Professional Sportsbetting

[coach belly]

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

for me and most table game AP's the answer is yes.

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

[coach belly]

Involving more people and players is NOT no risk. It adds risk.

You must mean the risk of getting mugged, or something along those lines that you can't quantify mathematically with respect to the wager.

But as far as the bets themselves, there's no mathematical risk to the bettor using freeplay.

[AxelWolf]

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

Sure you can, given enough trials you can see their overall results and quantify their opinion mathematically. That is exactly what quantify means.

[kewlJ]

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

I JUST explained it! Blackjack card counting, holecarding (which I don't do much anymore) or other type table game I play unrated because the EV is from something besides the FP. VP, (which I also don't do much of anymore) the EV was from the FP, so yes, I collected and played FP.

You must mean the risk of getting mugged, or something along those lines that you can't quantify mathematically with respect to the wager.

But as far as the bets themselves, there's no mathematical risk to the bettor using freeplay.

No what I mean is the RISK of the play being exposed or "blown up" or otherwise shortened.

coach belly, you don't seem very knowledgeable about advantage play. Just from having been on forums as long as you have trolling, I would think you would know more than you do or are pretending not to know.

[coach belly]

quantify their opinion mathematically

Isn't expected value based on the mathematical odds of the wager, where the odds are calculated based on randomness, such that the results will follow a random distribution?

[coach belly]

Yes you don't use freeplay...and yes you do.

Yeah, OK, you explained it.

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

for me and most table game AP's the answer is yes.

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

yes, I collected and played FP.

[AxelWolf]

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

[/QUOTE] Do you know that for sure? There are plenty of gullible people in this world who can be bamboozled into thinking the profits are coming.

Do some research on MLMs, people touting their bunk betting system etc.

Here is a fun watch. I love John Oliver.

[coach belly]

No what I mean is the RISK of the play being exposed or "blown up" or otherwise shortened.

How does that apply to the money at risk for a wager?

If you bet your own money, then your money is at risk.

If you bet somebody else's money, then your money is not at risk.

It's math. Why are you struggling with this concept?

You can't quantify Integrity Sports' risk of exposure, or back off or whatever you're talking about, based on the number of investors involved.

A guy just bet $3 million the Eagles moneyline, how would the monetary risk change based on how many investors were involved in raising the stake money?

[coach belly]

Do you know that for sure?

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

[AxelWolf]

quantify their opinion mathematically

Isn't expected value based on the mathematical odds of the wager, where the odds are calculated based on randomness, such that the results will follow a random distribution?

That's CALULATED ODDS, you used the word QUANTIFIED.

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results. If someone has been picking 57% on 50/50 chances over thousands of trials, I would say you can be fairly confident they have an Advantage and you can calculate/quantify it within reason.

[AxelWolf]

Do you know that for sure?

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

It could look like this.

Lose 100k the first year with no profit. Win the 2nd year 50k profit(pay commission). Lose the 3rd year 100k... They Go for the 4th year. They continued to pay for his advice even though it was not profitable.

[coach belly]

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results.

Believe what you want, but EV applies to the wager, not to who makes the wager.

The calculation of EV is based on random results, are the results of athletic contests random over any number of trials?

[AxelWolf]

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results.

Believe what you want, but EV applies to the wager, not to who makes the wager.

The calculation of EV is based on random results, are the results of athletic contests random over any number of trials?

Yes the EV is based on the wagers. Knowing who or what has the ability to make +EV wagers can be based on the number of trials and results.

[AxelWolf]

Take note to :53

[kewlJ]

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

[coach belly]

Do you know that for sure?

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

They continued to pay for his advice even though it was not profitable.

That's not possible, the advisor is paid from the profits. If they paid, then they were profitable.

Whether the clients continue to pay for his advice has no bearing on how the commission is calculated.

They all start with no previous results...no advice, nothing lost, no profits, no commissions paid.

The money lost wagering is not paid to the advisor.

[accountinquestion]

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

I don't think we should keep holding that against redietz as it was only $500.

[coach belly]

Knowing who or what has the ability to make +EV wagers can be based on the number of trials and results.

That only applies to wagers where a random distribution of results is expected.

Are you talking about MDawg?

[coach belly]

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

Gossip.

Why do you ask, what have you heard, who did you hear it from?

[accountinquestion]

Take note to :53

This isn't always the case. There were some very valid pick services recently (5ish years) but they were more based on props which had weak lines.

It is also very hard to get in enough action. Having your clients bet for you alleviates that. It takes a pretty big bankroll to make much sports betting. The edges aren't particularly big but more importantly the frequency of positive wagers isn't very high.

Anyway not that I particularly disagree with you but throwing in my 2 cents.