Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Seedvalue, have you read Mdawgs adventure and the claims within? because what you are saying is NOT what he claims.

He claims that he bets a couple hundred and then when the shoe is "ripe", he jumps his bet up to $2000, $3000, sometimes $5000. There has only been 1 or 2 times in 5 years that he has mentioned wagering $10,000 or $20,000 and that has been when he was way down, so he was more or less "chasing".

If you look at this current 45 day trip, mixed in with some larger day wins and losses are some wins and losses of:

Day 3, +$2000
Day 6, -$300
Day 11, -$1100
Day 17, +$1100
Day 18, +$600
Day 25, +$1500

He has reported wins and losses of $100, or $140 at times. Does this sound like the results of someone wagering $20k a hand? What player wagering $20k a hand stops at a few hundred dollars?

And THAT is the difference between the story Eliot told us that he was called in to evaluate, a high roller that was betting very large, so him being up a couple million after half dozen trips really was just variance. Mdawgs large wagers, most at $2000, $3000, even $5000, and being up $339k is not the same kind of "just variance". And if you add it up over the 5 years and figure he is several million ahead betting these amounts, it is even more not "just variance".

One final thing. I believe you are a top player, who makes big money and does all sorts of different AP plays. During your time here you have talked a good deal about multi-carding, because that is now pretty well known. But I am guessing there were times you were doing things that weren't well known, either by casinos or other players. So my question: Did you run to not one but 4 or 5 forums posting in detail exactly how much you won every day and at times even list the casinos? Does that really sound like something someone that had discovered something that no one else knows about, including casinos would do? Or would they keep their mouth shut? Answer seriously please.

And finally, I can pull some quotes of really ridiculous things he has said. Ploppy, voodoo things. Like, one time he said he sets a goal and stops when he gets there. You know Stop Limits. Just many different things that no AP would say. Another time he indicated he wins because he has a bigger bankroll, as if saying a larger bankroll can overcome -Ev and turn it +EV.

I get that you want to support him, for whatever reason. Maybe you legitimately believe him. All I am asking is take a read of some of what he has written and then make an honest assesment.

You have some valid points, but you don’t have all the information. Take him up on a challenge if you don’t believe him, and let us know what happens. I for one won’t be doing so. Just like I said Mdawg should not take the bet with Axel on getting a check from the casino for verified wins. I know there was some back and forth and some technical details I may have missed on that, but I know Axel can do it.

To answer your other question no I have not read everything he posted. I actually have plays to run, and many things going on. However I did read everything up to a certain point when I had covid, and came to my own conclusion then tested my theory in a casino. At the time I just so happen to be running a play on a electronic baccarat machine so I was deep into the math of side bets, comps, and other things related to the game. My game had bets not yet discussed openly on forums, and there was a game mechanic not known to many unless you had access to the manuals.

We ended up having brain storming sessions with the assumption that Mdawg was in fact winning, but was most definitely leaving our certain aspects of the play. I had a young college age girl on my team who came up with most likely scenario. Without giving anything away we found and edge to be had in certain casinos. Not all

Look I don’t know if everything he says is absolutely the truth. I don’t get his obsession with posting on these boards, but I know enough not to take him up on his challenge. You can do whatever you want