Grochowski on "advantage video poker"

[mickeycrimm]

Blackjack players don't get W2Gs, do they? And unless they operate on the honor system 100% it is unlikely they will even report their table game wins. So, it would be hard to prove the claims of a table games player. By the way the only times I ever got a W2G at craps was after hitting all 6 on the Fire Bet for $5.

Cash game poker players don't get W2-G's either. The way the IRS gets them is lifestyle. They want to know how you are making $3000 a month in mortgage and car payments when you only make $30,000 a year. But the ones they have caught usually get a cut rate deal and make monthly payments to payoff their tax bill.

[mickeycrimm]

But to think that anyone is going to prove anything just to satisfy some goof-ball's curiosity on an anonymous message board, you are living in an alternative reality. NO ONE would do that.

Plenty have done it...we've seen W2Gs for machine play. Most notably arcimede$ did it...he provided his tax returns for several years.
It seemed pretty easy to do...I don't recall him or anyone else jumping through hoops, and I don't believe any wagers were involved.

It took a couple of years of Rob goading arci before he did it. And you remember what Rob said, if arci sends his returns to Alan then he (Rob) would do the same and send his returns to prove his claims of winning $100,000 a year at video poker. When arci finally got enough of it and announced that he was sending his returns to Alan, Rob started going "Hold on! Hold on! No wait! No, that wasn't the deal!! Back up! Back up! The returns won't prove anything! Yeah, that's it!!!! The returns won't prove anything!!" Rob never intended to send his returns to Alan. The whole time Rob was brow beating arci he figured arci was a weakling and would never send them in. Rob was bluffing the whole time. But it backfired on him. Arci did exactly what Rob figured he would never do, sent his returns to Alan. To this day Rob still hasn't sent his returns to Alan. This after repeatedly saying that he would. It's about as dishonorable as it gets.

Rob won't send his returns because he has something to hide. Like the fact that he didn't make near the money he said he did.

Blackhole should be after Rob to prove his claims because Rob can't even go a week without bragging about his highly successful video poker career in which he made a million dollars in ten years. Rob has been making this claim for years and has never proven any of it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually Rob made NO money at video poker. He said that himself with his writeoffs. If he really had a business and really wrote off everything in the win column then his business was a bust.

[blackhole]

Blackhole should be after Rob to prove his claims because Rob can't even go a week without bragging about his highly successful video poker career in which he made a million dollars in ten years. Rob has been making this claim for years and has never proven any of it.

First of all, I’m not after anyone. As far as I’m concerned Rob’s claims have been debunked a long time ago. Personally, I view him on this site as the class clown. His comments are hilarious and it’s obvious he knows better than most how impossible making a million dollars playing video poker or anything else truly is. This I assume is why he’s all over the alleged AP’s knowing firsthand how much shit their all full off.

No one is ever going to prove anything on these sites. I’m convinced the AP’s post their endless alleged shit for mental reasons.

The big time exposed AP’s for all to see and read (excluding poker) obviously are true, and usually are one hit wonders. But trying to convince me your making a full time secure living and future for you and your family, (if you’re not a loner, homeless, or whatever else) during the normal expected working years which could be well over 50, makes the chasing slot machines, finding flashing dealers, traveling all over the place for bonuses, cash backs, or whatever, makes that claim a very hard pill to swallow.

Why would any successful AP be on any gambling forum touting their achievements? Because it’s the only place they could try and convince other gamblers they’re not life time gambling losers like 99.9 percent truly are. They want you to believe there that gifted .1 %

[mickeycrimm]

Why would any successful AP be on any gambling forum touting their achievements? Because it’s the only place they could try and convince other gamblers they’re not life time gambling losers like 99.9 percent truly are. They want you to believe there that gifted .1%

I'm not trying to make you believe anything. Believe what you want to. I don't care. It has no bearing on what I do for a living. But I pretty much agree with your figure of maybe only .1% succeeding in AP. I just seen a government stat today where 93% of small businesses fail within the first 7 years. That's a lot of failure. If you tell me you are a restaurant owner should I just go ahead and figure you for a failure....or one who is about to fail?

The failure rate is high in the AP business just like it is in regular business but there are some of us who get through the window of opportunity.

[redietz]

If blackhole is to be believed, I don't know why he has an issue with me. I didn't mention anything about anything for more than 2000 posts and years, until Rob went on some condescending rant about being the only expert and professional and all that.

