Professional Sportsbetting

[MDawg]

UNKewlJ isn't actually betting, just studying up and then nervously spouting what he thinks will make him appear legitimate. Hence the discrepancies and scrambling to Explain His Position when called out.

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.

You blindly latch onto whatever anyone says that supports your narrative instead of doing your own research....RIP

Which of course fits the pattern of that he doesn't actually play and lifts anything he has to say from other sources.

[redietz]

Axelwolf's last statement is, technically, correct. For example, it can depend on the utility the bonus has to other, previous investments.

If that's too arcane a statement, good. I'm sure Axelwolf gets it.

[AxelWolf]

FYI, I was interested in following Dan's picks, I asked Dan to explain some logic behind his picks and why he thought he had +EV, and he said he was going to wait until the next season and see how he does. I don't think Dan has ever explained why or how he's making his decisions. I think Dan's a very smart person and can probably beat sports for a small %, but before I start following someone's picks I want some logic behind it so I can make my decision if I think it's a good bet or not.

You can go thru Druff's threads in the Sportsbetting section where he makes his picks going back to 2019, I think. He covered NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL. I went thru his threads once and determined he picked around 50%, except for the great run he had, I think it was last year in the NFL.

Wow, that sounds like lots of work.

Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.

[AxelWolf]

And Axelwolf, you have been pressing me for some of the exact numbers as far as rollover, and bonus that I have received. I have been reluctant to post them as I don't think it a great idea to do so. But I will risk it and share what I got this week.

I recently cashed out at one of my books as the cycle I started in September at the start of football had ended (meaning I hit the rollover amount and cashed out). The public offers on their site were crap, so I didn't rush to take a new offer. Then I got an email from my "host" offering me 200% bonus at 20 times rollover, which is there public offer. Since the bonus is in free play it is only worth half of what says, so 100%, not 200%. And 20 times rollover counting full bonus and initial deposit just is too much rollover.

So I answered telling him that. So he replied with how about 120% bonus with 5x rollover. I accepted. It is not hugely +EV for me, but if I go .500 on betting games, losing 4.5% juice, I will make about 10% of my original wager. But I can and have been doing a lot better than -4.5%. Half juice Fridays for football, betting dogs and away teams +points results in only a 1-2% loss rather than 4.5% according to 20 years worth of Shackleford data. Playing on the right side of some key numbers +/-7, +/- 3 in football further reduces. I have pace numbers I use in basketball. All told I can get that expected cost down to 1.5% (average longterm) and show a 44% return on my original investment. And occasionally, I might run above .500 for a cycle and show a really spectacular return on investment.

It is all about longetrm results and return, just as it is with all advantage play.

I will have to apologize, I think I may have missed this post. To avoid having a big wall of text I'm going to comment or question a few different times and just quote the entire post because I'm too lazy to individually cut out segments.

For the most part, this is pretty some pretty solid stuff, I like it. I do love the fact that you were able to incorporate information from people like Michael Shackelford and HalfSmoke( I'm sure Red will point out that people were doing this stuff before him, and that's true but I'm not sure who's putting that information out there in one easy to access well-known website) it sounds like you got a pretty good handle on that and you are using it efficiently.

I would like to point out that there are more efficient ways to handle bonus churning, rebates, and various other sports bonus promotions. This involves extra math and calculations, admittedly I suck at this. Part of this would be taking long shots, using parlays, + money lines, larger bets etc.

Don't forget, anytime you lose and don't have to finish the wagering requirements improves your EV drastically. This is a foreign concept to the average person they will wonder and ask "How can losing improve your advantage?"

As I pointed out before oftentimes you are restricted to the type of odds and Bets you can make so you can't always use those techniques.

[AxelWolf]

The public offers on their site were crap, so I didn't rush to take a new offer. Then I got an email from my "host" offering me 200% bonus at 20 times rollover, which is there public offer.

Please direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus. As far as I know, there is only one reputable place doing so and you said you don't play there. BetUS Does have a publicly stated 200% new player bonus. But this is where I say misunderstandings can happen you think you're getting one thing but you're really not. It's a 150% bonus on sports and a mostly worthless 50% on slots with huge wagering requirements(30x or somthing like that) on gaffed/ very low payback slots locked into the bonus casino. There may even be a cap on the amount you can win from the casino bonus.

