Objective proof?

[mickeycrimm]

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

Well for the six teamer I'm getting a figure similar to the 7,8, and 9 teamers Mickey - about 30% for this one also: (28.6%). 100*(45/63)=71.4%. 100%-71.4% gives 28.6% for the six teamer book edge. I'm not a sports book bettor so maybe I'm missing something and I apologize in advance if my six teamer figure is off. Monet, due to your prowess, you may need to have your wife,friends and relatives start getting your action in at the books, since if they identify you as a sharp you will have trouble getting your bets down for significant money I would think. You're on the front line so you would know best, but just throwing that out there as an armchair quarterback.

I used Monet's posted numbers:

6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1

I thought it was unusual that the 6 team showed just 14% while the others showed close to 30%. My calculator had a brain fart and I didn't catch it. Sorry.

[tableplay]

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

Well for the six teamer I'm getting a figure similar to the 7,8, and 9 teamers Mickey - about 30% for this one also: (28.6%). 100*(45/63)=71.4%. 100%-71.4% gives 28.6% for the six teamer book edge. I'm not a sports book bettor so maybe I'm missing something and I apologize in advance if my six teamer figure is off. Monet, due to your prowess, you may need to have your wife,friends and relatives start getting your action in at the books, since if they identify you as a sharp you will have trouble getting your bets down for significant money I would think. You're on the front line so you would know best, but just throwing that out there as an armchair quarterback.

I used Monet's posted numbers:

6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1

I thought it was unusual that the 6 team showed just 14% while the others showed close to 30%. My calculator had a brain fart and I didn't catch it. Sorry.

It's nothing Mickey, and I'm glad that there is a parlay discussion here since it's interesting stuff.

[monet]

It's nothing Mickey, and I'm glad that there is a parlay discussion here since it's interesting stuff.

I forgot to mention about this guy winning 10 Million Dollars a couple years back betting the MLB World Series all over town.
The Wynn took a bunch of his action giving him 5000 dollar tickets.
He never lost a game.
The Wynn claimed they liked their position in many of the games.
Nobody 86'd him from betting but that doesn't mean one of these bastards like William Hill, Stations, The Golden Nugget or Fucking Gaughan wouldn't hesitate to pull something like that.
But I think the larger books like MGM and the Wynn would be happy to take all bets.
Circa seems serious in allowing Large Sports Wagers.
I've never seen them blink yet and their shift managers take a different approach when you win large bets.
They genuinely seem happy that someone cashed a large ticket and beat these bastards.
They also don't make a big deal about it.
No Bullshit small talk or congratulations... they just hand you your money.
And the ticket writers don't seem to expect a tip.
Hell... I never even had them ask me for ID once or sign any paperwork.
They do have my ID on file though as you need a players card to bet over a grand in any book in this town.
Refreshing but Odd.
Like I said before, if you want to do something like The Ditz you can use the kiosk for tickets winning under 1000 dollars.
You can run all over town, all day long betting up to 1000 dollars but that gets old real quick.
Heck, just running the 10 Casino Gauntlet downtown gets old real fast betting 900+ in every book.
Not that I would ever do such a thing.

Win 8 grand at William Hill and they scramble around like cockroaches paying you in 20 dollar bills.
Win 6 grand at Boulder Station and they act like you just predicted the second coming.
Sunset Station is a nightmare with their host and management.
It's like they don't want to be associated with Stations.
They act all superior and independent.
Whatever.

[tableplay]

It's nothing Mickey, and I'm glad that there is a parlay discussion here since it's interesting stuff.

I forgot to mention about this guy winning 10 Million Dollars a couple years back betting the MLB World Series all over town.
The Wynn took a bunch of his action giving him 5000 dollar tickets.
He never lost a game.
The Wynn claimed they liked their position in many of the games.
Nobody 86'd him from betting but that doesn't mean one of these bastards like William Hill, Stations, The Golden Nugget or Fucking Gaughan wouldn't hesitate to pull something like that.
But I think the larger books like MGM and the Wynn would be happy to take all bets.
Circa seems serious in allowing Large Sports Wagers.
I've never seen them blink yet and their shift managers take a different approach when you win large bets.
They genuinely seem happy that someone cashed a large ticket and beat these bastards.
They also don't make a big deal about it.
No Bullshit small talk or congratulations... they just hand you your money.
And the ticket writers don't seem to expect a tip.
Hell... I never even had them ask me for ID once or sign any paperwork.
They do have my ID on file though as you need a players card to bet over a grand in any book in this town.
Refreshing but Odd.
Like I said before, if you want to do something like The Ditz you can use the kiosk for tickets winning under 1000 dollars.
You can run all over town, all day long betting up to 1000 dollars but that gets old real quick.
Heck, just running the 10 Casino Gauntlet downtown gets old real fast betting 900+ in every book.
Not that I would ever do such a thing.

