Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew?

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

This usually does suck thinking you'll be able to see an important game, but you can't. The A's have exceeded my expectations, but I dont like watching them because no playoff potential.

[theywontpayontuesday]

A Brice Turang HR won me $550, would have liked a single extra run to hit a $2300 parlay including this home run but they failed. Astros beat the Yankees in top of 10th 5-3, so that was good. I keep hoping they shape back up soon. I must admit the Dodgers have been looking better lately, I have expected more from Toronto.

[kewlJ]

The shocker to me is the Cubs are now 5 games back of the Brewers and still fading. They have that 5 game series coming up in 10 days, but the Cubs might be 7-8 games back by then. They might need to sweep just to stay within shouting distance. And the Brewers haven't lost more than 2 games in a row in 10 weeks (which in itself is astonishing). What are the chances they will go to Chicago and lose 5 straight, or even 4 of 5? The Cubs fall has been mostly Pete Crow-Armstrong. For 3 months he looked like an MVP candidate. The last month, he looks like a guy that should be sent to the minors. He really is neither.

Yankees are really fading fast. 6.5 games back of Toronto now. Red Sox have pulled to within 3 of Toronto. I have such good odds with Boston, if it were only a two-team race, I could now hedge and make a good profit. But I can't risk that as long as the Yankees are within striking distance of winning the division. I don't really think they are, but can't risk it until they fall a few more games back.

My Phillies division bet (these are all win the division bets) is looking good. Mets, like the Yankees are fading right now. I could hedge and make decent guaranteed money right now, but don't think I need to right now. Maybe if the Mets start to show signs of life.

My one division bet that is showing no life right now is the Texas Rangers. That was an impulse wager when they were winning and scoring a lot of runs. I should have done a deeper analysis.

But all told, I am pretty sure I am going to make money on these 4 futures wagers. Maybe some big money. And the best part, is I will be playing through rollover requirements. If I broke even it would be a win, but I should make good money on top. The past couple months of baseball season have been really good to me, which is good because I was having kind of a down year sports betting prior to that.

[kewlJ]

Oh and the worst managerial decision of the day: Tampa Bay leading at Seattle 2-0 in bottom of 8th inning. Runners at 1st and second, 2 outs. Cal Raileigh at bat. That would be baseball homerun leader Cal Raileigh. I don't know if I would have intentionally walked the guy, but I certainly wouldn't have thrown anything near the plate. If he wants to swing....make him reach for something out of the strike zone that he can't hit out of the park. If he singles or walks, I will take my chances with Julio Rodriquez.

Of course, what they did was give Cal R a pitch to hit and hit it he did. 3 run homer. Game lost.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I was going to bet a Raleigh HR late but passed. Very much agreed on your division picks and thoughts. I'd like to know what broke with the Mets.

[kewlJ]

I'd like to know what broke with the Mets.

The Mets are the streakiest team I have seen. here are some streaks for this season:

April 2 - April 8, 6 straight wins
April 17- April 23, 7 straight wins
May 24 - June 2, 8 wins, 1 loss (8 of 9)
June 6 - June 12, 6 straight wins
June 13 - june 20, 7 straight losses
July 20 - July 27, 7 straight wins
Current 1 win 9 losses

And some of these streaks a good win streak directly preceded 7 or 8 straight losses.

Makes no sense. they will probably reel off 6-7 in a row next week. the Mets streakiness is why the division lead with the Phillies has flip flopped so many times.

But it now appears the Mets starting pitching is fairly weak. At the trade deadline they bolstered their relief pitching because they knew they can only get 4-5 innings from the starters. I think that is a recipe for disaster. Will over work the relievers.

I like my Phillies division wager, now that they acquired a closer, but if the Mets show signs of life again, I will hedge and guaranteed a win.

