Objective proof?

[MaxPen]

Hey... if you guys all have great retirement and health plans set up then that's terrific! Congratulations.

Did you see any of the regular APs that post here have any problems when stuff shut down for months and they had no income from their AP activities? It may as well have been years for a lot of them. Wouldn't have made a difference.

I know that you cannot comprehend that as you jones for your monthly check in order to hit the craps table for a week or two. But it is what it is.

How much money is needed before whether or not you have a pension check is even relevant?

[mickeycrimm]

I just changed my signature.

I would suggest that you are not locking up profit at all. What age were you when you first started gambling? How many sessions have you gambled in your lifetime? What was the outcome of all of them? But let's make it easy.

Example:

You've gambled exactly 3 sessions in your life.

First session you lost a thousand dollars.
Second session you lost 500 dollars.
3rd session you stopped/paused for the day when you got 500 dollars ahead.

So.....you locked up the profit? What profit? You're still 1000 dollars stuck.

What I'm suggesting to you negative expectation gamblers the only way you can show a profit is by creative bookeeping. In other words, an artificial starting point. If you go back and include every session you ever played in your life in the statistics....you are a big time loser. And you, Alan, have admitted to never having a winning year.

[monet]

LOL the Sharks beat the Knights so it's going to be damn near impossible for the Knights to make the playoffs.
Good!
I'm Glad.
Their Front Office totally FUBARED that team.
And DISH Network can suck it too since they won't let me watch any of the Knights games.
DISH Network is Lucky they Have TVB Channels or I never would have them Fuckers in my house.
Damn Bitch won't let me cancel it lol.
GO RANGERS!!
And GO WILD with MAF!!

[mickeycrimm]

Does maxpen stopping sucking cock for the day mean he won't suck a cock tomorrow? He's an addicted cocksucker so he'll be sucking cock again tomorrow.

[monet]

Does maxpen stopping sucking cock for the day mean he won't suck a cock tomorrow? He's an addicted cocksucker so he'll be sucking cock again tomorrow.

Nothing against MaxPen but this post was hilarious and well written.
You can insert anyone's name you want.
Nicely Done MC.

[kewlJ]

What I'm suggesting to you negative expectation gamblers the only way you can show a profit is by creative bookeeping.

Near as I can tell, there is no bookkeeping. These guys never keep records. They scrap together what money they can, when they get paid or whatever other check they get comes in, and head off to the casino. Because they don't keep records, they don't even know how far in the hole they are. That is why when you ask a negative expectation player about lifetime win/loss, they always say "about even", which is a complete joke.

So they scrape together $500 here and lose it. A week later they scrape together $400 and lose it. A few weeks later they scrape together another $600 and lose it. The following month, when their check comes in they scrape together another $500 and turn that into $1000 and "lock up profits". Most ridiculous thing ever. And guess what, they haven't locked up shit, because a few days later they are back at the casino and lose that $1000. Both the $500 they started with that month and the profits they "locked up".

I don't care if these guys don't want to count all their losing sessions and only count their winning sessions. The nutjob at WoV (and other forums) does that, only telling of his winning sessions. But when someone says they are "locking up profits", even if only from one session and dismissing all the losing sessions, they aren't "locking up" anything unless they never play again. If they are back 3 days later with that money, what have they "locked up"?

These people have no idea of what a bankroll is and any sort of money management. They just talk nonsense.

[coach belly]

Does maxpen stopping sucking cock for the day mean he won't suck a cock tomorrow? He's an addicted cocksucker so he'll be sucking cock again tomorrow.

Did he say he would stop, pause, or quit?

His fellow cocksuckers think that's all that matters.

[kewlJ]

Look, we all know people that have quit smoking, I am sure. If someone quits smoking, and 3 days later you see them outside puffing on a cigarette, did they quit smoking or pulse for a couple days?

If someone "quits while a head" and 3 days later they are back at the casino gambling, did they "quit" or did they pulse? And exactly what money did they lock up?