Blackhole's probably wrong on his million-dollar conjecture. I have no love of Bob Dancer, but it was (emphasis "was") possible in the 80's and early 90's to make a million dollars playing video poker. A million dollars isn't all that much money. The edges were there. Cashback and comps were originally the same for video poker as for slots. I think Dancer's book has some holes in the story, but people who started with much bigger bankrolls that his could have done some damage.

[Alan Mendelson]

You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines.

This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker.

The numbers are all relative.

If you are playing $1 video poker you're going to have a hard time making anything substantial. If you are playing 25-cent FPDW you're better off working for In 'N Out Burgers.

[kewlJ]

A million dollars isn't all that much money.

Boy you got that right, Redietz! No words were more true.

I suppose if someone hands you a million dollars, it is still a lot of money and you can do a lot with it. But earning (winning) a million dollars over a number of years, like 14 (me) and it doesn't amount to all that much. I own a modest home, and have a 6 figure BR (that hopefully will allow me to continue earning). That's about it. The rest went to living for those 14 years and I live pretty modestly, and of course Uncle Sammy's cut.

When I started out in 2004, I planned to make a million dollars. I had no idea whether I actually could or not. But I figured a million and I would be set for life. Ha! Having reached that milestone, I am probably set for the next couple years, but since I am hoping to live a little longer than 2 years....hardly for life. Revised plan......

[mickeycrimm]

You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines. This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker. The numbers are all relative.

Yes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.

[blackhole]

Let’s not just focus on a million dollars. Many of us here cashed out and went home throughout our lives totaling over a million dollars, yet, are still big losers. Of course, there are mega jackpot winners, winning several million dollars at once, and will never lose it all back.

My doubts are talking about grinding out an AP life that is good enough to support you and your family comfortably, to include housing, health insurance for all, college, enough security for retirement years, and all the other mandatory money commitments life naturally brings with it. Just a normal average life time calls for over several million dollars easily.

Considering trying to pull that type of mandatory money out of casinos today, not in the 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s while the casinos were catching up to AP’ing is a tough nut to crack today. Maybe there was 30 years being an AP was easier, but certainly not any longer. Even then it would have been difficult to secure a safe future for a family to last till death.

I’m certain a few people may have gotten lucky and pulled it off, but the amount of people trying to blow smoke up everyone's asses across these different forums is ludicrous.

And the people flapping their lips on radio and books about how they did it, or are still doing it, obviously need the additional income to stay afloat.

[kewlJ]

Many of us here cashed out and went home throughout our lives totaling over a million dollars, yet, are still big losers.

This is several times you have mentioned that you have done well in life. That's great! I am sincerely happy for you and anyone that has done well. AND....I don't require proof. I take you at your word.

I don't quite get the "yet are still big losers" part? Are you saying that you are losers when you play casinos games? Because there is nothing wrong with that. You enter a casino and play whatever game you play with a completely different objective than someone like me....enjoyment and entertainment. Again nothing wrong with that.

It like professional golfers and people who play for fun on the weekend. Both playing a round of golf. One has an objective of making a living. The other makes a living doing something else and when he pulls the clubs from his trunk on a Saturday morning, his objective is enjoyment. I don't understand why you are mixing the two up? Do the players playing a round of gold on a Saturday morning for entertainment and enjoyment, think it impossible for someone to play for a living?

[Alan Mendelson]

You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines. This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker. The numbers are all relative.

Yes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.

It's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces.

If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year.

And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you want to talk about benefits, most benefit packages are worth between 25% and 35% of salary. So an AP making $100,000 a year would need at least $25,000 more to buy a benefits package fitting a $100,000 salary.

[mickeycrimm]

You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines. This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker. The numbers are all relative.

Yes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.

It's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces. If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year. And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.

First, the 2nd 100K jackpot he supposedly hit was after he "retired" his system. Now, the quads are beside the point. In the 10 year period he used the system he only hit one royal at $25 denom. If you hit only one royal at that denom in ten years then you simply didn't play much at that level. 3rd, strategy shifts can greatly improve your chances on making straights, flushes, straight flushes and royals but there is not a lot you can do to improve your chances on full houses and quads. The chances remain about the same.

[mickeycrimm]

If you want to talk about benefits, most benefit packages are worth between 25% and 35% of salary. So an AP making $100,000 a year would need at least $25,000 more to buy a benefits package fitting a $100,000 salary.