The entire host email exchange eerily reminds me of the exchanges I have had with guess who? That's right, BetUS with just different numbers.


I do find the negotiation numbers odd, I have almost never had a host offer me a strange amount like 120%, it's normally 10%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 100%,125%, 150%, or 200%.

Whenever Im offered a low 5x roll its never 120% its normally 50%. Your offers are just drastically better than everyone else's.

[AxelWolf]

The public offers on their site were crap, so I didn't rush to take a new offer. Then I got an email from my "host" offering me 200% bonus at 20 times rollover, which is there public offer.

Please direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus. As far as I know, there is only one reputable place doing so and you said you don't play there. BetUS Does have a publicly stated 200% new player bonus. But this is where I say misunderstandings can happen you think you're getting one thing but you're really not. It's a 150% bonus on sports and a mostly worthless 50% on slots with huge wagering requirements(30x or somthing like that) on gaffed/ very low payback slots locked into the bonus casino. There may even be a cap on the amount you can win from the casino bonus.

The entire host email exchange eerily reminds me of the exchanges I have had with guess who? That's right, BetUS with just different numbers.


I do find the negotiation numbers odd, I have almost never had a host offer me a strange amount like 120%, it's normally 100%,125%, 150%, or 200%.

Whenever Im offered a low 5x roll its never 120% its normally 50%. Your offers are just drastically better than everyone else's.

120% free bets with a 5x roll at a reputable book. Yeah, I'm going to crush that situation.

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=AxelWolf;187154 Wow, that sounds like lots of work. Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.[/QUOTE]

Wasn't much work at all. I just looked at his YTD totals. Last year (2023-2024) in NFL he went 25-25 +0.10 units. It was easy enough to determine that he includes money line bets in his totals. His very first bet of the year was Detroit +175. Detroit won. So he listed his YTD as 1-0 +1.75 units.

He won his super bowl bet so was actually 26-25.

Look at post #62:

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...FL-picks/page4

At 2024 NCAAF he went 21-31 and said he would probably give up college football.

[kewlJ]

Please direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus.

YouWager currently has a 200% bonus, with high rollover. THAT was the book that made me a better offer.

I don't know what the fuck your problem is. You have gone all coach belly on me, trying to find some kind of gottch ya moment. FUCK YOU axelwolf!

[mickeycrimm]

Druff had an excellent 2022 NFL season going 53-32-2 +25.89 units.
Look at post #130
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4

2022 NCAAF he went 50-44-1 +6.4 units.

Look at Post #63

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4

[mickeycrimm]

Druff had an excellent 2022 NFL season going 53-32-2 +25.89 units.
Look at post #130
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4

2022 NCAAF he went 50-44-1 +6.4 units.

Look at Post #63

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4

2022 was Druff's first year publishing his football picks. Overall he was 79-57-3 and +25.79 units in the NFL. Pretty good record.

College football he was. 71-75-1 -4.23 units

For this year in the NFL the last time he updated,11-18-24, he was 17-17-4 +1 unit. So now we have a grand total of 96-74-7 +24.79 units in the NFL. Still pretty good. Although skewed by money line picks.

[AxelWolf]

Please direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus.

YouWager currently has a 200% bonus, with high rollover. THAT was the book that made me a better offer.

I don't know what the fuck your problem is. You have gone all coach belly on me, trying to find some kind of gottch ya moment. FUCK YOU axelwolf!

I'm not sure what the issue is with stating what major sports book has xy or z promo in the first place.

YouWagers general promotions are normally capped to small amounts(100-300) when getting bigger percentages so I generally skip that promotion and hold out for better. I know someome who wagers a significant amount there(he is not an AP) I'll have to find out what deals they get from their agent.

I'm trying to figure out what the possible EV is that you are getting how one should best attack a particular bonus and how a recreational bettor one gets 20k in bonuses with a 5.6 roll on average and see if there are misunderstandings.

