Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
Win goals work fine when you reach them. I have high win goals. Rob chastised me for not walking when I hit the $25 straight flush. Well, the payoff on the straight flush and the subsequent AAAA on the $5 bonus machine (about $8K total) had not yet reached my win goal.

When I took my $4K royals on recent visit and took them to play $5 Bonus Rob chastised me again. But $4K is not my win goal.

When I play VP my win goal is $20K or more. Winning $4k or $8k only gives me more bullets to keep me firing.
Which serves as a good example to what I've been telling you. If you set low win goals you will hit them more often and leave a winner more often. However, with higher win goals you'll win less but occasionally hit a big win. Overall the average return over many sessions converges on your ER. The amount you end up winning or losing is that ER times the total amount you have played.

This is really simple math. Most of it is grade school level. The only complicated math is determining the probabilities which is useful in computing bankroll requirements but has very little value otherwise.