant bankrolls, and bought homes. You beat one sport in the 1980's, betting .7% of your meager bankroll.

[accountinquestion]

people insist on importing the math of random events and applying it to what are clearly non-random events?

It does not matter if it's a random or non-random event; if you are achieving a 56% ATS on average, you can use Kelly.

Yikes, Redietz does not understand the math of Kelly betting. He calls it "blackjack math" because he has not even read the original papers of Kelly and Breiman that have no content about blackjack. FWIW, Ed Thorp told me that his colleague Claude Shannon was the referee for Kelly's paper. Then Thorp popularized it in Beat The Dealer.

If you don't understand the basic math of gambling then you probably won't succeed in getting an advantage. If you don't understand Kelly math after 40 years then you are not inquisitive enough to win.

Yep. Redietz hangs on to his beliefs like few. It is more important to him to feel he has always been right. It is pointless to talk to him about it.

[AxelWolf]

. As someone with an Asian significant other,

I thought you said your GF was from a Mob family here in Las Vegas?

I guess the Asian Mob.

Asian chicks are popular with Advantage Players and sports who can't get American chicks easily. Asian chicks tend to care less about physical appearances, strange quirks, nerdy aspects, and oddballness, and they often love gambling.

[Kim Lee]

Redietz hangs on to his beliefs like few. It is more important to him to feel he has always been right. It is pointless to talk to him about it.

Redietz has been insufferably spamming forums about his sports gambling experience since at least 2011. https://lvadvice.com/forum/index.php?topic=925.0

The idiot teases totals. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...ng-with-style/

[DGenBen]

. As someone with an Asian significant other,

I thought you said your GF was from a Mob family here in Las Vegas?

I guess the Asian Mob.

Asian chicks are popular with Advantage Players and sports who can't get American chicks easily. Asian chicks tend to care less about physical appearances, strange quirks, nerdy aspects, and oddballness, and they often love gambling.

Asian chicks are also great in the sack. In fact if I had to break it down I would say best in sack: 1. Asian chicks, 2. Latinas, 3. White chicks who smoke, 4. Black chicks, 5. White chicks who don’t smoke.

Of course results can vary greatly by individual woman, but just generally speaking….

[MisterV]

Asian chicks are also great in the sack. In fact if I had to break it down I would say best in sack: 1. Asian chicks, 2. Latinas, 3. White chicks who smoke, 4. Black chicks, 5. White chicks who don’t smoke.

Whoa, sounds like you're an equal opportunity fornicator, sampling ALL the wares out there.

Nothing wrong with that.

When you say that Asian chicks are best, what criteria do you use to grade the contestants?

[TheGrimReaper]

When you say that Asian chicks are best, what criteria do you use to grade the contestants?

--->

Air route authority between the United States and China.

Chattering Courtesans and Other Sardonic Sketches.

https://anagram-solver.net/When%20yo...s?partial=true


Well, the thus solver confirmed Ben's first choice, and, next, went on to elaborate a bit, as prostitutes. Ha.

Makes up for the cute thus solution I had for the dummy Redietz confession thread, earlier today, but, old man Dan quickly cleared it out. First line about journalists, and, the last, about Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, which was even more fitting after Dan 86'ed it.

Getting even spookier! Stand by.

[MDawg]

I don't particularly like Asian girls because they tend to be too mercenary. Had a few Asian girlfriends nonetheless but by numbers would represent less than a drop in my bucket.

Naturally within a group of guys there will be discussions of "what girls are the best", but of more interest might be how someone could get to UNKewlJ's age and be so vapid with close to zero life experience, which explains the sociopathic lying and concocted internet life, but still, is there anyone on these forums nearly as one dimensional?

THAT'S how things really work.

[DGenBen]

Asian chicks are also great in the sack. In fact if I had to break it down I would say best in sack: 1. Asian chicks, 2. Latinas, 3. White chicks who smoke, 4. Black chicks, 5. White chicks who don’t smoke.

Whoa, sounds like you're an equal opportunity fornicator, sampling ALL the wares out there.

Nothing wrong with that.

When you say that Asian chicks are best, what criteria do you use to grade the contestants?

No particular tangible objective criteria.

I would say it’s based solely on the level of fun.

[mickeycrimm]

I never declined, mickey. Sorry, man. Good try, though. The gist of the issue with GWAE was that evidently Dancer wasn't a fan of my sarcasm regarding "APs.". Who knew? I'm such a gracious dude and all that.

Tell you what, mickey. I'll shoot Munchkin an email this weekend quoting you and offering to be on the show in clear terms. Howzabout that?

Munchkin and my superior half have some old familial ties, and I am not going to comment further. You can ask him about that.