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes Mickeycrimm, as I've said repeatedly on this and other forums, and as I've said in three divorces in which I was sued for alimony, and as I've filed every year on my federal and state taxes, I HAVE NEVER HAD A PROFITABLE YEAR GAMBLING.

And with that said, had I been more careful about locking up certain big jackpots (which might have meant making fewer frivolous bets) I might have had some profitable years.

Let me give you an actual example.

One weekend I'm at Caesars and I hit a progressive royal for about $24,000. I locked up $14k as a profit and decided to play with the rest at craps.

But here's what I did: I played a more reckless strategy. Rather than take my wins to first replenish my outlay, I started pressing immediately. That was a mistake.

Since you may not know craps I'll give it to you play by play.

I'd start with $135 across.
Instead of taking the first four hits of $35 each to replenish the initial $135 outlay, I immediately pressed. Then a 7 would come and I'd lose it all.

Normally, I'd take the wins from the first four numbers (4 X 35) before I'd start to press.

But I was so "giddy" from hitting a $24k royal, with only a couple hundred in the machine by the way, that I threw caution to the winds and I DID NOT LOCK UP MY PROFIT.

Some players might commend me for pressing early, but a more cautious approach of locking up profits or replenishing the initial outlay first would have given me better results.

Hence the money management tool of quitting or pausing when ahead. It doesnt mean you're quitting forever. It means you are taking your outlay back -- covering your initial bets -- before using your winnings to create new betting opportunities.

People do this in business all the time. Companies take in sales to create profits before they spend money on expansion or before paying out dividends.

Is this money management so stupid?

Frankly I think the so-called APs who criticize my phrase of quit when ahead or quit when pausing do the same thing that I do... but they don't realize it. Or, they won't admit it.

In order to keep gambling and in order to keep taking shots at the casino you need ammunition. If you don't replenish your ammunition you will not be able to keep playing or winning.

But then you have players who think they can't lose because they are playing with a positive edge.

Oh, so you can't lose?

Who has never had a losing session? Besides jbjb and soxfan and maxpen, I dont know of anyone who hasnt had a losing session.

Even Kewlj admits to losing for months at a time.

But what keeps you going during those losing seasons? A large bankroll plus profits you banked before.

Of course I can't speak for Maxpen because he wasn't hurt by the Pandemic shutdown. Good for you Maxpen, but AP extraordinaire Kewlj collected state unemployment insurance benefits during the shutdown.

[redietz]

Find some specific "bullshitting" examples. Then we can have some fun.

How many examples do I need to post before you admit to being full of shit?

I'm looking for a number here, ditz, no martian mumbo-jumbo.

Post things I said and demonstrate they are wrong. Simple.

[kewlJ]

Some of you guys that play blackjack and read or used to read Norm's forum, will remember a kind of oddball guy, that posted there for a while. I forget what he did for a living, but in his 60's when he retired, he took up card counting. He had a starting bankroll of whatever amount it was that he set aside as his blackjack bankroll, that he kept in a shoebox. And as he played and won or lost, the amount of the bankroll in the shoebox, fluctuated. That is a very primitive way of keeping track that I wouldn't recommend for any player, who is even slightly serious about his play, but at least this guy always knew exactly where he stood as far as bankroll and winning and losing.

These degenerate gambler types that scrape together one session bankroll after another, have no idea where they stand. Maybe if they could see the actual amounts they have lost, they would stop, or learn to apply some AP techniques. Although most always say that would take the fun out of gambling. So they do what they do and lie to themselves along with everyone else.

[mickeycrimm]

Yes Mickeycrimm, as I've said repeatedly on this and other forums, and as I've said in three divorces in which I was sued for alimony, and as I've filed every year on my federal and state taxes, I HAVE NEVER HAD A PROFITABLE YEAR GAMBLING.

