ASM revisited again!

[kewlJ]

And there is nothing even uniform for each particular casinos.

Some give different amounts for the exact same coin in to females over males for example. Some give more to people with Asian names. Some give more to out of town than locals. Some give different amounts to different certain zip codes, based on average incomes.

And some will give different amount to the exact same player for the exact same coin-in. It is very common for a casino to drop the amount for the same coin in and see if they can get you to come back for a lesser amount.

Some of these "targeted" offers should probably be illegal, but either way, you are demonstrating FAR beyond any doubt that YOU know nothing about the subject matter.

[coach belly]

You are making some generalization about 8 years worth of coin-in and what it generated at 40 different casinos.

I'm examining a scenario provided by expert testimony.

I'll just say this: One should be able to "easily" find places that will generate 50% of your coin-in back in free play.

[coach belly]

And there is nothing even uniform for each particular casinos.

I'm using numbers that you provided.

[kewlJ]

I have told you a dozen times, I don't have the records for which you are asking. You are using a guesstimate and getting yourself all worked up over it.

[kewlJ]

And here is another thing. For some odd reason, you have chosen to lump 8 years worth of this play together. But even from year to year, the amounts are different. We were getting far more for our coin in towards the beginning than towards the last year or two, when casinos had already started cutting back.

And no offense to Wolf, he is trying to answer your questions, not really intending to be involved in your trolling game, but when he says a player should be able to find this or do this, he is talking about himself a very experienced player with this type of play. When I started, I wasn't experienced in how this worked. I had to figure it all out. What coin in generated what and where. Mostly trial and error.

Again, you are demonstrating FAR beyond any doubt that YOU know nothing about the subject matter. And then making all kinds of guesses and assumption. If you attempted to present this "gottch ya" case in court, it would be thrown out.

keep trying though. It makes for funny reading of a guy trying to prove something he knows nothing about.

[coach belly]

I have told you a dozen times, I don't have the records for which you are asking. You are using a guesstimate and getting yourself all worked up over it.

You seem all worked up to me.

I'm relying on expert testimony to examine a typical mail play.

Why is that a problem?

We are not able to fully examine the specifics of your situation, because you won't provide complete information, so I'll rely on the info provided by an expert.

You keep writing that your play was on VP, so the RTP for both the initial wager and FP should be way better than 90%, but you estimated 90%.

You reported an $800K loss on the coin-in, generating $1.5M in FP.

If you explain what games were played, then we can estimate what the coin-in was, otherwise I'll use the expert's info.

I have always said that I averaged about 75-80K from blackjack for those years and another 20-25k from my share of our mailer VP machine play.

[coach belly]

And here is another thing. For some odd reason, you have chosen to lump 8 years worth of this play together. But even from year to year, the amounts are different.

We don't have any year-to-year data, so we use the data provided and examine the totality of the play, using averages.

The math still works with averages...you do understand that don't you?

After all, there are no sessions...it's all one session.

[Rob.Singer]

There are many, many places where free play is generated on losses.

Is that a standard offer, or a special promotion?

Regarding standard freeplay offers, can you estimate what total wager would be required to generate $1million in freeplay? For this exercise, let's assume the offers are competitive among the various casinos and their affiliated properties.

Young Mendelson recently wrote of a 2-day trip to GVR, where his total wager was approximately $200K. How much FP can he expect to be offered from that total wager?

No, I'm not talking about any special promotion. There are many such places, and the amounts you will generate is all over the map depending on the casino. They are also casinos that do a combination of both coin-in and losses; there are casinos that do either/or. IE X amount of coin in will get you X amount, or X amount of losses will get you X amount, or X amount of coin in plus X amount of losses with get you X amount.

And things are always changing, one month it could be one thing, and suddenly they change things.

I have no clue what it would take to generate 1 million in free play from one location, I have never attempted such a thing; even if possible, there are just too many things that can go wrong. Imagine giving up $300,000 in EV expecting to get a million back in free play, only to get 86ed.

There's usually a cap that will be automatically generated; anything above that would probably be on a case-by-case basis, determined by an executive host.

Green Valley Ranch has never been super good regarding high amounts of free play. I have not put much time in there attempting to generate free play.

It's hard to say what Mendoson GVR will get since there are too many different factors, such as his previous play, what types of games he played, how much he won or lost, and what their cap is.

There's usually a sweet spot that will earn you the maximum auto-generated free play offers while giving up the least amount on the machines in the least amount of time.

GVR is not generous with their freeplay offers after running thru $200k for those living out-of-state, and if you win it'll be even less. All stations operate the same as SP.