Redietz above post was in response to this post by me:

"For someone that loves to call others liars....you have somewhat of an affinity for prevarication yourself. So you are hoping to get her together with Munchkin sometime soon?

When I inquired thru DM as to why you hadn't appeared on GWAE or Life's a Gamble, Mr. Munchkin's reply was, and this is the exact quote:

'I asked him about coming on the show and he declined. I also asked for his wife to come on and I guess she is more private than he is.'"

And my response to redietz was posting a pic of the messaging between Munchkin and I on Twitter. Pic below. To which there was a response that it's possible the pic was fake. If I were to put up a fake pic I wouldn't do it on something that could be so easily disproven. The date of Munchkin's message, 9 May 2024, is in the pic. Redietz said he would contact Munchkin about my quote. So all he has to do is get Munchkin to verify if that message was his or not. It would take Munchkin less than a minute to verify what he wrote to me on that date. It will appear exactly the same on his computer as mine.

Others may want verification that Munchkin's message to me is real. But redietz doesn't. He knows he's been caught again. Consequently, you won't hear anything more from him on this issue. That's his modus operandi when he gets himself trapped. He will Ignore it and hope it goes away.

[TheGrimReaper]

Asian chicks are also great in the sack. In fact if I had to break it down I would say best in sack: 1. Asian chicks, 2. Latinas, 3. White chicks who smoke, 4. Black chicks, 5. White chicks who don’t smoke.

Whoa, sounds like you're an equal opportunity fornicator, sampling ALL the wares out there.

Nothing wrong with that.

When you say that Asian chicks are best, what criteria do you use to grade the contestants?

No particular tangible objective criteria.

I would say it’s based solely on the level of fun.

And, we all know where a bit of such fun leads. Ha.

Chinese girls/women

Couple years ago, I met a Chinese girl. Very cute, smart, and more affectionate than I've ever experienced. We married, got a kid, and everything seemed fine.

She was always a bit controlling and entitled, but that was fine with me. I brought it up once in a while, when she demanded something extreme, and it never became an issue. And then it started to get worse. Within a year, she dominated every aspect of my life, she told me how to dress, what to eat, which friends I had, and even made me cut out family members, including my dying father.

I couldn't bring it up; she'd just block me, become either non-emotional or over-the-top emotional. She even hit me, several times. I asked for relationship therapy, and she agreed. The next six months were an exercise in futility; everything was my fault, I had to do better, and so forth. I asked what I should do better, and she'd just repeat things that happened before with frightening inaccuracy. I thought it was me who was misremembering.

Then, suddenly, she took my car, and left. She's now suing for custody of our child, since I am "dangerously unhinged" and "violent". I, on the other hand, am in therapy, and got the diagnosis PTSD and narcissistic victim syndrome.

I thought "Wow, I must have exquisite bad luck".

And then my therapist got me in a group of 22 male victims of narcissists. Turns out that 19 had a Chinese wife or girlfriend. I reached out to the other men I know with a Chinese wife (I met quite a few through my wife). I made contact with six, and three are now in custody battles of their own. Number seven killed himself a few months back, when he lost his house, child, and job.

Just to be clear; the single best romantic relationship I know is between a Chinese woman and a non-Chinese man, as is the runner up. But they now appear like the exception, or it's like Chinese women only exist on the extremes of the spectrum.

Can anyone offer any insight in this?

Best to stick to the anagrams.

https://anagram-solver.net/Woe%20is%....?partial=true

[accountinquestion]

I never declined, mickey. Sorry, man. Good try, though. The gist of the issue with GWAE was that evidently Dancer wasn't a fan of my sarcasm regarding "APs.". Who knew? I'm such a gracious dude and all that.

Tell you what, mickey. I'll shoot Munchkin an email this weekend quoting you and offering to be on the show in clear terms. Howzabout that?

Munchkin and my superior half have some old familial ties, and I am not going to comment further. You can ask him about that.

Redietz above post was in response to this post by me:

"For someone that loves to call others liars....you have somewhat of an affinity for prevarication yourself. So you are hoping to get her together with Munchkin sometime soon?

When I inquired thru DM as to why you hadn't appeared on GWAE or Life's a Gamble, Mr. Munchkin's reply was, and this is the exact quote:

'I asked him about coming on the show and he declined. I also asked for his wife to come on and I guess she is more private than he is.'"

And my response to redietz was posting a pic of the messaging between Munchkin and I on Twitter. Pic below. To which there was a response that it's possible the pic was fake. If I were to put up a fake pic I wouldn't do it on something that could be so easily disproven. The date of Munchkin's message, 9 May 2024, is in the pic. Redietz said he would contact Munchkin about my quote. So all he has to do is get Munchkin to verify if that message was his or not. It would take Munchkin less than a minute to verify what he wrote to me on that date. It will appear exactly the same on his computer as mine.