And with that said, had I been more careful about locking up certain big jackpots (which might have meant making fewer frivolous bets) I might have had some profitable years.

Let me give you an actual example.

One weekend I'm at Caesars and I hit a progressive royal for about $24,000. I locked up $14k as a profit and decided to play with the rest at craps.

But here's what I did: I played a more reckless strategy. Rather than take my wins to first replenish my outlay, I started pressing immediately. That was a mistake.

Since you may not know craps I'll give it to you play by play.

I'd start with $135 across.
Instead of taking the first four hits of $35 each to replenish the initial $135 outlay, I immediately pressed. Then a 7 would come and I'd lose it all.

Normally, I'd take the wins from the first four numbers (4 X 35) before I'd start to press.

But I was so "giddy" from hitting a $24k royal, with only a couple hundred in the machine by the way, that I threw caution to the winds and I DID NOT LOCK UP MY PROFIT.

Some players might commend me for pressing early, but a more cautious approach of locking up profits or replenishing the initial outlay first would have given me better results.

Hence the money management tool of quitting or pausing when ahead. It doesnt mean you're quitting forever. It means you are taking your outlay back -- covering your initial bets -- before using your winnings to create new betting opportunities.

People do this in business all the time. Companies take in sales to create profits before they spend money on expansion or before paying out dividends.

Is this money management so stupid?

Frankly I think the so-called APs who criticize my phrase of quit when ahead or quit when pausing do the same thing that I do... but they don't realize it. Or, they won't admit it.

In order to keep gambling and in order to keep taking shots at the casino you need ammunition. If you don't replenish your ammunition you will not be able to keep playing or winning.

But then you have players who think they can't lose because they are playing with a positive edge.

Oh, so you can't lose?

Who has never had a losing session? Besides jbjb and soxfan and maxpen, I dont know of anyone who hasnt had a losing session.

Even Kewlj admits to losing for months at a time.

But what keeps you going during those losing seasons? A large bankroll plus profits you banked before.

Of course I can't speak for Maxpen because he wasn't hurt by the Pandemic shutdown. Good for you Maxpen, but AP extraordinaire Kewlj collected state unemployment insurance benefits during the shutdown.

I have no problem with negative gamblers using stop win/stop loss. I actually recommend it. Since you are gambling at a deficit the less you play the less you will lose. So go ahead and quit those times you get ahead in the short term. It will save you money in the long run.

Just don't fool yourself by thinking you will win in the long term.

[Alan Mendelson]

Whether you are playing positive or negative games when does it hurt to take a profit?

[kewlJ]

One weekend I'm at Caesars and I hit a progressive royal for about $24,000. I locked up $14k as a profit and decided to play with the rest at craps.

But here's what I did: I played a more reckless strategy. Rather than take my wins to first replenish my outlay, I started pressing immediately. That was a mistake.

Since you may not know craps I'll give it to you play by play.

I'd start with $135 across.
Instead of taking the first four hits of $35 each to replenish the initial $135 outlay, I immediately pressed. Then a 7 would come and I'd lose it all.

Serious question Alan? So after you "locked up $14k" and blew through the 10K, did you ever gamble again? If you did, then you didn't really lock anything up did you? You didn't "quit" while ahead, you just paused for a while.

Not trying to put you down or be mean. This is the way many "gamblers" think. But it is complete voodoo.

[MaxPen]

Yes Mickeycrimm, as I've said repeatedly on this and other forums, and as I've said in three divorces in which I was sued for alimony, and as I've filed every year on my federal and state taxes, I HAVE NEVER HAD A PROFITABLE YEAR GAMBLING.

And with that said, had I been more careful about locking up certain big jackpots (which might have meant making fewer frivolous bets) I might have had some profitable years.

Let me give you an actual example.

One weekend I'm at Caesars and I hit a progressive royal for about $24,000. I locked up $14k as a profit and decided to play with the rest at craps.

