The Wizard's Half Point Parlay Card Threads

[MDawg]

So as a math guy,

What "math guy" can't even keep track of how many years she supposedly went to college, or the day of the week where she received her ACH settlement? (Or how long it might take to re-program a shuffling machine.)

Thirty-three UNKewl lies, and counting.

[Don Perignom]

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder?

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

[kewlJ]

So as a math guy,

What "math guy" can't even keep track of how many years she supposedly went to college, or the day of the week where she received her ACH settlement? (Or how long it might take to re-program a shuffling machine.)

This is as dishonest as dishonest can be. You took a quote where I referred to someone else as a math guy, and only post a couple words, making it look like I referred to myself as a "math guy", which is something I have never, never, NEVER done. Is their no floor to the level you will sink and the lies you make up. What a fucking sleezebag, you are! On some forums inclduing WoV, people are suspended or banned for such intentional misquoting.

[redietz]

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

I think this is the most relevant chart from his writeup:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...ng/nfl-parlay/



Core concept is to pick only the games with a significant edge. Usually this involves the key point spreads of 3 or 7, but can also include other games with big line moves (assuming the book doesn't restrict those games).

The more picks on your card, the more your edge is compounded. On a 12-leg card, the edge reaches 100%. But if I understand correctly, that's almost impossible to be available. Also, the variance is astronomical. Your odds of hitting are almost 1500-to-1 against. (He mentions one book with a small consolation payout for catching 11 of 12.)

Realistically as he suggests in his commentary, you typically only have around 4 viable picks available which translates to a 14% edge on the chart.

If you look through those threads, there were many lackluster weeks without any strong opportunities.

For such a high-variance endeavor, I think caution is required in assessing actual results. Even on the pick-4 at 14% edge, you're still 11-to-1 against. I believe Wizard was reasonably able to estimate his EV. In the later discussions, he assigns each pick a value in "basis points" -- but I'm not clear on the computational procedure.

Ultimately, his overall edge depended on his play criteria. If he only played the best weekends, I can see that he could have been up near 30%. But to get the 30% on a pick-6, you're 38-to-1 against.

You guys do realize that, during and after the years listed by mickey, there were some rules changes significantly affecting the ubiquity (look up "ubiquity," mickey) of the 3 and 7 point margins?

Please tell me you all knew that.

LOL.

Why do you think Mr. Walters, in his book, used historical rather than current data in his how-to chapters? I mean, Jesus, this stuff is goddamn obvious. It didn't occur to anyone to check it out?

You guys...if you didn't notice this shit, God bless you. You really need to be locked up for your own protection.

Final word: you guys treat sports betting as if it's in-perpetuity coin flips. It is so dumb, inappropriate, and flat-out wrong from any mathematical perspective. Mind-bogglingly wrong.

Over and out. Seriously, why should I be correcting mickey crimm's wayward gambling? The guy is like Rain Man. Rain Man as a cab driver.

By the way, I addressed the dates of Walters' charts and opined on the why's of that, at the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting regarding Gambler by Billy Walters. Mickey should have taken up my offer to fly him in for the meeting. He might have learned something.

[kewlJ]

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

How am I the bad guy? Are you speaking me personally or advantage players in the war vs casinos?

If me personally, I don't know what your status is, I suspect you have some kind of employment to support yourself and pay your bills other than APing. I'll bet you wouldn't take kindly to someone trying to take that away and stop you from making a living.

If you are talking advantage players or card counters in general, no court has ever ruled that what we do is illegal. and many have specifically ruled that is is completely legal. We aren't the bad guys.

[Don Perignom]

You guys...if you didn't notice this shit, God bless you. You really need to be locked up for your own protection.

If I remember, I'll post a thread when I try this out for the 2017 NFL season.

[Don Perignom]

How am I the bad guy?

You're imposing a bunch of imaginary obligations on people for your convenience.

This is why we have so many wars.

[smurgerburger]

I for one am shocked, astonished, and nearly speechless with flabbergastation.

[jdog]

How am I the bad guy?

Obviously he was referring to the fact that you hoped these people got murdered... and you always paint yourself as a nice guy??

[kewlJ]

How am I the bad guy?

Obviously he was referring to the fact that you hoped these people got murdered... and you always paint yourself as a nice guy??

People were murdered in the October 1 Las Vegas mass shooting. I don't condone that in any way. But it happened. People died. I wouldn't be the least bit upset if I learned that some sleezebag that had tried to harm and prevent me from making a living was among them. I am sorry but I wouldn't shed a tear for them. Just as I wouldn't shed a tear if that doxing, lying sleezebag Mdawg were to suddenly expire when a piano drops out of the sky (maybe from an airplane) on him.

[cyberbabble]

KJ,

Could you post a link to the thread where you vowed to continue to post negative things about the Wiz for the rest of your life? I think you claimed you would destroy his reputation and his credibility for all to see. You also pointed out that since you are younger than the Wiz he would probably die first. You said that would let you continue the attacks even after died.