Getting several million in FP is just another kew pile of BS. His stories never add up. If he had the resources to get "millions in FP" he wouldnt be fabricating stories about "winning $100k in bj year after year after year". And why do you think he's been posting so many longass essays after being challenged by coach on this? BECAUSE HE WAS BACKED INTO THAT SAME OLD FAMILIAR CORNER YET AGAIN.

[MDawg]

UNKewlJ doesn't play much blackjack anyway, he is a male prostitute who plays a lil blackjack as cover for his sugar daddy ploys. This was observed personally by MaxPen and AxelWolf, and other APs, and documented through investigation by SeedValue.

[kewlJ]

GVR is not generous with their freeplay offers after running thru $200k for those living out-of-state, and if you win it'll be even less. All stations operate the same as SP.

Stations, Boyd and other local properties give "more" to out of towners, but offers will be heavier on rooms, and less on FP. Come on man, even you should know that.

That is why out of towners, that visit Vegas regularly, often use a box from a mail service (not P.O. Box) to get the better FP offers. If you are out of town and need room offers then have a second account or a spouse account with the out of town address. OR you could just designate one property for the out of town room heavier offers and use a local Vegas address for the rest.

[AxelWolf]

it took a few months to collect the free play

Is that a typical time period required to cash all FP out generated from an initial seed wager, and complete the play?

Does this mean that the loss incurred shouldn't be expected to be recovered for at least some months after the initial wager, and any profit shouldn't be expected to be available as cash until some months after the initial loss is recovered?

I'm asking about a typical scenario. It's understood that the player can be made whole, and a profit cashed out, from playing off the first $50 of FP, if they happen to hit a $100K jackpot.

Again, it depends on the location and the size of the free play offers. Some places you need to pick up free play daily, sometimes it's 2 or 3 times a week, sometimes it's once a week.

It might take 1-3 months before the offer even comes in. Sometimes, if you time it right and know what the mailing cycle is, you can get it sooner, perhaps around 15 days.

But let's say something costs you $1,500 in EV, and the free play amounts are $500 3 times a week, it's going to take you 2 or 3 weeks before the offers can be picked up. It will take 4 pickups to be profitable. The rest will be profit, perhaps the offers will last for 2 months before they drop down or end.

If done right and under the right circumstances, you won't/won't even give up any EV earning or picking up the offeres. But generally, that's going to be much more time-consuming.

PS. Some free play pick up cycles can last 6 months.

[kewlJ]

Again, it depends on the location and the size of the free play offers. Some places you need to pick up free play daily, sometimes it's 2 or 3 times a week, sometimes it's once a week.

It might take 1-3 months before the offer even comes in. Sometimes, if you time it right and know what the mailing cycle is, you can get it sooner, perhaps around 15 days.

But let's say something costs you $1,500 in EV, and the free play amounts are $500 3 times a week, it's going to take you 2 or 3 weeks before the offers can be picked up. It will take 4 pickups to be profitable. The rest will be profit, perhaps the offers will last for 2 months before they drop down or end.

If done right and under the right circumstances, you won't/won't even give up any EV earning or picking up the offeres. But generally, that's going to be much more time-consuming.

PS. Some free play pick up cycles can last 6 months.

Axelwolf, what Belly is looking for from you is for you to say something he thinks is in conflict with something I have said. You have explained it many times now, That it is different by casino, by amount you are talking about, whatever year or time period you are talking about, plus about a dozen more factors. BUT THAT isn't what he wants to hear.

I can appreciate your comments that start out "under the right circumstances or right conditions.....", but I almost with you wouldn't say that, because Belly is going to use that to jump on me. "Axelwolf said....". When what you said may be very true for you, an experienced player for whatever time you were talking about, but very different for me who was figuring most of this out on my own and talking about a very different time period.

You know the belly game Axel.

[coach belly]

Getting several million in FP is just another kew pile of BS. His stories never add up. If he had the resources to get "millions in FP" he wouldnt be fabricating stories about "winning $100k in bj year after year after year".

That's what I wrote earlier, if his total FP was easily several millions of dollars, then he would have made more money from 8 years of FP mail play, than in 20+ years of Blackjack.

Of course the amount of FP changed several times in this thread....

probably earned and played 100's of thousands of dollars in FP between the two of us.

Our total FP played had to easily be several millions of dollars in FP played.

whatever that amount, a million, million and a half in Free play

First lets move that number back to 1.5 million. And that isn't me changing the story. As I explained roughly off the top of my head figuring the number of mailers we received each month and the amounts of the offers, I said 2 million.

His wheel of lies finally landed on 1.5M, so he back-filled the data to make that number line up with the earlier lies he told.