Odds this morning were Mets +300 and they were only 2.5 games back. They are now 3.5 back. Updated odds tomorrow will probably be +350 or more. At those odds I can hedge on the Mets and still make a ton of money, because I bought the Phillies when they were 3.5 and again at 5 games back.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Woke up this am to see the Brewers only +1000 to win the World Series. At the same time, the Astros are only +1400 so all my Houston bets are bad now. My +4000 Brewers world series winner bets have cash outs of 215%of bet but Astros +1000s worth 33% and +1200s worth 52%. So some good and some bad. Overall my futures are just barely better off than never buying them. They're all completely worthless if teams get eliminated, my choices then will be hard.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I wouldn't waste any money on the Mets but I can understand your hedge. It's so easy to assume the Mets will lose their next 2 against Milwaukee.

Oh yeah I wish I bet more on the Brewers best record in baseball +4000, my cash out option is over 10x my bet. When I had had the opportunity to bet them +1800, I felt it was too risky and never bet it more and instead decided to bet them more to win the pennant. If this sticks, and Schwarber overtakes the HR lead, I would imagine I would feel pretty good at the end of season. Yeah I didnt think I'd like baseball and now Ill miss it.

Im thinking I will hold all bets until the first round of playoffs are over, but idk yet. By my determination, Brewers should be +475 world series and +230 pennant. When those marks are hit, I will be triggered to take money off the table.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I have been betting Kyle Schwarber for NL MVP +650 about $200 after my initial small bet on him +400. The odds changed in the same day, I feel it's not a complete waste of money at least. The downside, isn't announced until season over. At that point it will either be icing on the cake or my only hope if I hold all these bets into the toilet.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I've changed my mind and I think betting against the Mets making the playoffs is a good bet at +400.

[kewlJ]

I've changed my mind and I think betting against the Mets making the playoffs is a good bet at +400.

Oh the Mets will make the playoffs. For them to not make the playoffs, either Miami, SF, StL or Cinncinati would have to overtake them and none of them are playoff teams. I guess of the 4 the Reds are the closest to a playoff team in my mind.

I have been betting Kyle Schwarber for NL MVP +650 about $200 after my initial small bet on him +400. The odds changed in the same day, I feel it's not a complete waste of money at least. The downside, isn't announced until season over. At that point it will either be icing on the cake or my only hope if I hold all these bets into the toilet.

I haven't given much thought to betting on individual awards like MLP and cy young. My criteria is a little different than some of the sports writers (that is who votes right?) I would want the MVP to not just have great numbers but to have actually lead his team to the division and/or playoffs. I don't want some dude with good numbers on a losing team. Schwarber certainly qualifies. As does Ohtani. But in the AL, I am not sure Judge qualifies (for me) anymore. They hold the last wildcard spot and probably will be overtaken by Cleveland shortly and knocked out of the playoffs.

I hold the same criteria for Cy Young. I know Skenes is the favorite right now. Great pitcher. Going to be in the conversation for years to come. But he currently has a losing record. I know some of that is very little run support, but I can't get on board with a cy young winner with a losing record on a team 20 games back in their division and 15 games back of the Wildcard. You gotta lead your team to something.

[kewlJ]

Looking at a list of Cy young winners, in my lifetime, I don't see many with losing records. A few relievers with 2-3 records, but a shit load of saves. I just don't see any starters with losing records. Now a little before my lifetime, I see Steve Carlton (who is legend among my older Philly friends). 27-10 on a team that won only 59 games. That is incredible. Doesn't meet my criteria of needing to lead your team to playoffs, but damn...would be hard not to vote for 27-10 on a team that wins 59.

[theywontpayontuesday]

If I had a lot of extra gambling money, I would make a nice bet against the Mets. The bet is not only against them in a downward spiral, but also on someone just winning their spot with unexceptional results. The only problem with the bets is it should have been obvious earlier but I didnt see it until it already revealed itself. I like the bet, I dont love it and can he happy either way. They had a players only meeting but unlikely to change anything.

