Professional Sportsbetting

[AxelWolf]

I'd rather HS bet my money though. Redietz doesn't even get why EV is a well used concept because he has bet softer contests all his life. You find the best picks and go from there. Therr is no concept of not betting because you don't have positive expectation.

It's very possible I missed it somewhere, but has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games? No, I'm not asking for the supposed secret sauce. I'm wondering, does he use compex computer programs, power ratings, gut feelings based on years of experience, flips coins and guesses, uses a tout service?

[Don Perignom]

It's very possible I missed it somewhere, but has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games?

He flips a coin.

[redietz]

It's very possible I missed it somewhere, but has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games?

He flips a coin.

I must have mentioned how I do things half a dozen times on this forum. It has nothing to do with coin flips. It's all about a dartboard and skill and ingesting hallucinogenics before undertaking the tossing of the darts. It helps immensely to have post-its with the names of teams already inscribed on them (to put on the dartboard, of course). Barring that, I rely on stuffed animals taped to the dartboard, representing various mascots.

I was going to answer this somewhat seriously, but I mean, why? The lack of respect is comical for someone who has done this, in the public eye, published in advance, actually on newsstands. And done it well, publicly, for five decades.

As opposed to the forum "APs" who have done nothing in plain view, and been vetted by no one, and bring up novice ideas vis-a-vis sports betting as if they've stumbled onto the Golden Fleece.

Darts, and post-its, and occasionally stuffed animals. Now do I toss the darts right or left-handed, and with my eyes open or closed? Only an "AP" would know for sure.

And if anyone is counting: Week One -- Profit. Week Two -- Profit. Week Three -- Profit. Week Four -- Upcoming, but with an open teaser thanks to the Monday Night Over, off to a good start.

[accountinquestion]

It's very possible I missed it somewhere, but has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games?

He flips a coin.

I must have mentioned how I do things half a dozen times on this forum. It has nothing to do with coin flips. It's all about a dartboard and skill and ingesting hallucinogenics before undertaking the tossing of the darts. It helps immensely to have post-its with the names of teams already inscribed on them (to put on the dartboard, of course). Barring that, I rely on stuffed animals taped to the dartboard, representing various mascots.

I was going to answer this somewhat seriously, but I mean, why? The lack of respect is comical for someone who has done this, in the public eye, published in advance, actually on newsstands. And done it well, publicly, for five decades.

As opposed to the forum "APs" who have done nothing in plain view, and been vetted by no one, and bring up novice ideas vis-a-vis sports betting as if they've stumbled onto the Golden Fleece.

Darts, and post-its, and occasionally stuffed animals. Now do I toss the darts right or left-handed, and with my eyes open or closed? Only an "AP" would know for sure.

And if anyone is counting: Week One -- Profit. Week Two -- Profit. Week Three -- Profit. Week Four -- Upcoming, but with an open teaser thanks to the Monday Night Over, off to a good start.

APs are too smart for your bullshit, brother. Thats really what is going on. And you can't deal with it.

[Half Smoke]

And if anyone is counting: Week One -- Profit. Week Two -- Profit. Week Three -- Profit. Week Four -- Upcoming, but with an open teaser thanks to the Monday Night Over, off to a good start.

say what -?

how do you have a profit for Week 2 Two and Week Three - ?

tonight is the first game of Week 2

by weeks 1, 2, and 3 do you mean the pre-season-?

then what is Week Four -? - Week One of the actual season where the games actually count - ?

you must be the only person in the world who calls Week One of the actual NFL season Week Four

but then you state Week Four is upcoming

maybe you mean Week Five is upcoming by the way you count them - idk

when in everybody else's reality Week Two is upcoming

you seem to be quite confused



.

edit - I thought I might have made a mistake - that he was posting about college - but this is only week Three upcoming for college ball starting tonight - and there was no Monday night college game this past Monday


.

[kewlJ]

edit - I thought I might have made a mistake - that he was posting about college - but this is only week Three upcoming for college ball starting tonight - and there was no Monday night college game this past Monday
.

Allow me to translate for you Half Smoke. The person that Posts as redeitz, frequently calls himself "a college football specialist" or similar terminology. So his reference to weeks 1, 2 and 3 are indeed a reference to college football. Now to the rest of the college football world that first week (august 23) is NOT week 1. Officially it is week ZERO, and counted as part of week 1 (August 30). Why a college football specialist doesn't know this is odd. But the answer probably lies with Redeitz being a tout. Counting those few games on Augusts 23 weekend as a separate week, allows him to claim an extra winning week in selling to his "clients". THAT is what it is about with a tout.

Now the open teaser from Monday night football was a reference to the NFL Monday night game. BUT the problem with that open teaser and frankly ALL of Red's claims including weeks 1, 2 and 3 (by his count) is that all of those picks are past posted. THAT means never mentioned until after the game. (Same as the open teaser).

Again, this all comes back to Redeitz being a tout. THIS is what Touts do. "Hey I won this, that and the other last week, so you should buy my picks".

