Originally Posted by monet View Post
Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
Monet, you have about a 72.3% chance of winning the parlay.
If the 2 Team Parlay pays 3 or 4 to 1 on your money and you have a 70% chance to win do you have the mathematical edge against the book over time?
At three to 1 we have:
0.7x3 + 0.3x(-1)=1.8 meaning you will profit 1.8 dollars for each dollar bet in the long run.
At four to 1 we have:
0.7x4+0.3x(-1)=2.5 meaning you will profit 2.5 dollars for each dollar bet in the long run.

So you would have the mathematical edge in both of these situations for the odds you provided and the probability (70%) you provided.