I have no problem admitting I don't have a retirement account other than my bankroll. The only check I will be drawing is SS. The thing about the benefits packages is people who work for a living talk about it like its free. It's not free. Someone is paying for it. Your employer calculates into his expense of employing you and you have to work for it in order to get it. Who pays for the benefits of a drywall contractor or restaurant owner or tire dealer? Employers have to buy their own benefits. Nothing is free.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey... I have played maybe 300 hands of $25 video poker in my life. And I hit two $100K royals. One in Oct of 2016 and one in Oct of 2015. I was damn lucky.

I have known people who played video poker for a lifetime and NEVER hit a royal.

Then there is my girlfriend who plays 25-cent video poker about four nights a week at a bar/restaurant where she goes for karaoke and to meet friends for lunch or dinner, and she was DEALT two royals on two successive nights. (I posted the photos before.)

The point is this: how many royals you hit in your lifetime isn't a measure of anything.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you want to talk about benefits, most benefit packages are worth between 25% and 35% of salary. So an AP making $100,000 a year would need at least $25,000 more to buy a benefits package fitting a $100,000 salary.

I have no problem admitting I don't have a retirement account other than my bankroll. The only check I will be drawing is SS. The thing about the benefits packages is people who work for a living talk about it like its free. It's not free. Someone is paying for it. Your employer calculates into his expense of employing you and you have to work for it in order to get it. Who pays for the benefits of a drywall contractor or restaurant owner or tire dealer? Employers have to buy their own benefits. Nothing is free.

As a matter of fact, I am now paying for additional pension benefits because for the last 11 years I've been in the Infomercial business. Previously I was an employee of TV and radio stations and they paid for my benefits. Now, I can see directly how the benefits package comes out of what would have been additional pay for me.

But to be 100% honest -- I want to pay for the benefits package because I couldn't afford it on my own without being part of the union's plan.

[RS__]

Mickey... I have played maybe 300 hands of $25 video poker in my life. And I hit two $100K royals. One in Oct of 2016 and one in Oct of 2015. I was damn lucky.

The new "18 yo's in a row".

[blackhole]

This is several times you have mentioned that you have done well in life.


Do the players playing a round of gold on a Saturday morning for entertainment and enjoyment, think it impossible for someone to play for a living?

First of all, no one is bragging about doing well in life. Funny how you want to convert cashing out a million dollars throughout a life time of visiting casinos into somehow meaning your status is special. The past conversations were specifically about a million dollars is the only reason that came up. Any educated person realizes that the value of a million dollars to one person could have the same value of what a 100k might mean to someone else. It’s the capitalist way of life.

Cashing out and going home with 5 or 10K a few times a year is easy to do, along with giving it all back plus some. Doing that over a 40-year period is far, far, away from bragging. You just need to make argument and absurd analogy’s regardless what I say simply in an attempt to justify and avoid the mandatory financial facts of the cost of living today.

You must be a special type of BJ player, especially when most AP BJ players feel the belt has been tighten so much it’s no longer worth the effort. With odd changes, amount of decks, the cuts, shuffling machines, pit and endless new surveillance knowledge (to include face recognition technology) totaling focusing on cheaters and AP players, your still capable of pulling down for over ten years already, working the same different casinos in Vegas, a decent salary. Now, that’s a good for you story, and one to be proud of. I won’t be here to see how this career ends, but you have at least another 30 or 40 years to go at your confirmed rate of income. By the way, I wish you nothing but good luck.

At least your claims of success playing BJ for profit is nothing new. It’s been proven several times in the past with teams and what not. Doing it today certainly is much tougher since the casinos are squeezing your nuts much tighter. It’s the slot games, video poker, promotions, cash backs, flashing dealers, comps., traveling all over the country cashing in on dumb casino operators that raises much doubt. Being able to support a family for a lifetime doing that is extremely hard to believe.

[redietz]

I mentioned this back in November, but inexpensive glasses have been designed that defeat facial recognition software. They look a bit new agey, but do not look like something out of Star Trek. Not only that, certain designs can trick the software into thinking it's looking at a famous person. I believe Milla Jovovich had about a 75% id rate, depending on who was wearing them.

KJ is too smart to argue with someone about the efficacy of facial recognition software.

I tried to post a link, but it just sends you to the archive. It was in New Scientist 1 November 2016.

Note: I got the number wrong, Milla had a 90% fool rate.

Note #2: It occurred to me, after spending a couple of minutes thinking about it, that the prevalence of clubs with techno dance music has provided the perfect cover for defeating facial recognition systems to this point. If you're young-ish (I may be guilty of ageism here), funky glasses, reflective devices, and particular kinds of makeup were the previous mainstays for beating facial recognition systems. If every casino had a big club, seems like you'd blend okay.