But here's what I did: I played a more reckless strategy. Rather than take my wins to first replenish my outlay, I started pressing immediately. That was a mistake.

Since you may not know craps I'll give it to you play by play.

I'd start with $135 across.
Instead of taking the first four hits of $35 each to replenish the initial $135 outlay, I immediately pressed. Then a 7 would come and I'd lose it all.

Normally, I'd take the wins from the first four numbers (4 X 35) before I'd start to press.

But I was so "giddy" from hitting a $24k royal, with only a couple hundred in the machine by the way, that I threw caution to the winds and I DID NOT LOCK UP MY PROFIT.

Some players might commend me for pressing early, but a more cautious approach of locking up profits or replenishing the initial outlay first would have given me better results.

Hence the money management tool of quitting or pausing when ahead. It doesnt mean you're quitting forever. It means you are taking your outlay back -- covering your initial bets -- before using your winnings to create new betting opportunities.

People do this in business all the time. Companies take in sales to create profits before they spend money on expansion or before paying out dividends.

Is this money management so stupid?

Frankly I think the so-called APs who criticize my phrase of quit when ahead or quit when pausing do the same thing that I do... but they don't realize it. Or, they won't admit it.

In order to keep gambling and in order to keep taking shots at the casino you need ammunition. If you don't replenish your ammunition you will not be able to keep playing or winning.

But then you have players who think they can't lose because they are playing with a positive edge.

Oh, so you can't lose?

Who has never had a losing session? Besides jbjb and soxfan and maxpen, I dont know of anyone who hasnt had a losing session.

Even Kewlj admits to losing for months at a time.

But what keeps you going during those losing seasons? A large bankroll plus profits you banked before.

Of course I can't speak for Maxpen because he wasn't hurt by the Pandemic shutdown. Good for you Maxpen, but AP extraordinaire Kewlj collected state unemployment insurance benefits during the shutdown.

I'm pretty sure dope heads have rituals on how they lay out their lines, fill their pipes, or tie off their arms. This reads something like that. It's all a bunch of nonsense.

I lose all the time. I just win more than I lose. It's guaranteed to happen that way. Or I wouldn't play. Does it happen every session? No

[monet]

It's time to play our favorite game.
More Parlay Discussion.

If you bet a 2 Teamer and yes that is a Parlay and each team you put on the ticket has an 85% chance to win do you have the mathematical edge?

[tableplay]

It's time to play our favorite game.
More Parlay Discussion.

If you bet a 2 Teamer and yes that is a Parlay and each team you put on the ticket has an 85% chance to win do you have the mathematical edge?

Monet, you have about a 72.3% chance of winning the parlay.

[The Boz]

It's time to play our favorite game.
More Parlay Discussion.

If you bet a 2 Teamer and yes that is a Parlay and each team you put on the ticket has an 85% chance to win do you have the mathematical edge?

Why not do the math on betting each straight, then as the parley, then how you make out if both win or if you split.

Then you have the answer. And the answer may not be if you had an advantage, but did you give some advantage away. Or did you gain some compared to betting them individually?

And how can you quantify “85%” chance? Historical numbers or just estimated?

It’s an interesting question you asked.

[monet]

Monet, you have about a 72.3% chance of winning the parlay.

That doesn't sound so good but I don't understand math.
If the 2 Team Parlay pays 3 or 4 to 1 on your money and you have a 70% chance to win do you have the mathematical edge against the book over time?
What if the Quarterback likes Cocaine?
Does that factor into the equation?
Just spitballin' here.

[monet]

Why not do the math on betting each straight, then as the parley, then how you make out if both win or if you split.

Then you have the answer. And the answer may not be if you had an advantage, but did you give some advantage away. Or did you gain some compared to betting them individually?

And how can you quantify “85%” chance? Historical numbers or just estimated?

It’s an interesting question you asked.

Oh Lookie Here!
The professional sports bettor finally came out of the woodwork.
Welcome to the conversation!