I have always said that I averaged about 75-80K from blackjack for those years and another 20-25k from my share of our mailer VP machine play.

[MDawg]

kewlJ has been a whiner, a liar, a hypocrite, and a pain in the ass on many occasions

[AxelWolf]

One should be able to "easily" find places that will generate 50% of your coin-in back in free play.

So under this scenario, if the total FP generated is $1.5M, then the total wager (coin-in) would have been $3M.

If the FP was converted to cash at the rate of 90%, then it's reasonable to assume that the RTP on the coin-in was 90% as well.

So a 10% loss on a $3M total wager would be $300K.

That is to say, one could reasonably expect to generate $1.5M in FP from a $3M total wager, with an expected loss of $300K, and an overall profit on the play of $1.05M.

Is that an accurate summary of the math of an AP mail play?

The math is the math. I don't know what else there is to say about that. As far as it being an accurate summary of an AP mail play, I suppose it could be; however, that would take a very special situation, or it would require multiple cards or take a long time over a lot of casinos. And don't ask me to guess how long that would take using only one or two cards, over how many casinos. I don't care to think about it.

Oh, and one more thing, it doesn't matter how well you know the system, eventually shit goes wrong, you don't get as much as you were expecting, cards get cut off, things change, you might get caught and 86ed, and a myriad of other problems can come along.

[MDawg]

The truth is … UNKewlJ hasn’t spent 20 years playing blackjack. He’s spent 20 years trying to convince people that he’s been playing blackjack.

Add to that the fact that nothing

UNKewlJ ever posted has been proven to be true. Plenty has been proven to be false but absolutely nothing he has claimed or posted about has been verified or even backed up in any way other than that he plays some very low stakes video poker and red to green blackjack as obvious sugar daddy ploy (ploy, not play) cover. Someone playing twenty years and no corroboration of any of what he'd like us to believe? Pfft.

and you see clearly the real picture of a nobody, who'd like us to think he's done something other than peddled his behind.

I'm rather certain he has money from something he feels shame over.
Most likely a prostitute

Pretending to be some hero AP gives him purpose and a sense of accomplishment.

[coach belly]

Does this mean that the loss incurred shouldn't be expected to be recovered for at least some months after the initial wager, and any profit shouldn't be expected to be available as cash until some months after the initial loss is recovered?

It might take 1-3 months before the offer even comes in. Sometimes, if you time it right and know what the mailing cycle is, you can get it sooner, perhaps around 15 days.

But let's say something costs you $1,500 in EV, and the free play amounts are $500 3 times a week, it's going to take you 2 or 3 weeks before the offers can be picked up. It will take 4 pickups to be profitable. The rest will be profit.

In other words..."yes coach, that is correct"

[kewlJ]

That's what I wrote earlier, if his total FP was easily several millions of dollars, then he would have made more money from 8 years of FP mail play, than in 20+ years of Blackjack.

No even close to true. It just isn't. You are trying to twist things all up.

We (combined) probably made a profit of around $550K to $600k for the 8 years.

I have always said that we probably were not the most efficient at it. Someone like Axel would surely have made much more putting through the same coin at the same casinos just because he knew what he was doing, while I was figuring it out. And it was me figuring it out. My partner played the machines, coin-in and play through the FP, but it was me calling the shots and figuring it out for our little partnership, and it just wasn't top priority to me. It was a supplemental thing. Plus my partner definitely had leaks in his game that I was well aware of.

Belly you can spin it anyway you want. You can get axelwolf or some other more experienced player, to share that he could have played it more efficiently and more profitable, but that doesn't change a thing. The amount we made is what it is and has always been. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25k a piece (average), which for me was supplemental to my main advantage play activity of card counting and I was happy with that amount and arrangement.

[coach belly]

Is that an accurate summary of the math of an AP mail play?

As far as it being an accurate summary of an AP mail play, I suppose it could be

I'll take that as another "yes, coach...that is correct"

however, that would take a very special situation, or it would require multiple cards or take a long time over a lot of casinos. And don't ask me to guess how long that would take using only one or two cards, over how many casinos. I don't care to think about it.

I accept your expert opinion in that regard.

tewlj claimed to have generated $1.5M in FP over 8 years through VP.

Is it reasonable to expect a $800K loss on $3M coin-in on VP?

Would an AP on the mail play, run his coin-in on VP with that RTP?

[MDawg]

Truth time.

People tended to believe and admire KJ until he jumped the shark.

Fool us once, shame on you, fool us multiple times shame on us.

What the fuck are you talking about Axel?

Where do we start. Let's start with fake deaths.
I don't feel like listing everything in between that don't make sense. For example, 2 incredible hits from free play.

Broken arm's etc. etc.