[kewlJ]

I blame a lot of Mets problems on Soto. His numbers don't look horrible at .250 average, 27 HR and 65 RBI, but he comes up way short in the clutch with runners in scoring position. Last year with Yankees he batted about .350 with runners in scoring position. Last I looked he is about half that with the Mets, somewhere around .175

[theywontpayontuesday]

I blame a lot of Mets problems on Soto. His numbers don't look horrible at .250 average, 27 HR and 65 RBI, but he comes up way short in the clutch with runners in scoring position. Last year with Yankees he batted about .350 with runners in scoring position. Last I looked he is about half that with the Mets, somewhere around .175

Boomers Esiason chewed him out I read. You know it's probably something possible to happen, but +400 isn't sexy enough based on the risk. Raleigh and Otahlni both homered today and the Dodgers definitely made the Blue Jays look like a non contender against them even though they actually are. Are two lopsided victories enough to judge a future outcome, no but sometimes it can feel like enough evidence. It's enough to scare me thinking about them playing again( Dodgers and Brewers). It will be pertinent for me to at least watch their games at least once to look for clues about how l feel and what to think about. Im trying to think of a cashout strategy I have not figured out. I want to hold out for the division series. I think in my head I overestimated my payouts in a long time and the Astros seem trashy waiting for Paredes to rehab. There must be pitching coming back I hope soon because I get worried with Jason Alexander. My World Series picks are hard to imagine if LA dominates. I need to see trash make them look badly too often. They're earning their way through this season for sure. Their current win streak they are on is important because the length can be used to show strength after a previous winning streak. The goal would be one streak of 11 games and another the same or longer, then it demonstrates raw ability to win any game.The Mets did bomb a few but all solos, maybe tomorrow isn't so certain when they let base runners before.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Notice the Yankees and Mets are both being recognized for their lack of superiority. Yankees to make the playoffs -375, Yankees to miss the playoffs +250. The Mets to make the playoffs -400, the Mets to miss the playoffs +260. So the odds are near 80%/20% for both.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Bet $1000 when the Brewers were down 2-0 +185. They're down 6-3 now, still plenty of game left.

[theywontpayontuesday]

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

[kewlJ]

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

Congrats. Good call. I considered making a similar live bet a couple times including when it was 5-0, but I just don't really make those kind of longshot wagers, even though the entire game had a feel like the Mets would find a way to blow it. AND THEY DID!

Right smack in the middle of a division and playoff race and the Mets have completely collapsed, losing 7 in a row and 11 of 12, including blowing a 5 run lead. Somebody should be fired. I guess you can't since they are still hanging on to the last wild card spot, but their manager just looks lost. Like he has no clue.

Tough times in the big Apple as the Yankees are in nearly identical situation, having blown the division lead and now barely hanging on to the final wildcard spot. Aaron Boone at least pretended to be outraged at a balls/strike call, and got tossed, hoping to fire up his team. It didn't work.

[theywontpayontuesday]

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

Congrats. Good call. I considered making a similar live bet a couple times including when it was 5-0, but I just don't really make those kind of longshot wagers, even though the entire game had a feel like the Mets would find a way to blow it. AND THEY DID!

Right smack in the middle of a division and playoff race and the Mets have completely collapsed, losing 7 in a row and 11 of 12, including blowing a 5 run lead. Somebody should be fired. I guess you can't since they are still hanging on to the last wild card spot, but their manager just looks lost. Like he has no clue.

Tough times in the big Apple as the Yankees are in nearly identical situation, having blown the division lead and now barely hanging on to the final wildcard spot. Aaron Boone at least pretended to be outraged at a balls/strike call, and got tossed, hoping to fire up his team. It didn't work.

Yeah they're that good, .612 against >.500 teams, which is better than any team in baseball against everybody, champ and sucker. I had egg ready on my face, my unbelievers thought they had had me. I told them you have never won money in your life and have never been successful as a gambler, so dont tell me you know before the game the Brewers would lose because you claim pregame they were +115. It did turn out to be a reason to lack confidence I didnt know about, Yellich and Turang didnt start. Turang came in late to play and Yellich took the day off. Hats off to Contreras, he definitely plays well like a World Series champ. I'm betting big tomorrow too, regardless of the payout, Ill bet anything -250 or longer all year. Imo they're actually a .700 team, so there is where the line comes from I shouldn't bet.