Others may want verification that Munchkin's message to me is real. But redietz doesn't. He knows he's been caught again. Consequently, you won't hear anything more from him on this issue. That's his modus operandi when he gets himself trapped. He will Ignore it and hope it goes away.

And to be clear - the reason he wants everyone's info is so he can threaten to dox or worse. His I know mafia shtick doesn't work if he doesn't know who you are. He even tried this with Kim Lee with his "I know who you are".

Funnily enough grabbed a criminal law book off gfs pile and opened to a random page. The whole case was about all these Chinese Wongs and the prof liked to make racist jokes.

But yea redietz is a hustler plain and simple. I feel like it has become quite obvious. He could have just not picked stupid arguments with decent APs. And while the APs may know little about sports - they do understand the meta of it all.

[kewlJ]

And to be clear - the reason he wants everyone's info is so he can threaten to dox or worse.

here was Red's threat to me last fall.

I am so goddamn sick of you, kewlJ. You said, "Sounds like BS as Trump hasn't been even money for months." As if you, some anonymous internet maroon who spews bullshit left and right regarding damned near everything, knows what the odds have been with your omniscient scouting.

Instead of coming to the conclusion that maybe the guy who has gambled on offshore sites for more years than you've been alive is correct, you decide that it sounds like BS. This from the guy who fakes his own death and makes shit up every other post.

Put up some fucking money on that BS crack or say, "I was fucking wrong and have too big a mouth for my wallet." Or I swear I will track your ass down, and you will wish you were in the South Point backroom again.

And unlike Rob or MDawg, I will track you down. Bet on it.

[kewlJ]

I am not going to keep piling on Redietz. I think everything that need be said has been said, by many parties. I think everyone has drawn their own conclusions by now. I do think an interview with Druff or Munchkin would have been helpful. But it became pretty apparent early on Red was never going to do so, despite his saying that he would on this forum.

In the end, don't need that interview. There are just too many inconsistencies and things that don't add up. The "EV" comments. The "anonymous" comments. A guy claiming to be a professional sports handicapper/bettor, that doesn't even understand the math involved with what he is claiming. And the final straw, just like Mdawg and Singer, the vicious nasty attacks of anyone that doubts him.

In conclusion, I know the thread and post made yesterday with an admission was a fake post/thread. I knew it the second I saw it because Red would never come clean like that. And I don't approve of the impersonator type post. But it really was spot on in almost every aspect. I think that post thread was probably 90% correct.

I guess one key moment for me was when I asked Red what kind of money he made (average) per year and he didn't answer. I guess he could have lied and come up with a figure. But the reason I asked is because I just don't believe Bob Dietz made much money doing what he claims. he may have made some, but not what he sort of leads us to believe. Shades of the late Moses, who for a decade claimed to be a professional blackjack player playing Reno and on his deathbed confessed that he made about 100k over 10 years. 10k a year is NOT a professional blackjack player. And I have a feeling Reds situation is similar.

Anyway, for me, this is the end of the Redietz, 40 years professional sports better, with the high IQ that is better and smarter than everyone else. Final word: Tout.

[MDawg]

But regardless, you can't make physical threats. There has to be a line. Free speech does NOT mean free speach

And if we have to take this off forums to settle in a physical manner, we can do that also.

People have a problem with you primarily because you’re as big of a self righteous hypocrite as there is in this world.

[MisterV]

I am not going to keep piling on Redietz. I think everything that need be said has been said, by many parties. I think everyone has drawn their own conclusions by now. I do think an interview with Druff or Munchkin would have been helpful. But it became pretty apparent early on Red was never going to do so, despite his saying that he would on this forum.

While I may have lost track a bit as to who said what, IIRC redietz said he'd participate and Dan Druff said he'd get back to him to schedule a show.

And that's the last of it.

Assuming my belief is correct, did Dan get back to redietz and try to schedule a show and did redietz decline?

[kewlJ]

Assuming my belief is correct, did Dan get back to redietz and try to schedule a show and did redietz decline?

I am not privy to all that, but it is my understanding that Red was saying yes, he was interested in interviews on this forum and then behind the scenes in private communications with the parties that would be doing the interview, saying no, no no. We Know this because mickeycrimm posted where Munchkin said as much.

Bottom line: If Red wanted such an interview to occur, it would have occured by now. Long ago actually.

[coach belly]

Others may want verification that Munchkin's message to me is real.

Do they want verification that you received a message from Munchkin, or that the claim contained within that message is truthful?

redietz didn't call you a liar in so many words, or in any words. Harping on about this makes you look paranoid and defensive.

If we stipulate that your photo is proof of Munchkin's message, then there is claim by Munchkin, which has been refuted by redietz.

If there is no further comment from Munchkin, then there's no point in redietz continuing to comment either.