[AxelWolf]

It's very possible I missed it somewhere, but has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games?

He flips a coin.

I must have mentioned how I do things half a dozen times on this forum. It has nothing to do with coin flips. It's all about a dartboard and skill and ingesting hallucinogenics before undertaking the tossing of the darts. It helps immensely to have post-its with the names of teams already inscribed on them (to put on the dartboard, of course). Barring that, I rely on stuffed animals taped to the dartboard, representing various mascots.

I was going to answer this somewhat seriously, but I mean, why? The lack of respect is comical for someone who has done this, in the public eye, published in advance, actually on newsstands. And done it well, publicly, for five decades.

As opposed to the forum "APs" who have done nothing in plain view, and been vetted by no one, and bring up novice ideas vis-a-vis sports betting as if they've stumbled onto the Golden Fleece.

Darts, and post-its, and occasionally stuffed animals. Now do I toss the darts right or left-handed, and with my eyes open or closed? Only an "AP" would know for sure.

And if anyone is counting: Week One -- Profit. Week Two -- Profit. Week Three -- Profit. Week Four -- Upcoming, but with an open teaser thanks to the Monday Night Over, off to a good start.

I asked a legitimate question and got a bullshit answer. You can say this and that about Advantage Player's, but If you asked me and most other legitimate AP's a legitimate question about AP, I and others probably would answer. No we are not going to give away all the details of everything but it would be enough to figure out approximately the EV and how to go about it. I'll give an example later..

[Half Smoke]

BUT the problem with that open teaser and frankly ALL of Red's claims including weeks 1, 2 and 3 (by his count) is that all of those picks are past posted. THAT means never mentioned until after the game.

Again, this all comes back to Redeitz being a tout. THIS is what Touts do. "Hey I won this, that and the other last week, so you should buy my picks".

exactly

every other day he brags about his winning picks after the games are over

and he rarely loses, or if he does, his winnings are always much greater than his losses

it's truly amaaaaazing

.

[MisterV]

it's truly amaaaaazing.

No, it's just how he's trolled you guys for years...

[coach belly]

I asked a legitimate question and got a bullshit answer.

Just to be clear...Is your grievance with Don P?

has Red ever mentioned exactly how he handicaps games?

He flips a coin.

[coach belly]

he rarely loses, or if he does, his winnings are always much greater than his losses

Isn't that what the APs do?

If they talk about their plays, it's after they are over.

And if/when they take a loss, they always claim overall winnings are much greater than their losses.

Where you been? When did this behavior become so amazing?

Do you expect some pros to reveal their plays, while giving others get a pass?

[redietz]

BUT the problem with that open teaser and frankly ALL of Red's claims including weeks 1, 2 and 3 (by his count) is that all of those picks are past posted. THAT means never mentioned until after the game.

Again, this all comes back to Redeitz being a tout. THIS is what Touts do. "Hey I won this, that and the other last week, so you should buy my picks".

exactly

every other day he brags about his winning picks after the games are over

and he rarely loses, or if he does, his winnings are always much greater than his losses

it's truly amaaaaazing

.

Except I was monitored by third parties for decades, and my Wise Guys plays were on newsstands for, what, 30 years. Hard to fake that.

Also, and I know the local geniuses realize this, I have clients who are partners and have had them for about two decades. Now these partners know about this forum. So either I have kept everyone I've partnered with happy for decades, or they would, one would think, eventually have something to say on this forum were I bullshitting in any way, shape, or form.

For example, I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, and I'm ahead Week Four thus far. I have clients who have had all those plays, and they all had the same plays. This isn't easy, and it's not "Trust me; I'm an AP; I win all the time" bullshit. It's skill. And knowledge. And experience.

Meanwhile, in another test of skill, I'm in 58th out of a couple thousand in the Heritage Race to the Super Bowl. I have the forum "APs," in part, to thank for that. I didn't realize so many self-anointed geniuses decided Week One and Two NFL underdogs were the way to go. I figured if the forum "APs" were doing it, every trendsvestite in the country was probably on to it. So I used them as the proverbial reverse touts. Much appreciated. Let's see if I crack the top 10 this week at Heritagesports.eu.

[mickeycrimm]

BUT the problem with that open teaser and frankly ALL of Red's claims including weeks 1, 2 and 3 (by his count) is that all of those picks are past posted. THAT means never mentioned until after the game.

Again, this all comes back to Redeitz being a tout. THIS is what Touts do. "Hey I won this, that and the other last week, so you should buy my picks".

exactly

every other day he brags about his winning picks after the games are over

and he rarely loses, or if he does, his winnings are always much greater than his losses

it's truly amaaaaazing

.

Except I was monitored by third parties for decades, and my Wise Guys plays were on newsstands for, what, 30 years. Hard to fake that.

Also, and I know the local geniuses realize this, I have clients who are partners and have had them for about two decades. Now these partners know about this forum. So either I have kept everyone I've partnered with happy for decades, or they would, one would think, eventually have something to say on this forum were I bullshitting in any way, shape, or form.

