Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
It all goes back to my question, which redietz wouldn't answer. If you could get a 2 point difference on every NFL line would you take it? Remember I said EVERY NFL GAME. The proposition is made before the season starts. You have to bet every game on the board every week for 17 weeks.
Obviously, you'd have a massive edge. The real question is why are you asking a question with such a simple answer?
I agree. I think its advantage. The reason for the question is because some people like redietz don't believe just handicapping numbers works. I know of a book where the lines move like crazy towards the favorites and overs starting a couple of hours before game time. It's because everyone standing in line is betting the favs and overs. I think pouncing in that situation when the number moves two points is advantage.

This is actually a complete misrepresentation of everything I do. I don't know why mickey crimm just makes stuff up, but that's who he is and where we are on this. It's stupid and silly.

If anyone has read my umpteen criticisms of parlay betting and parlay calculators, they know exactly how much I value shopping and how the absence of optimal numbers is the crux of why I argue that parlay betting is de facto a bad idea. I must have posted this stuff at least 20 times, but mickey decides I meant the opposite of what I've written 20 times.

Also, I have mentioned at least four or five times that the only sports gambler I have ever met who I truly believe did not have a losing year -- ever -- was Larry Fletcher, aka Southern Comfort. As I have described probably half a dozen times on this forum, his modus operandi was in large part numbers shopping.

Mickey generalizes from a fundamental question he asked, which was regarding NFL wagering and getting two free points per wager. He did not specify whether that was for sides or totals, which are two completely different things and yield two completely different answers. He then extrapolated to all sports, which are completely different things.

The arguments on these boards that I take issue with have to do people thinking that shopping numbers is exploitable in some easy fashion. It is not. Numbers move in unison more now than ever. In fact, the way and reasons numbers move are completely different from 30 years ago. The other problem is the idea that somehow line moves in certain sports are generally correct to some significant degree. "Sports" is not a generic thing. You have to specify which sports, for what reason the lines move, and when during a season. For example, about two-thirds of the way into a college basketball season, both college point spreads and totals are murderously accurate. Getting the best of those numbers is paramount. And getting the best of those numbers is not easy or automatic, as I detailed in my three or four mentions of Chinese programmers attacking college hoops in LV for two seasons about six years ago.

I would appreciate mickey abstaining from misinterpreting what he knows nothing about and from misreporting how I do things when he has no idea. Half the reason people have me handling their money is precisely because I have a reputation for (1) knowing the majority of the time where college football lines will move and (2) shopping in a sustained, 24/7 way.

And regarding the initial question, unless you're buying off three, getting two free points on NFL sides all year for every game and laying -110 any given year is not going to yield any enormous advantage. At all. Unless you're working off three.