Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

So, I am growing concerned about my Phillies. Not really about the wager I have for them to win the division. I think that is fairly safe because the Mets have starting pitching problems of their own which will prevent them from reeling off a bunch of wins in a row. And if it does tighten up in the final 6 weeks, I can hedge that wager and still make a nice profit.

What I am concerned about is the Phillies going very far in the playoffs. I don't have a wager on a deep run (pennant or WS), I am just a fan in that regard. The Phillies are currently the second lowest odds to win the WS behind only the Dodgers, @ +500, they are even lower than the Brewers, which I don't agree with.

The reason the Phillies are such a favorite, is because they were built for a deep playoff run with 3 good starting pitchers along with good hitting. But all of the sudden their starting pitchers have some cracks. Wheeler is on the IR with a blood clot. Who knows how long that will be. he wasn't dominating in his last few starts anyway as he was most of the year. Ranger Suarez, is also all of the sudden getting hit around. Only Christopher Sanchez seems sound at the moment. Lazardo is a decent #3 or #4 pitcher.

I think the Phillies were hoping Aaron Nola could get back in the mix contributing, but his first start back from a long IR stint today was a disaster. Gave up 6 runs in the top of the 3rd inning and only lasted 2 & 1/3. #5 starter, Taijuan Walker is decent one game, terrible the next (that is why he is a #5) and not the kind of guy you want to count on in the playoffs.

So we will see, but at the moment, one of their strengths, starting pitching has some big cracks.

In early September they will play Milwaukee. They'll be tough or easy, we'll find out which version of the Phillies shows up.

[theywontpayontuesday]

After seeing today's game, makes me think the Brewers could sweep the Cubs. Im thinking I will bet on that by continuing to bet all proceeds until I hit max bet on my account which would be $36,000. That's so crazy, but first they need to win tonight again and we'll take it from there. Tonight Im betting Padres -150 at home versus the SF Giants, the Houston Astros $100 +130 at Detroit, $100 on the Phillies(-115) at home versus the Seattle Mariners and $1400 on the Brewers at Chicago with some bets +105 and about half -105 with pitchers TBD.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I was wrong about my max bet, it's probably about $8000.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I was wrong about my max bet, it's probably about $8000 but Im not absolutely sure. It might depend on the team and lines. For tonight's Blue Jays (-115) at Detroit, says maximum bet is $33000 when I've already bet $1000 and $6000 when I have already bet Brewers over $1000.

[kewlJ]

I didn't see game 1 of the brewers/cubs doubleheader as I was out doing some things. But any hope of the cubs sweeping these 5 games and getting back into the division race is now gone. Game 2 scheduled for about an hour probably won't get played today if the weather forecast is correct.

It is kind of stunning how far and fast the cubs have fallen. A big part of it was the brewers have won like 40 some out of 50 some games. No team could keep pace with that. But there is a little more to it than that. First 80 games of the season (1/2 season) the cubs were scoring better than 6 runs a game (average). Now they are scoring like 2. Tucker can't buy a hit and Crow-Armstrong who had an amazing 1st half, kind of out of the blue, has come back to form.

Cubs have pitching problems like so many teams. But their first half covered a lot of that up. If you are scoring 8, 9 runs a game, you don't notice so much that you pitchers are giving up 5 runs routinely. But start scoring only 2 or 3 runs a game and it becomes glaring. Like many people, I sort of missed it until it was blatantly obvious.

Cubs should hang on for a wildcard spot. But I wouldn't expect them to do too much in the playoffs.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Yes the game was canceled. I immediately started with impulse bets in the mean time. Red Sox live -120 $400, Rockies +230 $400 and I increased my bet on the Padrss to $400. Unfortunately Im already behind with the Red Sox 1-0, so those boys better start hitting in tandem to match the Orioles

[theywontpayontuesday]

