I want to clarify my statement since kewlJ shown some interest.
If you can pick 55% against the -110 line you will destroy parlays.
That is a mathematical fact and you will do better in the long run compared to straight bets against the -110 line.
Therefore, if you pick Even Money or Plus bets you do not have to pick as high as 55% anymore.
If that statement is wrong it certainly would not take much to disprove it.
Now for the math experts like tableplay and MC.
How does the math change if you have a 6 teamer but you know for a fact that one team will win making your parlay into a virtual 5 teamer that pays 110 to 1?
Of course this is all theoretical bullshit but since tableplay showed some interest in parlay discussion I thought this might be an alternate avenue to pursue.
Of course the 110 to 1 payout will always change depending on the line of the teams picked off the board on the parlay, so it might be better to work off of all teams at the -110 bet for MatH PurPoSeS.
The problem with that is that I would not value a 6 team all -110 parlay bet near as much.
You're basically talking the NFL with that -110 scenario.
And I want to make it clear.
I'm not in here like other players or members claiming some bullshit against math.
I post picks.
I bet picks.
I live with the results.
And remember... these numbers are parlays against all teams at -110
6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1
Fuck... what do I know... I know nothing... I'm a Fucking Idiot... E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk
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