[kewlJ]

KJ,

Could you post a link to the thread where you vowed to continue to post negative things about the Wiz for the rest of your life? I think you claimed you destroy his reputation and his credibility for all to see. You also pointed out that since you are younger than the Wiz he would probably die first. You said that would let you continue the attacks even after died.

Why? that is water under the bridge for me. May not have been my best moment and I probably didn't get across what I was trying to get across. These things happen. Mickey made some kind of reference in the heat of the moment (and maybe fueled by some firewater) about coming to shacks door and some veiled reference of shooting him, or at least that is what Shack claims. I forget the wording but mickey was not going to shoot Shack. It is ridiculous.

Shackleford was wrong in siding with Qfit in our dispute. Mike even said he considered Qfit (norm) a friend and he felt like he owed him a favor. The guy isn't even a member of that forum really. And in many private exchanges with Mike, he lied, by telling me one thing privately and saying the opposite publicly. I had every right to be a little angry with him. But again, ancient history. Why do you feel the need to bring it up?

[kewlJ]

Anyway, enough of this. I am going out to lunch and play a decent size coin in at a casino I have been advised still sends out decent mailers.

I did some of this back in January, wanting to get back into the mailer husting game, but was on the road a lot from March to last week and just wasn't able to play the free play offers once they started rolling in, so I am back to square one, trying to generate more offers.

[smurgerburger]

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

[accountinquestion]

So is Redietz's big thing he likes to reference the stats around NFL pointspreads and how they change? That there have been rule changes and other factors which invalidate those stats? Is that basically it?

So instead of talking about these factors and sharing what he does know (that is not info that would burn out anything) he talks about how he knows something others don't.

lmao can you imagine counting how many times he has done this? Must be dozens of times (on this board alone!) he is trying to impress the users of this forum. Just to fit in as a professional gambler. Just wow.

wow.

It would actually be an interesting discussion to see. I don't bet NFL currently but it would be actionable info vs his typical babble-insult.

Yet he doesn't do this. He goes on and on about how everyone else is dumb.

Why is it that he clings to these little nuggets of info?

Regardless a true sharp should be able to take rule changes into account somewhat and shade the stats in the proper direction if needed. It is definitely good to know if you are betting. Perhaps integrating some change into your system.. Or take fewer more marginal situations. So many factors. And still not a reason to never use 'EV' in discussions with other fellow sharps. (who ALWAYS understand it is an approximation)

Yet Redietz still won't talk about it.

Fuck I just want to know how you determine the EV of bets after the fact?? His highness won't even do that. (lol) Apparently it somehow exists in the past tense though.....

Singer and I agree on this one. This guy is weird. Just weird.

[kewlJ]

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

Will do.

This is a perfect example of you being blinded by hate and bias. After we completed our play on the blackjack glitch, and I was able to talk some about it and our experience, some other players like mickeycrimm and others (not going to look right now) confirmed that there are such glitches on machines, and the electronic blackjack games seem to have more than their fair share of them.

We stumbled upon one. Made s bit of money. Hate and bias just won't allow you to accept that.

BTW, I received an email from someone late last week, again claiming there are more machines still out there that have not been fixed or whatever the terminology is. He even gave me a specific location of one he claims to have played last week. he was not someone I am familiar with, but seemed credible. But we did our thing. Not going to go running around searching every machine in every out of the way corner of the country.

[MDawg]

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder?

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

The reason UNKewlJ loses at everything and is a loser in general is because he's a bad, unnatural person. And that has nothing to do with his being gay.

KJ, why don’t you just stop with all the bitter angry crap.

[smurgerburger]

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

Will do.

This is a perfect example of you being blinded by hate and bias. After we completed our play on the blackjack glitch, and I was able to talk some about it and our experience, some other players like mickeycrimm and others (not going to look right now) confirmed that there are such glitches on machines, and the electronic blackjack games seem to have more than their fair share of them.

We stumbled upon one. Made s bit of money. Hate and bias just won't allow you to accept that.

BTW, I received an email from someone late last week, again claiming there are more machines still out there that have not been fixed or whatever the terminology is. He even gave me a specific location of one he claims to have played last week. he was not someone I am familiar with, but seemed credible. But we did our thing. Not going to go running around searching every machine in every out of the way corner of the country.

Pretty generous for a guy to cold contact you with the specific location of an actively glitched machine.

[Don Perignom]

Regardless a true sharp should be able to take rule changes into account somewhat and shade the stats in the proper direction if needed.

Yes.

Incidentally, here's how Nevada has evolved in 10 years. Statewide:



From 2013 to 2023, parlay cards crashed from nearly 15% to less than 2% of total sportsbook win.

If you identified an edge today, I assume you'd be more conspicuous given the reduced volume.

I wonder what their plan is to replace that high-volume segment of their operations. Other states which are mostly mobile-only, promote parlays very heavily in their apps. But Nevada has mostly primitive apps, with very little promotion.

[Rob.Singer]

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end.

It's entertaining watching kew make this stuff up on the go as he tries to shoehorn his fantasies into all the information others bring up first. And the true tell? Him wishing death to AP's who just don't fit the mold he concocted about himself.

Who does that?