Luckily the Rockies bailed out all those bets, seems they all lost including the Padres going into the 9th 4-3 losing.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Cubs really haven't been putting up many runs for a long time, this is definitely right. The Brewers are really going to easily outmatch them. Im never comfortable taking the under now the Brewers scoring machine is on.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I had the Rockies on simple parlays with Brewers and overs in Brewers. Im in for quite a bit already, I dont know if I want to invest more into the Rockies or the Brewers. I think bet on juggernaut, no fear, try to maintain the highest bets possible and be able to keep betting through losses. It should be 10 bets, maybe 5 or 3, but I try to go with 2 consecutive losses can kill me amd force me to have smaller bets.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Since I insist the Brewers are a .750 team, this means they would have a 17% chance to sweep the Cubs.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Astros haven't been great in a long time, I can barely say they're good. Hopefully other returning players including Isaac Paredes will give them a spark. They're just a wild card team it seems which means more risk necessary to make it far. I dont see them with good pitching now.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Oh that blows. Andrew Vaughn's error and that Canandian red headed right fielder cost them the game.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I've lost interest now. It's too bad Isaac Collins couldnt plan that baby to come after the season lol.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I'm not betting anymore the streak is over. Other streaks and sweeps should continue. The Dodgers won against the Rockies; it was nice thinking maybe they won't beat up on bad teams and maybe they'll struggle. So even if tie breakers didn't matter, I would hate to play Chicago in the first round, but even if so, the majority of games will be in Milwaukee. Definitely going to be hoping for the underdogs until they meet Milwaukee.

[kewlJ]

I too am done betting baseball. I had a really good run betting baseball the past couple months. A lot of that was betting overs during a 7 week period when temps were in the 90's everywhere and the ball was jumping. But I have done fairly well tagging along with the picks at Covers.com. They ran really hot for about a month. I also didn't do bad with my own picks based on simulations

I have 4 futures bets on divisions winners, 2 have a real good chance to be winners. Still holding out hope that the Red Sox will get hot again. So I can just watch these teams for the next couple of weeks without betting. And when I get back from a trip in 2 weeks, it will be time to start betting the NFL and particularly the first 2 weeks underdog angle.

[MDawg]

What we DO know about UNKewlJ is that he is just as much of a

thieving lying low down no good varmint.

in person as he is online.

His own family booted him from the familial household, what does that tell you?

Is there anyone on these forums more universally despised than the UNKewl one? Doubtful.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I too am done betting baseball. I had a really good run betting baseball the past couple months. A lot of that was betting overs during a 7 week period when temps were in the 90's everywhere and the ball was jumping. But I have done fairly well tagging along with the picks at Covers.com. They ran really hot for about a month. I also didn't do bad with my own picks based on simulations

I have 4 futures bets on divisions winners, 2 have a real good chance to be winners. Still holding out hope that the Red Sox will get hot again. So I can just watch these teams for the next couple of weeks without betting. And when I get back from a trip in 2 weeks, it will be time to start betting the NFL and particularly the first 2 weeks underdog angle.

I lost $1800 on the Brewers tonight and bet $500 Mets +290 to not make playoffs. I hope the Brewers dont start slumping like all the idiots keep saying.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I too am done betting baseball. I had a really good run betting baseball the past couple months. A lot of that was betting overs during a 7 week period when temps were in the 90's everywhere and the ball was jumping. But I have done fairly well tagging along with the picks at Covers.com. They ran really hot for about a month. I also didn't do bad with my own picks based on simulations

I have 4 futures bets on divisions winners, 2 have a real good chance to be winners. Still holding out hope that the Red Sox will get hot again. So I can just watch these teams for the next couple of weeks without betting. And when I get back from a trip in 2 weeks, it will be time to start betting the NFL and particularly the first 2 weeks underdog angle.

I lost $1800 on the Brewers tonight and bet $500 Mets +290 to not make playoffs. I hope the Brewers dont start slumping like all the idiots keep saying. I really like the Mets not making the playoffs, might bet more. The Reds do have a harder schedule, but not by much.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Brewers won 4-1, it was a good day, but only bet $1000.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Astros(-340) are playing the Rockies(+ 270 )at home tonight with both pitchers listed as TBD. -340 is the highest pre-game line I've seen all year and to me, it isn't justified and doesnt make sense. I assume this means I should bet Colorado, but I haven't made up my mind yet.