But you getting too paranoid and are going off the rails again so have fun going back to your regularly scheduled program and discussing all the hatred aimed at you.
.

[accountinquestion]

He has to protect his lies ... no I mean his identity. Lol kewl.

[soxfan]

The kewl-J is slippery like the eel, so yer never gonna pin him down on his bulls-shits, talls tale and fictional narrative, hey hey.

[accountinquestion]

People! Hear me out! Listen to the maths!

[kewlJ]

People! Hear me out! Listen to the maths!

Yeah, because Math doesn't matter in gambling and advantage play right AcctinQ?

Lets just have people like Mdawg and Singer, Evenbob, and now this Soxfan spewing all kinds of ridiculous claims that defy the math. Lets just have forums be an extension of the youtube videos and people like Christopher Mitchell, Mikki Maze, and the blackjack army guy, why don't we?

Is it really asking too much to have whatever claims people make to work mathematically and not defy the math? And not just have some hocus pocus, nonsense like "Special plays" or rainman nonsense? Is that really too much to ask?

[kewlJ]

There is a forum filled with all that gambling nonsense. It is actually called gambling forums. Mdawg posts there, Soxfan posts there, Singer and Evenbob/spike used to post there, along with many other baccarat and roulette silly system players, making ridiculous claims. Do we really need that here too? At the very least, have the math work for whatever claim you are making.

[The Boz]

My Bookie offering a Cyber Monday deal of 10% cash bonus up to $1000 with a 1x rollover.

You can take it from there and determine if it’s a good offer compared to your current ones.

CYBMONDAY10

[MDawg]

There is a forum filled with all that gambling nonsense.

And that is THIS forum and every forum at which you post.

KewlJ, you have repeatedly lied on this and other forums. You have admitted to many of these lies.

kewlJ has also been caught in a lot of lies over time, both on this forum and elsewhere. Therefore, it is unclear if he really makes much (or anything) playing blackjack these days.

kewlJ is basically the Boy Who Cried Wolf of these AP forums. He has lied so many times that it's impossible to believe any stories he tells.

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;187160]

Wasn't much work at all. I just looked at his YTD totals. Last year (2023-2024) in NFL he went 25-25 +0.10 units. It was easy enough to determine that he includes money line bets in his totals. His very first bet of the year was Detroit +175. Detroit won. So he listed his YTD as 1-0 +1.75 units.

He won his super bowl bet so was actually 26-25.

Look at post #62:

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...FL-picks/page4

At 2024 NCAAF he went 21-31 and said he would probably give up college football.

Made a mistake with the last sentence. It was the 2023 season druff went 21-31. He didn’t publish NCAAF picks for the 2024 season.

[redietz]

My Bookie offering a Cyber Monday deal of 10% cash bonus up to $1000 with a 1x rollover.

You can take it from there and determine if it’s a good offer compared to your current ones.

CYBMONDAY10

Hey, Boz.

For the record, two of the offshores kewlJ uses, Oddsmaker and Youwager.eu, have monster bonuses currently in place also. Oddsmaker is really onerous with their rollover, but the initial bonus is cash and it's huge, along with a casino chunk. Youwager is rock solid. Bonus not nearly as onerous, but it's free play.

Not sure if kewlJ already reported this but we may as well be useful.

Youwager.eu gives a referral bonus also, so if anyone has a friend who wants to play, A should sign up before B and refer him.

Oddsmaker rarely has an end-of-bellcurve line, and they way overcharge if you try to buy half points. I have never had an issue with them. I put through at least 500K lifetime, maybe closer to 750K.

Youwager has that small book feel, but they are very professional. They have some free perks, like an NFL contest and picking exact score of Thursday and Monday night. You'd think that was impossible, but I actually did it twice in three years. You split 5K or 10K with whoever else does it. Quick self-promo: picking six NFL sides a week is a fool's errand, but after losing with the Browns +6 last night (gag me with a spoon), I'm 55th out of 800+ in their NFL contest, nine games over .500 (no easy feat).

Now we can hear it from the local self-defined "APs" how we don't give them anything. LOL.