Win 8 grand at William Hill and they scramble around like cockroaches paying you in 20 dollar bills.
Win 6 grand at Boulder Station and they act like you just predicted the second coming.
Sunset Station is a nightmare with their host and management.
It's like they don't want to be associated with Stations.
They act all superior and independent.
Whatever.

Thanks Monet, great story of the 10M winner and breakdown of the Vegas sportsbetting scene.

[monet]

Thanks Monet, great story of the 10M winner and breakdown of the Vegas sportsbetting scene.

Oh Shit they are going WILD in Minnesota!!
Now 5-2!!
Shout Now... Shout Now... Hey hey hey Hey!!
soxfan approves.

[Rob.Singer]

Watching the unraveling of kew after a few well-placed words makes me appear like a world class surgeon ��

Now redietz is my expert? Yikes! Let's hope he left his colonoscopy equipment in that Boeing exec's apartment. But he's also deliberately acting obtuse. While I don't begrudge him for not pointing out what a babbling idiot kew is for sucking up to someone who won big on a -EV bet....WAIT A MINUTE!.... I mean, while I don't begrudge him for needing to keep on reading my Undeniable Truth GT columns year after year, his inability to recognize, that by keeping my weekly column in-line with how I wrote it during the years prior to playing the DU glitch, this "hiding in plain sight" approach that I took, well, it fooled even an expert like him!

I, and I'm sure I'm not alone, am impressed with monet's capabilities in betting NHL games. Even more astounding is his no-BS approach in posting his picks PRIOR to the games being played. Redietz---are you paying attention yet??

[regnis]

Monet--my hero!!!

[monet]

Todays current 5 Picks...

St. Louis Cardinals Cover with a score of 4-2.
One Down... Four to go but the Blue Jays struck back negating our 3 run Astro lead.
Kraken just scored so the WILD are still up 6-3.
Braves up in the 8th 3-0.
Not looking bad... I've seen worse starts.
Getting ready to watch the Capitals take care of business.

[MisterV]

I, and I'm sure I'm not alone, am impressed with monet's capabilities in betting NHL games. Even more astounding is his no-BS approach in posting his picks PRIOR to the games being played.

True 'dat.

[monet]

Braves win 3-0
WILD win 6-3
That's 3 out of 5 in the clubhouse.
I'll most likely need the Astros to hit a 2 run walk off homer or better.
As long as the Capitals cover I'll still end up winning 1100.
If not... oh well... you can't win them all.

Even though I picked the OVER on the Philly game I didn't bet it at all so it counts as a pick but not a bet for me.

[soxfan]

I gotta say it's quite the thing for a cat to come over the top make the claim that he eye-ball 18 y-o on a bounce at the dices table. I'm sure that claim got the ap-wiseguy, and mathite on the wizard forum all rile up, hey hey!

[monet]

I want to clarify my statement since kewlJ shown some interest.
If you can pick 55% against the -110 line you will destroy parlays.
That is a mathematical fact and you will do better in the long run compared to straight bets against the -110 line.
Therefore, if you pick Even Money or Plus bets you do not have to pick as high as 55% anymore.
If that statement is wrong it certainly would not take much to disprove it.

Now for the math experts like tableplay and MC.
How does the math change if you have a 6 teamer but you know for a fact that one team will win making your parlay into a virtual 5 teamer that pays 110 to 1?
Of course this is all theoretical bullshit but since tableplay showed some interest in parlay discussion I thought this might be an alternate avenue to pursue.
Of course the 110 to 1 payout will always change depending on the line of the teams picked off the board on the parlay, so it might be better to work off of all teams at the -110 bet for MatH PurPoSeS.
The problem with that is that I would not value a 6 team all -110 parlay bet near as much.
You're basically talking the NFL with that -110 scenario.

And I want to make it clear.
I'm not in here like other players or members claiming some bullshit against math.
I post picks.
I bet picks.
I live with the results.

And remember... these numbers are parlays against all teams at -110
6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1

Fuck... what do I know... I know nothing... I'm a Fucking Idiot... E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk

[redietz]

A couple of things:

1) If you win 55% of your wagers long term, you destroy books...period.
2) When you try to compare straight betting to parlay betting, you have to take into account that the parlay betting, unless open, does not get optimal numbers (unless you are doing a time-staggered, middle shooting or "old numbers" protocol on parlay CARDS). That lack of optimal numbers has a cost. The cost varies by sport. It can cost you 1 game in 20-some or 1 game in 40-some. But it does have a cost that must be estimated and factored in.