For example, I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, and I'm ahead Week Four thus far. I have clients who have had all those plays, and they all had the same plays. This isn't easy, and it's not "Trust me; I'm an AP; I win all the time" bullshit. It's skill. And knowledge. And experience.

Meanwhile, in another test of skill, I'm in 58th out of a couple thousand in the Heritage Race to the Super Bowl. I have the forum "APs," in part, to thank for that. I didn't realize so many self-anointed geniuses decided Week One and Two NFL underdogs were the way to go. I figured if the forum "APs" were doing it, every trendsvestite in the country was probably on to it. So I used them as the proverbial reverse touts. Much appreciated. Let's see if I crack the top 10 this week at Heritagesports.eu.

Lets hear some testimonials from your clients.

[kewlJ]

So we are talking about Dietz's claims of winning weeks 1, 2 and 3 (of which there really have only been two) and how he hasn't posted a single pick before the game, but tells us after the fact that he won or has an open teaser, and his response is "well 40 years ago.....".

I am done with this dude. Yeah Dietz, you are the greatest sports bettor the world has ever seen and that's why you need "clients" and other people's money to make money.

[accountinquestion]

exactly

every other day he brags about his winning picks after the games are over

and he rarely loses, or if he does, his winnings are always much greater than his losses

it's truly amaaaaazing

.

Except I was monitored by third parties for decades, and my Wise Guys plays were on newsstands for, what, 30 years. Hard to fake that.

Also, and I know the local geniuses realize this, I have clients who are partners and have had them for about two decades. Now these partners know about this forum. So either I have kept everyone I've partnered with happy for decades, or they would, one would think, eventually have something to say on this forum were I bullshitting in any way, shape, or form.

For example, I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, and I'm ahead Week Four thus far. I have clients who have had all those plays, and they all had the same plays. This isn't easy, and it's not "Trust me; I'm an AP; I win all the time" bullshit. It's skill. And knowledge. And experience.

Meanwhile, in another test of skill, I'm in 58th out of a couple thousand in the Heritage Race to the Super Bowl. I have the forum "APs," in part, to thank for that. I didn't realize so many self-anointed geniuses decided Week One and Two NFL underdogs were the way to go. I figured if the forum "APs" were doing it, every trendsvestite in the country was probably on to it. So I used them as the proverbial reverse touts. Much appreciated. Let's see if I crack the top 10 this week at Heritagesports.eu.

Lets hear some testimonials from your clients.

lol

[MDawg]

A high pitched soft whine, ever rising in frequency and volume.

[jdaewoo]

This retard doesn't gamble.

[kewlJ]

This is week 2 of the 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play. This play has NOT lost in 15 years. (3 even years and 12 winning years). Last week I went 7-7 with two pickem games that I didn't play. this week I also have two pickem or 1 point games that I saw no advantage in playing, the Eagles/KC and Denver/colts. So after Thursday night's loss, I am 7-8 with 13 games remaining.

I bet this play heavily, in addition to maxing out my online accounts, I spread significant money at a number of sportsbooks in Vegas. I know Redeitz is desperately hoping favorites win and cover so he can make some stupid comment about it not being a winning play. But I just want to pre-emptively say that whether this play shows a small win or a loss this year changes nothing about this play for me. I believe based on 15 years of results, that it is +EV. It will take more than 1 losing year in 16 to change my mind.

It would like going out and counting cards and having a losing day and saying "see counting cards doesn't work", when we know it does.

Good luck to those playing this play.

[MDawg]

Get help.

You are a fascinating person in a lot of ways but it has nothing to do with your gambling.

[Rob.Singer]

This is week 2 of the 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play. This play has NOT lost in 15 years. (3 even years and 12 winning years). Last week I went 7-7 with two pickem games that I didn't play. this week I also have two pickem or 1 point games that I saw no advantage in playing, the Eagles/KC and Denver/colts. So after Thursday night's loss, I am 7-8 with 13 games remaining.

I bet this play heavily, in addition to maxing out my online accounts, I spread significant money at a number of sportsbooks in Vegas. I know Redeitz is desperately hoping favorites win and cover so he can make some stupid comment about it not being a winning play. But I just want to pre-emptively say that whether this play shows a small win or a loss this year changes nothing about this play for me. I believe based on 15 years of results, that it is +EV. It will take more than 1 losing year in 16 to change my mind.

It would like going out and counting cards and having a losing day and saying "see counting cards doesn't work", when we know it does.

Good luck to those playing this play.

Kew, you're "+EV" here is rationalized by hope and not math. In-general past results have nothing to do with what may or may not happen with dogs during individual games today. You should know better.

Use your head: the game in KC today for example--you're shying away from it because of the tiny spread. But there is good value in this game. Right now the Eagles are -1.5 favs. You bet on them and you're getting a whole lot of that +EV you like to say you know about.

KC's best two wideouts are out today, Philly destroyed KC in the SB, Kelce has famous tits & ass & billions on his mind constantly, and Mahomes has been on a downward slide for the last 2+ years. Even if Rice and Worthy were playing Philly would cover.