[tableplay]

I want to clarify my statement since kewlJ shown some interest.
If you can pick 55% against the -110 line you will destroy parlays.
That is a mathematical fact and you will do better in the long run compared to straight bets against the -110 line.
Therefore, if you pick Even Money or Plus bets you do not have to pick as high as 55% anymore.
If that statement is wrong it certainly would not take much to disprove it.

Now for the math experts like tableplay and MC.
How does the math change if you have a 6 teamer but you know for a fact that one team will win making your parlay into a virtual 5 teamer that pays 110 to 1?
Of course this is all theoretical bullshit but since tableplay showed some interest in parlay discussion I thought this might be an alternate avenue to pursue.
Of course the 110 to 1 payout will always change depending on the line of the teams picked off the board on the parlay, so it might be better to work off of all teams at the -110 bet for MatH PurPoSeS.
The problem with that is that I would not value a 6 team all -110 parlay bet near as much.
You're basically talking the NFL with that -110 scenario.

And I want to make it clear.
I'm not in here like other players or members claiming some bullshit against math.
I post picks.
I bet picks.
I live with the results.

And remember... these numbers are parlays against all teams at -110
6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1

Fuck... what do I know... I know nothing... I'm a Fucking Idiot... E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk

Exclude the locked team and generate the 5 team parlay true odds without making the actual 5 team parlay bet. Then take that true odds number from the 5 teamer (the sans-locked-team fiver) and compare it against the 110-1 the casino pays for the original 6 teamer parlay that contains the lock along with the other 5 teams in the parlay. So for example, if the true odds for the 5 teamer parlay was 30 to 1, the edge would be:
100%+(100*30/110)=127%. Meaning you would have a 27% edge in this case. So the key then Monet, is, however you got the true odds for your example above (like 63-1 for the six teamer) just do it for the 5 teamer that excludes the lock. Then you can perform the calculation to see what kind of edge you have or the casino has (if the true odds are greater than the casino payout odds you subtract from 100% the payout odds divided by the true odds, otherwise you add to 100% the true odds divided by the payout odds)

[monet]

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to break down the answers... appreciated.

[tableplay]

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to break down the answers... appreciated.

No problem, anytime. With all the moving parts in the parlays, they are obviously highly volatile and pricing inefficiencies pop up like crazy - I'm sure people like Benter immasculate these inefficiencies with computer programs that go through all the millions of parlay permutations to find whack parlay bets. Arbitrage traders in the financial markets could have a second calling in parlay construction no doubt. Or the other route is to know fucking hockey inside out like you and then make a killing that way.

[monet]

No problem, anytime. With all the moving parts in the parlays, they are obviously highly volatile and pricing inefficiencies pop up like crazy - I'm sure people like Benter immasculate these inefficiencies with computer programs that go through all the millions of parlay permutations to find whack parlay bets. Arbitrage traders in the financial markets could have a second calling in parlay construction no doubt. Or the other route is to know fucking hockey inside out like you and then make a killing that way.

Nice of you to say.
What I think many people don't understand is that I have done nothing with my life but basically live the life of Riley.
And I have followed the NHL, MLB, NFL and even the NBA up till about 2012.
Being a no good bum gives you a lot of time to watch every game, read a bunch of information and watch a ton of analysis shows.
Of course that doesn't even come close to competing with a computer program but some of us play by feel.
Don't take that the wrong way because Math is King but I don't think anyone in the know can deny that Feel Players exist or at the very least have their place.
Just putting in 40+ years of watching or following every game gives that individual some experience that can't be taught.
You can have all the Math you want but playing with money changes things.
People react funny when money is on the line and the bigger the money the more the pressure.
Very Easy to Tilt or Crack the most disciplined people.
Most people would barf their guts out putting 1200 dollars on a 6 teamer.

[tableplay]

No problem, anytime. With all the moving parts in the parlays, they are obviously highly volatile and pricing inefficiencies pop up like crazy - I'm sure people like Benter immasculate these inefficiencies with computer programs that go through all the millions of parlay permutations to find whack parlay bets. Arbitrage traders in the financial markets could have a second calling in parlay construction no doubt. Or the other route is to know fucking hockey inside out like you and then make a killing that way.

Nice of you to say.
What I think many people don't understand is that I have done nothing with my life but basically live the life of Riley.
And I have followed the NHL, MLB, NFL and even the NBA up till about 2012.
Being a no good bum gives you a lot of time to watch every game, read a bunch of information and watch a ton of analysis shows.
Of course that doesn't even come close to competing with a computer program but some of us play by feel.
Don't take that the wrong way because Math is King but I don't think anyone in the know can deny that Feel Players exist or at the least has its place.
Just putting in 40+ years of watching or following every game gives that individual some experience that can't be taught.

Good point - I used to watch a lot of NBA games but now that it's woke I don't watch it at all.

[monet]

Here is my objective proof for this late evening, early morning.
I've been playing this Evil Machine for 5 years when the Minor Jackpot is over 5300 and point day.
I've never seen it over 5500 in five years till these last few days.
So I start playing it around 12:15 or so.
And it is Straight Fucking Down.
None of this get ahead Bullshit and lose it back.
Just yum, yum, yum... feed me your hundos!
Stuck about 800 in 5 minutes and I get the Fire 7 Fire 7 and I'm rooting for the other Fire 7 to get the 5500 and get the Fuck out of there.
I forgot that the Double Sign actually could jump in there lol.
Fucking Third Reel Slow Rolled me too!
A bit shocked but happy.
Needless to say now we FIRE till we spin off the 5500 dollar jackpot.
The damn machine literally ate 4500 till I got one regular set of sevens.
This is running horrible.
I end up stuck 8k till I say Fuck it and move over to 9/7 DB.
I make 4 sevens on the second hand.
Irony... Four Fucking Sevens!!
Make a few other hands and after that crack the aces for 8k getting back the 8k plus 1800 more.
I Fucking get a 100 dollar comp and a few Steak Dinners and Fly the Fuck Home.
Now back in the Nest deciding how much to lose in Sports today!
Now, Mother Fuckers... tell me these pictures are someone else's lol.

Honestly though this month of April has been the best month of my life.
Fucking Ridiculous and I thought a year or so ago I had the best month of my life but I was wrong.
This is about 18x better.
I'm telling my money to get in the book and do some work for me!!

I lost 2 grand in hockey/baseball yesterday but this evening I made 12,000 dollars per hour.
FUCK HOCKEY!
I took the picture of the Aces with the glare because I know Rob likes it like that.

I don't need a coach.
I know what the Fuck I am doing.
I think?

[Rob.Singer]

Here is my objective proof for this late evening, early morning.
I've been playing this Evil Machine for 5 years when the Minor Jackpot is over 5300 and point day.
I've never seen it over 5500 in five years till these last few days.
So I start playing it around 12:15 or so.
And it is Straight Fucking Down.
None of this get ahead Bullshit and lose it back.
Just yum, yum, yum... feed me your hundos!
Stuck about 800 in 5 minutes and I get the Fire 7 Fire 7 and I'm rooting for the other Fire 7 to get the 5500 and get the Fuck out of there.
I forgot that the Double Sign actually could jump in there lol.
Fucking Third Reel Slow Rolled me too!
A bit shocked but happy.
Needless to say now we FIRE till we spin off the 5500 dollar jackpot.
The damn machine literally ate 4500 till I got one regular set of sevens.
This is running horrible.
I end up stuck 8k till I say Fuck it and move over to 9/7 DB.
I make 4 sevens on the second hand.
Irony... Four Fucking Sevens!!
Make a few other hands and after that crack the aces for 8k getting back the 8k plus 1800 more.
I Fucking get a 100 dollar comp and a few Steak Dinners and Fly the Fuck Home.
Now back in the Nest deciding how much to lose in Sports today!
Now, Mother Fuckers... tell me these pictures are someone else's lol.

Honestly though this month of April has been the best month of my life.
Fucking Ridiculous and I thought a year or so ago I had the best month of my life but I was wrong.
This is about 18x better.
I'm telling my money to get in the book and do some work for me!!

I lost 2 grand in hockey/baseball yesterday but this evening I made 12,000 dollars per hour.
FUCK HOCKEY!
I took the picture of the Aces with the glare because I know Rob likes it like that.

I don't need a coach.
I know what the Fuck I am doing.
I think?

HOW DO WE KNOW THAT SAYS $8000 THERE?! WHERE'D YOU GET YOUR PHOTOSHOP SKILLS, AT OFFICE DEPOT!? WHERE'S THE W2G AND HOW DO WE KNOW YOU HIT THIS AND YOU DIDN'T CREEP UP ON SOMEONE ELSE'S JACKPOT TO GET A QUICK SNAPSHOT!? AND THIS ISN'T YOURS ANYWAY--I SAW IT POSTED ON THE INTERNET IN THE PAST!!!!

Congratulations on these wins!